High Schools and Students’ Initial Colleges and Majors

NATIONAL CENTER for ANALYSIS of LONGITUDINAL DATA in EDUCATION RESEARCH

TRACKING EVERY STUDENT'S LEARNING EVERY YEAR A program of research by the American Institutes for Research with Duke University, Northwestern University, Stanford University, University of Missouri-Columbia, University of Texas at Dallas, and University of Washington

High Schools and Students' Initial

Colleges and Majors

Rajeev Darolia Cory Koedel

WORKING PAPER 165 ? April 2018

High Schools and Students' Initial Colleges and Majors

Rajeev Darolia University of Missouri

Cory Koedel University of Missouri/CALDER

Contents

Acknowledgements......................................................................................ii Abstracts..................................................................................................iii 1. Introduction...........................................................................................1 2. Context and Data......................................................................................3 3. Defining Students' Academic Indices and University-Major Quality........................6 4. Variation in University-by-Major Cell Quality and Student Sorting........................12 5. The Role of High Schools in Student Sorting..................................................13 6. Results........................ ......................................................................15 7. Robustness.............................................................................................................17 8. Extensions............................................................................................19 9. Conclusion..........................................................................................22 References................................................................................................25 Figures & Tables..........................................................................................28 Appendix A..............................................................................................40

Acknowledgements

We thank the Missouri Department of Higher Education for providing access to data and gratefully acknowledge research support from the National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER) funded through grant #R305C120008 to American Institutes for Research from the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. We thank session participants at Purdue University and the APPAM, CALDER, and AEFP conferences for valuable feedback, in particular Mark Long and Carrie Conaway. The usual disclaimers apply. CALDER working papers have not undergone final formal review and should be cited as working papers. They are intended to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in these papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders. CALDER ? American Institutes for Research 1000 Thomas Jefferson Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20007 202-403-5796 ?

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High Schools and Students' Initial Colleges and Majors Rajeev Darolia, Cory Koedel CALDER Working Paper No. 165 April 2018

Abstract

We use statewide administrative data from Missouri to examine the explanatory power of high schools over student sorting to colleges and majors at 4-year public universities. We develop a "preparation and persistence index" (PPI) for each university-by-major cell in the Missouri system that captures dimensions of selectivity and rigor and allows for a detailed investigation of sorting. Our analysis shows that students' high schools predict the quality of the initial university, as measured by PPI, conditional on their own academic preparation, and that students from lowerSES high schools systematically enroll at lower-PPI universities. However, high schools offer little explanatory power over major placements within universities.

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