GED Study Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from ...
GED Study
Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union
GED Study
Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union
Table of contents
1. Introduction
7
2.Historical summary: From Winston Churchill's "United States of
Europe" in 1946 to Nigel Farage's UKIP today
10
3.The United Kingdom's economic relationships with the EU over time 13
3.1. Trade relations
16
3.2. Foreign direct investments
21
3.3. Migration
24
contribution and UK rebate: How much does the UK
actually pay?
27
5.Scenario calculations: What costs could a Brexit create for the UK?
Static effects
31
5.1. Scenarios
31
5.2.Estimating the effects on trade, sectoral net value added, openness and real
income
32
5.3.Static net effects: a cost-benefit analysis of the EU exit
34
6.What costs would Germany and the EU be facing? Static analysis 36
7. Dynamic effects
39
7.1.Dynamic effects of trade (de)integration for the UK and Germany
39
7.2.Effects through limiting the free movement of people
40
7.3.Estimating the maximum damage of a Brexit
42
7.4. Comparison with other studies
42
8. Closing comments and solution options
44
Bibliography
45
Imprint
46
5
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