September 23-27, 2021 Marc’s NFL Underdog Game of the ...

V O L U M E 33 ? ISSUE 20 ? FEBRUARY 1-13, 2022

Wall-To-Wall Coverage Of Super Bowl 56!

PLAYBOOK 2022 SUPER BOWL GUIDE!

Rams Host Bengals In Battle Of No. 4 Seeds!

EXCLUSIVE STAT-LOG MATCH-UPS!

SB LVI

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SUPER BOWL LVI

SUNDAY - FEBRUARY 13 6:30 PM ET - NBC

LOS ANGELES over Cincinnati by 1

OPENING LINES: RAMS -3.5 / 49.5

N ever underestimate Saint Joe and the Freak Show. No, it's not a 60's rock band. It's Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow and his electrifying partner Ja'Marr Chase, both hailing from the 2019 LSU national championship team. Each is Super Bowl LVI bound after derailing Kansas City for the second time this season, arriving to SoFi Stadium after overcoming 14-point deficits three times in the AFC title game. As Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer tells it, he ran to the window and, "took the Bengals and the 7 points they won't need" in the second meeting this season in the AFC title game between Cincinnati and Kansas City, and it paid off in spades.

While every game in the NFL is a snowflake, the Bengals did all of that and more when they took down the Chiefs by a field goal for the second time this season, this time in OT, after the Chiefs had the ball first. For what it's worth, per Axios Sports, teams that trailed by 18 points this season were 1-115 entering championship Sunday. They're now 2-115. With it, the Bengals have conquered a playoff victory drought of 31 years by landing in Super Bowl XLI.

Meanwhile, the Rams endured a pressure cooker of their own to edge division nemesis San Francisco, 20-17, while scaling a doubledigit 4Q deficit to snap a six-game series losing skein. Many feel QB Matthew Stafford, with star WR Cooper Kupp, are the most dangerous duo in football. Kupp finished the game with 11 catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns. It was the 13th time Kupp netted 100 yards receiving this year ? more than any player in NFL history. He has had 170 receptions, 2,333 yards and 20 TDs thus far this season.

And with it, each team has two weeks to prepare for what should be a war in Los Angeles on Super Bowl Sunday. Let's examine the edges that surround this contest.

DEFENSE VIS A VIS OFFENSE

As we alluded to in past issues of our PLAYBOOK Super Bowl Guide, we're well aware that "defense wins championships". It goes without saying that the teams with the most total yards in the Super Bowl are 41-14 SU. It goes hand-in-hand with the fact that teams with the better defense have won 45 of the 55 Super Bowl games. The Rams bring the league's 14th-ranked defense into SB LVI (Bengals #15), while Los Angeles has held three foes under 200 yards, with the Bengals' season-low coming from a 206-yard effort against the Bears. The Rams also hold the edge offensively behind the league's 7th best unit (375 YPG as opposed to Cincinnati's 14th rated attack of 357 YPG). So, while it appears that neither team's offense nor defense are superior, Los Angeles checks more boxes.

Edge: Rams

RUSH TO VICTORY

The Bengals were 7-1 SUATS this season in games in which they managed to rush for 100 or more yards. The Rams were 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when they reached the century mark on the ground.

Cincinnati's rush offense and defense rank No. 24 and 7, respectively. Los Angeles' offensive and defensive rush attacks rank No. 23 and 5 overall. There is no clear, defined advantage here.

Edge: None

HEAD COACHES

On the head-coaching front, both coaches are relative `new kids on the block,' with Sean McVay in his fifth-season with the Rams, and Zac Taylor in his third-year with the Bengals.

McVay has enjoyed most of his success away from home, going 3315 SU and 28-20 ATS away from Los Angeles, as opposed to 29-14 SU and 21-20-2 ATS in the City of Angels. He is also somewhat of a cripple-shooter, going 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS against .300 or fewer foes as opposed to 23-17 SU and 20-20 ATS against winning opposition.

Taylor is 19-32-1 SU and 28-22-1 ATS overall with Cincinnati, but 17-18-1 SU and 22-13-1 ATS since landing Burrow as the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. In addition, Taylor is 12-7 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .500 or greater record, including 6-1 ATS as an away dog.

Edge: None

QUARTERBACKS

While these two quarterbacks have never squared off in their careers, this will mark only the second Super Bowl game pairing No. 1 QB overall picks since Peyton Manning defeated Cam Newton in Super Bowl 50.

Stafford is 15-5 SU and 10-10 ATS with the Rams, including 8-3 SU and 6-6 ATS since L.A. acquired Odell Beckham Jr., and 3-3 SUATS overall versus .650 or greater foes.

Burrow is 15-14-1 SU and 19-10 ATS with the Bengals, including 136-1 ATS as a dog (13-2-1 ATS +2.5 or more points).

Burrow and his fellow star WR Chase are 7-0 SUATS all-time in postseason games representing the tiger teams of LSU and Cincinnati.

Here is the lifetime record of both QBs during the NFL postseason:

QB

SU ATS PA PC Yds TD INT Rating

Burrow 3-0 3-0 109 75 842 4 2 96.2

Stafford 3-3 3-3 217 146 1813 10 4 100.6

Edge: Bengals

COMMON DENOMINATORS

Both teams each faced 8 common opponents this season and played a total 20 contests. Breaking the results down, the Bengals went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in their nine contests for a net +657 yards. The Rams went 7-4 SU and 2-9 ATS in eleven contests against these same teams for a net +206 yards.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has tackled 9 playoff squads this campaign, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS, for a net -92 yards. Los Angeles has faced 10 playoff teams, going 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS, +83 net yards.

Edge: Bengals

UPS AND DOWNS

The odds makers have done a solid job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games. That's confirmed by the fact that there have been 28 `Overs' and 26 `Unders' in the history of the big game ? with no total available in the inaugural contest. Most recently, 5 of the last 9 Super Bowls have played `Over' the total. On the flip side, 5 of the 9 Super Bowl games with a total of 50 or more points have gone UNDER.

Edge: None

SUPER BOWL HISTORY

? Super Bowl favorites of 5 or less points in `double rest' affairs ? a

week of rest before their first playoff game and week of rest prior to the big game ? are 4-11 SUATS. Neither team qualifies in this matchup of Wild Card entrants.

? Super Bowl teams coming off a win as an underdog of more than

three points are 11-3-1 ATS since 1980 (Bengals).

? Until last year's Super Bowl, the two conferences had split wins right

down the middle in all Super Bowls, going 27-27, before the Bucs put

the NFC atop the leader board. In fact, the NFC has controlled the last

36 Super Bowls, going 22-15 SU, and 21-14-2 ATS. However, the AFC

is 15-9 SU the last twenty-three games (the NFC was 13-0 SU from

1985 through 1997).

(Continued on next page)

2022 PLAYBOOK NFL PLAYOFF GUIDE ? PAGE 2

? Teams with the lower win percentage are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS

in the last 15 Super Bowls (Bengals).

? Teams who manage to score less than 20 points in the Super

Bowl are 2-25 SU and 4-22-1 ATS since 1980. Teams that score 27 or more points in the Super Bowl are 30-4 SU and 27-6-1 ATS since 1980. FYI: Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in 14 of Burrow's 30 starts (46.67%), and the Bengals have scored fewer than 20 points in 9 of Burrow's 30 starts (30.00%). Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford has scored 27 or more points in 12 of his 20 starts with the Rams (60.00%), and less than 20 points in 2 of his 20 games with Los Angeles (10.0%). Note: only two teams have ever won a Super Bowl when failing to score 20 points.

? The SU winner of the Super Bowl game is 47-6-2 ATS. Pick the winner of the game and you'll likely have a winning ticket. Good luck with that.

Edge: Bengals

STATS THAT MATTER Okay, so it's the lowest-seeded Super Bowl matchup in history. Draw your own conclusions, but there are other stats that come into play, such as...

? The Rams have 14 TOs the past seven games. The Bengals have 2. ? Cincinnati has been outgained in each of its three playoff wins. ? The Bengals were 2-14 two years ago. Matthew Stafford was

3-12-1 two years ago.

Finally, when it comes down to placekicking in the postseason, rookie Cincinnati kicker Evan McPherson was perfect through the AFC playoffs, connecting on 12 consecutive field-goal attempts -- four in each of Cincinnati's three wins.

Edge: None

THE BOTTOM LINE

There is no refuting the fact that the Rams were expected to be the stronger team at the start of the season: the season win-total posted at the Westgate SuperBook was 10.5 as opposed to Cincinnati's 6.5. But the Bengals have closed the gap, as the 4-point spread in this game matches the difference of the two teams' preseason win-total differential.

So now Burrow can become the only quarterback to ever win a Heisman Trophy, a National Championship, and the Super Bowl with a win on Super Sunday. That's a lot of pressure, but JB9 is indeed a Super Freak and appears to be up to the task in what should be another nail-biter to conclude a 2022 postseason of thrilling games.

TEAM STAT MATCH-UPS

LEGEND ? OWL: Foe's Win-Loss mark before game is played, PF-PA: Points scored for and against, SU: Outright win or loss of game, Line: Game's CLOSING line, ATS: Win or loss of game against the pointspread, O/U: Final Over/ Under total and result, OYP: Offensive yards per play, OFR: Offensive rush yards, OFP: Offensive pass yards, OYD: Total offensive yards gained, DYD: Total defensive yards allowed, DFP: Defensive pass yards, DFR: Defensive rush yards, DYP: Defensive yards per play, RES: A formulated Re-Score of the game based strictly on actual yardage gained and allowed, F-A: `F' shows total number of turnovers committed by subject team; `A' shows total turnovers committed by opponent. Note: A red check mark at the left of the log box indicates the team outgained its opponent.

NO. 4 LOS ANGELES RAMS (15-5)

NO. 4 CINCINNATI BENGALS (13-7)

OPPONENT DATE OWL PF PA SU LINE ATS O/U OYP OFR OFP OYD DYD DFP DFR DYP RES F-A OPPONENT DATE OWL PF PA SU LINE ATS O/U OYP OFR OFP OYD DYD DFP DFR DYP RES F-A

CHICAGO 9/12 0-0 34 14 W -9.5 W O46 7.9 74 312 386 322 188 134 4.9 26-21 0-2

MINNESOTA 9/12 0-0 27 24 W 3 W O47.5 5.8 149 217 366 403 336 67 5.6 24-27 0-1

at Indianapolis 9/19 0-1 27 24 W -4 L O47.5 6.3 101 270 371 354 245 109 5.7 25-24 2-2 at Chicago

9/19 0-1 17 20 L 0 L U44.5 5 69 179 248 206 83 123 3.6 17-14 4-1

TAMPA BAY 9/26 2-0 34 24 W PK W O55 6.6 76 331 407 446 411 35 6.6 27-30 0-0 at Pittsburgh ? 9/26 1-1 24 10 W 2.5 W U42 6.4 96 172 268 342 297 45 4.7 18-23 1-2

ARIZONA ? 10/3 3-0 20 37 L -4 L O54 6.3 121 280 401 465 249 216 6.5 27-31 2-0 JACKSONVILLE 9/30 0-3 24 21 W -8.5 L U46 7.8 78 342 420 341 202 139 6.3 28-23 0-0

at Seattle ? 10/7 2-2 26 17 W -3 W U53.5 7.2 118 358 476 354 262 92 6.1 32-24 1-2

GREEN BAY 10/10 3-1 22 25 L 2 L U50 5.9 103 264 367 466 333 133 7.6 24-31 2-1

at NY Giants DETROIT

10/17 1-4 38 11 W -7.5 W U49.5 5.7 131 234 365 261 201 60 3.8 24-17 2-4 at Detroit

10/17 0-5 34 11 W -3.5 W U46.5 6 142 256 398 228 192 36 3.8 27-15 1-1

10/24 0-6 28 19 W -16.5 L U50.5 6.2 47 327 374 415 278 137 6.4 25-28 0-2 at Baltimore ? 10/24 5-1 41 17 W 6 W O46 8.4 111 409 520 393 278 115 6.0 35-26 1-0

at Houston 10/31 1-6 38 22 W -16.5 L O47 7.2 165 302 467 323 279 44 6.1 31-22 0-1 at NY Jets

10/31 1-5 31 34 L -12 L O43 6.2 41 277 318 511 414 97 6.7 21-34 1-3

TENNESSEE 11/7 6-2 16 28 L -7.5 L U53 5 94 253 347 194 125 69 3.7 23-13 2-1

CLEVELAND ? 11/7 4-4 16 41 L -1.5 L O47.5 5.4 85 263 348 361 208 153 8.2 23-24 3-0

at San Francisco ? 11/15 3-5 10 31 L -3.5 L U50 5.3 52 OPEN DATE 11/21

at Green Bay 11/28 8-3 28 36 L -1.5 L O46.5 6 68

226 278 335 179 156 5.3 19-22 2-0

OPEN DATE 11/14

at Las Vegas 11/21 5-4 32 13 W -2.5 W U51

285 353 399 307 92 5.2 24-27 3-1 PITTSBURGH ? 11/28 5-4-1 41 10 W -3.5 W O44

4.3 159 129 288 278 206 72 6.2 19-19 1-2 5.9 198 172 370 301 250 51 5.4 25-20 1-3

JACKSONVILLE 12/5 2-9 37 7 W -14.5 W U47.5 6.4 128 290 418 197 136 61 3.7 28-13 0-2

LA CHARGERS 12/5 6-5 22 41 L -3 L O49.5 5.5 96 260 356 363 284 79 6.4 24-24 4-3

at Arizona ? 12/13 10-2 30 23 W 3.5 W O50.5 7 89 267 356 447 344 103 6.3 24-30 0-2 SAN FRANCISCO 12/12 6-6 23 26 L 1 L U49.5 6.6 86 311 397 355 255 100 5.5 26-24 2-0

SEATTLE ? at Minnesota

at Baltimore

12/21 5-8 20 10 W -7 12/26 7-7 30 23 W -3 1/2 8-7 20 19 W -7

W U47 5.7 123 209 332 214 134 80 4.3 22-14 1-1 at Denver

12/19 7-6 15 10 W 2.5 W U43.5 5.2 113 136 249 292 159 133 4.3 17-19 0-1

W O48.5 5.1 159 197 356 361 295 66 6.0 24-24 3-1 BALTIMORE ? 12/26 8-6 41 21 W -7.5 W O43.5 8.6 77 498 575 334 295 39 6.0 38-22 0-1

L U47 6.8 73 300 373 327 162 165 5.1 25-22 3-2 KANSAS CITY 1/2 11-4 34 31 W 3.5 W O51 8.1 60 415 475 414 259 155 7.1 32-28 0-0

SAN FRAN ? 1/9 9-7 24 27 L -3 L O46.5 4.5 64 201 265 449 314 135 7.0 18-30 2-2 at Cleveland ? 1/9 7-9 16 21 L 6.5 W U38 3.9 79 103 182 376 171 205 5.8 12-25 0-2

ARIZONA ? Ply 1/17 11-6 34 11 W -3 W U49.5 6.7 140 235 375 183 122 61 3.5 25-12 0-2

LAS VEGAS Ply 1/15 10-7 26 19 W -5.5 W U48.5 5.2 83 225 308 385 282 103 5.7 21-26 0-2

at Tampa Bay Ply 1/23 14-4 30 27 W 2.5 W O47.5 6.3 73 355 428 359 308 51 5.3 29-24 4-2 at Tennessee Ply 1/22 12-5 19 16 W 3.5 W U48.5 6.3 65 280 345 353 213 140 6.9 23-24 1-3

SAN FRAN ? Ply 1/30 12-7 20 17 W -3.5 L U45.5 5.4 70 326 396 282 232 50 5.6 26-19 1-1 at Kansas City Ply 1/30 14-5 27 24 W 7 W U54.5 5.5 116 243 359 375 236 139 6.0 24-25 1-2

AVERAGES OFF DEF

SCORING 27.0 21.0

RUSHING 98

96

PASSING 278 239

TOTAL 376 335

OFF DEF

YDS/POINT 13.9 16.0

YDS/RUSH 3.8

3.9

YDS/PASS 7.9

6.4

YDS/PLAY 6.1

5.4

AVERAGES OFF DEF SCORING 27.0 22.0 RUSHING 100 106 PASSING 258 248 TOTAL 358 354

OFF DEF

YDS/POINT 13.3 16.1

YDS/RUSH 4.0

4.5

YDS/PASS 7.8

6.7

YDS/PLAY 6.1

5.8

2022 PLAYBOOK NFL PLAYOFF GUIDE ? PAGE 3

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