Grain Rice - Home | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

RICE

OVERVIEW FOR 2020/21

Global rice production and consumption are forecast higher this month primarily on a larger crop and higher domestic use in China. Global trade is forecast up with higher imports for Bangladesh, while larger exports are forecast for India.

OVERVIEW FOR 2019/20

Global rice production is virtually unchanged this month. Global trade is raised, with stronger demand from West Africa and the Middle East. India exports are now at a record while China and Vietnam exports are reduced.

$/MT

RICE PRICES

700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300

Weekly FOB Long Grain Rice Export Quotes: Last 12 Months

United States India

Thailand Pakistan

Vietnam Uruguay

Global: Over the past month, Western Hemisphere prices remained elevated well above those of Asian suppliers with U.S. quotes at $625/ton and Uruguayan quotes at $620/ton. Thai quotes continued to rise to $527/ton on continued currency strength. Vietnamese quotes rose to $514/ton on tight supplies prior to the February harvest. Pakistani quotes escalated to $438/ton, while Indian quotes rose to $370/ton, reflecting rising demand from Bangladesh.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

8

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

MARKET FEATURES

Philippines Rice Import Forecast Cut Amid Larger Production

Philippines Rice Imports

(July/June Marketing Year) 4.0

Philippines Rice Production

(July/June Marketing Year) 12.5

Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons

12.0 3.0

11.5 2.0

11.0

1.0 10.5

0.0 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

10.0 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21

In 2018/19, the Philippines became the largest rice importer, following the removal of quantitative restrictions on its imports. However, in 2020/21 imports are set to decline for the second year in a row amid higher production, government interventions, and high prices from its traditional suppliers.

Production within the Philippines is estimated to be larger in 2020/21, rising slightly to 12.0 million tons on higher area and yields. The Philippines Department of Agriculture is implementing programs to boost production through better quality seeds, machinery, farm credit, and extension through the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund. 1

Although no longer maintaining quantitative restrictions, the government has maintained a role in regulating trade by implementing policies related to importing licensing and the timing of license distribution. The Philippine government has slowed the distribution of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) import clearances in recent months, which in turn has slowed import pace in the first half of the marketing year compared to the previous year. The government also recently shortened the length of time between the issuance of the SPS licenses and shipment. With the additional requirements, rice shipped from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, excluding Burma, will need to arrive within 35 days, and within 65 days if sent from Burma and other countries.

High export prices for Thailand and Vietnam rice are also lessening rice purchases by the Philippines. Primary rice exporters to the Philippines are from ASEAN partners since they face lower import tariffs compared to other countries. Typically, Thailand and Vietnam are the largest suppliers to the Philippines due to their proximity and competitive prices. Both Thailand and Vietnam had droughtreduced rice crops in 2019/20 that continue to limit exportable supplies at the beginning of 2020/21.

The Philippines is expected to continue being a large rice importer. Still, improved production, government policies that constrain trade, and record high prices from traditional suppliers are key factors limiting imports this year. As a result, the Philippines is forecast to fall to the number two spot in 2021 as the largest global rice importer after the European Union.

1 For more information on production, please see the World Agricultural Production January 2021 Report.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

9

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

Million metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Bangladesh Boosts Rice Imports as Domestic Prices Rise

Bangladesh Rice Imports

(May - April Marketing Year)

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

$/MT

Bangladesh Wholesale Rice Prices

May 2010-Dec 2020

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300

May-2010 May-2011 May-2012 May-2013 May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020

Source: FAS PSD

Source: FAO Food Price Monitoring and Analysis

Bangladesh is expected to return to the global market as a significant rice importer in 2020/21. Reduced production due to unfavorable weather has resulted in higher domestic prices, spurring purchases from the global market. Local marketing year 2020/21 imports have been revised up this month by a half million tons to 700,000 tons. Bangladesh is the third largest producer of rice globally, but fluctuations in production and domestic prices cause it to enter and exit the international market in significant ways.

For 2020/21, Bangladesh rice production is forecast down 2 percent due to inclement weather and flooding that impacted the Boro harvest in May 2020 and excessive rain that impacted the Aman and Aus growing seasons.2 These production factors, combined with a prohibitive 62.5 percent tariff on imported rice, resulted in prices rising by 37 percent from January to December 2020.

The Bangladesh government has responded to the situation by tendering for rice imports and lowering the import tariff. The Bangladesh State Grain Agency issued and bought its first rice tender in 3 years for 50,000 tons in November 2020 and has continued to issue further tenders. In addition, in December Bangladesh lowered its rice import tariff from 62.5 percent to 25 percent which makes imported rice from India extremely competitive for private sector buyers. Indian export prices are $360/ton (f.o.b.), well below the current Bangladeshi price of $560/ton. Despite concerns about the current availability of shipping containers, which is impacting rice exports from Vietnam and Thailand, India can export to Bangladesh via rail and truck. Competitive Indian prices combined with lower Bangladeshi tariff rates should encourage private sector importing activity on top of government tenders.

2 For more information, see the World Agricultural Production November 2020 Report

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

10

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

TRADE CHANGES IN 2021 (1,000 MT)

Country

Bangladesh

Vietnam China India

Attribute Previous

Imports

100

Imports

Exports Exports

400

2,700 13,000

Current

1,000

500 2,500 14,000

Change

900

100 -200 1,000

Reason

Large government tenders and the reduction of import tariffs spurring purchases from India High prices resulting in larger shipments of paddy rice from Cambodia and broken rice from India Reduced competitiveness relative to India in African markets Strong demand from Bangladesh

TRADE CHANGES IN 2020 (1,000 MT)

Country China India

Vietnam

Attribute Previous

Exports Exports

2,700 13,700

Exports

6,200

Current 2,400

14,400

6,100

Change Reason

-300 Near-final data 700 Large fourth-quarter shipments

Sluggish shipments amid high prices and reduced container -100 availability

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

11

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

ENDNOTES

REGIONAL TABLES North America: Canada, Mexico, the United States

Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama

Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands

South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela

EU: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Effective January 1, 2021, the separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union is complete, including trade between both entities. USDA will continue using the term "European Union" to mean the countries involved in the previous customs union, i.e., EU27+UK, from January 2021 through April 2021 for grains PSDs. Starting in May 2021 with the release of 2021/22 data, grains PSDs will reflect EU27 and UK separately. See below for notes on prior years' EU Consolidated data.

Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar, Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland

Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan

Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia

Sub-Saharan Africa: all African countries except North Africa

East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia, Taiwan

South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives

Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam

Oceania: Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

16

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

OTHER NOTES

Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main harvest, when the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed begins a country's LMY for that commodity (2020/21 starts in 2020); except for summer grains in certain Southern Hemisphere countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second year begins the LMY (2020/21 starts in 2021). Key exporter LMY's are:

Wheat Argentina (Dec/Nov) Australia (Oct/Sep) Canada (Aug/Jul) China (Jul/Jun) European Union (Jul/Jun) India (Apr/Mar) Kazakhstan (Sep/Aug) Russia (Jul/Jun) Turkey (Jun/May) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) United States (Jun/May)

Corn Argentina (Mar/Feb) Brazil (Mar/Feb) Russia (Oct/Sep) South Africa (May/Apr) Ukraine (Oct/Sep) United States (Sep/Aug)

Barley Australia (Nov/Oct) Canada (Aug/Jul) European Union (Jul/Jun) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) Russia (Jul/Jun) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) United States (Jun/May)

Sorghum Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Mar/Feb) United States (Sep/Aug)

For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website (): go to Reports, Reference Data, and then Data Availability.

Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.

Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local marketing year exports. Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however, reflect food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste only.

Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables contain Trade Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for analytical comparisons: wheat is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.

EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union (EU27 plus UK) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through 1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for grains are no longer maintained in the official USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10, plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to 1999/00.

Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

17

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

Unaccounted: This term includes grain in transit, reporting discrepancies in some countries, and trade to countries outside the USDA database.

The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Global Market Analysis, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Washington, DC 20250, prepared this publication. Information is gathered from official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attach?s and Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.

Note: For further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production January 2021. This publication is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home Page. The address is:

Graham Soley Amy Gaito

Rachel Trego Adolfo Escoto Jadon Marianetti

Yoonhee Macke Kevin Min

(202) 772-4235

(202) 720-1073 (202) 720-5237 (202) 690-4199 (202) 720-0626

Graham.Soley@ Amy.Gaito@

Wheat Wheat

Rachel.Trego@ Adolfo.Escoto@ Jadon.Marianetti@

Wheat/Rice Rice Rice

Yoonhee.Macke@ Kevin.Min1@

Coarse Grains Coarse Grains

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

18

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

DATA TABLES

Page Intentionally Left Blank

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

19

Global Market Analysis

January 2021

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download