Michigan Automotive Industry Update
5/16/2019
Michigan Automotive Industry Update
Kristin Dziczek ? Vice President, Industry, Labor, & Economics (ILE) Group Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference
17 May 2019
THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR)
Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit ) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums.
RESEARCH
Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry.
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Industry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections.
CONNECT
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5/16/2019
AGENDA
? Sales & Production ? Employment ? Automaker Investments ? GM Announcements ? Trade Update
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Sales & Production Overview
Areas to Watch
? Michigan's share of U.S. vehicle production increased to 18.8%
? Michigan's engine production will decrease and transmission production will increase over the next few years
? Electrified vehicle market share increased to 4.4%, the highest level ever recorded
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Positive Factors in the CAR Forecast
Projected moderate U.S. economic output growth in 2019 Historically low U.S. unemployment rates Relatively low oil prices continue through 2020 Underlying nominal wage growth continues High levels of consumer confidence were reached in Q4 2018, and Solid new housing starts and home prices rebounding to pre-recession levels
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5/16/2019
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Risks to the Forecast
Section 232 Steel & Aluminum Tariffs
Section 301 China Tariffs U.S.-China Talks
China Auto Sales Slowdown USMCA Ratification ?
New ? Business
Models ? Competitors ? Technologies
Section 232 Auto & Parts Tariffs
U.S.-Japan Talks
Japan Economic Slowdown
U.S.-EU Talks BREXIT
U.S.-U.K. Talks
Recession?
Geopolitical Risks
Consumer Confidence Interest Rates
UAW Negotiations/Strike
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5/16/2019
CAR's U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast 2019-2025
U.S. Sales
17.4
17.5
17.2
17.2
17.6 17.7 17.3
16.8
16.8
16.5 16.4
U.S. LV Sales in Millions
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
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Source: CAR Research, January 2019
Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Monthly SAAR
U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales and SAAR:
April 2016 to April 2019
2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Sales
SAAR
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
20 16.43 18
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Apr-19
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Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research
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5/16/2019
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
Percent Change (YTD) Through April: 2019 vs. 2018
Total
Light Trucks
Passenger Cars
-8.5%
-10%
-8%
Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research
-2.2%
-6%
-4%
-2%
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
5,323,276 -122,134 Total
100%
3,719,088
0.7%
+26,807 Truck
69.9%
1,604,188
-148,941 Cars
0%
2%
30.1%
9
Percent Change in Sales of Light Vehicles Per OEM:
YTD Through April: 2019 vs. 2018
TOTAL LV Sales
-2.2%
Hyundai- Kia
Honda
1.5%
Ford
-2.4%
FCA
-3.9%
Toyota
-4.8%
GM
-6.0%
Nissan/Mitsubishi -6.7%
-8%
-6%
Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
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3.7%
4%
6%
5,322,611
-121,614 TOTAL LV Sales
100%
396,794
14,324 Hyundai- Kia
7.5%
495,562
7,370
Honda
9.3%
761,134
-18,820
Ford
14.3%
667,198
-27,247
FCA
12.5%
727,580
-36,809
Toyota
13.7%
896,013
-56,803
GM
16.8%
510,579
-36,950 Nissan/Mitsubishi
9.6%
10
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