Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 30, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

US Government Bond Yield

1

US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield

2

US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread

3

US Municipal Yield & Spread

4

Bond Yield

5-6

May 30, 2021 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Government Bond Yield

Figure 1.

18

18

US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD

16

(percent, monthly)

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2

Apr

2



0

0

53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

6.0

6.0

10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD

5.5

(percent, daily)

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

Latest (1.58)

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

5/28

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 1 / May 30, 2021 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US Mortgage Rate & Bond Yield

Figure 3.

7.5

7.5

US INTEREST RATES

7.0 (percent)

7.0

6.5

30-Year Mortgage Rate (3.12)

6.5

6.0

10-Year Treasury Yield (1.58)

6.0

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.0

4.5

4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

5/27

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

5/28

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

.5



.0

.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 4.

400

400

30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE MINUS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND YIELD

(basis points, daily)

350

350

300

300

Spread (196)

250

250

200

12/28 200

150

150

100

100



50

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: The Wall Street Journal and Federal Reserve Board.

Page 2 / May 30, 2021 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



US High-Yield Corporate Bond Yield & Spread

Figure 5.

30

YIELD ON US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS (percent, daily)

30 Latest (4.22)

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

5/28



0

0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Figure 6.

2400

2400

YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND

2200

(basis points, daily)

2200

2000

2000

1800

1800

1600

1600



1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

400

400

5/28

200

200

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

Page 3 / May 30, 2021 / Market Briefing: US Bond Yields

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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