GED Study Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from ...

GED Study

Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union

GED Study

Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union

Table of contents

1. Introduction

7

2.Historical summary: From Winston Churchill's "United States of

Europe" in 1946 to Nigel Farage's UKIP today

10

3.The United Kingdom's economic relationships with the EU over time 13

3.1. Trade relations

16

3.2. Foreign direct investments

21

3.3. Migration

24

contribution and UK rebate: How much does the UK

actually pay?

27

5.Scenario calculations: What costs could a Brexit create for the UK?

Static effects

31

5.1. Scenarios

31

5.2.Estimating the effects on trade, sectoral net value added, openness and real

income

32

5.3.Static net effects: a cost-benefit analysis of the EU exit

34

6.What costs would Germany and the EU be facing? Static analysis 36

7. Dynamic effects

39

7.1.Dynamic effects of trade (de)integration for the UK and Germany

39

7.2.Effects through limiting the free movement of people

40

7.3.Estimating the maximum damage of a Brexit

42

7.4. Comparison with other studies

42

8. Closing comments and solution options

44

Bibliography

45

Imprint

46

5

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