Economic and Market Report - European Automobile Manufacturers Association

Economic and Market Report

EU Automotive Industry

Full�\year 2019

May 2020

CONTENTS

EU economic outlook ..................................................................................................................... 2

Passenger cars................................................................................................................................ 4

Registrations .............................................................................................................................. 4

World ...................................................................................................................................... 4

The European Union ............................................................................................................... 6

Production .................................................................................................................................. 8

World ...................................................................................................................................... 8

The European Union .............................................................................................................. 11

Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 12

Imports .................................................................................................................................. 13

Exports .................................................................................................................................. 14

Commercial vehicles...................................................................................................................... 15

Registrations ............................................................................................................................. 15

The European Union .............................................................................................................. 15

Production ................................................................................................................................ 20

World .................................................................................................................................... 20

Trade .........................................................................................................................................22

Imports .................................................................................................................................. 23

Exports ................................................................................................................................. 24

ACEA Economic and Market Report �C Full�\year 2019

1

EU ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

In 2019, overall economic activity in the European Union continued its path of steady and moderate

growth. The economy expanded by 1.5% last year �C the seventh consecutive year of growth �C albeit

at a more moderate pace. However, the outlook for the remainder of 2020, as well as for 2021, has

changed dramatically, as the COVID�\19 virus continued to spread and governments were forced to

take extreme preventive measures, which have seen large tracts of the economy shut down.

Global demand, supply chains, labour markets, industrial production and international trade have

all been heavily impacted. According to the European Commission��s latest forecast, EU GDP is set

to contract by 7.4% in 2020 before growing by 6.1% in 2021, assuming that the pandemic remains

under control and that it��s possible to progressively ease the lockdown measures. In addition, the

extraordinary monetary and fiscal measures implemented at national and EU levels should help the

economy withstand the immediate effects of the crisis.

Sluggish global demand, combined with rising unemployment and limited prospects for wage

increases, are likely to bring downward pressure on inflation. Furthermore, the pandemic has

severely impacted large parts of the energy sector; with over three billion people worldwide asked

to remain at home, demand for oil has collapsed and prices have almost halved. As a result, the

European Commission significantly revised its annual estimate for inflation in the EU downwards.

Overall inflation (HICP1) is forecast to fall from 1.4% in 2019 to 0.2% in 2020 and then to increase to

1.1% in 2021 as oil prices bounce back.

After reaching its lowest level in more than a decade in 2019 (6.7%), the EU unemployment rate is

set to increase this year, as the COVID�\19 pandemic and the subsequent containment measures

heavily affect Europe��s labour market. However, EU and national policy measures have been

implemented to limit job losses during the lockdown period, such as short�\time work schemes,

wage subsidies for employees and measures to boost liquidity for businesses. Assuming these

measures prove effective, the fall in employment this year is likely to be contained: unemployment

in the EU is expected to increase to 9% in 2020 and then decrease to 7.9% in 2021.

Table 1: EU2 forecast

2019

2020

2021

GDP growth (%)

1.5

�\7.4

6.1

Inflation (%)

1.4

0.6

1.3

Unemployment rate (%)

6.7

9.0

7.9

SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROPEAN ECONOMIC FORECAST, SPRING 2020

1

2

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

EU27 (excluding the United Kingdom)

ACEA Economic and Market Report �C Full�\year 2019

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Figure 1: EU GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 | by country

SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROPEAN ECONOMIC FORECAST, SPRING 2020

ACEA Economic and Market Report �C Full�\year 2019

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PASSENGER CARS

REGISTRATIONS

WORLD

The European passenger car market recorded modest growth during 2019 (+0.4%), recovering from

a negative performance in the first half of the year. New car sales remained above 18 million units,

with a global market share of 24.2%. Demand was supported by strong performances in Ukraine

(+17.6%), Kazakhstan and Belarus. The EU (+1.2%) also contributed to the upturn in the region,

thanks to solid performances in major Central European markets. In Russia, however, new car sales

dropped (�\2.7%), while in Turkey an increase in loan interest rates caused a sharp decline (�\20.4%)

in domestic demand.

New car demand in the United States contracted by 3.2% in 2019 over the previous year.

Nevertheless, the country increased its share of the global passenger car market from 17.6% to 18%

over the period. As the US accounts for 84% of the region��s passenger car sales volume, North

America overall mirrored this negative trend, posting a 3.8% year�\on�\year decline.

In South America, 2019 results were 5.2% lower, as passenger car sales losses in Argentina �C where

car demand almost halved during the year �C were not offset by gains in Brazil (+8.3%).

In 2019, Japanese passenger car sales fell 1.8% compared to 2018, as the impact of the consumption

tax increase in October 2019 was not offset by the various supporting schemes aimed at sustaining

demand. Sales also declined in South Korea, by 2.0%, to slightly less than 1.5 million units.

Passenger car sales in China decreased by 8.9% during the year to 21.2 million units, continuing a

downward trend that started in 2018 following almost three decades of uninterrupted growth.

Rising trade tensions with the US and a general economic slowdown undermined consumer

confidence. As a result, China's share of global car sales decreased from 29.4% in 2018 to 28.2%,

although the country maintained its position as the largest automobile market worldwide.

Last year, the Indian passenger car market collapsed and posted a double�\digit drop of 11.3%. This

was mainly due to rising ownership costs and the crisis in financial sector that impacted consumer

credit.

In 2019 overall, nearly 75 million passenger cars were sold worldwide, 4.9% fewer than the previous

year.

ACEA Economic and Market Report �C Full�\year 2019

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