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Last Gasp or Crossing the Chasm? The Case of the Carburetor Technological DiscontinuityNathan R. Furr*Marriott School of ManagementBrigham Young UniversityProvo, UTTel: (801) 422-1814e-mail: nfurr@byu.eduDaniel C. SnowMarriott School of ManagementBrigham Young UniversityProvo, UTTel: (801) 422-2409e-mail: dsnow@byu.eduAug 15, 2012Under review at Strategic Management JournalKeywords: technology strategy; strategic change; strategic renewal; industry evolution; technology evolution*Authors listed in alphabetical orderAlthough technological discontinuities are often described in terms of a rapid transition from one technological generation to the next, we reexamine this conclusion in light of the tendency of technology to experience a last gasp—a sudden leap in performance—when threatened. Although the last gasp pattern has been suggested in prior research, it has not been sufficiently explored empirically. In this paper, we attempt to validate the presence of a last gasp and also suggest the sources of such a last gasp beyond prior explanations that incumbents simply try harder. Specifically, we explore how incumbent technology choices influence the emergence of a last gasp as well as the impact of the last gasp on the technological discontinuity and incumbent performance. We test these assumptions among the full population of carburetor manufacturers during a technological discontinuity as the industry transitioned to electronic fuel injection. We find evidence of a last gasp but, contrary to prior assumptions that the last gasp comes from incumbents ‘trying harder,’ we find a much more nuanced story of why extant technologies demonstrate a sudden performance leap. More importantly, we observe a unique pattern of incumbents exploring hybrid technologies that both contribute to the last gasp but also form the bridge for incumbents to cross to the next technical generation. These findings contribute to the technology strategy, innovation, and organization change literatures.IntroductionFirms face many strategic threats, but technological discontinuities are some of the most profoundly challenging. In the canonical description of technology discontinuities, existing firms respond rigidly to such technology changes and are swept aside, sometimes even blindsided, by new generations of technology PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5IZW5kZXJzb248L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4xOTkwPC9ZZWFy
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Christensen and Bower, 1996; Henderson and Clark, 1990). However, firms face significant uncertainty in the technology contests that constitute the transition from one technical generation to the next, and their outcomes are not always certain ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Adner</Author><Year>2012</Year><RecNum>1477</RecNum><DisplayText>(Adner and Kapoor, 2012)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1477</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1477</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Adner, Ron</author><author>Kapoor, Rahul</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Innovation Ecosystems and the Pace of Substitution: Re-examining Technology S-curves</title><secondary-title>Working Paper</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Working Paper</full-title></periodical><dates><year>2012</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Adner and Kapoor, 2012). For example, although some industry observers predicted that hybrid electric vehicles would replace the more inefficient combustion engine, when threatened by the new technology, automobile manufacturers managed to squeeze so much extra fuel efficiency from the seemingly technically exhausted combustion engine that advantage of hybrid vehicles over ‘old’ technologies may be in question ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Naughton</Author><Year>2012</Year><RecNum>1497</RecNum><DisplayText>(Naughton, 2012)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1497</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1497</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Magazine Article">19</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Naughton, Keith</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Hybrid's Unlikely Rival: Plain Old Cars</title><secondary-title>Bloomberg Businessweek</secondary-title></titles><number>Feb 23</number><dates><year>2012</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Naughton, 2012). Similarly, although silicon semiconductors have been threatened for decades by gallium arsenide, silicon semiconductor firms have somehow improved performance of the ‘old’ technology enough to defer the threat, even though silicon seems to have exhausted the very limits of its capability. In each of these cases, in the face of a threat, incumbent actions improved the technical trajectory of an older technology and allowed incumbents to collectively stop, or at least significantly delay, a threatening technology transition.The observation that incumbents often fight back raises significant questions for the study of technology discontinuities. For instance, existing literature highlights the tendency of firms to focus on existing technology when threatened by a technical transition PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Ucmlwc2FzPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MjAwMDwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Benner and Tushman, 2002; Gilbert, 2005; Tripsas and Gavetti, 2000). According to this view, incumbents focus on their existing technology because they are constrained by capability, resource, and cognitive inertia that limits their willingness and ability to respond to a threatening technology by leaping to the next generation PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Ucmlwc2FzPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MTk5NzwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Ucmlwc2FzPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MTk5NzwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Rosenbloom, 2000; Sull, Tedlow, and Rosenbloom, 1997; Tripsas, 1997b). While certainly an accurate description in many respects, such ex post observations have led many to conclude that incumbent efforts in extant technology are the death throes of rigid incumbents. Yet there may be rational reasons, ex ante, that incumbents focus on their existing technology beyond the traditional capability, cognition, and market power explanations. Namely, in the light of uncertainty before a technology transition occurs, incumbents fight back because, as in all previous threats they have faced and beaten back, they expect that their actions will affect the technology trajectory and, thus, their survival chances.Indeed, early observers of technology transitions noted not only the tendency of incumbents to fight back, but also the surprising effects such actions have on seemingly exhausted technologies. For example, in observing technology transitions, such as the shift from ice harvesting to mechanical refrigeration or from sailing ships to steam ships, researchers have observed that not only do firms fight back ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Utterback</Author><Year>1996</Year><RecNum>361</RecNum><DisplayText>(Harley, 1988; Utterback, 1996)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>361</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">361</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Utterback, James M.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation: How Companies Can Seize Opportunities in the Face of Technological Change (Paperback)</title><alt-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</alt-title></titles><alt-periodical><full-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</full-title><abbr-1>Harvard Business School Press Books</abbr-1></alt-periodical><dates><year>1996</year></dates><pub-location>Boston</pub-location><publisher>Harvard Business School Press</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Harley</Author><Year>1988</Year><RecNum>1481</RecNum><record><rec-number>1481</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1481</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Harley, Charles K.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740-1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed</title><secondary-title>Journal of Economic History</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Journal of Economic History</full-title></periodical><pages>851-876</pages><volume>48</volume><number>4</number><dates><year>1988</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Harley, 1988; Utterback, 1996), but that rather than inducing irrelevant inertial efforts, such threats ‘appear to induce vigorous and imaginative responses’ ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Rosenberg</Author><Year>1976</Year><RecNum>1475</RecNum><Suffix>: 205</Suffix><DisplayText>(Rosenberg, 1976: 205)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1475</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1475</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Rosenberg, Nathan</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Perspectives on Technology</title></titles><dates><year>1976</year></dates><pub-location>New York</pub-location><publisher>Cambridge University Press</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Rosenberg, 1976: 205). Researchers have suggested that incumbent actions lead to an unexpected improvement in the rate of performance improvement—a ‘last gasp’—that reshapes the technology trajectory PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Gb3N0ZXI8L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4xOTg2PC9ZZWFyPjxS
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Foster, 1986; Henderson, 1995; Tripsas, 1997b). Such a last gasp can have significant implications for firm and industry evolution and, more importantly, an incumbent’s interpretations of their actions in the face of threat. In cases such as the silicon semiconductor or even the incandescent lightbulb, a last gasp may forestall competitors for decades or even indefinitely. The last gasp is not a panacea, however, as it may provide incumbents false hope that by fighting they can improve their technology sufficiently to defeat a threatening technology, leading to the observations of inertia and failure previously described in the literature.Therefore, the last gasp has important strategic implications for incumbents, shaping whether and when incumbents should respond to a technology threat—whether to fight a new threat, retreat from a threat, or leap to the next generation ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Adner</Author><Year>2010</Year><RecNum>1482</RecNum><DisplayText>(Adner and Snow, 2010c)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1482</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1482</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Adner, Ron</author><author>Snow, Daniel</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Old technology responses to new technology threats: demand heterogeneity and technology retreats</title><secondary-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</full-title></periodical><pages>1655-1675</pages><volume>19</volume><number>5</number><dates><year>2010</year><pub-dates><date>October 1, 2010</date></pub-dates></dates><urls><related-urls><url>;(Adner and Snow, 2010c). In this paper, we attempt to answer questions related to the last gasp that affect incumbent strategic responses to a technology threat. First, although the last gasp may has been suggested by several technology and strategy scholars PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5IZW5kZXJzb248L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4xOTk1PC9ZZWFy
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Adner et al., 2012; Henderson, 1995; Tripsas, 1997b), the phenomenon of a last gasp has received little empirical validation. Second, we know relatively little about the sources of the last gasp, other than suggestions that, when threatened, incumbents simply try harder ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Utterback</Author><Year>1996</Year><RecNum>361</RecNum><DisplayText>(Utterback, 1996)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>361</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">361</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Utterback, James M.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation: How Companies Can Seize Opportunities in the Face of Technological Change (Paperback)</title><alt-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</alt-title></titles><alt-periodical><full-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</full-title><abbr-1>Harvard Business School Press Books</abbr-1></alt-periodical><dates><year>1996</year></dates><pub-location>Boston</pub-location><publisher>Harvard Business School Press</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Utterback, 1996). Finally, there has been limited attention to the performance implications of the last gasp: both at the level of the technology trajectory and the level of the firm. We attempt to address these gaps by examining a technology transition at the time of threat and, using a data rich industry setting, provide some quantitative validation of a last gasp. Third, beyond the existing explanation that last gasps are the result of simply trying harder, we suggest two additional sources of a potential last gasp. Specifically, we hypothesize that firms take many actions—efforts to innovate, reconfigure, and recombine—that improve the existing technological trajectory and lead to a last gasp of technology performance. Finally, we conduct an exploratory analysis to examine the performance implications of a last gasp, both at the industry level, by estimating the effect of a last gasp on a technology transition, and at the firm level, by examining the effect of technology choices on incumbent survival. We examine these questions quantitatively in a unique data set capturing the population of passenger automobile carburetor manufacturers over two decades during which incumbents were threatened by a new substitute technology—electronic fuel injection (EFI). Carburetors represent an ideal setting in which to test the tendency and effects of incumbent efforts to fight a threat because carburetor manufacturers had been threatened by potential replacement technologies in the past, but incumbent efforts had forestalled a technology transition (carburetors had prevailed against wick carburetors, the rotating brush carburetors, catalytic carburetors, vaporizers, and mechanical fuel injectors, among others). EFI technologies posed an uncertain threat because of their high cost and delicate nature, leading many carburetor manufacturers to fight back, which allows us to observe the relationship between incumbent actions and any potential last gasp. In addition, because we have detailed data on a critical carburetor performance indicator, we can observe the effect of incumbent actions on the technology trajectory. In the empirical analysis, we find that incumbents were surprisingly vigorous in their response to the threat of EFI, leading to a significant last gasp—a sudden leap in performance that does not match the canonical S-curve of technology evolution ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Foster</Author><Year>1986</Year><RecNum>246</RecNum><DisplayText>(Foster, 1986)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>246</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">246</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book Section">5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Foster, R.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>The S-curve: A New Forecasting Tool</title><secondary-title>Innovation: The Attacker's Advantage</secondary-title></titles><pages>88-111</pages><keywords><keyword>S-curve</keyword><keyword>technology development</keyword><keyword>Technical change</keyword><keyword>Technology change</keyword><keyword>technological paradigms</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1986</year></dates><pub-location>New York</pub-location><publisher>Simon and Schuster</publisher><label>Innovation and Change</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Foster, 1986). While prior literature has observed this pattern qualitatively, we provide one of the first, robust empirical validations of this phenomenon. Furthermore, whereas prior literature has largely ignored what incumbent actions contribute to a last gasp (suggesting that the last gasp results from simply ‘trying harder’), we observe that trying harder contributes to the last gasp in only a subset of cases. Instead, the combined efforts of innovation, reconfiguration, and recombination contribute to the last gasp, but in ways that depend on the technology choices of individual firms. Finally, we provide some of the first empirical validation of the performance implications of a last gasp. At the industry level, we estimate the rate of substitution of EFI versus carburetors and find results that suggest the carburetor’s last gasp deferred the EFI’s eventual victory by approximately two years. At the firm level, we find that the technology choices made by individual incumbents reshape the type of ‘last gasp’ they experience and also their survival chances. Specifically, while no incumbents made the leap directly to EFI, a subset of incumbents engaged in a unique type of action: the creation of a hybrid between the old and new technical generation. Although prior literature has suggested such hybrids may be a manifestation of organizational dysfunction PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Ucmlwc2FzPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MTk5NzwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Christensen et al., 1996; Tripsas, 1997b), we find that hybrids both make a significant contribution to the last gasp and, at least in the case of EFI, may act as a stepping stone for surviving the technological discontinuity. In fact, only firms that focused primarily on hybrids actually survived to the next technical generation. These results have significant implications for our theories of strategy and organization in technology settings. First, we provide evidence of a last gasp, which contributes to the enrichment of our understanding of industry and technology evolution PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5BZG5lcjwvQXV0aG9yPjxZZWFyPjIwMTI8L1llYXI+PFJl
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Adner et al., 2012; Anderson and Tushman, 1990; Henderson, 1995). Second, by showing how a broader range of incumbent responses contribute to the last gasp, we enrich the growing body of research on incumbent responses to technology threat, showing a multiplicity of important incumbent actions in the face of threat that affect competition and survival PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Ucmlwc2FzPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MjAwOTwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Agarwal and Gort, 2002; Hill and Rothaermel, 2003; Lavie, 2006; Tripsas, 2009). Third, in providing some of the first detailed evidence of how the last gasp affects firm and industry performance, we enrich our understanding of technology strategy. By showing how a last gasp can defer a technology transition, we move beyond the observation that technology transitions can take time, to highlight specific innovation dynamics that affect the nature and timing of incumbent responses PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5IZW5kZXJzb248L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4xOTk1PC9ZZWFy
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Adner et al., 2012; Adner et al., 2010c; Cohen and Tripsas, 2012; Eggers, 2012; Henderson, 1995). Furthermore, by showing the crucial role hybrids played in leaping to the next generation, we help resolve a debate in the literature about hybrids while suggesting rich avenues for future research. Indeed, hybrids represent an understudied but potentially important artifact during eras of ferment, in industries that can accommodate hybrids. Finally, this research helps recharacterize the stereotype of inertial incumbents, demonstrating vigorous incumbent responses that illustrate another reason that incumbents fight back in addition to existing capability and cognitive explanations—namely, their actions have an effect. TheoryAlthough the organization and strategy literatures address issues of change and renewal PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5BZ2Fyd2FsPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MjAwOTwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Agarwal and Helfat, 2009; Brown and Eisenhardt, 1997; Eisenhardt and Martin, 2000), responding to technological discontinuities represents one of the most challenging events in the life of a firm PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5HaWxiZXJ0PC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MjAwNjwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Gilbert, 2006; Lavie, 2006). When such threats emerge, prior research suggests that incumbents focus on existing technology because of cognitive PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5LYXBsYW48L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4yMDAzPC9ZZWFyPjxS
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Benner, 2009; Christensen et al., 1996; Thomke and Kuemmerle, 2002). While such observations are often accurate, the rigidity explanation has largely led to the dismissal of incumbent actions as doomed and irrelevant. However, incumbent efforts focusing on extant technology may not always be irrelevant. Indeed, rigidity interpretations are often made ex post a technology transition and, therefore, overlook the fact that ex ante technology transitions are often characterized by significant uncertainty. The emergence of a threatening technology, promising though it may be, is not guaranteed to spell the end of the old technology for many reasons PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5BZG5lcjwvQXV0aG9yPjxZZWFyPjIwMTA8L1llYXI+PFJl
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Adner and Kapoor, 2010a; Rosenkopf and Tushman, 1998). First, it is often unclear whether the technology can overcome the associated technology risks to become a viable substitute ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Adner</Author><Year>2010</Year><RecNum>1289</RecNum><DisplayText>(Adner<style face="italic"> et al.</style>, 2010a)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1289</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1289</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Map">20</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Adner, Ron</author><author>Kapoor, Rahul</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Value creation in innovation ecosystems: how the structure of technological interdependence affects firm performance in new technology generations</title><secondary-title>Strategic Management Journal</secondary-title><alt-title>Strategic Management Journal</alt-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></periodical><alt-periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></alt-periodical><pages>306-333</pages><volume>31</volume><keywords><keyword>TECHNOLOGICAL innovations</keyword><keyword>VERTICAL integration</keyword><keyword>STRATEGIC planning</keyword><keyword>COMPETITIVE advantage</keyword><keyword>MANAGEMENT science</keyword><keyword>LITHOGRAPHY</keyword><keyword>business ecosystem</keyword><keyword>complements</keyword><keyword>first mover advantage</keyword><keyword>semiconductor lithography</keyword><keyword>technological change</keyword></keywords><dates><year>2010</year></dates><work-type>Article</work-type><urls><related-urls><url>;(Adner et al., 2010a). For example, consider home-sized nuclear power plants from the 1950s or turbine-powered cars of the 1960s, which promised to outperform existing technologies but failed to do so. Second, even when technologies do materialize, they often do not cross the price/performance threshold to displace extant technology ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Anderson</Author><Year>1990</Year><RecNum>682</RecNum><DisplayText>(Anderson<style face="italic"> et al.</style>, 1990)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>682</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">682</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Anderson, Philip</author><author>Tushman, Michael</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Technological Discontinuities and Dominant Designs: A Cyclical Model of Technological Change</title><secondary-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</secondary-title><alt-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</alt-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</full-title></periodical><alt-periodical><full-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</full-title></alt-periodical><pages>604-633</pages><volume>35</volume><number>4</number><keywords><keyword>punctuated equilibrium</keyword><keyword>adaptation</keyword><keyword>Complementary assets</keyword><keyword>discontinuous change</keyword><keyword>innovation</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1990</year></dates><publisher>Administrative Science Quarterly</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Anderson et al., 1990). For example, consider composite airframes pioneered (at vast expense) in the 1970s that are just today becoming economically viable substitutes for aluminum ones. Finally, even when technology transitions do begin to occur, there are often questions of which market niches will be replaced and which will be left untouched. For example, consider the parallel operation of hybrid and combustion engines for well over a decade or the parallel existence of online media portals and newspapers as customer niches retain their preference for one technology over another ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Adner</Author><Year>2010</Year><RecNum>1474</RecNum><DisplayText>(Adner and Snow, 2010d)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1474</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="erxszsr2map5s5epfz8veat4pwwzzpavw952">1474</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Adner, Ron</author><author>Snow, Daniel C.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Old technology responses to new technology threats: Demand heterogeneity and technology retreats</title><secondary-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</full-title></periodical><pages>20</pages><volume>19</volume><number>5</number><section>1655</section><dates><year>2010</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Adner and Snow, 2010d).In light of such uncertainty before a transition occurs, when threatened, incumbents may also choose to focus on extant technology because they believe they can defer or even defeat the threat. Indeed, prior observers have noted that when threatened, the trajectory of an extant technology can exhibit a surprising and unexpected leap in performance uncharacteristic of the traditional S-curve pattern described in prior literature ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Utterback</Author><Year>1996</Year><RecNum>361</RecNum><DisplayText>(Utterback, 1996)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>361</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">361</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Utterback, James M.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation: How Companies Can Seize Opportunities in the Face of Technological Change (Paperback)</title><alt-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</alt-title></titles><alt-periodical><full-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</full-title><abbr-1>Harvard Business School Press Books</abbr-1></alt-periodical><dates><year>1996</year></dates><pub-location>Boston</pub-location><publisher>Harvard Business School Press</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Utterback, 1996). 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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Barney, 1986; Porter, 1980; Rumelt, 1984).Nonetheless, economic historians and innovation scholars have observed such surprising leaps in sailing ships ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Gilfillan</Author><Year>1935</Year><RecNum>1498</RecNum><DisplayText>(Gilfillan, 1935; Harley, 1988)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1498</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1498</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Gilfillan, S. Colum</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Inventing the Ship: A Study of the Inventions Made in Her History Between Floating Log and Rotorship</title></titles><dates><year>1935</year></dates><pub-location>Chicago</pub-location><publisher>Follett</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Harley</Author><Year>1988</Year><RecNum>1481</RecNum><record><rec-number>1481</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1481</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Harley, Charles K.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740-1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed</title><secondary-title>Journal of Economic History</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Journal of Economic History</full-title></periodical><pages>851-876</pages><volume>48</volume><number>4</number><dates><year>1988</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Gilfillan, 1935; Harley, 1988), typesetters ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Tripsas</Author><Year>2008</Year><RecNum>1499</RecNum><DisplayText>(Tripsas, 2008)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1499</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1499</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Tripsas, Mary</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Customer Preference Discontinuities: A Trigger for Radical Technological Change</title><secondary-title>Managerial and Decision Economics</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Managerial and Decision Economics</full-title></periodical><pages>79-97</pages><volume>29</volume><number>March-April</number><dates><year>2008</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Tripsas, 2008), semiconductor equipment ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Henderson</Author><Year>1995</Year><RecNum>1474</RecNum><DisplayText>(Henderson, 1995)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1474</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1474</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Henderson, Rebecca</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Of life cycles real and imaginary: The unexpectedly long old age of optical lithography</title><secondary-title>Research Policy</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Research Policy</full-title></periodical><pages>631-643</pages><volume>24</volume><number>4</number><dates><year>1995</year></dates><isbn>0048-7333</isbn><urls><related-urls><url>(94)00790-x</electronic-resource-num></record></Cite></EndNote>(Henderson, 1995), alkali ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Rothwell</Author><Year>1985</Year><RecNum>1500</RecNum><DisplayText>(Rothwell and Zegveld, 1985)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1500</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1500</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Rothwell, Roy</author><author>Zegveld, Walter</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Reindustrialization and Technology</title></titles><dates><year>1985</year></dates><pub-location>Armonk, NY</pub-location><publisher>M.E. Sharpe</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Rothwell and Zegveld, 1985), and ice harvesting ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Utterback</Author><Year>1996</Year><RecNum>361</RecNum><DisplayText>(Utterback, 1996)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>361</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">361</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Utterback, James M.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation: How Companies Can Seize Opportunities in the Face of Technological Change (Paperback)</title><alt-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</alt-title></titles><alt-periodical><full-title>Harvard Business School Press Books</full-title><abbr-1>Harvard Business School Press Books</abbr-1></alt-periodical><dates><year>1996</year></dates><pub-location>Boston</pub-location><publisher>Harvard Business School Press</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Utterback, 1996), labeling such unexpected leaps ‘last gasps.’ For example, both Tripsas (2008) and Henderson (1995) qualitatively observed that incumbents were able to extend the life of extant technologies in surprising ways before a technological discontinuity and even afterward. Modern examples of technologies exhibiting a performance improvement that extends their life include CISC processor architecture, incandescent lightbulbs, steel bicycle frame materials, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, silicon semiconductors, and many other technologies that appear to exhibit a sudden burst in performance when threatened. Although last gasps have been qualitatively observed across many industries, rarely have they received significant empirical validation. Therefore, we hypothesize that when threatened by a new technology, the technical trajectory of an industry may exhibit a last gasp, or sudden leap in performance beyond the expected technology trajectory improvement rate.Hypothesis 1 (H1): When threatened by a new technology generation, the technology trajectory of an existing technology may exhibit a last gasp (a sudden increase in product performance in excess of existing technology trajectory).There may be many reasons for a last gasp, although the predominant explanation to date has been that when threatened, incumbents simply ‘try harder,’ leading to an unexpected leap in the technology trajectory. While such a performance leap may seem counterintuitive from the competitive and technology evolution standpoints, there are both economic and organizational reasons for incumbents to try harder. From an economic perspective, incumbents locked in fierce competition at the margin may have little incentive to invest in improving existing technologies; but when threatened by substitution, incumbents may engage in innovation projects that may have been economically infeasible when competing for marginal cost advantage. However, such projects suddenly become feasible in the face of the devaluation of existing assets (for a review of the economic logic of investment in innovation, see Henderson, 1993, or Tripsas, 1997). In other words, innovation efforts previously not justified by a marginal innovation return may seem reasonable if they could preempt substitution, leading incumbents to invest in innovations they may have once ignored PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5IZW5kZXJzb248L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4xOTkzPC9ZZWFy
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Henderson, 1993; Martin and Mitchell, 1998; Mitchell, 1991). In more practical terms, carburetor producers battling competitors on cost may not be able to justify the expense of certain innovation improvements but when threatened by total replacement, the investments become reasonable in the face of losing the entire asset base.From an organization perspective, incumbents locked in fierce competition among similar competitors may have cognitive and organizational impediments that lead them to overlook innovations that could potentially increase technology performance PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Qb3JhYzwvQXV0aG9yPjxZZWFyPjE5OTU8L1llYXI+PFJl
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (March and Simon, 1958; Thompson, 1967). Therefore, when threatened, organizations may suddenly recognize innovations that were previously unseen. For example, Utterback (1996) described how when threatened by mechanical refrigeration, ice harvesters switched from removing ice with horses to tractors—an innovation within reach but unseen until threatened with substitution. Similarly, when threatened, organizations, may consider alternatives that were previously ignored. For example, in a study of change in the medical imaging industry, Martin and Mitchell ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite ExcludeAuth="1"><Author>Martin</Author><Year>1998</Year><RecNum>720</RecNum><DisplayText>(1998)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>720</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">720</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Martin, Xavier</author><author>Mitchell, Will</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>The Influence of Local Search and Performance Heuristics</title><secondary-title>Research Policy</secondary-title><alt-title>Research Policy</alt-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Research Policy</full-title></periodical><alt-periodical><full-title>Research Policy</full-title></alt-periodical><pages>753</pages><volume>26</volume><number>7/8</number><keywords><keyword>innovation</keyword><keyword>product innovation</keyword><keyword>PRODUCT design</keyword><keyword>dominant design</keyword><keyword>entry</keyword><keyword>entrant</keyword><keyword>new product development</keyword><keyword>local search</keyword><keyword>search</keyword><keyword>threat perception</keyword><keyword>business dynamics</keyword><keyword>Competitive interaction</keyword><keyword>industry development</keyword><keyword>industry change</keyword><keyword>product design</keyword><keyword>dissertation</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1998</year></dates><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(1998) observed that incumbents tended to introduce new product designs only when threatened by declining market share or substitute product design. In support of this view, Tripsas ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite ExcludeAuth="1"><Author>Tripsas</Author><Year>2009</Year><RecNum>1251</RecNum><DisplayText>(2009)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1251</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1251</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Tripsas, Mary</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Technology, Identity, and Inertia Through the Lens of "The Digital Photography Company"</title><secondary-title>Organization Science</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Organization Science</full-title></periodical><pages>441-460</pages><volume>20</volume><number>2</number><dates><year>2009</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(2009) noted that the digital photography company Linco failed to recognize the opportunities in the parallel flash drive market until their business began to be threatened by their competitor, Sysco, who introduced a flash drive product. Even when thinking of organizations more broadly, threat can lead to the recognition of innovation that may have been previously overlooked. For example, in 1870, when the City of Paris was suddenly threatened with invasion for the first time in centuries, despite France itself having been engaged in a war for almost a millennium, citizens suddenly came up with so many innovations that the city had to establish a scientific committee to process the burst of new ideas, some as familiar today as tanks, germ warfare, chemical warfare, petroleum napalm, and handheld grenades ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Horne</Author><Year>2002</Year><RecNum>1480</RecNum><DisplayText>(Horne, 2002)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1480</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1480</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Horne, Alistair</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Seven Ages of Paris</title></titles><dates><year>2002</year></dates><pub-location>New York, NY</pub-location><publisher>Vintage Books</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Horne, 2002). Although the City of Paris ultimately capitulated (as did sailing ships and ice harvesting), there are times when the incumbents do defend against the threat by improving technology (e.g., silicon semiconductors, WAP protocols, many nanotechnology applications). Therefore, although the carburetor industry appeared to have reached the apex of its innovation capability after decades of competition, we hypothesize that incumbents facing a threat from a new technology will expend extra efforts to innovate, leading to a sudden leap in the technology trajectory. Hypothesis 2 (H2): When threatened by a new technology generation, incumbents’ efforts to extract greater performance from existing technology will contribute to a last gasp in the technology trajectory.Although the innovation efforts of an incumbent has been the primary explanation for a last gasp, there may be other previously unexamined reasons contributing to a last gasp. 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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Adner and Helfat, 2003; Adner and Snow, 2010b; Lavie, 2006). As an illustration in the carburetor market, when EFI first appeared in the auto industry, it emerged in high-end, large, expensive car models that could absorb the significant increase in cost and where, due to the large vehicle weight, carburetors were particularly inefficient solutions. Some carburetor firms actively retreated from these segments in order to focus on small and moderate weight vehicles where they had an advantage relative to the threatening technology. Although ex post such a strategy may appear to result in a death spiral for the firm ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Leonard-Barton</Author><Year>1992</Year><RecNum>738</RecNum><DisplayText>(Leonard-Barton, 1992)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>738</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">738</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Dorothy Leonard-Barton</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Core Capabilities and Core Rigidities: A Paradox in Managing New Product Development</title><secondary-title>Strategic Management Journal</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></periodical><pages>111-125</pages><volume>13</volume><keywords><keyword>capabilities</keyword><keyword>capability change</keyword><keyword>product development</keyword><keyword>core capabilities</keyword><keyword>adaptation</keyword><keyword>values</keyword><keyword>organizational change</keyword><keyword>dissertation</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1992</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Leonard-Barton, 1992), ex ante such a strategy appears rational and may have worked in some technological transitions where next-generation technologies coexist alongside incumbents that have entrenched in their areas of comparative advantage (e.g. e-books versus traditional books, laptops versus notebooks, and so forth). More importantly, retreat and reconfiguration may be an overlooked source of the apparent last gasp. Specifically, as incumbents pull out of market segments where they are less competitive, the ‘performance’ of a technology trajectory may appear to make a sudden leap simply because incumbents selling the technology have retreated from the poorest performing applications to the highest performing applications.Hypothesis 3 (H3): When threatened by a new technology generation, incumbents reconfiguring to market segments where they have comparative advantage relative to the threatening technology will contribute to a last gasp in the technology trajectory.Finally, another reason for a last gasp in the technology trajectory may be that when faced with a potential but uncertain technological discontinuity, incumbents can defend against the potential disruption by recombining components from the new technology with older technology to improve the performance of the older technology. We define such a combination of technology from different technical areas as a hybrid and, in this paper, focus on the specific case of hybrids that combine technology from the old and new generation into one product ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Baldwin</Author><Year>2000</Year><RecNum>1478</RecNum><DisplayText>(Baldwin and Clark, 2000)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1478</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1478</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Baldwin, Carliss</author><author>Clark, Kim B.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Design Rules</title></titles><dates><year>2000</year></dates><pub-location>Cambridge, MA</pub-location><publisher>MIT Press</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Baldwin and Clark, 2000). Such intergenerational hybrids require some level of component modularity in each technical generation and are often based on the product architecture of the old technology. The emergence of hybrids has been observed in the study of several technology transitions, including the business machines ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Rosenbloom</Author><Year>2000</Year><RecNum>794</RecNum><DisplayText>(Rosenbloom, 2000)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>794</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">794</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Rosenbloom, Richard S.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Leadership, Capabilities, and Technological Change: The Transformation of NCR in the Electronic Era</title><secondary-title>Strategic Management Journal</secondary-title><alt-title>Strategic Management Journal</alt-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></periodical><alt-periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></alt-periodical><pages>1083</pages><volume>21</volume><number>10/11</number><keywords><keyword>Radical change</keyword><keyword>incremental change</keyword><keyword>organizational change</keyword><keyword>adaptation</keyword><keyword>dynamic Capabilities</keyword><keyword>capabilities</keyword><keyword>capability change</keyword><keyword>Capability development</keyword><keyword>dissertation</keyword><keyword>innovation</keyword><keyword>leadership</keyword><keyword>organizational change</keyword><keyword>technological change</keyword><keyword>capabilities</keyword></keywords><dates><year>2000</year></dates><publisher>John Wiley & Sons, Inc. / Business</publisher><urls><related-urls><url> </url></related-urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Rosenbloom, 2000), typesetting ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Tripsas</Author><Year>1997</Year><RecNum>252</RecNum><DisplayText>(Tripsas, 1997b)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>252</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">252</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Tripsas, Mary</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Unravelling the Process of Creative Destruction: Complementary Assets and Incumbent Survival in the Typesetter Industry</title><secondary-title>Strategic Management Journal</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></periodical><pages>119-142</pages><volume>18</volume><number>Special Issue</number><keywords><keyword>punctuated equilibrium change</keyword><keyword>radical change</keyword><keyword>incremental change</keyword><keyword>dynamic capability</keyword><keyword>Technical change</keyword><keyword>resource allocation</keyword><keyword>investment</keyword><keyword>complementary assets</keyword><keyword>Specialized assets</keyword><keyword>incumbent</keyword><keyword>entrant</keyword><keyword>austrian economics</keyword><keyword>opportunity recognition</keyword><keyword>technology frame</keyword><keyword>framing</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1997</year></dates><label>Innovation and change seminar</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Tripsas, 1997b), semiconductor equipment ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Henderson</Author><Year>1990</Year><RecNum>249</RecNum><DisplayText>(Henderson<style face="italic"> et al.</style>, 1990)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>249</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">249</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Henderson, Rebecca M.</author><author>Clark, Kim B.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Product Technologies and the Failure of Established Firms</title><secondary-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</full-title></periodical><pages>9-30</pages><volume>35</volume><keywords><keyword>Innovation</keyword><keyword>adaptation</keyword><keyword>change</keyword><keyword>technology</keyword><keyword>architecture</keyword><keyword>component</keyword><keyword>incremental change</keyword><keyword>radical change</keyword><keyword>modularity</keyword><keyword>architectural change</keyword><keyword>knowledge</keyword><keyword>framing</keyword><keyword>communication</keyword><keyword>communication channels</keyword><keyword>information</keyword><keyword>information filters</keyword><keyword>problem solving strategies</keyword><keyword>routines</keyword><keyword>routine rigidity</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1990</year></dates><label>Innovation and change seminar</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Henderson et al., 1990), and newspaper industries ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Gilbert</Author><Year>2005</Year><RecNum>182</RecNum><DisplayText>(Gilbert, 2005)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>182</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">182</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Gilbert, Clark</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Unbundling the Structure of Inertia: Resource versus Routine Rigidity</title><secondary-title>Academy of Management Journal</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Academy of Management Journal</full-title></periodical><pages>741-763</pages><volume>48</volume><number>5</number><keywords><keyword>discontinuous change</keyword><keyword>organizational change</keyword><keyword>threat perception</keyword><keyword>resouces</keyword><keyword>resource rigidity</keyword><keyword>routines</keyword><keyword>routine rigidity</keyword><keyword>entry</keyword><keyword>entry into new businesses</keyword><keyword>framing</keyword><keyword>opportunity identification</keyword><keyword>opportunity framing</keyword><keyword>personal network</keyword><keyword>external personal network</keyword><keyword>advisory networks</keyword><keyword>complexity theory</keyword><keyword>dissertation</keyword></keywords><dates><year>2005</year></dates><label>Strategic change, Strategy Seminar 2005</label><urls></urls><research-notes>Highlights the role of theory elaboration to "simplify, reconnect, and redirect theory" (Lee et al., 1999:166) (743)</research-notes></record></Cite></EndNote>(Gilbert, 2005). Modern examples—such as the hybrid electric vehicle, the hybrid SSD / hard drive storage device, the digital SLR camera, or the Microsoft Surface (hybrid between tablet and notebook)—continue to emerge.Despite the prevalence of hybrids during and sometimes after technology transitions, their impact remains a point of contention. One view seems to suggest that hybrids are the physical manifestation of organizational dysfunction: rigid incumbents unable to break the frame of extant technology create clumsy products that are neither here nor there. For example, Henderson and Clark ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite ExcludeAuth="1"><Author>Henderson</Author><Year>1990</Year><RecNum>249</RecNum><DisplayText>(1990)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>249</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">249</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Henderson, Rebecca M.</author><author>Clark, Kim B.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Architectural Innovation: The Reconfiguration of Existing Product Technologies and the Failure of Established Firms</title><secondary-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</full-title></periodical><pages>9-30</pages><volume>35</volume><keywords><keyword>Innovation</keyword><keyword>adaptation</keyword><keyword>change</keyword><keyword>technology</keyword><keyword>architecture</keyword><keyword>component</keyword><keyword>incremental change</keyword><keyword>radical change</keyword><keyword>modularity</keyword><keyword>architectural change</keyword><keyword>knowledge</keyword><keyword>framing</keyword><keyword>communication</keyword><keyword>communication channels</keyword><keyword>information</keyword><keyword>information filters</keyword><keyword>problem solving strategies</keyword><keyword>routines</keyword><keyword>routine rigidity</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1990</year></dates><label>Innovation and change seminar</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(1990) observed that semiconductor equipment producers often struggled to recognize the architectural changes of the next generation, so they created clumsy hybrids that contained components from the new generation that were based on the older architecture, such as Kasper’s attempt to introduce contact aligners with proximity aligner components. As another example, Tripsas ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite ExcludeAuth="1"><Author>Tripsas</Author><Year>1997</Year><RecNum>231</RecNum><DisplayText>(1997a)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>231</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">231</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Tripsas, Mary</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Surviving Radical Technological Change through Dynamic Capability: Evidence from the Typesetter Industry</title><secondary-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Industrial and Corporate Change</full-title></periodical><keywords><keyword>dynamic capability</keyword><keyword>organizational change</keyword><keyword>punctuated equilibrium change</keyword><keyword>discontinuous change</keyword><keyword>Capabilities</keyword><keyword>absorptive capacity</keyword><keyword>communication</keyword><keyword>research</keyword><keyword>Complexity theory</keyword></keywords><dates><year>1997</year></dates><label>Strategy seminar 2005</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(1997a) observed that in the typesetting industry an incumbent attempting to address the shift from hot metal typesetting to phototypesetting created a clumsy hybrid based on the old hot metal architecture. Therefore, hybrids may be technologies that are neither here nor there and are simply the byproduct of organizational rigidity.However, another view suggests that hybrids may play an important role in the transition from one technical paradigm to another. Although new technologies often threaten to displace an older technology, often such threats do not emerge; even when a discontinuity does occur, it can take a surprisingly long time to shift from one generation to the next. Although an armchair strategist might suggest that as soon as a new generation emerges incumbents should leap to the next generation, in practice, firms leaping too early are often censured for moving too quickly and wasting precious resources ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Benner</Author><Year>2007</Year><RecNum>1488</RecNum><DisplayText>(Benner, 2007, 2010)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1488</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1488</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Benner, Mary J.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>The Incumbent Discount: Stock Market Categories and Response to Radical Technological Change</title><secondary-title>Academy of Management Review</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Academy of Management Review</full-title></periodical><pages>703-720</pages><volume>32</volume><number>3</number><dates><year>2007</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Benner</Author><Year>2010</Year><RecNum>1487</RecNum><record><rec-number>1487</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1487</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Benner, Mary J.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Securities Analysts and Incumbent Response to Radical Technological Change: Evidence from Digital Photography and Internet Telephony</title><secondary-title>Organization Science</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Organization Science</full-title></periodical><pages>42-62</pages><volume>21</volume><number>1</number><dates><year>2010</year></dates><isbn>1526-5455</isbn><urls></urls><custom1>1706512</custom1><electronic-resource-num>10.1287/orsc.1080.0395</electronic-resource-num></record></Cite></EndNote>(Benner, 2007, 2010). For example, Microsoft was criticized for leaping too early into interactive media control with WebTV and Apple was critiqued for leaping too early into PDAs with the Newton and into digital cameras with the QuickTake. While those early products failed, those same industries later emerged as profitable technical transformations ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Kaplan</Author><Year>2008</Year><RecNum>1479</RecNum><DisplayText>(Kaplan and Segan, 2008)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1479</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1479</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Magazine Article">19</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Kaplan, Jeremy</author><author>Segan, Sascha</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>21 Great Technologies that Failed</title><secondary-title>PC Magazine</secondary-title></titles><dates><year>2008</year><pub-dates><date>18 July 2008</date></pub-dates></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Kaplan and Segan, 2008). Therefore, during the period when a transition may be uncertain or in process, incumbents have the struggle of how to address a potential new generation while an older generation remains profitable. Under such circumstances, a hybrid may actually be a sophisticated hedging and learning strategy. Specifically, borrowing from a future technical paradigm provides a learning option for firms: if the threatening technology materializes, incumbents have developed some knowledge about how it operates and are better positioned to adapt. However, if the threatening technology proves less viable, by borrowing components from the threatening technology, they can both preserve existing resources and possibly capture any residual spillovers from the new generation. For example, gas-electric hybrid vehicles borrow components from electric vehicles, grafting them into traditional combustion vehicles. If a future emerges dominated by electric vehicles, the makers of hybrids will have decades of experience with the design, sourcing, and production of components such as batteries, electric motors, and electric drivetrains, which could provide a significant advantage. However, if the future remains dominated by combustion vehicles, the makers of hybrids may be able to gain advantages over those combustion vehicles by borrowing the best components from the threatening technical generation. In the carburetor industry, such hybrids emerged as standard carburetors equipped with Fuel Feedback System FFS controls—a component from the EFI technical generation grafted onto the carburetor architecture. Therefore, we hypothesize that under the appropriate conditions (technical discontinuity outcome uncertainty, technical generations with modular components that allow for the development of hybrids), incumbents are likely to borrow components from a threatening technology as an option on the future technology, which also improves the performance of the older technical generation.Hypothesis 4 (H4): When threatened by a new technology generation, incumbents recombining components from the threatening technology with extant technology will contribute to a last gasp in the technology trajectory.Research Setting and DesignThe research setting is the automobile carburetor industry during a period of transition to electronic fuel injection technologies from 1978 to 1992. Automobile carburetors served the purpose of mixing gasoline and air in a ratio that can be burned efficiently by the car’s engine, and a car’s fuel economy performance depends heavily on the carburetor. Carburetors employed the Bernoulli effect—essentially simple suction—to draw gasoline into the stream of air entering the engine. Carburetors were the standard technology for preparing gasoline for combustion from the invention of the automobile in the late 1800s through the early 1980s. In the 1960s and 1970s, increasing oil prices and a growing awareness of air pollution moved U.S. policymakers to regulate automobile fuel economy and airborne pollutant emissions. In response to those regulations and market demand for fuel-efficient cars, automakers and suppliers worked to improve carburetor performance in order to extract higher miles per a gallon—a critical performance criteria for both suppliers and automakers enforced as a federal regulation on the overall miles per gallon (MPG) for the manufacturers’ fleets. In particular, carburetor manufacturers strove to improve emissions and fuel economy performance by increasing the precision of control for the ratio of air and gasoline entering the engine. The closer these proportions matched the ideal so-called stoichiometric ratio, the better the performance of the engine. But by the end of the 1970s, carburetor performance seemed to have reached its limit in terms of consistent delivery of a stoichiometric mixture of air and fuel.By 1980, as an alternative to carburetors, EFI was offered for the first time on mass produced automobiles. EFI used sensors and an onboard computer to monitor the engine's performance and change operating parameters in real time to adjust to changing conditions. This allowed precise control of an automobile’s air/fuel mixture. The increased precision allowed automakers to use more advanced emissions control devices (such as the catalytic converter), and it gave cars better fuel economy performance. Importantly, the sensors and electronics that EFI required had not been developed before the advent of EFI—existing microelectronics were too delicate for the harsh environments automobiles presented. Therefore, at the emergence of EFI, it was not clear to carburetor manufacturers if EFI could survive in passenger cars or be produced cost effectively. However, if successful, EFI would completely substitute the carburetor manufacturers and, therefore, it represented a very real threat that could destroy their core industry. The plot in Figure 1 shows counts of automobile models equipped with carburetors and EFI during the 10-year transition period from the former to the latter.< Insert Figure 1 about here>DataThe data come from three sources. The first data set, provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, lists fuel economy and tailpipe emissions performance for each type of car model sold in the United States for the automobile model years 1978 through 1992. In these data, a car model is any available combination of model name, model year, body type, engine size, transmission type, power output, and carburetor or EFI. This data set is merged with a data set from the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Department of Transportation that contains observations of each car model’s physical characteristics—weight, car class, number of doors, type of engine, size of engine, type of transmission, type of fuel delivery system, and presence of engine management computer. Finally, for all car models for which we were able to find a repair manual with carburetor part numbers, we used repair manuals to identify the manufacturer of the car model’s carburetor.The resulting data set contains 10,505 observations, an average of 700 car models per year from 1978 through 1992. It clearly shows the pattern of substitution that occurred as EFI technology grew to dominate the car market. In the first year of the sample, carburetors are found in 100 percent of the models. The first EFI systems appeared in 1980 and by 1992, they had completely displaced carburetors from the market (see Figure 1). Table 1 provides a description of the variables we used, their construction, and their summary statistics. Table 2 reports the correlation matrix of these variables. Table 3 reports descriptive statistics for these variables. <Insert Table 2 about here>Dependent VariableFuel Economy Growth Rate (MPG). We calculate annual fuel economy growth rate by interacting MPG (miles per gallon) with a model year counter (years from start of the sample).. As discussed earlier, the (MPG) performance of a vehicle is strongly influenced by the carburetor and by the technology it incorporates, and it is the most representative performance variable for manufacturers driven to increase performance by federal regulation and competitive pressure. The U.S. EPA reports MPG performance on both city and highway test cycles and on a combined city/highway test cycle for each car model. We use this combined city/highway cycle MPG result as the dependent variable because it most accurately represents real, in-use MPG performance. We estimate fuel economy performance of an individual carburetor as the MPG of the automobile after controlling for all observable other-than-carburetor physical attributes of the car that impact its fuel economy. Independent VariablesCar model attributes. The data set contains measures of physical attributes that influence a car model’s MPG performance. A vector of these car model-specific attributes is included in all but one of the specifications, the reason for which will be explained later. The variables measure a car model’s weight in pounds (WEIGHT), its engine’s horsepower output (POWER), the presence of an automatic (rather than a manual) transmission (AUTO), and the engine displacement (a measure of the engine’s size) in cubic centimeters (ENGINECC). Carburetor (CARB) or electronic fuel injection (EFI). These dummy variables indicate the type of fuel delivery system present in a car model. A fuel delivery system in this data set is either a carburetor (CARB = 1 or EFI = 0) or an electronic fuel injection system (CARB = 0 and EFI = 1) as reported by the EPA. The CARB and EFI variables are perfectly inversely related. Both are used in the specifications for ease of coefficient interpretation.Electronic feedback fuel system controls (FFS or NOTFFS). This dummy variable indicates the presence (or absence) of FFS controls in a car’s fuel delivery system. Electronic FFS controls enable electronic fuel injection (EFI) systems to measure engine performance and to adjust operating parameters in real time, an ability necessary to the proper functioning of an EFI system. Although such functionality was not a necessary component in a carburetor fuel delivery system, most manufacturers adapted FFS for use in carburetor systems. The variables FFS and NOTFFS are perfectly inversely related.Car model year through 1983 (PRE) and car model year after 1983 (POST). The PRE and POST dummy variables indicate whether a car model was built before or after the arrival of EFI. Starting in 1980, car models equipped with EFI start to appear in the sample. The model year 1992 was the last year for carburetors in the U.S. automobile market (see Figure 1). The point at which EFI arrived as a threat to the carburetor (and thus the point at which we would expect the last gasp to occur) presumably falls somewhere between these two dates. As a practical matter, identifying the precise date on which EFI began to represent a viable threat to the carburetor is not possible, so we run our specifications on a range of dates on which this reasonably may have occurred. The methodology used here is as follows: the pattern in Figure 1 indicates rapid growth in EFI adoption from 1984 through 1988. Assuming a lag of two to five years from the point at which an automaker specifies a car model’s fuel system and the point at which the car model is introduced, carburetor firms may have recognized as early as 1981 and as late as 1986 that EFI represented a serious threat to carburetors. The empirical tests in this section were conducted with a range of EFI ‘arrival’ dates, starting with an assumed arrival date in the middle of the 1981-1986 range. Results are substantively similar with category splits ranging from 1982-83 through 1985-86, so a midpoint split (1983-84) is used for the presented results. The PRE and POST variables are perfectly inversely related.Mixed EFI/carburetor firm (MIXED) or carburetors-only firm (PURE). These dummy variables are generated by combining information about a car model (from the EPA data), the manufacturer of the carburetor found in the car model (from carburetor repair manuals), and the product portfolio of the carburetor manufacturer as described in industry journals. This combination generates a sample of car models about which the carburetor’s manufacturer’s product portfolio is known. This sample contains 595 car models distributed over 11 years. Table 5 reports descriptive statistics for this group. Car models containing a carburetor from a firm that produced primarily carburetors are identified as PURE = 1. Car models containing a carburetor from a firm that produced both carburetors and EFI systems are identified as MIXED = 1. SpecificationsTo test the hypotheses, we look for relationships between the arrival of the new technology (EFI) and performance changes in the existing technology (carburetors). In general terms, the empirical strategy in this section is to start with a specification that estimates the rate of carburetor performance improvement before and after the emergence of EFI as a potentially dominant new technology. This simple OLS model is described in Equation 1 MPGi=β1YEAR*CARB*PREi+β2YEAR*CARB*POSTi+β3YEAR*EFIi+δXi+εiin which a carburetor’s fuel efficiency in miles per gallon (MPG) is estimated by regressing a car model’s MPG on time trend variables before and after the arrival of EFI. In this model, the fuel economy (MPG) of car model i is regressed on interactions between the car model’s YEAR and three mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categorical variables. This specification permits us to report coefficient estimates for all categories in the regression tables. This type of specification, commonly used in labor economics, removes the constant and does not make use of the typical practice of omitting a base category whose coefficient estimate is zero ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Jacob</Author><Year>2003</Year><RecNum>1476</RecNum><DisplayText>(Jacob and Lefgren, 2003; Jacob, Lefgren, and Moretti, 2007)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1476</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="erxszsr2map5s5epfz8veat4pwwzzpavw952">1476</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Jacob, Brian</author><author>Lefgren, Lars</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Are Idle Hands the Devil’s Workshop? Incapacitation, Concentration, and Juvenile Crime</title><secondary-title>American Economic Review</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>American Economic Review</full-title></periodical><pages>17</pages><volume>93</volume><number>5</number><section>1560</section><dates><year>2003</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Jacob</Author><Year>2007</Year><RecNum>1475</RecNum><record><rec-number>1475</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="erxszsr2map5s5epfz8veat4pwwzzpavw952">1475</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Jacob, Brian</author><author>Lefgren, Lars</author><author>Moretti, Enrico</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Weather Shocks</title><secondary-title>Journal of Human Resources</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Journal of Human Resources</full-title></periodical><pages>38</pages><volume>42</volume><number>3</number><section>498</section><dates><year>2007</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Jacob and Lefgren, 2003; Jacob, Lefgren, and Moretti, 2007). The attractiveness of this approach is that it makes it possible to interpret the coefficient estimates for multiple-category interactions like those reported in Table 5. These three categories indicate the car’s type of fuel delivery system (CARB or EFI) and, in the case of carburetors, whether the car model appeared PRE or POST the arrival of EFI. The vector X contains carburetor fixed effects for the pre-EFI period and EFI and carburetor fixed effects (the base interaction terms) for the post-EFI period. For the initial results, the counterfactual carburetor fuel economy improvement in this analysis is the controlled rate of carburetor improvement before the arrival of EFI. Then, in order to understand technology and firm-type effects, we compare rates of carburetor improvement across these categories in the post-EFI arrival era. The focus on rate of change rather than level of fuel economy provides a clear picture of technological development trends.To control for alternate explanations beyond the hypothesized effects, specifically patterns that might cause the improvement observed in this base specification to be amplified by a change in the population to which carburetors were used, we specify a second OLS model including a vector of variables describing attributes of car model i. Although this simple specification controls for changes in the population of cars in which carburetors remained, it does not account for nonrandom assignment of carburetors and EFI to individual car models. As a result, the endogenous nature of the selection process could cause biased coefficient estimates. To prevent such biases and address the possibility of this type of selection, we use an instrumental variables (IV) approach in a two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression. We instrument for the presence of a carburetor in a given car model by using the carburetor penetration rate in car models built by different manufacturers, but that were built in the same year, have engines with the same number of cylinders, and are about the same size (within the same 200 cubic centimeter displacement group). This measure captures variation, ostensibly driven by considerations known to car companies but not to the researchers, in the penetration rate of carburetors across different types of car engines. In notation, the instrument for the presence of a carburetor in car model i built by manufacturer j in model year k with engine type l isCARBINSTijkl= p≠iq≠jMODELpqkl,carburetorp≠iq≠jMODELpqkl,carburetor or EFIwhere the numerator is the sum of all cars built in model year k with engine type l that are carbureted, but that are not model i (and, therefore, are not built by manufacturer j). The denominator is the sum of all cars built in model year k with engine type l that are carbureted or have EFI, but that are not model i and are not built by manufacturer j. The advantage of this instrument is that its validity can be determined deductively. The instrument is correlated with the propensity of an individual car model to be equipped with a carburetor. However, the instrument contains no information about the focal car model, so it is not correlated with unobserved characteristics specific to that model. This means there is not a causal relationship between carburetor penetration among similar engines and the propensity for the focal car model to be equipped with a carburetor.One potential problem with this instrument is that carburetor penetration may be correlated with the physical attributes common to cars equipped with similar engines. This would be problematic if we did not have detailed controls for the physical attributes of individual car models (because of remaining engine type group-level endogeneity). However, because the data contain variables measuring individual car model physical attributes, we can control for considerations that might change the likelihood of an individual car model being equipped with a carburetor. As a result, this instrument is valid under the maintained assumption that there are no unobserved engine type effects that are correlated with MPG once we have controlled for individual car model attributes. Based on the logic of the three hypothesized firm actions that may contribute to a last gasp, we form three alternative 2SLS specifications that follow the construction in the base OLS specification (with instruments for the presence of a carburetor) and that add variables consistent with those explanations. The specifications in this section implicitly allow the proposed explanations to operate in concert rather than in a mutually exclusive way. Therefore, the results are not sensitive to the order in which the controls are added—the sequential construction of the specifications is for expositional clarity only. Again, for ease of coefficient interpretation where there are many interacted variables, the regressions are specified with mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive categories with no omitted variable. As a result, each coefficient is interpretable as a stand-alone estimate for that category—it is not interpreted as a difference from an omitted category and it is not necessary to add it to any other category. The limitation to this strategy is that a post-estimation Wald test must be used to determine whether coefficients are significantly different from one another. These are reported where relevant. All regressions are reported with robust standard errors. As additional robustness tests we also constructed models estimating controlled annual MPG growth within each category independently (i.e. without interaction terms). Comparison across these models replicates those reported in the fully interacted models reported here.ResultsLast GaspIn Hypothesis 1, we proposed that when threatened by a potential technological discontinuity, the technology trajectory of an older technology would experience a last gasp, or unexpected increase in the technology performance trajectory. From a data description standpoint, a plot of fuel efficiency over time shows that after the introduction of EFI, cars equipped with carburetors exhibited dramatically increased fuel economy. In Figure 2, the mean annual fuel economy of car models equipped with carburetors is plotted against the mean annual fuel economy of car models equipped with EFI. The plots, de-meaned to remove changes in the overall fleet of cars and to highlight the relative performance of the two technologies in actual use, appear to show a dramatic increase in fuel economy of car models equipped with carburetors—the last gasp of the carburetor. <Insert Figure 2 about here>Statistically, Model 1 in Table 4 reports the results of a simple OLS model exploring the MPG growth rate before and after the arrival of the EFI threat. The results show that after the arrival of EFI, the performance of the carburetor increased from a growth rate of 0.346 MPG to a rate of 0.858 MPG, a difference statistically significant with a t-test at the 1 percent level. In other words, these results suggest support for H1: that the arrival of the EFI led to a last gasp in carburetor technology. Multiple robustness checks of the arrival date confirm these results, as described in the methods section.ReconfigurationHowever, although we observe a last gasp using a simple OLS specification, there may be many forces contributing to the last gasp, including the selection effects described in Hypothesis 3. Specifically, in Hypothesis 3, we argued that when threatened, incumbents would reconfigure, or retreat, to areas of comparative advantage, creating an endogeneous selection effect. For example, as automakers faced pressures to increase fuel economy, they may have reconfigured their car designs creating smaller, lighter cars to increase fuel economy—a change which would make it appear that carburetor performance improved when, in fact, the characteristics of the car population actually changed. Alternatively, EFI may have forced carburetor manufacturers to retreat to areas of comparative advantage, displacing carburetors from the market starting in heavier and more powerful car models (see Table 3) where the cost of EFI could be more easily absorbed, leaving carburetors in lighter and less powerful vehicles. In the data, we can observe this shift over time and control for it by including variables describing the car model’s physical characteristics relevant to MPG. If changes in carbureted car model characteristics (measured here by the variables WEIGHT, POWER, AUTO, and ENGINECC) are responsible for carburetor performance improvement, then we would expect that the inclusion of these controls should account for the increase in MPG growth. In support of Hypothesis 3 (retreat and recombination), we find that after adding these controls to the simple OLS model in Model 2 of Table 4, estimated annual carburetor MPG growth (Year*Carb*PRE) decreases from 0.80 MPG per year before the entrance of EFI to 0.44 MPG per year after (Year*Carb*POST), a change significant at the 1 percent level. This oversimplified model suggests that a changing population of carbureted cars accounts for the entire last gasp, providing support for H3, but calling H1 (last gasp) into question.However, this simple OLS analysis does not account for a second, more subtle selection effect shaping a potential last gasp: auto manufacturers may have chosen to equip car models with EFI according to the expected impact it would have on MPG. This selection effect represents the active effort by manufacturers to reconfigure their automobile portfolio by putting carburetors in models where they had the best fit. To control for this type of selection, we employ a 2SLS regression, reported in Model 3 of Table 5, with the inclusion of the CARB instrument described earlier. Interestingly, the revised estimates of MPG growth rates in this regression are substantially different from the OLS estimates: annual carburetor MPG growth increases by 0.26 MPG more per year after the emergence of the EFI threat than before the threat, a difference significant at the 5 percent level (p < 0.05). In other words, reconfiguration appears to account for some, but not all, of the apparent last gasp, providing support for H3. Most importantly, even when accounting for the contribution of reconfiguration to the last gasp, a significant positive change in MPG growth rates remains, providing support for H1, or a last gasp in the technology trajectory. This last gasp effect, after controlling for the different types of reconfiguration, proved robust under all the conditions described in the methods section and for multiple specifications employing alternate controls.RecombinationIn Hypothesis 4, we argued that when threatened by a new technology, incumbents recombine new technologies with older technologies to improve performance. In the case of carburetors and EFI, a prime candidate for an intergenerational technological spillover is electronic feedback fuel system (FFS) controls because such controls were not available before the emergence of EFI but they could be integrated into the architecture of carburetors. Therefore, we investigate incumbents adopting FFS controls and ask whether FFS-equipped carburetors experienced greater MPG growth than non-FFS-equipped carburetors and to what extent this difference can explain carburetor MPG growth. The EPA data indicate whether a particular carbureted car includes FFS controls, and this allows carbureted cars to be divided into two categories―those equipped with FFS and those without FFS. To test whether the addition of FFS components had an impact on carburetor efficiency growth, we reestimate the specification in Table 5, but divide carbureted cars in the post-EFI era into those with and without FFS. As the resulting estimates in Model 4 of Table 5 show, after the emergence of the EFI threat, annual MPG growth was, in fact, higher for carburetors equipped with FFS than it was for those without FFS. Carburetors with FFS are estimated to have grown more efficient by 1.90 MPG per year during the post-EFI period, and non-FFS carburetor MPG are estimated to have grown significantly less quickly during this same period, at 0.73 MPG per year (both estimates significantly different at the 1 percent level). These results provide support for Hypothesis 4, that recombination contributed to the last gasp and, at first blush, seem to suggest that the performance increase for carburetors actually came from hybrid carburetors, not from simply ‘trying harder’ to innovate in the old technology.InnovationIn Hypothesis 2, we argued that the primary explanation for the last gasp offered by prior literature—trying harder to innovate—would contribute to a last gasp in performance. Under this explanation, incumbents threatened by the entry of a new technology expend extra effort to squeeze even more performance from a threatened technology. The initial examination of Model 4 in Table 5 described earlier suggests that in fact ‘trying harder’ may not contribute to a last gasp in performance as the performance of non-hybrid carburetors appeared to drop from 1.231 MPG to 0.729 MPG rate, a difference significant at the 1 percent level. This evidence would appear to lack support for the primary hypothesis provided by prior literature that, when threatened, incumbents try harder to innovate and thereby extract more performance from the older technology.<Insert tables 3 - 5 about here>Exploratory Analysis: Incumbent Technology Choice and the Last GaspThe surprising lack of support for the primary explanation for last gasps offered by prior literature led us to the question of individual firm technology choice. For the most part, prior literature has explored the last gasp phenomenon at the level of the industry, or technology trajectory, ignoring the effects of individual firm technology choices on the last gasp. To better understand the effect of firm technology choice, we categorized firms based on one of three primary technology responses to the threat of EFI: (1) retrench in carburetors, (2) invest in hybrids, or (3) invest in EFI. These categories represent primary technology choices. All firms produced both carburetors and hybrids, but the differences in primary technology choice were clearly manifest in number of models, stated priorities, and even in microbehaviors (for example, incumbents focusing on standard carburetors purchased the hybrid FFS components whereas incumbents focusing on hybrids chose to manufacture them—a choice reflecting greater commitment). Because R&D expenditures were not available for many firms due to their private ownership structure, we categorized firms based on the investment priorities, reflected in number of new product models offered (types of carburetors) and in stated priorities noted in industry magazines. As a robustness check, we examined a continuous measure based on the number of carburetor model types produced by each firm, which replicated the results. Therefore, for interpretive simplicity, we chose to use a binary representation of primary firm technology choice. These large firms and their technology choices (which make up more than 99 percent of the market) are reported in Table 6. Descriptive statistics suggest that 50 percent of incumbents retrenched into carburetors and 50 percent chose to shift investment to hybrid carburetors. Interestingly, no incumbents elected to leap straight into EFI—a telling technology choice we will return to later. After grouping incumbents based on their primary technology choice, we reexamined Hypothesis 1 (innovation) employing the same 2SLS analysis but grouping the analysis based on firm technology choices. Specifically, in Model 5 of Table 5, we split incumbents into PURE (firms choosing to retrench in carburetors) and MIXED (firms choosing to invest in hybrids). We first tested for potential differences in initial capabilities before the arrival of the threat and we found that although the MPG growth rate was slightly higher for MIXED firms in absolute terms (1.233 growth rate for MIXED versus 1.023 growth rate for PURE) before the EFI threat, this difference was not statistically significant.Next, Hypothesis 2 argued that when threatened, incumbents will attempt to squeeze extra innovation out of the existing technology, which will lead to a last gasp. Arguably, for those PURE firms choosing to focus primarily on old carburetors, the threat of an EFI technological discontinuity may have a greater impact than for those MIXED firms experimenting with hybrids carburetors which could give provide them an option on a future EFI world. If these threatened PURE firms were trying harder to innovate, we should expect to find that carburetors from PURE carburetor firms improved more rapidly after the arrival of EFI than did carburetors from MIXED firms. In support of this hypothesis, the estimates presented in Model 5 of Table 5 provide tantalizing clues about the nature of threat on incumbent efforts to improve technology. For incumbents choosing to retrench into standard carburetors, fuel economy growth in their hybrid carburetors was significantly worse than the growth these firms obtained from their old-fashioned carburetors before the arrival of EFI, falling from 1.02 MPG per year to 0.55 MPG per year, a difference significant at the 1 percent level. However, fuel economy growth in their old-fashioned carburetors actually significantly improved after the arrival of EFI, increasing from 1.02 MPG per year to 1.48 MPG per year, a difference significant at the 5 percent level. This suggests that threatened PURE firms may have directed extra innovation effort according to their primary technology choice—the old-fashioned carburetors not equipped with the FFS components from EFI. In summary, we find support for Hypothesis 2, that innovation efforts led to a last gasp but qualified by incumbent technology choice: the last gasp in the standard carburetor occurred only for those incumbents who chose to retrench into carburetors.By contrast, for MIXED incumbents that chose to make significant investments into hybrid carburetors, we see a different pattern of last gasp. The changes observed in MIXED firm MPG growth rates are almost the opposite from those observed among PURE firms: MIXED firms’ hybrid carburetors (FFS) improved more rapidly after the threat. By contrast, fuel economy growth in their non-hybrid carburetors worsened after the threat. These results also provide support for Hypothesis 2, qualified by incumbent technology choices: firms investing in hybrid carburetors experienced a last gasp in hybrid carburetors but not standard carburetors. In summary, the nature of incumbent technology choice shaped how those actions impacted the evolution of a last gasp: incumbents choosing to focus on the original carburetor produced a last gasp in original carburetors, whereas incumbents focusing efforts on hybrid carburetors produced a last gasp in hybrid carburetors. Overall this supports Hypothesis 2 but with much greater nuance than established in prior qualitative or empirical work.Exploratory Analysis: Performance ImplicationsFinally, the performance consequences of the last gasp are important, but largely unaddressed, considerations. Does the last gasp affect the pace of the technology transition overall and how do incumbent technology choices affect the performance of individual firms? In terms of technology trajectory, although the primary purpose of the paper was to provide empirical validation of the last gasp and the sources contributing to the last gasp, we can provide some initial evidence to the performance consequences of the last gasp. Arguably it is possible that a last gasp could defer or delay a technology transition, in some cases for years, as has occurred in the semiconductor, lightbulb, and electric vehicle industries. To determine the effect of the last gasp on the carburetor industry, we estimate a substitution function that follows a Fisher-Pry logistical curve ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Dattee</Author><Year>2007</Year><RecNum>1501</RecNum><DisplayText>(Dattee, 2007)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1501</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1501</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Dattee, Brice</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Challenging the S-Curve: Patterns of Technological Substitution</title><secondary-title>Working Paper</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Working Paper</full-title></periodical><dates><year>2007</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Dattee, 2007). We do this by first estimating the logistic growth trajectory (‘S’-curve) of EFI as a function of time. We then estimate a model in which yearly splines are included in the logit around the time of the carburetor’s last gasp. This allows for a delay in growth of EFI adoption. The revised model increases the pseudo-R2 of the logit by 1.2%. Although this is a relatively modest improvement, it is in the expected direction, which is evidence that supports a delay that is visually quite stark in Figures 3 and 4. This preliminary analysis suggests that while the last gasp in carburetors did not stop the transition to EFI, it did delay the technological discontinuity approximately 2 years depending on the market segment.< Insert Figure 3 and 4 about here>In terms of the effect of firm technology choice on performance outcomes, we can provide some qualitative evidence. First, we observed that none of the incumbents choosing to retrench into carburetors successfully transitioned to EFI (see Table 6). Every incumbent choosing to retrench effectively failed. Second, we observed that no incumbents chose to leap straight to EFI technologies. Third, we observed that all firms choosing to invest heavily in hybrid technologies successfully survived the transition to EFI technologies. This represents an important observation with potential implications for the study of technological discontinuities and firm strategy; we will return to this point later. In conclusion, firm technology choice appears to have significant effects on the survival of incumbents during a technical discontinuity as does the last gasp on the timing of the technical discontinuity.Discussion and Conclusion Although in the canonical description of industry evolution, technology discontinuities follow a rapid transition from old to new technology during which time rigid incumbents are swept aside, sometimes such transitions take longer than expected or never occur at all. Prior literature has suggested that one reason for the delay may be the tendency of an older technology to exhibit a last gasp—a sudden, unexpected increase in the technology performance trajectory—when threatened. While prior literature has suggested this pattern, there has been little empirical verification of the last gasp and almost no attention to the sources of a last gasp beyond suggesting that incumbents try harder to innovate ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Gilfillan</Author><Year>1935</Year><RecNum>1498</RecNum><DisplayText>(Gilfillan, 1935; Harley, 1988)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1498</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1498</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Gilfillan, S. Colum</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Inventing the Ship: A Study of the Inventions Made in Her History Between Floating Log and Rotorship</title></titles><dates><year>1935</year></dates><pub-location>Chicago</pub-location><publisher>Follett</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Harley</Author><Year>1988</Year><RecNum>1481</RecNum><record><rec-number>1481</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1481</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Harley, Charles K.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Ocean Freight Rates and Productivity, 1740-1913: The Primacy of Mechanical Invention Reaffirmed</title><secondary-title>Journal of Economic History</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Journal of Economic History</full-title></periodical><pages>851-876</pages><volume>48</volume><number>4</number><dates><year>1988</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Gilfillan, 1935; Harley, 1988). In this paper, we provide some initial empirical verification of the last gasp, in the setting of the carburetor industry when threatened by a potential technical discontinuity with the emergence of electronic fuel injection. In addition, we suggest two additional potential sources of the last gasp—reconfiguration and recombination—in addition to the more common ‘trying harder’ explanation offered by the literature. We find support that all three source—innovation, reconfiguration, and recombination—contribute to a last gasp, but in some unexpected ways. First, we find evidence that incumbents retreat and reconfigure, creating the appearance of a last gasp—although product performance may not improve per se—rather the apparent performance improvement is the result of the product retreating from less efficient to more efficient applications. Second, even when accounting for such selection pressures, we find that recombination, or the creation of hybrids between the old and new technology generations, makes a significant contribution to the last gasp. Third, while we initially failed to find evidence that the primary innovation explanation offered by prior literature contributed to a last gasp, once we accounted for incumbent technology choices, we found that incumbents focusing their efforts on the original carburetor contributed to a last gasp in standard carburetors; those incumbents focusing on hybrid carburetors contributed to a last gasp in hybrid carburetors. This finding provides support for the effect of incumbent efforts to try harder, qualified by their technology choices. Lastly, we estimated that the last gasp did defer the technology discontinuity for a time. Furthermore, although no incumbents leapt immediately to EFI, only those incumbents first investing in hybrid carburetors survived the transition to EFI technology. These results contribute to our understanding of technology evolution and the last gasp. Although Tushman and Anderson PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGUgRXhjbHVkZUF1dGg9IjEiPjxBdXRob3I+QW5kZXJzb248L0F1dGhvcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (1990; 1986) helped define the broad characteristics of technology transition, recent work has begun to flesh out the dynamics of these transitions more fully. For example, Adner and Kapoor ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite ExcludeAuth="1"><Author>Adner</Author><Year>2012</Year><RecNum>1477</RecNum><DisplayText>(2012)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>1477</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">1477</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Adner, Ron</author><author>Kapoor, Rahul</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Innovation Ecosystems and the Pace of Substitution: Re-examining Technology S-curves</title><secondary-title>Working Paper</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Working Paper</full-title></periodical><dates><year>2012</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(2012) argue that the emergence of a new technology and the shape of its trajectory depend on the ecosystem surrounding a particular innovation. Although the last gasp has been suggested by several prior observers, we add to this emerging discourse by demonstrating the existence and sources of a last gasp. Furthermore, we suggest that the last gasp has important performance implications that may be more or less significant depending on industry. Although in the case we studied, EFI technologies eventually replaced the carburetors, carburetor firms had previously successfully defended themselves against the threat of wick carburetors, rotating brush carburetors, catalytic carburetors, vaporizers, and mechanical fuel injectors. If the carburetor’s last gasp had more effectively defended its place in the automobile, students of the industry would likely be praising the innovativeness of incumbents rather than criticizing their rigidity—much as we do when describing semiconductor incumbents today. The point is that the last gasp and its effect on deferring or even defeating technology transitions gets little attention from scholars, but considering these counterfactuals remains important to developing a robust theory. For example, over the years, there have been many technologies that seemed likely, imminent replacements for the incandescent lightbulb. Neon, halogen, fluorescent, compact fluorescent, and LED are among the principal substitutes that have been heralded as the death knell of the incandescent bulb. However, as scholars, we have few, if any, core narratives that describe doomed executives at incandescent lightbulb companies, grimly holding on to their losing technology as the waves of creative destruction drown them. Rather, efforts to extract additional performance from the lowly incandescent lightbulb seem to have held off the challengers for now, even though the challengers have had the force of government regulation on their sides. It is only after a successful technology transition has occurred that we can tell the rigidity narrative. And for now, we don’t have that narrative for incandescent lightbulbs or silicon semiconductors. This work highlights the need to develop a more robust representation of incumbent actions that goes beyond the interpretation that incumbents are either rigid or engage in full-scale transformation. As a first step toward this discussion, we describe and validate three specific responses—innovation, reconfiguration, and recombination—that contribute to the emerging discussion of how firms actively respond to discontinuities PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5LYXBsYW48L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4yMDA4PC9ZZWFyPjxS
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Eggers and Kaplan, 2009; Kaplan, 2008; Tushman and Rosenkopf, 1996).In addition, the surprising results around the creation of hybrids spanning technological discontinuities represents an important new topic in the study of firm strategy and technological evolution. Although hybrids have been observed in prior studies of technological discontinuities, they are often discounted as representations of organizational dysfunction. However, we proposed that hybrids could be a sophisticated learning option strategy whereby incumbents can learn about a potential future technology during the gray area between transitions. If the transition fails to occur, the incumbents engaging in hybrids have not risked everything and have potentially gained an advantage over competitors in the process. However, if the transition does occur, the incumbents developing hybrids have a potential advantage in making the leap to the next generation. We did observe that the development of hybrids contributed to the last gasp. More importantly, however, we observed that only those incumbents seriously developing hybrids survived the technological discontinuity. Qualitatively it appears that developing hybrids allowed incumbents to develop the needed capabilities to transition to EFI, during and after the technological discontinuity occurred. Hybrids, therefore, offer an important opportunity for study. Clearly the potential for hybrids to occur are limited by certain characteristics: for example, modular components that can be grafted onto compatible architectures in the context of a period of uncertainty (as opposed to a short, rapid technical discontinuity). Nonetheless, the role of hybrids deserves significant further study, which the authors hope to continue in future work. Finally, these findings contribute to the literature on change in dynamic environments PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5BZ2Fyd2FsPC9BdXRob3I+PFllYXI+MjAwOTwvWWVhcj48
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Agarwal et al., 2009; Eisenhardt, Furr, and Bingham, 2010; Rindova and Kotha, 2001), which emphasizes the need to quickly adapt to environmental changes such as technological discontinuities. Whereas one may be tempted to assume that leaping to a new market or technology is always preferable, our results provide insight into the dynamic uncertainty that firms face in making such decisions ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Davis</Author><Year>2009</Year><RecNum>266</RecNum><DisplayText>(Davis, Eisenhardt, and Bingham, 2009)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>266</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">266</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Davis, Jason</author><author>Eisenhardt, Kathleen</author><author>Bingham, Chris</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Optimal Structure, Market Dynamism, and the Strategy of Simple Rules</title><secondary-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Administrative Science Quarterly</full-title></periodical><dates><year>2009</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Davis, Eisenhardt, and Bingham, 2009). Not only do firms face outcome uncertainty, but their actions to fight the threat can shift the very frontier of performance, which further complicates the timing of the decision of whether to leap to a new market. In this paper, we show that waiting to leap may be a prudent decision when the technology frontier moves and that a recombination strategy can act as a hedge against technological uncertainty. We believe these observations contribute to the conversation regarding the dynamic forces inside and outside the firm that affect the timing and outcome of firm strategy, particularly in innovation contests PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5CZW5uZXI8L0F1dGhvcj48WWVhcj4yMDAyPC9ZZWFyPjxS
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ADDIN EN.CITE.DATA (Agarwal, Sarkar, and Echambadi, 2002; Benner et al., 2002; Helfat and Peteraf, 2003).In closing, although our study is limited by the focus on the carburetor industry, there are many contemporary technology industries that appear to have experienced last gasps, including CISC processor architecture, incandescent lightbulbs, photovoltaics, steel bicycle frame materials, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, and silicon semiconductors just to name a few. In some cases, the last gasp may have given the incumbents false hope that they might survive a threat, but in other cases, the last gasp seems to have allowed an extant technology to defeat a threat. In a world increasingly influenced by technology and shaped by change ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Wiggins</Author><Year>2005</Year><RecNum>77</RecNum><DisplayText>(D'Aveni, 1994; Wiggins and Ruefli, 2005)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>77</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">77</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Wiggins, Robert R.</author><author>Ruefli, Timothy W.</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Schumpeter's Ghost: Is Hypercompetition Making the Best of Times Shorter?</title><secondary-title>Strategic Management Journal</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Strategic Management Journal</full-title></periodical><pages>1249-1259</pages><volume>26</volume><keywords><keyword>Schumpeter</keyword><keyword>Austrian economics</keyword><keyword>hypercompetition</keyword><keyword>competitive advantage</keyword><keyword>short term competitive advantage</keyword><keyword>timing</keyword><keyword>time-pacing</keyword><keyword>industry</keyword><keyword>change</keyword></keywords><dates><year>2005</year></dates><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>D'Aveni</Author><Year>1994</Year><RecNum>354</RecNum><record><rec-number>354</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">354</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book">6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Richard A. D'Aveni</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Hypercompetition: Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering</title></titles><dates><year>1994</year></dates><pub-location>New York</pub-location><publisher>The Free Press</publisher><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(D'Aveni, 1994; Wiggins and Ruefli, 2005), how firms manage both threat and transition may become as relevant as how firms maintain advantage once they capture an opportunity ADDIN EN.CITE <EndNote><Cite><Author>Anderson</Author><Year>1999</Year><RecNum>643</RecNum><DisplayText>(Anderson, 1999; Eisenhardt and Bhatia, 2002)</DisplayText><record><rec-number>643</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">643</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Journal Article">17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Philip Anderson</author></authors></contributors><titles><title>Complexity Theory and Organization Science</title><secondary-title>Organization Science</secondary-title></titles><periodical><full-title>Organization Science</full-title></periodical><pages>216-232</pages><volume>10</volume><number>3</number><dates><year>1999</year></dates><label>mp</label><urls></urls></record></Cite><Cite><Author>Eisenhardt</Author><Year>2002</Year><RecNum>333</RecNum><record><rec-number>333</rec-number><foreign-keys><key app="EN" db-id="00z2wsaey2avarevdt05e5zh9vrzwexaa0pd">333</key></foreign-keys><ref-type name="Book Section">5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author>Eisenhardt, Kathleen</author><author>Bhatia, Mahesh</author></authors><secondary-authors><author>Baum, Joel</author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title>Organizational Complexity and Computation</title><secondary-title>The Blackwell Companion to Organizaitons</secondary-title></titles><pages>442-466</pages><keywords><keyword>Complexity theory</keyword><keyword>Small worlds</keyword><keyword>Edge of chaos</keyword><keyword>Loose coupling</keyword><keyword>Network</keyword><keyword>Social networks</keyword><keyword>Complex adaptive system</keyword></keywords><dates><year>2002</year></dates><pub-location>Malden, MA</pub-location><publisher>Blackwell Publishing</publisher><label>Strategy Seminar 2004, Recent</label><urls></urls></record></Cite></EndNote>(Anderson, 1999; Eisenhardt and Bhatia, 2002). We hope these findings contribute to the development of robust theory about how organizations operate in and manage such environments.Table 1. Descriptive statistics of variablesVariableConstructionObs.MeanStd. DevMinMaxMPGCity-highway miles per gallon of gasoline, U.S. EPA10,50524.56.9969WEIGHTWeight of the vehicle (pounds)10,5053,4977921,7506,000POWEREngine horsepower10,5051244341478AUTODummy var: (1) auto. trans. or (0) man. trans.10,5050.52-01ENGINECCEngine displacement in cubic centimeters10,5053,1101,4168027,538CARBDummy var: (1) carburetor or (0) electronic fuel injection10,5050.46-01EFIDummy var: (1) electronic fuel injection or (0) carburetor10,5050.54-01FFSDummy var: (1) feedback fuel system or (0) none10,5050.71-01PREDummy var: (1) obs 1978-83 or (0) obs 1984-9210,5050.27-01POSTDummy var: (1) obs 1984-92 or (0) obs 1978-8310,5050.73-01Table 2. Correlation matrix of variablesMPGWEIGHTPOWERAUTOENG CCCARBEFIFFSPREPOSTMPG1.00WEIGHT-0.851.00POWER-0.610.651.00AUTO-0.310.270.191.00ENGINECC-0.800.870.640.271.00CARB-0.130.02-0.29-0.050.191.00EFI0.13-0.020.290.05-0.19-1.001.00FFS0.23-0.090.160.03-0.21-0.700.701.00PRE-0.210.02-0.160.010.180.56-0.56-0.651.00POST0.21-0.020.16-0.01-0.18-0.560.560.65-1.001.00Table 3. Car model mean values by model yearYearObsNCARB = 1 NMPG meanWEIGHT meanPOWER mean197842042022.03,370111197943643622.23,234107198062156420.23,737121198161854222.03,664117198275463323.93,491109198379763724.73,478107198455837825.73,307107198577844825.73,376114198678632225.53,436121198780420825.63,44112419887779625.53,49913219897385925.43,52213319908022425.43,56113919918171525.43,54914519927991125.03,647152Total orWtd. Avg.10505479324.53,497124Table 4. OLS tests of explanations for last gasps dependent variable: MPG(1) (2) year*carb*pre year*carb*post year*Efi carb*pre carb*post Efiweight powerautoenginecc Model degrees of freedomResidual degrees of freedomObservationsAdjusted R2 0.346 (0.093)** 0.858 (0.090)** -0.093 (0.028)** -664.082 (183.870)** -1,678.162 (178.155)** 210.245 (54.682)** 62710,5050.93 0.801 (0.045)** 0.442 (0.043)** 0.382 (0.015)** -1,538.486 (89.347)** -826.419 (85.464)** -707.710 (28.786)** -0.006 (0.000)** -0.037 (0.001)** -1.254 (0.057)** 0.000 (0.000)** 102710,5050.97Notes: * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Standard errors adjusted for 27 automobile brand clusters. Coefficient estimates for interacted variables are interpretable without being added to other coefficients. The interacted variables create mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories for the observations in the data. Table 5. Second stages of 2SLS regressions for last gasps dependent variable: MPG(3)(4)(5)year*carb*preyear*carb*pre*pureyear*carb*pre*mixedyear*carb*post year*carb*post*ffsyear*carb*post*notffsyear*carb*post*ffs*pureyear*carb*post*ffs*mixedyear*carb*post*notffs*pureyear*carb*post*notffs*mixedyear*Efiweightpower autoenginecccarb*precarb*pre*purecarb*pre*mixedcarb*postcarb*post*ffscarb*post*notffscarb*post*ffs*purecarb*post*ffs*mixedcarb*post*notffs*purecarb*post*notffs*mixedEfiModel degrees of freedomResidual degrees of freedomObservations 1.217(0.071)** 1.483 (0.125)** 0.530(0.023)**-0.011(0.000)**-0.047 (0.002)**-1.401(0.079)**0.002(0.000)**54.336(0.871)**50.911(0.739)**57.649(0.923)** 10268,9551.231(0.072)** 1.903 (0.187)** 0.729(0.144)** 0.530(0.023)**-0.011(0.000)**-0.047 (0.002)**-1.401(0.079)**0.002(0.000)**54.336(0.871)**47.875(0.991)**56.854(1.322)**58.096(0.923)**12268,9551.023(0.168)** 1.233(0.074)** 0.550(0.197)** 1.951(0.198)**1.479(0.251)**0.688 (0.147)**0.536 (0.024)**-0.011(0.000)**-0.048 (0.003)**-1.385 (0.081)**0.002(0.000)**53.782(1.069)**54.660(0.940)**56.709(1.648)**47.419(1.076)**50.500(1.753)**57.057(1.360)**57.963(0.993)**14268,955 Notes: * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Standard errors adjusted for 27 automobile brand clusters. Coefficient estimates for interacted variables are interpretable without being added to other coefficients. The interacted variables create mutually exclusive and exhaustive categories for the observations in the data. Table 6. Firm technology choice and outcomes for major carburetor producersCarburetor companyPrimary tech choice during transitionOutcome*Eventual EFI companyDetails of outcomeAisanHybrid carburetorsSuccessful transition (partial)Aisan/DensoMerge with another firm (electronics) in Toyota family; supply an EFI componentsCarterStandard carburetorsFailure--Exit through discounted acquisition (Colt Industries) to become niche parts supplier (making helicopter parts)Ford/MotorcraftHybrid carburetorsSuccessful transitionFord/MotorcraftSurvive as captive parts division of FordHitachiHybrid carburetorsSuccessful transitionHitachi/JECSJoint venture with Bosch and emerged as major supplierHolleyStandard carburetorsFailure--Exit to niche (aftermarket supplier)Mikuni SolexStandard carburetors Failure--Exit to niche (motorcycles)KeihinStandard carburetorsFailure--Exit to niche (motorcycles); continue to supply other parts as part of Honda familyNikkiStandard carburetorsFailure--Exit through discounted acquisition (Hitachi)WeberHybrid carburetorsSuccessful transitionWeberSurvive to become EFI producer, survived as supplier to FIATGM/RochesterHybrid carburetorsSuccessful transitionGM/RochesterSurvive to become EFI producer, captive parts division of GM, survived*Performance outcomes are difficult to categorize because of the variety of firm outcomes. 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