Intelligence Analysis

ATP 2-33.4

Intelligence Analysis

August 2014

DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their contractors only, because it requires protection as specified by Memorandum, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, DAMO-ODA-A, 30 August 2010, subject: Operations Security Guidance for Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) and Improvised Explosive Device Defeat (IEDD). This determination was made on 2 March 2013. Other requests for this document must be referred to ATTN: ATZS-CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence, Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via e-mail at usarmy.huachuca.icoe.mbx.doctrine@mail.mil. DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that will prevent disclosure of contents or reconstruction of the document.

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Army Techniques Publication No. 2-33.4

*ATP 2-33.4

Headquarters Department of the Army Washington, DC, 18 August 2014

Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3

Intelligence Analysis

Contents

Page

PREFACE...............................................................................................................v

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................vii

PART ONE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS AND SKILLS

FUNDAMENTALS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS......................................... 1-1 Overview............................................................................................................. 1-1 The Analytical Process ....................................................................................... 1-3 Single-Source Analysis....................................................................................... 1-3 All-Source Intelligence........................................................................................ 1-4 Collaboration ...................................................................................................... 1-4 Collaboration and the Intelligence Warfighting Function .................................... 1-5 Automation Support to Intelligence Analysis ...................................................... 1-5

ANALYTIC SKILLS............................................................................................ 2-1 Overview............................................................................................................. 2-1 Basic Thinking Abilities ....................................................................................... 2-1 Critical and Creative Thinking............................................................................. 2-2 Avoiding Analytical Pitfalls.................................................................................. 2-9

PART TWO FUNDAMENTAL TASK TECHNIQUES

BASIC STRUCTURED ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES........................................... 3-1 Overview............................................................................................................. 3-1 Sorting ................................................................................................................ 3-2 Matrices .............................................................................................................. 3-3 Threat Intentions Matrix...................................................................................... 3-5

DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies and their contractors only because it requires protection as specified by Memorandum, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, DAMO-ODA-A, 30 August 2010, subject: Operations Security Guidance for Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) and Improvised Explosive Device Defeat (IEDD). This determination was made on 2 March 2013. Other requests for this document must be referred to ATTN-ATZS-CDI-D, U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence, Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017, or via e-mail at usarmy.huachuca.icoe.mbx.doctrine@mail.mil.

DESTRUCTION NOTICE: Destroy by any method that will prevent disclosure of contents or reconstruction of the document.

*This publication supersedes TC 2-33.4, dated 1 July 2009.

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FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Contents

Chapter 4 Chapter 5

Event Mapping .................................................................................................... 3-6 Event Trees ......................................................................................................... 3-7 Subjective Probability..........................................................................................3-9 Weighted Ranking.............................................................................................3-11

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES.......................................................... 4-1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 4-1 Deception Detection............................................................................................4-1 Key Assumptions Check ..................................................................................... 4-2 Quality of Information Check...............................................................................4-4 Indicators............................................................................................................. 4-5 Conducting Studies ............................................................................................. 4-9

CORE ARMY ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES .......................................................... 5-1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 5-1 Analytic Techniques ............................................................................................ 5-1

Section I ? Developing Situational Understanding and Conclusions ......... 5-2 Brainstorming ...................................................................................................... 5-2 Comparison ......................................................................................................... 5-4 Mathematical Analysis ........................................................................................ 5-5 Situational Logic..................................................................................................5-8

Section II ? Analyzing Complex Networks and Associations ...................... 5-8 Link Analysis ....................................................................................................... 5-8 Network Analysis...............................................................................................5-14 Sociometrics or Social Network Analysis..........................................................5-24

Section III ? Conducting Pattern Analysis....................................................5-25 Chronologies ..................................................................................................... 5-26 Pattern Analysis Plot Sheet .............................................................................. 5-28 Incident Overlay ................................................................................................ 5-30 Pattern of Life Analysis ..................................................................................... 5-31

PART THREE CONSIDERATIONS FOR DECISIVE ACTION AND UNIQUE MISSIONS

Chapter 6

ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO DECISIVE ACTION................................................. 6-1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 6-1 Analytic Support to Unified Land Operations ...................................................... 6-1 Analytic Support to Unique Activities ................................................................ 6-10

Chapter 7

ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO UNIQUE MISSIONS................................................7-1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 7-1 Counterinsurgency .............................................................................................. 7-1 Counter-Improvised Explosive Device ................................................................ 7-2 Site Exploitation .................................................................................................. 7-4

Appendix A EMERGING ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES............................................................ A-1

Appendix B INDICATORS IN DECISIVE ACTION ............................................................... B-1

GLOSSARY .......................................................................................... Glossary-1

REFERENCES.................................................................................. References-1

INDEX ......................................................................................................... Index-1

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Contents

Figures

Figure 2-1. The elements of thought ...................................................................................... 2-3 Figure 3-1. Matrix example..................................................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-2. Threat intention matrix ......................................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3-3. Example of event mapping .................................................................................. 3-6 Figure 3-4. Event tree example .............................................................................................. 3-8 Figure 3-5. Subjective probability example ............................................................................ 3-9 Figure 3-6. Weighted ranking example ................................................................................ 3-13 Figure 5-1. Matrix comparing courses of action ..................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5-2. Comparison of targets.......................................................................................... 5-5 Figure 5-3. Example association matrix ............................................................................... 5-10 Figure 5-4. Example activities matrix ................................................................................... 5-12 Figure 5-5. Example link diagram......................................................................................... 5-13 Figure 5-6. Nodal linkage example....................................................................................... 5-16 Figure 5-7. Hierarchical organization ................................................................................... 5-17 Figure 5-8. Networked organization and structural options example ................................... 5-18 Figure 5-9. Network chain .................................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-10. Network hub-and-wheel ................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-11. All-channel network.......................................................................................... 5-19 Figure 5-12. Affiliated associate network ............................................................................. 5-20 Figure 5-13. Centrality example ........................................................................................... 5-21 Figure 5-14. Network density comparison ............................................................................ 5-23 Figure 5-15. Example to change in tactics based on density shifts ..................................... 5-23 Figure 5-16. Fragmented network ........................................................................................ 5-24 Figure 5-17. Timeline example ............................................................................................. 5-27 Figure 5-18. Time event chart example................................................................................ 5-28 Figure 5-19. Pattern analysis plot sheet example ................................................................ 5-29 Figure 5-20. Incident overlay example ................................................................................. 5-30 Figure 7-1. Example of an improvised explosive device activity model ................................. 7-3 Figure A-1. Futures wheel example .....................................................................................A-18

Tables

Introductory table 1. Summary of changes...............................................................................vii Table 2-1. Checklist for reasoning.......................................................................................... 2-5 Table 3-1. Subjective probability table ................................................................................. 3-10 Table 6-1. Use of basic diagnostic analytical techniques....................................................... 6-5 Table 6-2. Use of core Army analytical techniques ................................................................ 6-6 Table 6-3. Use of emerging and other structured analytical techniques ................................ 6-8 Table 7-1. Possible nodes located in an improvised explosive device network..................... 7-3

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Contents

Table B-1. Offensive indicators .............................................................................................. B-2 Table B-2. Defensive indicators ............................................................................................. B-3 Table B-3. Delaying indicators ............................................................................................... B-4 Table B-4. Withdrawal indicators ........................................................................................... B-5 Table B-5. Population indicators ............................................................................................ B-5 Table B-6. Propaganda indicators ......................................................................................... B-7 Table B-7. Commodities indicators ........................................................................................ B-8 Table B-8. Environment-related indicators........................................................................... B-10 Table B-9. Improvised explosive device indicators, observables, and signatures............... B-10 Table B-10. Threat environment indicators.......................................................................... B-11 Table B-11. Recurrence of same-clan indicators................................................................. B-11

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18 August 2014

Preface

ATP 2-33.4 provides information on how intelligence personnel conduct intelligence analysis in support of unified land operations. It describes approaches used to conduct intelligence analysis and describes how intelligence analysis assists commanders with understanding the complex environments in which Army forces conduct operations. This manual emphasizes the act of intelligence analysis as a collaborative networked activity. This manual complements doctrinal guidance provided in ADP 2-0 and ADRP 2-0.

ATP 2-33.4 provides direction for intelligence personnel at all echelons. The principal audience for ATP 2-33.4 is Army intelligence officers, noncommissioned officers, Soldiers, and civilians. This publication provides guidelines for the conduct of intelligence analysis to commanders and staffs of Army units and is recommended for incorporation into institutional programs of instruction and unit training. Commanders and staffs of Army headquarters serving as joint task force or multinational headquarters should also refer to applicable joint or multinational doctrine concerning the range of military operations and joint or multinational forces. Trainers and educators throughout the Army will also use this manual.

Commanders, staffs, and subordinates ensure their decisions and actions comply with applicable U.S., international, and, in some cases, host-nation laws and regulations. Commanders at all levels ensure their Soldiers operate in accordance with the law of war and the rules of engagement. (See FM 27-10.)

This publication contains copyrighted material.

ATP 2-33.4 uses joint terms where applicable. Selected joint and Army terms and definitions appear in both the glossary and the text. For definitions shown in the text, the term is italicized and the number of the proponent publication follows the definition.

ATP 2-33.4 applies to the Active Army, the Army National Guard/Army National Guard of the United States, and the United States Army Reserve unless otherwise stated.

The proponent of ATP 2-33.4 is the U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence. The preparing agency is the Capabilities Development and Integration Division, U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence, Fort Huachuca, Arizona. Send comments and recommendations on a DA Form 2028 (Recommended Changes to Publications and Blank Forms) to Commander, U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence, ATTN ATZS-CDI-D (ATP 2-33.4), 550 Cibeque Street, Fort Huachuca, AZ 85613-7017; by e-mail to usarmy.huachuca.icoe.mbx.doctrine@mail.mil; or submit an electronic DA Form 2028.

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Acknowledgements

The critical thinking material has been used with permission from The Foundation for Critical Thinking, , The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking, 2012 and The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking: Concepts and Tools, 2009, by Dr. Linda Elder and Dr. Richard Paul. The copyright owners have granted permission to reproduce material from their works. With their permission, some of the text has been paraphrased and adapted for military purposes.

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18 August 2014

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