MECA Market Growth Road Map - Population Data



MECA Market Growth Road Map – Population Data

June 2007

|Regulatory Item |Population Data |Notes |

|LDVs/LDTs |

|Tier 2 |Total North American LDV/LDT production (2002): 16,196,853 | |

|LEV II |-By country: | |

|ZEV |U.S.: 12,001,302 | |

| |Canada: 2,513,836 | |

| |Mexico: 1,681,715 | |

| |-By vehicle type: | |

| |North America car: 7,443,976 | |

| |North America truck: 8,752,877 | |

| |(2002 Market Data Book, Automotive News) | |

| | | |

| |U. S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2005 totaled approximately 17 million| |

| |units with passenger cars representing 48.5% of sales, light-duty | |

| |trucks 51.5% of sales | |

| | | |

| |Total number of U.S. registered passenger cars (2004): 136,430,651 | |

| |(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2006, Bureau of | |

| |Transportation Statistics) | |

| | | |

| |Total number of truck sales in U.S in 2006 (Classes 3-7): 312,244 | |

| |(Source: Light & Medium Truck, November 2006) | |

| | | |

| |ARB projects new vehicle sales of gasoline PZEVs in California to be | |

| |approximately 750,000 in 2012. | |

| |ARB projects new vehicle sales of AT PZEVs in California to be | |

| |approximately 150,000 in 2012. | |

| |(Source: ARB) | |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| |Diesel vs. Gasoline Registration: January – June 2006 | |

| |Gasoline Diesel | |

| |Class 3: 25.5% 74.5% | |

| |Class 4: 41% 59% | |

| |Class 5: 12% 88% | |

| |Class 6: 24% 76% | |

| |Class 7: 1% 99% | |

| |(Source: Light & Medium Truck, November 2006) | |

| | | |

| |2006 Med. & Heavy Duty Truck Sales | |

| |Class 1-3: 8,430,043 | |

| |Class 4: 86,904 | |

| |Class 5: 49,466 | |

| |Class 6: 70,029 | |

| |Class 7: 284,008 | |

| |(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007) | |

|Tier 3/LEV III |LEV compliant states projected to be about 33% of total U.S. sales in |States currently committed to ARB standards: Oregon, Washington, New |

| |2011 |York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, |

| | |Maine, Pennsylvania, Maryland |

|Japan Vehicle Sales |2006 Passenger Car & Light Truck Dom. 5,342,651 | |

| |Imports: 262,046 | |

| |Med. & Heavy Truck 109,212 | |

| |(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007) | |

|European Vehicle Sales |2006 Light Vehicle Sales Dom. 13,432,588 | |

| |Imports: 1,932,409 | |

| |(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007) | |

|Greenhouse Gas |ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually | |

|Highway Motorcycles |Total sales of highway motorcycles in 2000 were estimated to be |Honda, Harley Davidson, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and BMW account for |

| |438,000. (Source: U.S. EPA NPRM, 8/02) |nearly 95 percent of all motorcycles sold. Dozens of other minor players|

| | |make up the remaining few percent. Based on available information, over |

| |U.S. sales of all new motorcycle reached 1,050,000 units in 2004 |half of all motorcycles sold in 1998 were made by Honda and Harley |

| |(Motorcycle Industry Council) |Davidson, with the two companies maintaining almost equal market shares |

| | |of about 25 percent each |

| |In 1998, there were about 5.4 million highway motorcycles in use in the| |

| |U.S. (565,000 of which are dual-sport). Total sales of highway |2003 market share info: Honda-27.4%; Harley-23.7%; Yamaha-17.4%; |

| |motorcycles in 1998 were estimated to be 411,000, or about 72 percent |Suzuki-10.8%; Kawasaki-8.7% |

| |of motorcycle sales. About 13,000 of these were dual-sport | |

| |motorcycles. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council) | |

| | | |

|Light-duty Aftermarket Converters |New aftermarket converters manufactured for sale in North America | |

| |(2006): approximately 2.9 million (Source: MECA) | |

| | | |

| | | |

|Upgrade Light-duty Catalytic Converters |6-8 million 1984-1994 MY LDVs in CA | |

| |(Source: conversations with Paul Hughes of ARB) | |

| | | |

| |

|On-Road HDEs |

|Phase II |Based on data from engine manufacturers, it was estimated that engine |Market Share for Class 8 diesel engines (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| |sales in 1995 were: | |

| |-Light heavy-duty engines: 280,000 |2004 2003 2002 |

| |-Medium heavy-duty engines: 140,000 |Caterpillar 30.2% 33.8% 34.0% |

| |-Heavy heavy-duty engines: 220,000 |Cummins 25.4% 20.5% 23.5% |

| |Numbers are projected to grow at an annual rate of two percent without |DDC 18.3% 16.6% 21.8% |

| |compounding through 2035. Therefore, estimated 2003 sales would be: |Mack 9.6% 10.4% 12.3% |

| |-LHD: 328,066 |Mercedes 8.3% 10.3% 1.6% |

| |-MHD: 164,031 |Navistar 3.4% 4.3% 4.0% |

| |-HHD: 257,765 |Volvo 4.8% 4.1% 2.8% |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document) | |

| | | |

| |In April 2005 a report released by R. L. Polk & Co. analyzed new |Market Share for Class 8 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| |vehicle registration data from 2000 through 2004. Light heavy-duty | |

| |diesel vehicle (diesel pick-ups) registrations increased from 278,136 |2005 2004 |

| |in 2000 to 433,787 in 2004 (56% increase) |DC 36% 36% |

| | |PACCAR 23% 26% |

| |In December 2005 Merrill Lynch reported Class 8 diesel truck sales for |Navistar 19% 19% |

| |12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 299,448 units compared to 227,877 |Volvo 19% 19% |

| |units for the same 12 month period ending Nov. 30, 2004. Class 5-7 |Others 3% 1% |

| |truck sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 231,946 units | |

| |compared to 226,706 units for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2004. |Market Share for Class 5-7 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch): |

| | | |

| | |2004 |

| | |Navistar 27% 26% |

| | |DC 20% 20% |

| | |Ford 20% 22% |

| | |GMC 15% 12% |

| | |PACCAR 4% 4% |

| | |Others 13% 16% |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| |

|Off-Road Engines |

|Nonroad CI Engines |EPA anticipates that approximately 800,000 new nonroad diesel engines |EPA estimates that there are approximately 2 million pieces of |

| |annually will be subject to the nonroad rulemaking (figure based on |construction equipment operating in the U.S. |

| |annual sales of nonroad diesel engines). (Source: U.S. EPA) | |

| | |U.S. and Canada 2006 Sales Forecast for new farm wheel tractors and self |

| |Projected breakdown of the number of engines to be affected annually by|propelled combines: |

| |EPA’s nonroad rule: |Equipment |

| |Rated Power |U.S. |

| |Percentage Breakdown |Canada |

| |of 2000 Population | |

| |Number of Engines |2-wheel drive tractors |

| | |205,834 |

| |750 hp | |

| |0.3% | |

| |2,400 | |

| | | |

| |(Source: Percentage breakdown of 2000 population by U.S. EPA; | |

| |Projection of number of engines by MECA) | |

| | | |

|Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp |-Total large SI engine sales are about 150,000 per year in the U.S. |Sales are distributed rather evenly among several companies, so typical |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA) |sales volumes for each company range generally from 10,000 to 25,000 |

| | |engines per year. |

| |-Population of large SI engines estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: | |

| |442,000 | |

| | | |

| |-ARB estimates current lift truck population in CA at approx. 40,000 | |

| |units (about 30,000 with SI engines, the rest are electric) | |

| | | |

|Recreational SI Engines |Off-Highway Motorcycles |EPA is aware of five major companies that dominate sales of off-highway |

| |-Total sales of off-highway motorcycles in 2001 was estimated to be |motorcycles. Four of these companies, Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and |

| |195,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |Yamaha, are long established, major corporations that manufacture a |

| |-Population of 2-stroke off-highway motorcycles estimated using EPA |number of products including highway and off-highway motorcycles. They |

| |NONROAD2005 model: 801,320 |have dominated the off-highway motorcycle market for over thirty years. |

| |-Population of 4-stroke off-highway motorcycles estimated using EPA |The fifth major company, KTM, is also long established but has had a |

| |NONROAD2005 model: 394,680 |major impact in domestic sales over the last 10 to 15 years. These five |

| |-In 1998, off-highway motorcycles comprised 28 percent of total |companies account for approximately 90 to 95 percent of all domestic |

| |motorcycle sales. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council) |sales for off-highway motorcycles. |

| | | |

| |Snowmobiles |Based on available industry information, four major snowmobile |

| |-Total sales of snowmobiles in 2001 were estimated to be 228,000. |manufacturers, Arctic Cat, Bombardier (also known as Ski-Doo), Polaris, |

| |(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |and Yamaha, account for approximately 99 percent of all domestic |

| |-Population of 2-stroke snowmobiles estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 |snowmobile sales |

| |model: 1,512,675 | |

| | |The ATV sector has the broadest assortment of major manufacturers. With |

| |ATVs |the exception of KTM, all of the companies noted above for off-highway |

| |-Total sales of ATVs in 2001 were estimated to be 880,000. (Source: |motorcycles and snowmobiles are significant ATV producers. These seven |

| |U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02) |companies represent over 95 percent of total domestic ATV sales. The |

| |-Population of 2-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: |remaining 5 percent come from importers who tend to import inexpensive, |

| |405,000 |youth-oriented ATVs from China and other Asian nations |

| |-Population of 4-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: | |

| |3,505,000 | |

|Nonroad SI Engines 225 cc non-handheld) approximately 4.5 |

| |industry shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels. Using EPA |million engines |

| |NONROAD2005 model, EPA estimates that there are approximately 5,870,500| |

| |2-stroke chain saws 50% share), Tecumseh, Honda, Kohler, Kawasaki, Fuji,|

| |4,749,500 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 |and Onan. Major equipment manufacturers for non-handheld equipment |

| |would increase 2 percent. During 2001, industry shipments of |include: EHP, MTD, Briggs & Stratton, Murray, Toro, Honda, Deere, and |

| |gasoline-powered edgers increased 16 percent to 77,350 units. It was |Ariens. |

| |estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. | |

| |Using EPA NONROAD2005 model, EPA estimates that there are approximately| |

| |15,400,000 2-stroke trimmers, edgers and brushcutters and approximately| |

| |256,941 4-stroke trimmers, edgers and brushcutters. | |

| |-Handheld Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered| |

| |hand held blowers increased 15 percent to 1,895,030 units. It was | |

| |estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent. | |

| |-Backpack Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered| |

| |backpack blowers increased 6 percent to 308,450 units. It was | |

| |estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. | |

| |-Cutoff Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered | |

| |cutoff saws decreased 2 percent to 119,720 units. It was estimated | |

| |that industry shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels. | |

| |-Hedge Trimmers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered | |

| |hedge trimmers increased 19 percent to 380,900 units. It was estimated| |

| |that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent. | |

| | | |

|Nonroad SI Engines 50 hp. |-SI engine population 25 hp (CA) |-Construction/Mining Equipment: | |

| |Tier 0: 35,468 | |

|More information on ARB’s California Public Fleet |Tier 1: 80,813 | |

|Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Equipment Inventory is |Tier 2: 45,302 | |

|available at: |-Industrial Equipment: | |

| |Tier 0: 4,292 | |

|ordiesel.htm |Tier 1: 5,115 | |

| |Tier 2: 1,724 | |

| |-Airport Ground Support Equipment: | |

| |Tier 0: 124 | |

| |Tier 1: 498 | |

| |Tier 2: 452 | |

| |Tier 3: 290 | |

| |Tier 4 interim: 208 | |

| | | |

| |ARB estimates that, as of 2005, there are approximately: | |

| |-Construction/Mining Equipment; 152,001 | |

| |-Industrial Equipment: 17,811 | |

| |-Oil Drilling: 578 | |

| |-Airport Ground Support Equipment: 1,521 | |

|Public and Private Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks (CA) |Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Population Distribution 2006: | |

| |-Medium-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck: | |

| |-Private Fleet: 186,715 | |

| |-Public Fleet: 19,637 | |

| |-Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck: | |

| |-Private Fleet: 126,870 | |

| |-Public Fleet: 21,011 | |

| |-Out-of-State: 50,538 | |

| |-Trash Truck: 12,732 | |

| | | |

| |2008 Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Inventory (excludes public fleets, urban | |

| |buses, or solid waste collection vehicles): | |

| |-CA Registered Class 4-7: 191,865 | |

| |-CA Registered Class 8: 127,213 | |

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