Automotive Aftermarket Stock Performance
Weekly Automotive Aftermarket Intelligence Report June 29, 2015
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
Automotive Aftermarket Stock Performance*
20% SLIPPING
S&P 500 Last Week's Return
(0.4%) 15%
Uni-Select
Group 1
10%
Lithia
Monro LKQ
Penske
Asbury
Last Month's Return
5%
S&P 500
Last Month's Return
0%
(0.1%)
(5%)
MPA Dorman Standard Motor
Tenneco Copart
Genuine Parts
AutoZone Rush
Solera
CarMax Cooper Tire
O'Reilly Sonic
KAR
Snap-on
AutoNation Advance Auto
Remy
Goodyear
Boyd Federal-Mogul
LEADING
(10%)
LAGGING (15%)
(10%)
(5%)
Pep Boys (not shown above) had one week and one month returns of 7.3% and 22.0%, respectively *Size of the bubble represents relative market capitalization Source: CapitalIQ
U.S. Auto Parts
IMPROVING
0%
5%
10%
Last Week's Return
Segment Index1
Suppliers Retailers & Distributors Independent Service Providers & Dealers Collision BB&T Automotive Aftermarket Index
S&P 500
1 Weighted by market capitalization
Percent Change
1 Week 1 Month LTM
0.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 2.4% (0.4%)
0.8% 1.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% (0.1%)
13.9% 32.3% 20.8% 8.3% 22.8% 7.8%
1
Automotive Aftermarket Stock Performance
40%
30% 20%
10%
0%
(10%)
(20%) Jul-14
Source: Capital IQ
Aug-14
Sep-14
Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth
(Year-Over-Year)
70% 60% 50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 0%
(10%)
(20%) (16.7%)
Source: Capital IQ
2.7% 3.1%
(10.0%)
9.4%
Suppliers
(0.8%)
5.7%
Oct-14
(2.2%) (3.4%)
Nov-14
Dec-14
Suppliers Independent Service Providers & Dealers BB&T Automotive Aftermarket Index
2.3%
6.5%
3.1%
8.3% 10.1%
Retailers & Distributors
0.6%
12.3%
Jan-15
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. Dorman Products, Inc. Federal-Mogul Corp.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
Remy International, Inc. Snap-on Inc.
Standard Motor Products Inc. Tenneco Inc.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. AutoZone, Inc.
Genuine Parts Company KAR Auction Services, Inc.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. Uni-Select Inc.
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. AutoNation Inc. CarMax Inc.
Group 1 Automotive Inc. Lithia Motors Inc.
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
Rush Enterprises, Inc. Sonic Automotive Inc. Boyd Group Income Fund
Copart, Inc. KAR Auction Services, Inc.
LKQ Corp. Solera Holdings Inc.
(0.3%)
Feb-15 Mar-15
13.7% 13.3% 7.1% 7.6%
Retailers & Distributors Collision S&P 500 Index
66.0%
Independent Service Providers & Dealers
Apr-15
24.5% 11.4% 7.8%
4.6% 0.6%
May-15
53.4%
Jun-15
8.3% 9.1% 7.1% (4.1%)
Collision
2
Enterprise Value / Last 12 Months' EBITDA Multiples1,2,3
SUPPLIERS
10.0x 9.4x
8.0x
8.9x
8.7x
8.9x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x One Year Ago
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
11.2x One Year Ago
12.5x
12.7x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
10.0x
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
13.4x One Year Ago
13.0x
13.6x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
11.7x
TOTAL AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
11.2x One Year Ago
11.7x
12.1x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
11.0x
COLLISION
16.0x 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
14.8x One Year Ago
12.8x
12.9x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
12.3x
1 Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Debt ? Cash; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization 2 Pep Boys is included in both Retailers & Distributors and Independent Service Providers & Dealers 3 KAR is included in both Retailers & Distributors and Collision Source: Capital IQ
3
Valuation Metrics
As of 6/28/2015
($ in millions, except per share)
Ticker
Stock Price
52 Week High / Low
SUPPLIERS
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
CTB
$35.13 $43.94 / $27.24
Dorman Products, Inc.
DORM
$48.98 $51.75 / $37.22
Federal-Mogul Corp.
FDML
$12.10 $21.12 / $11.51
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.
GT
$31.40 $32.74 / $18.87
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
MPAA
$31.24 $36.43 / $20.86
Remy International, Inc.
REMY
$22.86 $24.42 / $16.31
Snap-on, Inc.
SNA
$162.19 $162.26 / $111.28
Standard Motor Products, Inc.
SMP
$36.40 $45.80 / $32.62
Tenneco, Inc.
TEN
$60.17 $69.22 / $46.64
MEAN
MEDIAN
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
$164.28 $165.16 / $119.71
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO
$677.47 $705.00 / $491.93
Genuine Parts Company
GPC
$92.07 $109.00 / $82.15
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
$38.37 $39.52 / $25.91
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY
$232.41 $233.84 / $145.51
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
PBY
$12.51 $12.55 / $8.00
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.
PRTS
$2.28
$4.09 / $1.50
Uni-Select, Inc.1
UNS
$38.83 $39.15 / $20.23
MEAN
MEDIAN
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
ABG
$92.53 $93.40 / $60.63
AutoNation, Inc.
AN
$64.85 $67.50 / $46.16
CarMax, Inc.
KMX
$68.41 $75.40 / $43.27
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
GPI
$92.25 $93.23 / $65.49
Lithia Motors, Inc.
LAD
$114.51 $117.14 / $63.05
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.
MNRO
$64.59 $67.93 / $46.93
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG
$53.97 $54.14 / $36.36
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
PBY
$12.51 $12.55 / $8.00
Rush Enterprises, Inc.
RUSH.B $31.33 $31.64 / $19.58
Sonic Automotive, Inc.
SAH
$24.46 $27.87 / $21.76
MEAN
MEDIAN
COLLISION
Boyd Group Income Fund1
BYD.UN $42.79 $46.79 / $29.48
Copart, Inc.
CPRT
$35.72 $38.50 / $29.93
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
$38.37 $39.52 / $25.91
LKQ Corp.
LKQ
$30.79 $30.82 / $22.90
Solera Holdings, Inc.
SLH
$46.17 $69.60 / $45.69
MEAN
MEAN
MEDIAN
Market Cap
$2,022 1,744 2,045 8,469 562 737 9,459 837 3,692
$3,285 $2,022
$12,022 20,915 14,013 5,439 23,471
674 77 824 $9,679 $8,731
$2,521 7,395 14,276 2,153 3,016 2,056 4,870 674 1,333 1,244
$3,954 $2,337
$710 4,519 5,439 9,366 3,099 $4,627 $4,519
Price /
P / E
Forward PEG
TEV TBV LTM CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2015 CY 2016
$1,930 2.8x 11.1x 12.8x 11.7x 1,680 3.9x 20.5x 18.0x 15.6x 4,379 NM 21.1x 17.9x 11.6x 13,848 2.7x 14.7x 10.5x 8.8x
580 3.0x 42.9x 18.1x 14.6x 981 45.7x 23.9x 14.0x 11.9x 10,271 7.9x 23.9x 20.3x 18.0x 900 2.9x 15.5x 14.2x 12.5x 4,755 9.6x 15.9x 13.1x 11.2x $4,369 9.8X 21.0X 15.4X 12.9X $1,930 3.4X 20.5X 14.2X 11.9X
NA NA 1.0x 0.8x NA NA NA NA 0.8x 0.6x 1.0x 0.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.1x 1.0x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1X 1.0X 1.0X 0.9X
$13,668 28.4x 21.2x 19.9x 17.3x 1.5x 1.3x 25,130 NM 20.1x 18.8x 16.8x 1.4x 1.2x 14,751 7.6x 20.2x 19.3x 17.7x 2.1x 1.9x 7,861 NM 27.0x 22.3x 19.5x 1.7x 1.5x 24,394 16.9x 30.4x 26.7x 23.5x 1.6x 1.4x
967 1.3x NM NM NM NM NM 91 4.4x NM NM NM NM NM 1,295 3.9x 20.9x 16.7x 16.8x NM NM $11,020 10.4X 23.3X 20.6X 18.6X 1.6X 1.5X $10,764 6.0X 21.1X 19.6X 17.5X 1.6X 1.4X
$3,992 9.1x 19.4x 16.9x 15.3x 1.0x 0.9x 12,379 14.4x 17.3x 15.8x 14.1x 1.0x 0.9x 23,410 4.4x 24.4x 26.3x 22.4x 1.7x 1.4x 4,635 NM 13.8x 13.4x 12.2x 0.9x 0.8x 4,815 8.4x 20.5x 17.7x 16.0x 0.8x 0.7x 2,313 22.9x 33.9x 34.2x 29.8x 2.1x 1.8x 8,471 NM 17.2x 14.5x 13.2x 1.3x 1.2x
967 1.3x NM NM NM NM NM 2,464 3.6x 25.9x 16.1x 13.9x NA NA 3,132 11.1x 12.2x 12.8x 11.4x 1.2x 1.0x $6,658 9.4X 20.5X 18.6X 16.5X 1.3X 1.1X $4,314 8.8X 19.4X 16.1X 14.1X 1.1X 1.0X
$780 NM 31.9x 26.5x 20.2x NA NA 4,707 5.3x 21.0x 22.0x 19.8x 1.8x 1.6x 7,861 NM 27.0x 22.3x 19.5x 1.7x 1.5x 10,930 29.9x 24.7x 21.8x 18.6x 1.1x 0.9x 5,412 NM 38.2x 15.0x 13.8x 1.3x 1.2x $5,938 17.6X 28.6X 21.5X 18.4X 1.5X 1.3X $5,412 17.6X 27.0X 22.0X 19.5X 1.5X 1.3X
TEV / Revenue
TEV / EBITDA
LTM CY 2015 CY 2016 LTM CY 2015 CY 2016
0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 3.8x 4.8x 4.6x 2.2x 2.1x 1.9x 11.2x 10.1x 8.8x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 7.1x 7.2x 6.0x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 6.0x 5.6x 5.3x 1.9x 1.8x 1.5x NM 8.8x 7.2x 0.8x 0.9x 0.8x 7.1x 7.7x 6.7x 2.9x 3.0x 2.8x 13.2x 13.4x 12.2x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 7.5x 8.0x NA 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 6.5x 5.9x 5.3x 1.3X 1.3X 1.2X 7.8X 8.0X 7.0X 0.8X 0.9X 0.8X 7.1X 7.7X 6.3X
1.4x 1.4x 1.3x 10.8x 10.5x 9.7x 2.5x 2.5x 2.4x 11.5x 11.3x 10.6x 1.0x 0.9x 0.9x 11.5x 10.8x 10.2x 3.3x 3.1x 3.0x 13.1x 12.0x 11.1x 3.3x 3.1x 2.9x 15.8x 14.6x 13.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 12.3x 9.7x 8.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 20.3x 13.0x 9.5x 0.7x 1.0x 1.1x 13.7x 14.6x 15.0x 1.6X 1.6X 1.5X 13.6X 12.1X 10.9X 1.2X 1.2X 1.2X 12.7X 11.7X 10.4X
0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 13.0x 12.3x 11.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.6x 13.0x 12.2x 11.3x 1.6x 1.6x 1.5x 21.0x 21.6x 19.1x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 11.7x 12.3x 11.4x 0.8x 0.6x 0.6x 16.6x 13.8x 12.6x 2.6x 2.6x 2.4x 15.8x 16.2x 14.2x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 13.4x 13.2x 12.2x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 12.3x 9.7x 8.2x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 13.1x 14.0x 11.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 10.5x 11.0x 10.2x 0.9X 0.8X 0.8X 14.0X 13.6X 12.2X 0.6X 0.6X 0.6X 13.1X 12.8X 11.5X
1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 13.2x 11.0x 9.7x 4.1x 4.1x 4.0x 11.3x 11.9x 11.1x 3.3x 3.1x 3.0x 13.1x 12.0x 11.1x 1.6x 1.5x 1.4x 13.6x 12.8x 11.1x 4.9x 4.8x 4.5x 13.2x 11.8x 11.2x 3.0X 2.9X 2.7X 12.9X 11.9X 10.8X 3.3X 3.1X 3.0X 13.2X 11.9X 11.1X
1 Stock Prices, Market Cap, and Enterprise Values converted at the exchange rate as of the date above * Definitions: LTM = Last Twelve Months; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization; P / E = Stock Price / Earnings Per Share; TEV = Total Enterprise Value
TBV = Tangible Book Value; PEG = (Calendarized P / E) / Long Term Growth Rate Sources: Capital IQ, Company filings
4
Operating Results
Last 12 Months as of 6/28/2015
($ in millions, except per share)
Ticker LTM Date Revenue EBITDA
SUPPLIERS
Affinia Group Intermediate Holdings, Inc.1 N/A
03/31/15 $1,368 $165
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
CTB
03/31/15 3,292
502
Dorman Products, Inc.
DORM 03/28/15
756
150
Federal-Mogul Corp.
FDML 03/31/15 7,373
569
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.
GT
03/31/15 17,693 2,306
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
MPAA 03/31/15 302
36
Remy International, Inc.
REMY 03/31/15 1,180
139
Snap-on, Inc.
SNA
04/04/15 3,540
778
Standard Motor Products, Inc.
SMP
03/31/15
975
120
Tenneco, Inc.
TEN
03/31/15 8,349
736
UCI Holdings Limited1
N/A
03/31/15 1,004
102
MEAN
$4,166 $509
MEDIAN
$1,368 $165
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
04/25/15 $9,913 $1,262
American Tire Distributors Holdings, Inc.1 N/A
01/03/15 5,031
242
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO
05/09/15 9,947 2,183
Genuine Parts Company2
GPC
03/31/15 15,453 1,278
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
03/31/15 2,413
601
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY 03/31/15 7,390 1,539
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack3
PBY
05/02/15 2,088
79
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.
PRTS 04/04/15 292
4
Uni-Select, Inc.5
UNS
03/31/15 1,783
90
MEAN
$6,034 $809
MEDIAN
$5,031 $601
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
ABG
03/31/15 $6,054 $307
AutoNation, Inc.
AN
03/31/15 19,690
951
CarMax, Inc.
KMX 05/31/15 14,533 1,116
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
GPI
03/31/15 10,110
398
Lithia Motors, Inc.
LAD
03/31/15 6,101
294
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.
MNRO 03/28/15 894
147
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG
03/31/15 17,633
592
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack4
PBY
05/02/15 2,088
79
Rush Enterprises, Inc.
RUSH.B 03/31/15 4,962
278
Sonic Automotive, Inc.
SAH
03/31/15 9,296
300
MEAN
$9,136 $446
MEDIAN
$7,699 $303
COLLISION
Boyd Group Income Fund5
BYD.UN 03/31/15 $744
$58
Copart, Inc.6
CPRT 04/30/15 1,151
416
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
03/31/15 2,413
601
LKQ Corp.7
LKQ
03/31/15 6,888
808
Solera Holdings, Inc.
SLH
03/31/15 1,112
410
MEAN
$2,462 $458
MEDIAN
$1,151 $416
Net
Margins
EBIT Income Gross EBITDA EBIT
Sales Growth
EBITDA Growth SSS
NI 1 Year 5 Year 1 Year 5 Year Latest Q
$144
$88 24.2% 12.1% 10.5% 6.4% 0.1% (5.7%) 13.8% 1.4%
368
209 19.3% 15.2% 11.2% 6.3% (2.4%) 2.1% 6.9% 6.3%
137
88 38.1% 19.9% 18.2% 11.6% 9.1% 14.2% 3.2% 20.3%
232 (219) 14.0% 7.7% 3.1% (3.0%) 6.8% 5.7% (4.8%) 3.5%
1,587 2,727 24.0% 13.0% 9.0% 15.4% (7.6%) 0.8% 8.7% 11.7%
34
11 27.0% 12.0% 11.1% 3.8% 16.6% 15.4% 3.6% 8.8%
69
18 16.8% 11.7% 5.8% 1.5% 1.3% 4.2% 6.1% 0.3%
711
437 50.1% 22.0% 20.1% 12.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.7% 17.7%
103
40 29.3% 12.3% 10.6% 4.1% (1.1%) 5.6% (5.7%) 21.2%
545
229 16.9% 8.8% 6.5% 2.7% 2.4% 10.8% 1.9% 12.7%
47 (36) 13.1% 10.1% 4.7% (3.6%) 0.2% 2.3% (12.3%) 13.7%
$362 $327 24.8% 13.2% 10.1% 5.2% 3.0% 5.7% 3.4% 10.7%
NA
$144
$88 24.0% 12.1% 10.5% 4.1% 1.3% 5.6% 3.6% 11.7%
NA
$982 $494 45.3% 12.7% 9.9% 5.0% 33.1% 12.3% 27.3% 14.5% 0.7%
89 (95) 17.6% 4.8% 1.8% (1.9%) 31.1% 18.3% 29.4% 19.4%
1,914 1,133 52.2% 21.9% 19.2% 11.4% 4.5% 6.8% 4.9% 8.5% 2.3%
1,131
715 29.9% 8.3% 7.3% 4.6% 6.5% 8.6% 2.7% 10.4% 3.8%
401
203 44.2% 24.9% 16.6% 8.4% 9.7%
NA 29.3%
NA
1,334
817 51.7% 20.8% 18.0% 11.1% 8.8% 8.3% 15.7% 15.6% 7.2%
5
(17) 23.1% 3.8% 0.3% (0.8%) 0.9% 1.6% (29.9%) (10.1%) 0.6%
(4)
(7) 27.6% 1.5% (1.5%) (2.4%) 13.4% 8.6% (30.4%) (14.8%)
73
(41)
NM 5.1% 4.1% (2.3%) 0.2% 5.9% 6.7% 1.6% 1.1%
$658 $356 36.5% 11.5% 8.4% 3.7% 12.0% 8.8% 6.2% 5.6% 2.6%
$401 $203 37.1% 8.3% 7.3% 4.6% 8.8% 8.5% 6.7% 9.5% 1.7%
$280 $116 16.4% 5.1% 4.6% 1.9% 10.8% 11.8% 13.4% 19.9%
841
435 15.6% 4.8% 4.3% 2.2% 10.7% 12.1% 14.0% 14.1%
996
610 15.9% 7.7% 6.9% 4.2% 11.7% 12.9% 14.8% 12.2%
354
98 14.6% 3.9% 3.5% 1.0% 9.7% 16.6% 20.8% 19.5%
263
155 15.2% 4.8% 4.3% 2.5% 45.9% 27.2% 34.3% 34.6%
111
62 39.5% 16.4% 12.4% 6.9% 7.6% 9.6% 15.4% 12.4% 2.0%
519
294 15.0% 3.4% 2.9% 1.7% 16.7% 12.5% 15.8% 16.0%
5
(17) 23.1% 3.8% 0.3% (0.8%) 0.9% 1.6% (29.9%) (10.1%) 1.3%
153
85 15.8% 5.6% 3.1% 1.7% 38.4% 33.2% 40.2% 38.2%
238
92 14.8% 3.2% 2.6% 1.0% 4.5% 8.4% 0.6% 7.4%
$376 $193 18.6% 5.9% 4.5% 2.2% 15.7% 14.6% 13.9% 16.4% 1.7%
$271 $107 15.7% 4.8% 3.9% 1.8% 10.7% 12.3% 15.1% 15.0% 1.7%
$41 ($17) 45.9% 7.8% 5.5% (2.3%) 49.3% 34.3% 57.4% 37.9% 5.8%
368
213 43.7% 36.2% 32.0% 18.5% 1.0% 8.5% 19.6% 8.3% 5.6%
401
203 44.2% 24.9% 16.6% 8.4% 9.7%
NA 29.3%
NA
680
384 39.2% 11.7% 9.9% 5.6% 25.4% 26.3% 21.2% 21.8% 7.5%
257
55 66.4% 36.9% 23.1% 4.9% 18.5% 12.4% 13.4% 10.4%
$349 $168 47.9% 23.5% 17.4% 7.0% 20.8% 20.4% 28.2% 19.6% 6.3%
$368 $203 44.2% 24.9% 16.6% 5.6% 18.5% 19.3% 21.2% 16.1% 5.8%
1 Affinia Group, American Tire Distributors, and UCI International have publicly traded debt only and thus are included in operating and performance metrics, but not valuation multiples 2 Same Store Sales for Genuine Parts reflects automotive segment only 3 Same Store Sales reflect Pep Boys' merchandise business only 4 Same Store Sales reflect Pep Boys' service business only 5 Reported results converted at the exchange rate as of the above date 6 Same Store Sales reflect Copart's organic comp growth 7 Same Store Sales reflect LKQ's organic growth for parts and services * Definitions: LTM = Last Twelve Months; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization; EBIT = Earnings Before Interest & Taxes; NI = Net Income
SSS = Same Store Sales, where applicable Sources: Capital IQ, Company filings
5
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