Report No. 490-ZA Urban Sector Survey Republic of Zambia

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Report No. 490-ZA

Urban Sector Survey Republic of Zambia

(In Two Volumes)

Volume 1: Main Text

May 24, 1976

Transportation and Urban Projects Department Development Economics Department

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

FLE Copy

Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US$1 Kwacha 1 (Kl) Ngwee (n) 100 = Mwacha 1 million =

Kwacha 0.643 US$1.556 Kl

us$1,555,56o

ABBREVIATIONS

1 meter (in) 1 square meter (m2) =

1 kilometer

=

1 hectare (ha)

1 liter (1)

=

3.28 feet (ft) 10.76 square feet (sq ft) 0.62 miles (mi) 2.47 acres 0.246 US gallons (gal)

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CSO

Central Statistical Office

DDC

District Development Committee

FNDP First National Development Plan

GRZ

Government of the Republic of Zambia

IDZ

Intensive Development Zones

MOLGH Ministry of Local Government and Housing

MOE

Ministry of Education

NHA

National Housing Authority

PDC

Provincial Development Committee

SNDP Second National Development Plan

UNIP United National Independence Party

FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31

ZAMBIA

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

URBAN SECTOR SURVEY

Table of Contents

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..........******...................* i-v

INTRODUCTION * *** ***

*............................................

.

1

1. DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE .........

3

Post Independence Development Planning . ........

.. .....

3

1964 - 1970 Preparation and Execution of the

First National Development Plan ..... ....... to

3

1970 - 1974 The Second National Development

Plan and the One-Party State ................

4

The Planning Process at the National Level .......

7

The Institutional Framework for Urban and Regional

Development .......

...... . .......

.......*. *.

9

Urban Development Institutions ...................

9

Regional Development Institutions ..............

....

10

Decentralization for Urban and Regional

Development ...

.........

.......... . 10

2. URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA ........

12

Introduction .................... ***********

......... 12

Structure of the Economy

...... . . . ... ..... ... . 12

Locational Factors in Development ..

...................

13

Urban Growth . ........................

.......*.........

13

Urban Concentration *. .............

....................

14

Urban System

.......... . .....................

14

Concentration of Economic Activity .....

............... 15

Migration *.... .*****....... ..... **

...............

15

Employment .................

..............................

16

Incomes to*...*....*

...........

*........................ 18

Summary *a.............................................o...... 19

This Report was prepared by Messrs. J. English and M. Cohen (Development Economics Department). The mission visited Zambia in September 1973. The draft report was submitted to Government in July 1974. Because of uncertainty over policy on decentralization formal comments from Government were not received until Autumn 1975. The report has also been revised to incorporate the results of the 1974 sample census and to reflect major policy changes. It has not, however, been possible to update the bulk of the report and this remains essentially as initially written.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

-2-

Page No.

3. PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .................... 20

The Problem ........................................... 20 The Structure of Manufacturing ........................ 20 Scope for Decentralization of Manufacturing .... ....... 21 Need for Integrated Agricultural - Urban Development .. 23 The Long-Term Role of Agriculture ..................... 23 I?uture Population Balance ............................. 24 The Future Urban System ............................... 24 An Urban Strategy ..................................... 25 Urban-Regional Development in Tanzanian Corridor ...... 25

4. THE URBAN AREAS ..................

..................... 28

A. Cities and Municipalities ........................ 28

1. Introduction ................................ 28

2. The Structure of Towns ......................

28

3. Housing and Infrastructure ....

.............. 30

The Housing Stock ........ .. ............ 30

Post Independence Policies ..... ........ 31

Housing Development at the Local Level . 33

Costs in Site and Service Schemes ...... 34

Target Populations .........

............ 36

4. Municipal Finance ........................... 37

Sources of Revenue .........

............ 37

Central Control over Local Finance

Decisions ......... .. .............. 38

Expanding the Tax Base .......

.......... 39

General Rate Fund Positions ..... ....... 40

Issues in Municipal Finance ..... ....... 41

B. The Townships .................................... 43

1. Site and Service Schemes ....

................ 44

2. Township Finance ............................ 46

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMM1ENDATIONS ........ .. ............. 48

A. Development Policy Problems ...................... 49

The Locus of Development Planning and Project Implementation ......... .. .............. 49

Central-Local Fiscal Relations .... .......... 50

-3-

Page No.

B. Urban Policy Problems ...............

. ............

50

Land ............

............. 50

Public Finance

..........5.1..

The Role of Municipal Government Institutions 51

C. Recommendations for Bank Involvement in the

Urban Sector

..........

52

Development of Regional Centers ........... . . 52

The Major Urban Centers

.....................

53

LIST OF TABLES

1. Sectoral Distribution of Gross Domestic Product 1965 and 1974 (at 1965 prices)

2. Zambian Cities, Municipalities and Townships Population Growth 1963-1974

3. Distribution of National Urban and Rural Population by Province 1969

4. Proportion of Total Zambian Employment in Line of Rail Provinces by Sector, 1968

5. Distribution and Growth of Population by Province 1963-69 and 1969-76 (thousands)

6. Migrant Ratios, 1969 7. Distribution of Working African Male Population by

Employment Status

8. Estimated Formal and Informal Sector African Employment by Sex, 1971 and 1976

9. Male Labor Force and Economically Active Population by Province Group, 1969

10. Reported Incomes in Low-Cost and Squatter Housing Areas

11. Distribution of Sales by Purchasing Sectors, 1969 12. Means of Transport to Work by Type of Township,

Survey of Lower Income Townships - Kitwe, 1972 13. Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Landlord,

1969

14. Summary of Characteristics of Housing Stock, Urban Areas, 1969 15. Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Density of

Occupation and Number of Rooms, 1969 16. Site and Service Scheme Dwelling Completions by

Municipality, November, 1973 17. Site and Service Schemes, Monthly Charges and Estimated

Income Needed to Meet Charges by Type of Scheme and Size of Loan

- 4-

18. Site and Service Schemes: Percentage of Population Unable to Meet Charges by Type of Scheme and Size of Loan

19. Summary of General Rate Fund Finances and Assessed Valuations, Selected Local Government Units, 1972

20. Per Capita Gross Expenditures by Functions, Selected Local Government Units, 1972

21. Existing Site and Service Plots and SNDP Housing Programs-Townships in non Line-of-Rail Povinces

FIGURE

Zambia - Local Government Structure

MAPS

Zambia Zambia Zambia Zambia Zambia -

Urbnn Development (IBRD 11049R) Population Distribution (IBRD 11542) Possible Future Spatial Development (IBRD 1099R) Transportation Network (IBRD 11509) International Routes (IBRD 11510)

SUM9ARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1.

Over the past decade the Zambian economy has expanded at an average

rate of 3.7 percent per annum in real terms (less than 1 percent per capita).

The current per capita income is approximately K 400. Excluding the Republic

of South Africa,this is the second highest level in sub-saharan Africa. This

high average income however masks major income disparities and a highly dualis-

tic economy.

2.

The modern sector of the economy is dominated by the copper mining

industry which,contributes about one-third of G.D.P. and 95 percent of exports.

The opening of the mines in the early years of the century was the major impetus

to development of the economy. Expatriate workers arrived to manage the mines

and administer the country and ancillary activities developed to service the

mining sector and the attendant population. These activities were primarily

focused on serving this spatially concentrated market.

3.

As a result of this extensive use of expatriate labor, incomes in

the copper industry and related activities and in administration were high.

These activities were overwhelmingly located in the major urban areas of the

country. Physical conditions and high transport costs limited agricultural

development. During the colonial period restrictions were placed upon

migration to urban areas. Following Independence these were relaxed,and at

the same time there was a major increase in manufacturing activity,following

the break off in relations with traditional suppliers in Rhodesia and South

Africa. The result was rapid rural-urban migration. In the 1963-69 period

urban areas grew by an average of almost 10 percent per year. This growth

rate has now slowed to just over 6 percent. Currently the urban areas contain

35 percent of the population and it is anticipated that by 1980 over 40 per-

cent will be urban.

4.

The urban areas have been characterized by high levels of wage

employment, about 87 percent of males working are classified as employees.

WIage levels have been relatively high. In 1972 the average wage of African

employees in non-agricultural activities was K 1,034 (US$1,600) per annum.

Even in squatter areas median incomes are K 480 - K 600 (US$750-935) per

annum and the average household has one working male member. The bulk of

the rural population, by contrast, continues in a semi-subsistence agricul-

ture with household production at levels of K 200 (US$312) or below.

5.

The urban-rural disparities are heightened by the spatial characteris-

tics of the country's development. The mining industry is almost entirely

concentrated in a single area covering less than one percent of the country's

land area, and located in the north center of the country. The other major

urban centers are located on the rail line running south to Rhodesia. This

rail-line also traverses the principal area of relatively high crop potential

in the country. Marketed agricultural production is therefore concentrated

also along the line_of_rail.

- ii -

6.

The result has been almost complete concentration of commercial

activity in the three central line-of-rail provinces. These three provinces

contain 95 percent of all reported private sector employment and 85 percent

of public and private sector employment, while containing only 52 percent of

the population. The 5 peripheral provinces have predominantly subsistence

economy with paid employment almost entirely dependent upon the public

sector. As a consequence of income and employment disparities, persistent

net migration has occurred from the peripheral to the line-of-rail provinces,

amounting to 282,000 between 1963 and 1969. The income gap between urban

and rural areas however appears to be continuing to widen.

Regional Development

7.

Faced with these disparities between urban and rural incomes,

employment opportunities and also the availability of public and private

services, the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) has.placed major

emphasis since Independence on rural and agricultural development. A

succession of planning exercises has been followed by a series of adminis-

trative reforms,seeking to make national, provincial and district institu-

tions more effective in accomplishing economic and political objectives.

Lacking experienced administrators, these initiatives have been only partially

successful and planning staff remain heavily concentrated in Lusaka.

8.

Future rural-urban migration and the rate of urban population growth

will be determined by progress in reducing rural-urban income differentials.

The scope for such reduction is dependent upon:

(a) The long-term potential of agriculture in Zambia and its likely structure.

(b) The choice between emphasis on a commercially oriented agriculture,

likely to be relatively concentrated on the better soils near the line-of-rail,or on a direct attempt to raise incomes of those currently engaged in agriculture in more peripheral areas, through agricultural improvement in those areas.

9.

The future spatial pattern of Zambia's development will depend in part

on the policies adopted with respect to these issues. The existing economic

and spatial structure of the Zambian economy appears to offer little scope for

promoting development of lagging regions through industrially based urban growth.

This implies that urban development in the peripheral provinces will have to be

based upon agricultural development. However, the low overall population

density of the country and relatively extensive agriculture to which most of

it is suited, will mean that towns in these areas will be small and relatively

few in number.

10.

Human and capital resource constraints demand selectivity in

development programs. Given the interdependence of urban and agricultural

development in the non-line-of-rail provinces,it is desirable that these

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