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In my part I will get you into some insights of Russian thinking of the region. Some of them will be theoretical and geopolitical. Some of them practical and visionary. But I hope it will be good contribution to what has been said by colleagues from Austria, Croatia and Italy. Let me start with a fact. Lots of policy papers emerged last 5 years with a topic on Russian influence on the Balkans. Russia is still a trendy topic in media. I hope that was not a…futile exercise for those who wrote those things doing their job because some things are too exaggerated. And they don’t show the real things well. When it comes to real things about Russian role in the region you may find out that we are a way behind comparing to other big powers that have presence in the region. Just one figure – the foreign trade of China with the countries of the region like Serbia is on the same level than Russia-Serbia foreign trade. While 5 years ago Chinese foreign trade – it was nothing. So China is advancing. Not forgetting the major role of the EU in the foreign trade (Mogherini was right whan she was saying that EU holds 80% of foreign trade). As a consequence, some guys that know the ways around like the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo confess that China`s presence may pose a bigger challenge than Russia. And agitating Montenegro and North Macedonia not to join Chinese modernization projects. The question what modernization project should they join – in the contest of recent EU vetoes – remains to stay open. The same we can say about Turkey since the latest developments in the US Turkey relations showed that there are some disagreements. And Russia` share in this picture is getting smaller. In a large extent when it comes to the Balkans we are becoming an outside power – we have to confess that. Of course if Russia becomes totally excluded that would be a worse case scenario for the countries of the region, because since the EU is still facing some challenges when it comes to eurointegration there is still a space for an influence of outside great powers. And if Russia loses its place it will be taken by other non EU great powers – Western and Eastern. The throne is never vacant, nature abhors the vacuum. So, what the strategy of Russia should be in these strategic circumstances? If some of you remember my previous statements – here at this format – you might remember that I said that Russia does not have a long strategy we are just reacting to the moves made by Brussels or Washington. Now I can tell you why. 15–20 years ago it was unclear in what direction the region will go. For obvious reasons – postconflict resolution, formation of the new states. The main questions that interested Russia – will the stabilization process be successful, will the EU integration project be successful. Will nationalism be a main trend – especially in the lands which some hardline experts call the Greater Albania. And the major reason why Russian politics looked unclear and suspicious for people in the west (professionals, who do Russian studies) is because it looked unclear for Russian experts and policy makers itself. It was difficult for them to find a clear answer. And we still have different opinions in our academic discussions. But maybe now we are on the edge of making a new strategy. Some thoughts were presented in a big project for RIAC that we did a year ago. If the region will be stable, the connectivity with a high proportion, will be the main trend that will determine political development in the whole Balkans region. That will be interesting process. Because for the first time in 100 years it will include new states – like Greece that geographically belongs to the region, but politically was out of it during the Cold War. It is Italy of Course. It is Turkey – very strong neigbour. And some countries from Central Europe. The common threats such as migration crisis show that internal borders between the EU and non EU countries, European or Balkan countries do not matter anymore. When you face the challenge – Slovenia – which doesn`t like the definition “the Balkan country” is in the same boat with Serbia which cannot run away from the Balkans. And from Croatia which as far as I see, doesn`t like word Balkan as well. But definitely has a Balkan neighbourhood. New strategy requires a new name/definition/ of the region we are talking about – that will provide us better integral picture of the region. So me and some of my colleagues use definition “The Four Seas Region” which means of group of 10-11 countries (Slovenia Serbia Croatia BiH Montenegro Macedonia Albania Greece Bulgaria Romania) that face similar trends in politics and economy, geographically, culturally or by its neighborhood belong to the Balkan Peninsula and lie on the crossroads of the main transit routes between Western Europe and Eastern Mediterranean. We thing that this definition might better explain current trends. It is better than others. Southeast Europe is too general, because it`s hard to find differences between Eastern Europe and South Europe. Is Romania Eastern Europe or Southeastern? Are Croatia or Slovenia Eastern Europe? And it is better than “The Balkans” because using world Balkans in political context is intolerant and impolite. And we in Russia, are tolerable (not tolerant but tolerable) to national feelings and specific view on things. Personally don`t like this refrain “Ovo je Balkan” because it gives pessimistic explanation why the things go wrong. So the 4 Seas Region gives more optimism. It more clearly explains why Balkans historically were a region of interest of the great powers. It shows connection to the Mediterranean Basin and the Black Sea which is important in the context of Russia-NATO relations. So I believe once it might be used by colleagues from Euroatlantic community. Because it creates no dividing lines in the Balkans and is much better than alternative definitions such as Chinese 16+1 and Turkish “Neo Ottoman Space”/ And it has more meaning and more soul. But the main advantage of it is that it helps to explain some imperatives of Russian foreign policy that is important to understand. Unlike the EU Russia, as well as other non-european big countries has privilege not to divide the Balkan Countries according to their status towards the EU. For Russia good political relations with Serbia which is not EU country are not of higher importance than good relations with Slovenia or Croatia which is a part of the EU. So for us there is no reason to use such definitions as the WB-6, because we don`t see this difference in status and dividing lines that exist in politics, but don`t exist when it comes to connectivity or industrial projects. So my point that for Russia right now is imperative to see an integral picture. So the 4 seas region is the definition that helps us to get an integral understanding of the major regional trends. And the first step – is to see the difference between ideological matters and pragmatic matters. So the main challenge for Russia since 2014 was redefinition and rethinking the region according to the major trends, to detect them – and to adapt its policy in according to these trends. In conclusion let me give some concrete thoughts of what next imperatives for Russia may be – according to the emerging trends in the 4 seas region. Since the beginning 2000s Russian main interest was economic presence. That time Russian investment was welcomed it the many countries in the region – not because it is Russian but because it is investment (I believe) Being an outside power in the context of big disagreements between Russia and the US and some EU Countries doing economic projects becomes more difficult in a countries with a non friendly political environment. So Russian positions have become more vulnerable. But frankly I don`t think that this is not a problem, because if doing big projects like RZD in Serbia or Turkish stream will be no possible – Russian civil society will welcome return this money at home. Because this investment is needed in eastern Russia. For me as a Russian citizen – I would prefer seeing this money in Vladivostok region where Russia is forming a big hub to trade with Southeast Asia neither somewhere abroad. But what I know also that the 4 Seas region is important for the Russian presence. Because since XVIII Russian strategic imperative was moving to the warm sea. And it still exists. Russian withdrawal will create vacuum that will be filled by others like Turkey and China. So for the elites in your countries face dilemmas what countries are more preferable for doing business. (Opportunity – challenge to find a nice partner)Another aspect – is politics and diplomacy. Questions of relations between Russia and the West Because when you see the headline in the New Yourk Times that “Balkans lie on the Frontline between Russia and the West” – you start believe in these things now matter how truth they are – here is how the information war goes on. So it forms a tunnel vision that gives you no chance to see better alternatives. But they exist. And one of them for small countries of the EU periphery – is to become a negotiations hub – a place where diplomats from Russia and the EU, NATO can meet and negotiate. This is what writing about my colleague Ekaterina Chimiris from RIAC – so I`m referring to her article. The link is above subscribe, like, and share. She analyzes the policy of countries of the Eastern Partnership. She sees their desireto get off the buffer zone/frontline between the West and Russia. So what they are trying to do – is to become a negotiation hub. Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan is an example. You even see a competition between them to hold a better place. But this is not a bad thing because the effect of this competition is growing quality of negotiations and specialization of the agenda. But the same times it brings benefits – Belarus with Minsk process got of the diplomatic isolation. Armenia – a landlocked country which 2 borders Turkey and Azerbaijan – are closed so no trade and any kind of relations – has 2 agreements both with EU and EAEU. And it help them to survive. I think the same trends might be applicable in the 4 Seas region. It this context I would like to praise the role of Atlantic Council of Croatia. Mr Radovan Vukadinovic who was – maybe the first in the region – who understood this necessity for dialogue. And Mrs Monica Begovic – because with their efforts suc a platform for dialogue has been established. And the session last month in Moscow reveals its potential. Thank you. ................
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