PLEASE NOTE: They have been submitted for DEFAC ... - Delaware

PLEASE NOTE: The projections contained in this package are NOT official. They have been submitted for DEFAC's consideration.

Final projections may differ based on the outcome of DEFAC's deliberations.

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

June 17, 2020

General Fund DEFAC FORECAST

SUMMARY

DEFAC FORECAST SUMMARY

$ Amounts in Millions

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

June-20

Coronavirus drives historic contraction in US Outlook is extremely uncertain

GDP US Employment DE Employment

Average FY17-19

2.5 1.6 0.9

Annual % Change

FY 20

FY 21

FY 22

-2.1

-4.0

6.7

-2.0

-3.0

5.3

-2.3

-2.9

5.4

REVENUE UPDATE

NET GENERAL FUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

FY 19 FY20 (Est) FY21 (Est) FY22 (Est)

$4,591.9 $4,494.3 $4,535.4 $4,553.4

-0.3%

-2.1%

0.9%

0.4%

MAJOR CHANGES SINCE LAST MEETING

Limited Partnerships & LLC's Personal Income Tax Corporation Income Tax

TOTAL CHANGE

FY 20 $26.0 $21.5 $17.1

$78.8

Personal Income Tax Dividends and Interest Other Refunds

TOTAL CHANGE

FY 21 $18.8 ($8.4) $1.3

$11.2

EXPENDITURE UPDATE

FY 20 Estimate $4,495.1

COMPARISON VERSUS DEFAC's last meeting FY 2019 Actual Expenditures

$ Change ($56.4) $100.8

% Change -1.2% 2.3%

Appropriation Limit

FY 21 BUDGET OUTLOOK

$4,560.2

COMPARISON VERSUS DEFAC's last meeting Since Governor's FY 21 Recommended Budget Current Budget (FY 20)

$ Change % Change

$88.2

2.0%

($403.4)

-8.1%

($193.1)

-4.1%

General Fund

Balance & Appropriations Worksheet

FY 2020 EXPENDITURES

Total Spending Authority

Less: Continuing Appropriations & Encumbrances from FY 2020

$5,082.8 ($450.1)

Less: Reversions

($137.6)

Total Expenditures

$4,495.1

Budget

FY 2020 BUDGET

$4,451.9

Grants

Supplemental

Total Appropriations Plus: Continuing Appropriations & Encumbrances from Prior Years

Total Spending Authority

$55.1 $246.3 $4,753.3 $329.6 $5,082.8

Balance and Appropriations Worksheet

June 2020 FY 2020 BALANCES

Total Expenditures

$4,495.1

vs. FY 2020 Revenues

Operating Balance

Prior Year Cash Balance Less: Budget Stabilization Fund (82 Del Law c 64; HB 225, Section 77)*

4,494.3 (0.8)

947.5 ($126.3)

Cumulative Cash Balance Less: Continuing Appropriations & Encumbrances from FY 2020

Less: Budgetary Reserve Account

Unencumbered Cash Balance 6/30

820.4 (450.1) ($252.4) $117.9

FY 2021 APPROPRIATION LIMITS

FY 2021 Revenue Estimate

$4,535.4

Unencumbered Cash Balance from FY 2020

$117.9

100% Appropriation Limit

$4,653.3

98% Appropriation Limit

$4,560.2

Prior 98% Appropriation Limit

$4,472.0

Increase (Decrease) from Prior Meeting Sept. 2019 98% Appropriation Limit Increase (Decrease) from September 2019

$88.2 $4,763.3 ($203.1)

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