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Travel Industry 2021 PLUSTravel UnravelsOther than restaurants/bars/nightclubs and movie theaters, the pandemic hit the travel industry the hardest. The U.S. Travel Association is forecasting a total of $617 billion for 2020 travel spending, a 45.2% YOY decrease, compared to $1.13 trillion during 2019.US residents will account for the greatest majority of that spending, or $582 billion, compared to $36 billion for international visitors. Leisure travel will represent the bulk of US residents’ spending, or $450 billion, compared to $131 billion for business travel. A September 2020 IPSOS survey found 40% of Americans feel safer taking a driving vacation. Of the 922.9 million daily trips Americans took as of November 21st (30.6% fewer than February 28th), only 28.4 millions of those November trips were 50–250 miles.Foreign Travel by US Residents SAARs*, 2020Time PeriodSAAR*YOY % ChangeTime PeriodSAAR*YOY % ChangeQ1 2020$141.32 B-20.8%July 2020$15.49 B-91.4%Q2 2020$11.46 B-93.8%August 2020$15.99 B-91.1%1H 2020$76.39 B-57.9%September 2020$15.01 B-91.6%Q3 2020$15.53 B-91.4%US Bureau of Economic Analysis, November 2020*seasonally-adjusted annual rate, not monthly salesCOVID-19 Travel InsightsAccording to MMGY Travel Intelligence’s November 2020 Travel Intentions Pulse Report, 62% of respondents to the October survey said they were canceling instead of postponing vacations they had planned prior to the pandemic. More than 50% had canceled instead of postponing 4 of 5 transportation and lodging plans: domestic flight 56%, international flight 57%, rental car reservation 54%, hotel/resort reservation 54% and vacation rental home 42%.Travel is certainly top-of-mind for many Americans as a September 2020 American Society of Travel Advisors (ASTA) survey found 46% of respondents said they would spend a large portion of their discretionary funds to travel if the pandemic ended quickly.Airbnb and VRBO Worldwide Bookings* Trends, January–September 2020MonthYOY % ChangeMonthYOY % ChangeJanuary 2020+31%June-25%February 2020+33%July-21%March 2020+5%August-26%April 2020-29%September-29%May 2020-25%Statista, November 2020 *properties with at least one-booked day during a given monthDomestic TravelThe U.S. Travel Association is also forecasting a 31% YOY decrease of total 2020 US domestic person-trips to 1.6 billion, compared to 2.32 billion for 2019. (A one person’s trip is at least 50 miles from home with one paid night’s accommodation.)The MMGY Travel Intelligence survey found 40% of respondents who had taken a leisure trip during the past 12 months said they were unlikely to take a domestic leisure trip during the next 6 months (as of October 28th), compared to 46% (as of September 29th).Of survey participants, 64% said they would travel by personal car during the next 6 months (as of October 28th), the lowest percentage since April 24th; 32% said they would take a domestic flight; 19% by train/rail; and 16% by 5 Concerns About COVID-19 Impacting Travel Decisions, September vs. October 2020ConcernSept. 30thOct. 28thAvailability of a vaccine proven to be clinically effective to prevent you from becoming infected56%53%Reduction of spread of COVID-19 in the US50%49%Reduction of spread of COVID-19 globally48%47%Availability of therapeutics/drugs proven to be clinically effective to treat if you became infected48%42%CDC reduces risk-advisory level40%41%MMGY Travel Intelligence, November 2020International TravelTotal international visitors to the US are forecast to decrease by 76% during 2020, or 19.0 million visitors, compared to 79.3 million during 2019, with the largest deficient among overseas visitors, or -82.8% YOY, and -76.8% from Canada and -60.8% from Mexico.International visitors are projected to spend only $36.0 billion in the US during 2020, a 76.8% YOY decrease from 2019’s total spending of $155 billion. Such a loss has had major impacts on hotels, rental vehicles, restaurants and the people who staff these businesses.Of the respondents to the MMGY Travel Intelligence survey, just 21% (as of October 28th) said they would take an international flight and 20% an ocean cruise (the highest percentage since March).Weekly Flight Frequency of Total Global Airlines, January 6th–November 23rd, 2020DateYOY % ChangeDateYOY % ChangeJanuary 6th+1.5%July 20th -51.1%February 17th-10.7%August 30th -47.0%March 30th-47.7%September 28th -46.8%April 27th-67.2%October 26th -45.8%May 25th-68.6%November 23rd -45.8%June 22nd -56.0%Statista, December 2020 Business TravelAccording to the series of MMGY’s 2020 Travel Intelligence surveys, respondents have been quite consistent as to whether they were likely to take a domestic business trip during the next six months: July 33%, August 35%, September 33% and October 34%.Even fewer survey respondents said they were likely to attend an offsite business meeting (22%) or attend a conference or convention (22%) during the next six months.An October 22nd poll from the Global Business Travel Association revealed 31% of corporate travel suppliers said their bookings had increased during the past week, but 26% said they had decreased and 44% said they remained the panies’ Plans to Resume Business Travel, October 2020PlansDomesticTo USTo EuropeAll InternationalTo ChinaNot during immediate future15%22%24%30%33%Considered, but no definite plans44%43%41%41%37%Plan to resume 1–3 months25%20%13%7%7%Not sure15%16%22%22%23%Global Business Travel Association, November 2020Travel Consumers’ Future PlansWith good news about widespread availability of COVID-19 vaccines during the first half of 2021, the most recent (October and November) YouGuv survey data revealed 51% of respondents expect to travel during 2021.A November 2020 YouGuv survey of affluent consumers in 23 countries found a majority (59%) of respondents were still concerned about the pandemic; however, 29% said they would take a domestic holiday during 2021, 40% fly and 48% take a vacation abroad.Research from Virtuoso indicates, unsurprisingly, retirees will be the age group delaying travel plans the most and they are expected to prefer multi-family travel, gathering family members they haven’t seen by renting villas and private homes.Types of Trips Americans Plan to Take During the Next 12 Month, October/November 2020PlanUS Adults18–2930–4445–6465+Domestic holiday43%41%49%45%36%International holiday14%18%19%13%8%Domestic business trip8%7%14%8%2%International business trip3%3%6%2%1%Other2%5%2%1%3%Don’t know16%19%14%16%15%No plans33%24%27%32%43%YouGuv, November 2020Targeting Latinx American TravelersResearch from MMGY Travel Intelligence indicates Latinx Americans are responsible for 13% of all US leisure travel spending, or $114 billion of the total of $878 billion.When targeting the Latinx American population it’s important to remember the average age is the youngest of all the major ethnic groups in the US, so the average traveler is 45, compared to 50 for the entire population.Of equal importance is Latinx Americans are more likely to travel as a family, and often multi-generational. A majority of their trips (51%) are typically centered on family and life events as well as more interest in culture, nature and attractions.Travel Data for US Latinx Americans 18+, by Income, 2020IncomeDomestic Air Travel (3+ Times past year)Foreign Air Travel (1+ Times past year)Plan Ocean Cruise(Next 12 months) PercentIndexPercentIndexPercentIndex$15,000–$24,9999.9%9010.7%9810.6%97$25,000–$34,99910.6%8510.7%869.8%79$35,000–$49,99910.6%7511.8%8410.7%76$50,000–$74,99913.7%7815.5%8815.1%86$75,000–$99,99914.9%11813.7%10716.3%128$100,000+31.6%16028.0%14129.4%149Based on The Media Audit’s 60-Market 2020 Aggregate Survey (representing more than 28 million Latinx American adultsTravel Marketing on HoldeMarketer has estimated travel industry total digital ad spending will decrease a rather astounding 41.0% during 2020 to just $3.24 billion, compared to $5.5 billion during 2019 when it increased 17.1%. Spending will rebound 15.3% for 2021, but only to $3.74 billion.Hundreds of hotel and airline companies had to reduce their ad budgets significantly, including paid media, agency, marketing technology and in-house marketing.An important trend has emerged, as companies in the travel and hospitality industries have discovered it is beneficial to remain engaged with their customer base and target audiences even though many of them are not traveling.Travel Advisors’ Perspectives About the Likelihood of Promotional Offers to Increase Booking Decisions, June–August 2020LikelihoodJuneJulyAugustDefinitely would impact decisions20%12%18%Probably would impact decisions29%27%26%Not sure20%17%16%Probably would not impact decisions26%37%33%Definitely would not impact decisions5%8%8%MMGY Travel Intelligence, October 2020Travel Advisors’ Businesses Suffer SignificantlyAccording to MMGY Travel Intelligence’s September 2020 Travel Advisors Sentiment Barometer, 73% reported during August they expected their business would decrease by 75% or more due to the pandemic, compared to 59% during June.Based on other research in this Profiler PLUS, it’s unsurprising travel advisors report 40% of their inquiries are for US travel destinations, compared to 15% prior the pandemic, a 167% increase, while inquiries about global destinations decreased 38%, and cruises 29%.Of the surveyed travel advisors, most interest during August was for North American beach destinations (53%) and North American mountain destinations (50%). Interestingly, international river cruises were third at 40%, compared to 24% for large ship ocean cruises.Inquiries of Travel Advisors for Interest* in Travel by Party Composition, June–August 2020Party CompositionJuneJulyAugustCouples vacations66%66%70%Nuclear family vacations45%40%48%Multi-generational family vacations45%43%46%Group travel vacations28%28%30%Solo travel22%22%23%MMGY Travel Intelligence, October 2020Independent Travel Agent ProfileThe independent travel agent profile hasn’t changed much, as Host Agency Reviews annual survey/report found 77% of the respondents were women, with a median age of 57, 84% of their business is conducted from their homes and 76% work full time.Those who are full-time agents earned an average of $59,976; and this is one profession in which all full-time and part-time female agents earn more than men (but only slightly more), or $49,417 and $49,013, respectively.The largest revenue stream for independent travel agents is commissions ($44,602 average); followed by other income (bonuses, coaching, etc.) ($7,433 average); service fees ($6,807 average); and consultation ($4,285 average).Percentages of Products Sold and Income Generated from Those Products by Independent Travel Agents, 2019Products SoldPercentAnnual Income Earned by ProductAverage AmountAll-inclusive resorts32%“Free” independent travelers* (FIT)$80,733Ocean cruises23%Tours and packages$49,025“Free” independent travelers* (FIT)16%All-inclusive resorts$45,237Tours and packages15%Ocean cruises$35,341Other (airlines, hotels, safaris, etc.)14%Host Agency Reviews, December 2020 *travelers who typically self-plan and solo travel or in small groupsJourney into the WildMany Americans have chosen to participate in outdoor activities as they deem them safer. Visiting a local, state or national park during the next 6 months was cited as the top outdoor activity of 44% of respondents to the MMGY Travel Intelligence survey.The U.S. Travel Association monitored daily unique mobile devices to reveal US national park visits trends. Of the 21 parks in the study, October 9th recorded the most unique devices, or 5,035, which decreased to 2,783 for November 28th.Of the devices monitored, 28.38% were residents local to the parks and 71.92% were tourists. The majority (56.65%) drove 201 miles or more to one of the parks and 22.51% drove less than 25 miles.Daily Unique Mobile Devices at Selected US National Parks, by Local Residents and Tourists, November 28th, 2020National ParkLocal ResidentsTouristsNational ParkLocal ResidentsTouristsArlington National Cemetery44.68%56.19%Rocky Mountain National Park31.54%69.07%Glacial National Park39.09%62.35%Statue of Liberty34.96%66.16%Grand Teton National Park16.63%84.36%Olympic National Park26.27%75.42%Grand Canyon Village2.59%97.55%Yellowstone National Park45.45%72.73%Mount Rushmore Memorial10.83%89.58%Yosemite Valley Visitor Center6.7%93.63%Tableau (U.S. Travel Association/Rove Marketing/UberMedia), December 2020 A Brightening HorizonAccording to the U.S. Travel Association, total travel spending in the US will start to rebound during 2021, to a total of $760 billion, or a 23.2% increase, which would recapture approximately half of the 45.2% decrease during 2020.US residents’ total spending during 2021 ($698 billion/+20.0%) will regain approximately half of 2020’s decrease of -40.2%; however, spending in the business sector will only rebound 35.3%, but the leisure sector by 60%. International visitations to the US are forecast to increase 75.0% for 2021, regaining almost all of the 2020 decrease of 77.0%. CommonPass, a new digital health passport, which has already been tested, may be a major tool to deliver more visitors to the US during 2021.US Travel Forecast, by Domestic Person Trips Sectors, 2019–2024Domestic Person-Trips Sectors201920202021202220232024Total US+1.8%-31.0%+19.0%+19.3%+4.6%+3.4% Business+1.1%-60.2%+23.8%+72.7%+9.6%+5.6% Leisure+1.9%-23.7%+18.4%+12.0%+3.5%+2.9% Auto+1.5%-25.9%+19.4%+16.6%+3.3%+2.0% Air+4.3%-62.3%+15.7%+63.1%+25.4%+17.2%U.S. Travel Association, Fall 2020More Valuable InsightsIt’s clear by the data and insights in this Profiler PLUS domestic US and international travel will return, but like most all other business/consumer sectors, the pandemic will cause changes to future travel once it is defeated.According to extensive 2020 surveying from of more than 20,000 travelers in 28 countries and territories, a majority (53%) said a COVID-19 vaccine must first be widely available and in use before they feel safe about traveling. That being said, these thousands of travelers shared their future travel plans with . Worldwide Travelers’ Future Plans, 2020PlansPercentExcited to travel again65%More appreciative of travel61%Wanting to see even more of the world53%Travel more during the future because of delayed travel during 202042%Travel to celebrate a missed event during the pandemic38%Rebook a canceled trip40%More price-conscious62%Search for more promotions and savings55%Travel domestically during next 7–12 months47%Travel domestically after more than year38%Local travel to new destination in region/country43%Travel to a previous destination50%Travel to the other side of the world by end of 202121%Searching for future travel destinations as often as once a week38%Expect tourist attractions to adapt for social distancing70%, October 2020Sources: U.S. Travel Association Website, 12/20; US Bureau of Economic Analysis Website, 12/20; MMGY Travel Intelligence Website, 12/20; Travel Agent Central Website, 12/20; The Points Guy Website, 12/20; Statista Website, 12/20; Global Business Travel Association Website, 12/20; YouGuv Website, 12/20; Travel Pulse Website, 12/20; The Media Audit Website, 12/20; eMarketer Website, 12/20; ANA Website, 12/20; Host Agency Reviews Website, 12/20; Tableau Website, 12/20; Website, 12/20.Updated: December 2020? 2020 Media Group Online, Inc. 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