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TheHaysWay NFL Mock Draft 1.0Arizona Cardinals- DK Metcalf, WR, Ole MissPersonally, I think the Cardinals should trade down. Most of the top players in this draft play defense. While they could use a little defensive help, they REALLY need offensive help. They finished dead last in the NFL in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, 1st downs per game, 3rd down conversion rate, 4th down conversion rate, and time of possession. The team brought in offensive genius and QB whisperer Kliff Kingsbury as coach to help with those abysmal numbers, but you can only do so much with a talent pool that is so shallow, it’s actually a mountain. That doesn’t make any sense, but Kingsbury does have a mountain to climb. Their greatest offensive weapon is WR Larry Fitzgerald—who will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer—but he’s 35 years old now, and every offseason there are stories about whether he’ll retire. I don’t think the Cardinals will reach for QB Kyler Murray because they have second-year QB Josh Rosen, but I do think Kingsbury will reach for an offensive player if he doesn’t trade down. Metcalf has the potential to replace Fitzgerald (if that’s even possible) and he looks like The Hulk. I’m serious, look up his picture; He’s bigger than Aaron Donald.San Francisco 49ers- Josh Allen, EDGE, KentuckyThe 49ers finished 28th in points allowed per game. A better pass rush usually helps with that in the NFL, so the 49ers will take the best pass rusher on the board.New York Jets- Josh Jacobs, RB, AlabamaLike the Cardinals, the Jets may reach for an offensive player. They finished 2nd-to-last in yards per game, 1st downs per game, and 3rd down conversion rate. They also finished 3rd-to-last in time of possession. Those stats all point to them needing a chain-mover—which they will definitely get if they win the Le’Veon Bell sweepstakes—but if they don’t, Jacobs is the best RB on the board.Oakland Raiders- Quinnen Williams, DT, AlabamaThe Raiders have many needs, but I’m guessing new GM Mike Mayock would love it if the guy who some consider to be the best player in this class (he’s currently tied for highest-graded player at ) fell to him at number four. Of course, it’s a nice bonus that he should help with the Raiders’ last place finish in points allowed per game and yards allowed per play.Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio StThe Bucs finished 2nd-to-last in turnover margin and points allowed per game. Bosa’s electrifying speed and hit power off the edge could help cause a few more fumbles.New York Giants- Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi StAlmost every mock draft out there has the G-men taking Dwayne Haskins in this spot to be Eli Manning’s heir. If you read my post about the Giants’ QB situation, you know that I think the Giants have their eyes on a few later-round QB prospects. Furthermore, the offense wasn’t as bad as everyone thought it was last year; Did you know the Giants finished in the top half of the league in points per game and yards per play? The biggest problem with the offense was time of possession per game: a category in which they finished 29th. That can be helped by the defense forcing opposing offenses off the field. The Giants have needs at every level of the defense, but a good pass rush can minimize those other weaknesses, particularly for a blitz-heavy defensive coordinator such as James Boettcher. Enter Sweat.Jacksonville Jaguars- Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio StIf the Giants pass on the top-graded QB in this class, the Jaguars won’t do the same. That is exactly what they need after Blake Bortles drove one of bettors’ favorite teams into the ground last season. Just a reminder: this team nearly toppled the New England Patriots in last season’s AFC Championship game, and they were the only team in their division this season that wasn’t still in the playoff race during the final week of the regular season.Detroit Lions- TJ Hockenson, TE, IowaI’m hesitant to give the Lions a first-round TE after the Eric Ebron experience in Detroit. But the Lions finished bottom-10 in the league in points per game, yards per game, yards per play, and 3rd down conversion rate. They need a chain-moving red zone threat, and Hockenson is their best option in the draft.Buffalo Bills- Jonah Williams, OL, AlabamaThe Bills need to give second-year QB Josh Allen and their surprisingly good defense some help if they are going to return to the playoffs. So, they grab the best blocker in this class.Denver Broncos- Kyler Murray, QB, OklahomaThis one is a flyer pick that I really love. GM John Elway is a Hall of Famer for his playing career as QB for the Broncos and yet, he can’t find a franchise QB to save his life. After he got post-prime Peyton Manning to come to town—who lasted long enough to let his defense win a Super Bowl—Elway tried to give Brock Osweiler a massive contract after half a good season, wasted a 1st-round draft pick on Paxton Lynch, and signed Case Keenum to a sizeable contract in free agency after one good season. I think Elway is starting to see his job slip away, and as such, will decide to overcome his old-school belief that big QBs are the way to go after seeing so many fail. In line with that thought process, he shocks the world by taking the 5’10” Murray.Cincinnati Bengals- Rashan Gary, DE, MichiganThe Bengals finished last in yards allowed per game and 2nd-to-last in opponent 3rd down conversion rate. So, they take the 2nd-best defensive player left on the board. The best defensive player left on the board has character issues, and the Bengals had plenty of those under Marvin Lewis’ reign. Zac Taylor will bring a new attitude to the team.Green Bay Packers- Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi StI wasn’t sure what to do with the Packers because they were thoroughly average across the statistical spectrum this season. With the new coach in town, I’m just giving them the smart pick: the best player left on the board. I don’t think Simmons character concerns will be a problem in Green Bay because anybody who doesn’t buy into Aaron Rodgers’ attitude is sure to be shipped out of town in a hurry, especially with a rookie head coach in town who will likely be TERRIFIED of getting in Rodgers’ way.Miami Dolphins- Marquise Brown, WR, OklahomaLike the Packers, the Dolphins were consistent across the statistical spectrum. Unlike the Packers, the Dolphins were thoroughly BELOW average. They finished bottom-10 in the league in 12 of the 17 statistical categories I analyzed. Therefore, they, like the Packers, will take the best player on the board. The Dolphins lack star power, so a flashy, skill-position pick like Brown should do them some good.Atlanta Falcons- Ed Oliver, DT, HoustonNearly everybody is picking Oliver to the Falcons. I read an article that said it was the closest thing to a “lock” in the first round. My scenario has him as the top player left on the board at the time the Falcons pick, so it seems like a natural pick to me, too.Washington Redskins- Drew Lock, QB, MissouriThe Redskins have already announced that Alex Smith will miss next season. They need to draft a QB. That’s not to say Colt McCoy won’t come out of training camp with the starting job, but they need to elevate McCoy’s play a little and make him earn the job. Plus, McCoy was quick to go down last season, so the Redskins need a quality insurance policy.Carolina Panthers- Greedy Williams, CB, LSUThe Panthers are a solid team. If it weren’t for Cam Newton’s shoulder, they likely would’ve made the playoffs. So, I’ve got them going best player on the board. Every team needs more CBs.Cleveland Browns- Andre Dillard, OT, Washington StThe Browns are still searching for a replacement for future Hall of Fame LT Joe Thomas. Greg Robinson (last year’s starter) was more of a stop-gap, and I like Dillard to take Robinson’s job. Dillard was a three-year starter for the Cougars.Minnesota Vikings- Devin White, LB, LSUThe Vikings don’t seem too interested in keeping Anthony Barr around. I think Barr has been a bigger part of the Vikes defense than they care to admit and even though White is an inside linebacker and Barr is an outside linebacker, White’s talent is undeniable. He’s one of my favorite players in this draft as his game is predicated on elite speed. I think the Vikings can coach either him or current inside linebacker Eric Kendricks into playing outside (some of Kendricks’ draft profiles in 2015 actually suggested he could play outside linebacker) and if they do, that duo will likely be even better than the Kendricks-Barr duo has been.Tennessee Titans- AJ Brown, WR, Ole MissThe Titans had one of the best defenses in the league last season—they finished top-10 in 5 of the 8 exclusively defensive statistical categories I looked at—their offense was less than stellar, finishing bottom-10 in 4 of the 8 exclusively offensive statistical categories I looked at. This team came a Week 17 loss to the Colts away from making the playoffs only because their offense was the most disciplined in the league (they were the least penalized offense in the league). That shows they’ve got quality players on the line, what they lack is star power at the skill positions. While the re-emergence of RB Derrick Henry in the last month of the season was a promising sign, they need to improve their passing attack. While I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them take a QB here to move on from Marcus Mariota, I think it’s more likely they add the best receiving threat left on the board to help him out.Pittsburgh Steelers- Deandre Baker, CB, GeorgiaThe Steelers have a track record of missing swings to shore up their secondary. One of those recent misses is former first-round pick Artie Burns (who hasn’t been horrible but hasn’t lived up to his draft pick). It’s not too often a player stays through his senior year at a high-level SEC school like Georgia, but Baker did, and I think the Steelers will take him for his experience here. He knows how to play outside and in the slot.Seattle Seahawks- Dexter Lawrence, DT, ClemsonDid you know the Seahawks finished 1st in the NFL in turnover margin? That’s a very good stat to be the best in, as teams usually don’t win games when they lose the turnover margin. It’s how they lost their 2 matchups against the eventual NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams by a combined 7 points. That said, they don’t need a ballhawk and it’s clear at this point Russell Wilson is basically all the offense they need. This pick should help with their worst statistical category: yards allowed per play. It was the only statistical category I looked at in which they finished bottom-10 in the league.Baltimore Ravens- Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas StI wanted to give QB Lamar Jackson a receiving threat here, but I don’t think there’s one left on the board with enough skill to go this early. So, they grab the most experienced offensive lineman left on the board to further strengthen the option attack that Jackson runs so well (I’m pretty sure he started 50 games in college? I’m having issues finding the stat). Does anyone else see the Ravens as a potential dark-horse candidate to land Le’Veon Bell?Houston Texans- Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, ClemsonBold prediction here: the Texans let Jadeveon Clowney walk. Therefore, they immediately replace him with Ferrell. Come on, you don’t actually think the Texans will be smart enough to draft an offensive lineman to save QB Deshaun Watson, do you?Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears)- Jawaan Taylor, OT, FloridaAs I previously stated, the Raiders have many needs. They fill an offensive one here with the best lineman left on the board.Philadelphia Eagles- Julian Love, CB, Notre DameIf you didn’t know, the Eagles started somewhere in the neighborhood of a gazillion different CBs last season (9. They started NINE DIFFERENT CBS). I’m sure the Eagles are firm believers that you can never have too many CBs, and this pick will likely reflect that.Indianapolis Colts- Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana TechThe Colts defense took massive strides last season thanks to defensive rookie of the year LB Darius Leonard. That said, they were the 2nd-most penalized defense in the league. So, they grab the experienced redshirt senior who played in 49 games for the…Bulldogs…did y’all know LTU’s mascot is the Bulldogs?Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys)- Jachai Polite, EDGE, FloridaThe Raiders will be hard pressed to make up for their mind-boggling decision to trade away Khalil Mack, one of the best pass rushers in the league. But, they have to try to replace him. Poor Jachai Polite is going to have some big shoes to fill.Los Angeles Chargers- Cody Ford, OL, OklahomaThe Chargers were really good last year. It’s too bad the Chiefs are in their division. For the record, I do think the Chiefs will take a step back next year because their offense was the most penalized offense in the league (lack of discipline always catches up with a team in the long run). Also, defensive coordinators now have a whole offseason to gameplan for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Like the Chiefs, the Chargers’ biggest weakness statistically was a 21st place finish in offensive penalties. Rookie linemen aren’t known to help with discipline, but the Chargers are a strong team outside of that so they might as well give Ford a shot. Although, don’t be surprised to see the Chargers take a safety here because I’m guessing they liked how their safeties looked playing linebacker against the Ravens’ explosive run game in the playoffs and I’m guessing they’ll want more of that.Kansas City Chiefs- Christian Wilkins, DT, ClemsonThe Chiefs may have the least disciplined offense, but dang their defense is terrible. That’s why they fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton and hired Steve Spagnuolo (a move I am absolutely jealous of as a Giants fan. I am not ashamed to admit that I miss Coach Spags). They probably need a LB more, so I actually think I would’ve been better off projecting Devin Bush here, but Wilkins is the best player on the board so I’m keeping him here.Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints)- Devin Bush, LB, MichiganMore defense for the Packers. Rodgers can make whoever is on offense work, but his defense must back him up. The Draft Network’s profile on him says he “has the…range to play any position on the second level” so maybe he can replace Clay Matthews at outside linebacker, who the Packers seem interested in letting walk in free agency.Los Angeles Rams- Jerry Tillery, DL, Notre DameThe Rams won’t resign Suh and the playoffs showed how important he was, so they draft a defensive lineman to try to replace him.New England Patriots- Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio StThe Pats finished 21st in yards allowed per game, so they snag the best defensive player left on the board.All statistics and other facts came from: ................
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