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To cite report:

Le Roux, A., van Niekerk, W., Arnold, K., Pieterse, A., Ludick, C., Forsyth, G., Le Maitre, D., Lötter, D., du Plessis, P. & Mans, G. 2019. Green Book Risk Profile Tool. Pretoria: CSIR. Available at: riskprofiles.greenbook.co.za

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greenbook.co.za

Risk Profile Assessment

City of Mbombela

Local Municipality

City of Mbombela Local Municipality

Ehlanzeni District Municipality, Mpumalanga

Local municipalities are ranked according to their vulnerability relative to all 213 municipalities in the country. A higher ranking (out of 213), indicated the municipality is worse off.

An additional score (out of 10) is provided for vulnerability factors that includes a time component (1996 – 201). A lower score in 2011 compared to 1996 indicates the improvement of factors such as socio-economic or economic vulnerability.

VULNERABILITY Overview

1996 EV score: 4.6 /10 2011 EV score: 6.0 /10

Economic:

The economic vulnerability of the municipality to external shocks is based on the economic diversity, size of the economy, labour force, GDP growth rate and the income inequality present in the municipality.

124th out of 213 municipalitiest

The environmental vulnerability represents the conflict between preserving the natural environment and accommodating the growth pressures associated with population growth, urbanization and economic development. The indicator measures air quality, environmental governance, and the competition between the ecology and urban encroachment.

Environmental:

127th out of 213 municipalitiest

Physical:

The physical vulnerability addresses the physical fabric and connectedness of the settlements in the municipality. The more remote and/or structurally vulnerable, the higher the physical vulnerability score.

168th out of 213 municipalitiest

Socio-Economic:

1996 SEV score: 5.0 /10 2011 SEV score: 3.9 /10

This indicator shows the vulnerability of households living in the municipality with regards to the household’s age composition, education and health status, access to basic services, and safety and security.

74th out of 213 municipalities

VULNERABILITY Overview

Settlements with the worst Service Access:

1st:

2nd

3rd:

Growth Pressure:

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Regional Connectivity:

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Service Access:

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Settlements with the worst Regional Connectivity:

1st:

2nd

3rd:

Settlements with the worst Growth Pressure

1st:

2nd

3rd:

This set of 6 indicators shows the multi-dimensional vulnerabilities of the settlements within the selected municipality. These indicators allow the user to investigate the relative vulnerabilities of settlements within a specific local municipality.

A high vulnerability score indicates a scenario where an undesirable state of susceptibility is present e.g. low access to basic services, high socio- economic vulnerabilities, poor regional connectivity, etc.

The growth pressure indicator provides a temporal dimension (15-year historical trend), to show the settlements that have experienced growth pressures on top of the other dimensional vulnerabilities.

This set of 6 indicators shows the multi-dimensional vulnerabilities of the settlements within the selected municipality. These indicators allow the user to investigate the relative vulnerabilities of settlements within a specific local municipality.

A high vulnerability score indicates a scenario where an undesirable state of susceptibility is present e.g. low access to basic services, high socio- economic vulnerabilities, poor regional connectivity, etc.

The growth pressure indicator provides a temporal dimension (15-year historical trend), to show the settlements that have experienced growth pressures on top of the other dimensional vulnerabilities.

Economic:

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Socio-Economic:

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Environmental:

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Settlements with the worst Economic Pressure:

1st:

2nd

3rd:

Settlements with the worst Environmental Pressure

1st:

2nd

3rd:

Settlements with the worst Socio-Economic Pressure:

1st:

2nd

3rd:

POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTION

POPULATION GROWTH PRESSURE

The graph shows the projected population estimates for the municipality under a medium and high growth scenario, base-line (2011 according to national census data) and for a 2030 and 2050 future (projected). The scenarios and a full technical report can be accessed here.

This map depicts the growth pressures that the settlements within the selected municipality will likely experience. The map is accompanied by a table that provides, in addition to the expected growth pressure (under a medium population growth scenario), the projected population figures for each settlement, currently (2011), and for a 2030 and 2050 future.

POPULATION GROWTH PRESSURE

This map depicts the growth pressures that the settlements within the selected municipality will likely experience. The map is accompanied by a table that provides, in addition to the expected growth pressure (under a medium population growth scenario), the projected population figures for each settlement, currently (2011), and for a 2030 and 2050 future.

The average temperature (depicted in degrees Celsius) and average rainfall (depicted in millimetres) are shown in the two maps.

*A very hot day is a day when the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C

**An extreme rainfall event (including severe thunderstorms and lightning) is defined as 20 mm of rain occurring within 24 hours over the 8 x 8 km grid area.

RCP 4.5: -113.46 to -61.59mm

RCP 8.5: -44.93 to -30.04mm

Average Rainfall Change:

Average Temperature Change:

RCP 4.5: 1.95°C to 2.43°C

RCP 8.5: 2.41°C to 2.77°C

Extreme Rainfall Days Change:

RCP 4.5: -2.04 to -0.70 days

RCP 8.5: -1.64 to 0.78 days

RCP 4.5: 3.04 to 40.16 days

RCP 8.5: 4.00 to 46.56 days

Very Hot Days Change:

CURRENT

This series of maps depicts 4 climate change metrics for projected change in: 1) temperature; 2) rainfall; 3) extreme rainfall events; and, 4) very hot days. The 10th to 90th percentile results from the 6 models are also added to convey the spectrum of possible anticipated changes. For each metric, the projected change for the period 2021–2050, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990) is indicated.

2050

CLIMATE

FIRE

Climate change will have a significant impact on the magnitude, frequency and the extent of hydro-meteorological hazards. This section covers information relating to the anticipated impacts of changing hazards on South African settlements.

2050

CURRENT

HAZARDS

This section showcases information with regards to the selected municipalities’ current hydro-meteorological hazards.

The map depicts the likelihood of wildfires occurring in the wildland-urban interface (the boundary or interface between developed land and fire-prone vegetation) of the settlement.

The map on the left depicts the projected number of fire danger days for an 8 x 8 km grid-point under an RCP 8.5 low mitigation (worst case) scenario. A fire danger day is described as a day when the McArthur fire-danger index exceeds a value of 24. The map on the right depicts the settlements that are at risk of increases in wildfires by the year 2050.

The map depicts the flood hazard index of the different quinary catchments present or intersecting with the municipality. The flood hazard index is based on the catchment characteristics and design rainfall, averaged at the quinary catchment level.

FLOODING

The map on the left depicts the projected change for the year 2050 in extreme rainfall days for an 8 x 8 km grid. This was calculated by assessing the degree of change when future rainfall extremes (e.g. 95th percentile of daily rainfall) are compared with those under the current rainfall. A value of more than 1 indicates an increase in extreme daily rainfalls. The map on the right depicts the settlements that are at increased risk of urban flooding under an RCP 8.5 low mitigation (worst case) scenario.

HAZARDS

2050

CURRENT

CURRENT

2050

HAZARDS

A negative value is indicative of an increase in drought tendencies per 10 years (more frequent than the observed baseline).

DROUGHT STRESS

The map on the left depicts the projected change in drought tendencies (i.e. the number of cases exceeding near-normal per decade) for the period 2035–2064 relative to the 1986–2005 baseline period, under the low mitigation scenario (RCP 8.5). A negative value is indicative of an increase in drought tendencies per 10 years (more frequent than baseline). The map on the right depicts the settlements that are at risk of increases in drought tendencies.

The map depicts the projected change in drought tendencies (i.e. the number of cases exceeding near-normal per decade) for the period 1995–2024, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline period, under a low mitigation scenario (RCP 8.5).

2050

CURRENT

HAZARDS

HEAT STRESS

The very hot days map on the left depicts the number of days (per 8 x 8 km grid point) where the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C. The annual heatwave days map on the right depicts the number of days (per 8x8 km grid point) where the maximum temperature exceeds the average maximum temperature of the warmest month of the year at that location by 5°C, for a period of at least three consecutive days.

With the changing climate, it is expected that the impacts of heat will only increase in the future. The heat-absorbing qualities of built-up urban areas make them, and the people living inside them, especially vulnerable to increasingly high temperatures. The combination of the increasing number of very hot days and heatwave days over certain parts of South Africa is likely to significantly increase the risk of heat stress in a number of settlements.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

2050

CURRENT

To understand the impact that climate change might have on the major resources of your municipality it is first necessary to provide an overview of these.

The graph depicts the current water supply vulnerability (i.e. demand versus supply) for this local municipality based on the data compiled for the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) All Town’s Study (Cole, 2017).

This section explores the impact that climate change is likely to have on the resources and economic sectors of the selected municipality. The results have been quantified through modelling exercises for some sectors. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on settlements have been written up in qualitative documents for the other sectors.

RESOURCES

These graphs shows the estimated current and future water supply vulnerability (i.e. the ratio of demand to supply) based on: 1) a local water supply perspective incorporating changes to population growth coupled with exposure to climate risk (E1 – based on impacts of local runoff), and 2) a regional water supply perspective (E2 – based on impacts of regional water supply assuming supply is part of the integrated regional and national bulk water supply network).

IMPACT ON RESOURCES

WATER SUPPLY

MEDIUM GROWTH

CURRENT

2050

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The map shows only the catchments that relate to this local municipality, with their associated current and future evaporation, precipitation, and estimated runoff values.

The graphs depict the current annual and monthly surface water runoff, precipitation and evaporation for the quaternary catchments associated with this local municipality.

SURFACE WATER

CURRENT

2050

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

GROUNDWATER

A groundwater depletion risk map was created to determine which of South Africa's groundwater dependent settlements may be most at risk to groundwater depletion based on decreasing groundwater aquifer recharge potential and significant increases in population growth pressure by 2050.The groundwater depletion risk map is based on the settlement aquifer recharge potential of the 50th percentile RCP 8.5 scenario, and the medium population growth scenario.

The groundwater recharge potential map indicates the occurrence and distribution of groundwater resources across the country, showing distinctive recharge potential zones. The groundwater dependency map indicates where settlements get their main water supply from, be it groundwater, surface water or a combination of both sources. Settlements that rely on groundwater, either entirely or partially, are deemed groundwater dependent.

The table shows the forecasted economic gains or losses, under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, for each of the contributing economic sectors.

The graph shows the contribution that the different economic sectors make to the total GVA of the municipality as well as its national GVA rank (total GVA contribution to the national GVA).

ECONOMY

The table shows the top 3 main agricultural commodities. The table also provides the contribution that the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery sector makes to both the municipal as well as national GVA production along with the percentage employment generated from this sector.

The table shows the main agricultural commodities for the municipality and what the impact of climate change might be on those commodities under an RCP 8.5 low-mitigation scenario.

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHERY

Based on the risk profile for the selected municipality and its settlements, the Adaptation Actions Tool provides a range of planning and design actions that can be taken by local government to adapt to the impacts of climate change, reduce exposure to hazards, and exploit opportunities for sustainable development.

ADAPTATION ACTIONS

OTHER AREAS CLIMATE CHANGE WILL LIKELY IMPACT IN THE FUTURE:

The detailed reports for each climate change impact area can be found on the Green Book website

SANITATION

TRANSPORT

& MOBILITY

HEALTH

GENDER

& EQUALITY

CULTURE

& HERITAGE

ENERGY

ICT

STORMWATER

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