Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Edible Oils ...
[Pages:18]Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Edible Oils - - Outlook 2021
Presentation at the POC Event on March 24, 2021
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
24 Mar 2021
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Company Profil and Services
? ISTA Mielke GmbH ? publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 ? ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information ? Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & meals ? Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information
? We provide a variety of reports - - the daily FLASH, the Weekly and updates from our huge statistical data base (monthly, quarterly and annual data) as well as the Oil World Annual (a 730-page compendium of world statistics), as described on
? A Chinese report in Mandarin on oilseeds & products two times a week
? Individual customer support with conference call and extracts from our detailed data bank
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Weekly Edible Oil Price Index
the five-year average 2015-2019 = 100 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
90 80 70
Jan19 Apr19 Jly19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jly20 Oct20 Jan21
January 2019 until 18 March 2021
Weekly Oilmeal Price Index
the five-year average 2015-2019 = 100 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70
Jan19 Apr19 Jly19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jly20 Oct20 Jan21
January 2019 until 18 March 2021
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3
1600 1400 1200 1000
800 600 400 200
0
PRICES : Steep Increases in 7 Months
from early Aug until March 2021
US-$ / T
+51%
+24%
+60%
+93%
+61%
+103%
Soybeans Soyameal Soya oil Sun oil Palm oil Palmkernoil
3 Aug 2020
22 March 2021
Prices on 22 March 2021 versus 3 Aug 2020 in US-$ per T :
- Arg soya oil, fob $ 1253 (vs. 782) - Black Sea sun oil $1575 (vs. 815)
- Indo. crude palmoil $ 1100 (vs. 685) - Palmkern oil, cif Rott $ 1480 (vs. 730)
- Soybeans, cif Rott. $ 582 (vs. 385) - Arg soya meal, fob $ 420 (vs. 338)
Where are we going from here? Bullish factors are to a large extent already discounted.
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Monthly Prices of Palm Oil & Crude Mineral Oil (US-$/T)
1400 1300 1200
1100 1000
900 800
700 600 500 400
300
200
Crude mineral oil
100
0
Palm oil, crude
Ja03Ja04Ja05Ja06Ja07Ja08Ja09Ja10Ja11Ja12Ja13Ja14Ja15Ja16Ja17Ja18Ja19Ja20Ja21
Monthly prices from Jan 2003 until 11 March 2021
Palm oil prices rallied to a 9-year high
Record price spread to fossil fuels
Discretionary palm oil demand for energy almost zero
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1300 1200 1100
Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T)
Soya oil, fob, Argentina Palm oil, crude, fob Indonesia
1000
900
800
700
600
500
Jly
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar Daily prices from 1 July 2020 until 22 March 2021
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Indonesian crude palm oil more than doubled from US $ 500 in May 2020 to US $ 1130 on 23 March 2021, a 9-year high
Palm oil use in biodiesel & HVO still high at 17.3 Mn T in 2020 (23% of total use)
In the 2020/21 season there is, for the first time, a simultaneous tightness of all the 6 major veg oils worldwide
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Quarterly World Palm Oil Output (Mn T)
Year-On-Year Changes
3
2,5
2 1,5
2019
1
0,5 0
2016
-0,5
2017 2018
2020 2021
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
-3
A/J O/D J/M17 J/S
A/J O/D J/M19 J/S
A/J O/D J/M21 J/S
J/M16 J/S
A/J O/DJ/M18 J/S
A/J O/D J/M20 J/S
A/J O/D
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1st bullish surprise: Lower than expected palm oil production in Jan/Sept 2020 and again in Oct/Dec 2020 and in early 2021. Falling stocks (despite corona-related consumption losses).
World palm oil stocks are currently at a multi-year low and represent only 15.6% of annual usage.
More info is available on
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17 OILS & FATS : World Production (Mn T)
80
70
Palm oil
60
50
Soya oil
40
30
4 Animal Fats
9 Other oils
20
Rape oil
Sun oil
10
0 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21F
In 2020 palm oil accounted for 32% and soya oil for 25% of world production
Palm oil production has lost its growth momentum. Next 5-10 years: palm oil growth to slow by 20-25%
Supply & demand changes of palm & soya oils are key price-determining factors for edible veg oil complex
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
06/07
PALM OIL : World Production
Annual Change (Mn T)
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F October / September
World production of palm oil likely to rebound by 3.2 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2020/21 (but not by as much as four years ago) with Indonesia +3.3 Mn, but Malaysia down 0.5 Mn T
Low opening stocks (-2.5 Mn T) will limit the supply growth to 0.7 Mn T
Only moderate price setback 2021.
Labour shortage (production losses) a major constraint. Rising investments in mechanisation likely in 2021 and 2022
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PALM OIL: Year-on-Year Change in World Consumption 9 8 Mn T 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F
Oct ober/ Sept ember
Prospects of only a moderate recovery in world palm oil supplies and consumption will limit the price decline for the remainder of 2021
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Big Production Losses in Sunflower Complex
2nd bullish blow:
Drought in July/Sept 2020 severely damaged sunflowerseed crops in the Black Sea region World sunseed output down 5.5 Mn T in 20/21
in Russia down 2.1 Mn in Ukraine down 2.4 Mn Lower oil content World production of sun oil down even 3.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2020/21. Sun oil exports down 2.9 Mn T.
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Big Production Losses in Sunflower Complex
Weekly Prices of Sun Oil & Soya Oil (US-$/T)
2000 1800
For nearest forward shipment
Sun oil, fob Black Sea (Y1) Prem. /discounts (Y2)
900 800
1600
Soya oil, Arg., fob (Y1)
700
1400
600
1200
500
1000
400
Skyrocketing sun oil prices trigger rationing of consumption
Demand shifts have been price-supportive for soya and palm oils
800
300
600
200
400
100
200
0
0
-100
Oct19 Ja20
Apr
Jly
Oct Ja21 Mar
Weekly prices from Oct 2019 until 19 March 2021
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
RAPESEED & CANOLA
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
70 65
Production
60 55 50 45
40 35
30
Harvested Area
25
20
15
01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F
3rd Blow: Tightness in rape oil.
A declining trend in world production since the 2013/14 season
Rapeseed cultivation has lost attractiveness in the European Union and China
High import demand
But prospects point to a price-driven recovery in the years ahead
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W orld Output & Consum ption of 10 O ilseeds, M n T
6 00
5 50
D isa ppe aranc e
Pr odu ctio n
5 00
4 50
4 00
3 50
3 00
2 50
2 00
0 6/07 0 8/09 1 0/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 2 0/21
4th blow in soybeans & oil
Within 5 months the global soybean balance turned from surplus to tightness.
Downward revisions of US, Indian, Argentine and Brazilian crops
Huge Chinese demand
Global production deficits - of 15 Mn T in 2019/20 - of 12 Mn T in 2020/21
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Thomas Mielke, for more info
POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T)
200
180
160
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
140
120
100
80
60
U.S.A.
40
20
0 75/76 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/21
Detrimental weather, partly unusual dryness and partly excessive moisture have sharply reduced soybean crops in S.America
My S. Amer. crop estimates are 15 Mn T below potential with this year`s area
My latest estimates in Mn T for early 2021: Brazil 131 (still too high?) Argentina 44 (too high?) Paraguay 9
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CBOT : Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
1500 1400 1300
May and November 2021 positions
May 2021 Nov 2021
1200
1100
1000
900
800
Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar Daily futures from 1 Sep 2020 until 22 March 2021
U.S.A. : Monthly Exports of Soybeans (M n T) 12
20/21
10
estim ated exports
19/20 8
6
4
2
0 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun July Aug
Huge disposals in USA. Exports in Sep/Feb 54.5 Mn T or 87% of total (vs. 30.4 Mn)
In Sept 2021 stocks at 7-year low in the US and at 5-year low worldwide.
Word demand shift to S.America from March. What will China do?
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