TheMarket.co.za



Welcome to THE BIG PICTURE Monthly Report

Date of Issue: 03 April 2017

By Colin Abrams

|Classic INVESTING Rule: |

| |

|“Cash is for winners. If you don't like the market or have anything compelling to buy, it’s never wrong to go with cash.” |

INTRODUCTION:

There are a number of themes that come through in this months newsletter (sidestepping the junk downgrade for a minute), based on the longer-term charts. The major themes are firstly that there is more upside to come on the US and other major overseas stock market indices. While targets are given on a number of international indices, when exactly these markets finally top out will need to be assessed in the months ahead.

Another theme is that gold shares on the JSE are looking increasingly ‘setup’ for another significant leg to the upside. We show charts of the JSE gold index, the dollar gold price, and Newgold in this issue.

Then there's the US dollar, which is starting the final part of its final leg up, of a dollar bull market that started in 2011. It is quite possible that resources stocks start rallying again despite coming dollar strength, in anticipation/discounting the end of the dollar bull market. (When the dollar declines, commodities typically rally). In this regard, the Baltic Dry index is also shown, which is attempting an important long-term upside breakout right now. (This is a good indicator of commodity prices).

But returning to the SA downgrade and the rand; the rand is doing a lot better than one would expect (perhaps the downgrade to junk was already discounted months back). The rand is mostly linked to commodity prices though. But if the rand does weaken further from here some important targets are available, based on its longer-term chart. Overall, we focus a lot on commodities and related charts, in this month’s issue.

|Executive Summary: |

| |

|Nasdaq (chart 1): HOLD US STOCKS. |

|Dax Index (chart 2): HOLD |

|Hang Seng (chart 3): MED-TERM BUY |

|JSE All Share Inx (chart 4): HOLD |

|JSE Resi 10 Inx (chart 5): HOLD |

|Findi 30 vs Resi 10 Inx (chart 6): RATIO OF 50:50 IN EACH SECTOR |

|JSE Gold Inx (chart 7): LOOK TO START NIBBLING AGAIN |

|Baltic Dry Index (chart 8): BUY A BREAKOUT |

|Gold ($) (chart 9): ADD TO ON A NEW BREAKOUT |

|Rand Platinum price ($) (chart 10): LOOK TO BUY/ADD TO PLATINUM STOCKS |

|US Dollar Inx (chart 11): HOLD (LONG) US DOLLARS |

|USD/ZAR: (chart 12): BIAS MOVING TOWARDS RAND WEAKNESS |

|Santam (chart 13): BUY/ADD TO |

|Sappi (chart 14): HOLD/ADD TO/BUY IF NOT IN |

|Newgold (chart 15): BUY |

|Netcare (chart 16): SELL |

|Astral (chart 17): BUY |

STOCK INDICES

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

Investment Strategy: HOLD US STOCKS

Long-Term Trend: UP

Chart 1. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The NASDAQ which has the strongest of the three main US stock indices (with S&P, Dow), continues to climb towards its minimum upside target, from a channel formed by lines 1 and 2. That target is 6300. (It is currently at 5894). As such, the outlook is still good for US stocks.

• Its monthly Stochastic is overbought and giving a neg. divergence, but it can remain overbought for a few months more before we get a correction.

• The bottom window shows the Nasdaq vs the Dow on a relative basis. A healthy bull market typically has the Nasdaq outperforming the Dow (a rising ratio line). While this ratio has been moving up since Nov., what is interesting is that the ratio has not been able to break out above line 4 resistance on this main rally that started in February 2016. (And the rally that started more recently in Nov. 2016 has not been able to break out above its Sep 2016 high on the ratio).

o This is a worrying sign for the US stock market in general. And my feeling is once, the upside target on the Nasdaq has been reached, extreme caution will be required.

• For now, US stocks are still a hold. But once the upside target is reached one should taking partial profits on long-term positions, and be tightening med/long-term stops a lot e.g. to a breaking of its prior one-month low. Line 3 is key support, at 5570 for Apr. (and rising by 100 pts per month).

DAX INDEX

Investment Strategy: HOLD

Long-Term Trend: UP

Chart 2. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The German Dax is moving up towards its first main target (T1) at 13 050, based on a H/Sh continuation pattern.

• It has a long-term upside target to 189 700, based on a massive ascending triangle (lines 1 and 2).

• My feeling is it will get to Target 1 (13 050) and then soon thereafter start a significant correction. The Dax is currently at 12 312.

• It remains a hold for now (it was first recommended when it broke out above line 2 in 2013).

• Once it gets to its first target we’ll be looking for reason to reduce holdings.

• For now, key support is line 3, currently at 10 500. Thereafter, long-term support, line 2, is at 8350. But for now the outlook is still good. Moreover, there is very good long-term upside potential here.

HANG SENG INDEX

Investment Strategy: MED-TERM BUY

Long-Term Trend: SIDEWAYS

Chart 3. (Monthly)

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Overall Comment: The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is one we haven't looked at for a long time. While it has basically moved sideways since 2009, it has currently formed an inverse H/Sh on its monthly chart above, and broke out above its neckline (line 1) in March.

• There is ongoing upside here in the months ahead, to long-term resistance (line 2) at the 273.50 level. The exact target from the inverse H/Sh is to 273.00. This is basically a view on the Chinese stock market.

• Its monthly Stochastic is moving into its overbought zone, but for now there should be some more months upside to come. (Even if you don't take a position on this index itself, it does show that the general outlook for overseas stocks is still positive, especially when viewed together with the Nasdaq and Dax above).

• This is for med-term only at this stage, not long-term investors. It’s a buy for the med-term.

• The main overseas listed ETF that tracks the Hang Seng is IShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF, symbol EWH. Some local brokerages also offer access to the Hang Seng via CFDs (which can be traded in a non-leveraged way, which is more suitable for med to longer-term players). Finally, some local unit trusts offer direct exposure to the Chinese/Asian region, which should be correlated to the above chart.

• So, in summary, the target is up to 270-273 (it’s currently trading at 242.61). The stop-loss is a weekly close below 214.88 (its right shoulder low).

JSE ALL SHARE INDEX

Investment Strategy: HOLD

Long-Term Trend: UP (SIDEWAYS SINCE 2014)

Chart 4. (Quarterly)

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Overall Comment: Time to take a big step back and assess where we are in the bigger scheme of things. This chart goes back to 1987. Right now we have the longest sideways move since then, in a channel formed by lines 4 and 5. (See inset for a close up of it).

• What is significant here is how narrow this channel actually is, on a relative basis to historical price action. What this means is when the breakout eventually occurs (up or down), the move is going to be explosive.

• But if the move is to the downside i.e. breaking and closing below line 4 (45 975), what is the worst we can expect? It will be down to lines 1 and 2, at the 33 300 level. Admittedly that is pretty bad. (That would be about a 36% sell-off from current levels). On the other hand, it probably wouldn't be more than that. And given how quickly our market recovers from major corrections/crashes/bear markets, the price will reverse right back up again in about 6 months +.

o So that's the worst case scenario.

• If the market breaks out to the upside, closing above line 5 (55 355), then we’re looking at a rally to the 64 500 level at least, and probably to 70 000.

• So, which of the two will it be? My feeling is the eventual break will be to the downside. I'm basing this on a number of factors, mostly technical, but not all. (Don’t forget the bull market is almost 9 years old).

• For now, the JSE is still a hold, but I would not be averse to reducing exposure if the price gets closer to the 54 000-55 000 zone. Certainly, a monthly close (or two consecutive weekly) closes below line 4 (45 975) will be for exiting stocks completely, or hedging ones entire exposure.

BROAD JSE SECTORS

JSE RESOURCES 10 INDEX (RESI 10)

Investment Strategy: HOLD

Long-Term Trend: TECHNICALLY SIDEWAYS TO DOWN, BUT IMPROVING.

Chart 5. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The resi 10 index gave a bullish reversal monthly candle last month off line 2 support. We need to see if this was just a knee-jerk reaction to a weaker rand, but more upside follow through is needed to get the recovery underway again (and to add to holdings).

• But for now I am still working under the hypotheses of the resi 10 being in the consolidation part of a ‘measured move’ (as drawn in), with a higher target to 41 450.

• Its monthly Stochastic can still pull back further, so this index is likely to remain sideways for a while longer before getting going again.

• Resi stocks are still a hold (although they have been underperforming of late – see next chart).

• A monthly close below last months low (29 555) would be a very negative sign, and reason to reduce holdings here.

JSE FINDI 30 VS RESI 10 INDEX

Investment Strategy: RATIO OF 50:50 IN EACH SECTOR

Long-Term Trend: FINDI STRONGER SINCE 2008 (WEAKER DURING PAST YEAR).

Chart 6. (Weekly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The findi 30/resi 10 ratio, while having improved this year so far (findi outperforming resi again), hasn't given a decisive breakout above line 2 resistance.

• Its RSI of the ratio (on top) did break line 4 resistance there, and is heading back for a retest of that breakout level. So we’ll see if the ratio can advance further from here. A move above its highs of recent weeks will be bullish for the ratio, and more confirming of further upside for it (findi to continue outperforming).

• The ratio could be forming a base before moving up again in earnest.

• But either way, for now maintain a 50:50 exposure between findi and resi stocks. My feeling is that this ratio is going to continue making its way higher again (a lot depends on the US dollar), but for now I'm happy to maintain and approx. 50:50 split.

JSE STOCK GROUPS

JSE GOLD INDEX

Investment Strategy: LOOK TO START NIBBLING AGAIN

Long-Term Trend: SIDEWAYS

Chart 7. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: We advised to exit gold share after the gold index completed an Elliot wave sequence up on its monthly chart in August last year. It has fallen sharply since then but is now showing signs of stabilising and forming a bottom.

• Last month and in December, the price formed two bullish reversal monthly candles at the same level. Line 1 is important support now at 1170.

• Its monthly Stochastic (on top) is also oversold, which is bullish.

• Some more upside follow through is needed though to say we’re starting a new uptrend.

• While med-term players can start nibbling again, the main buy signal will be a monthly close above 1505 (dotted red line).

• A monthly close below line 1 (1170) will be the stop.

• Upside potential to line 2 initially (2170). And major resistance is at line 3 (3277). I don't think it’s going to line 3 just yet. The US dollar needs to give a breakdown of major support for that to happen (resulting in a massive run in the gold price). See Chart 11 of the dollar index.

• A long-term support zone from the year 1992 is at 750-670.

COMMODITIES

BALTIC DRY INDEX

Investment Strategy: BUY A BREAKOUT

Long-Term Trend: SIDEWAYS TO DOWN SINCE 2010

Chart 8. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: I've inserted the Baltic Dry index in this section even though it is not actually a commodity per se. However, being an index of international shipping costs, it is very closely linked to the commodity cycle.

• Very significantly right now is the Baltic Dry index has closed above line 1 to potentially confirm a large inverse H/Sh on its monthly chart. The breakout is not decisive as yet, and there is long-term resistance (line 2) just above it.

• However, a monthly close above line 2 (1370) for April will confirm a very important breakout, and will be one more factor pointing to the commodity downturn from 2011 being over, and a new up-cycle in place.

• So, a monthly close above line 2 (1370) will be a more confirming signal for long-term investors to be buying resi stocks. (The Baltic Dry index itself is not a tradable instrument).

• It is currently trading at 1297. If we get the upside breakout it will set up a minimum target to 5180, based on the inverse H/Sh. That’s a huge move. Commodities could well test their 2011 highs as a result.

GOLD ($)

Investment Strategy: ADD TO ON A NEW BREAKOUT

Long-Term Trend: DOWN SINCE 2011 (SIDEWAYS SINCE 2013)

Chart 9. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The dollar gold price is trying to recover after some steep selling off in the second half of last year. But ultimately, it’s still in a multi-year down channel, and needs to break out above line 2 to really get going.

• Line 2 is at $1350 for April and declining by about $10 per month hereafter.

• It’s likely the gold price is still hammering out a massive inverse H/Sh (s-s-h-s). If that's the case, we might get one more move down to retest line 3 ($1138) before the upside breakout occurs. (To create symmetry by forming two right shoulders, like the two left shoulders).

• Either way, a decisive monthly close above line 2 will be for adding to current holdings; and a close above $1375 (the neckline, not drawn in) will be the signal to buy gold aggressively.

• For now, maintain current holdings. Note, the Krugerrand (not shown) is looking very interesting right now having corrected for over six months, to support.

RAND PLATINUM PRICE

Investment Strategy: LOOK TO BUY/ADD TO PLATINUM STOCKS

Long-Term Trend: SIDEWAYS

Chart 10. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The rand platinum price sold off dramatically in the second half last year, and has found support at line 1. It rallied off there in January, and again last month. There is a good correlation between this chart and local platinum shares (for obvious reasons).

• Its monthly Stochastic is oversold which is generally a positive.

• Any platinum stocks bought in early-2016 are still a hold; and if this index closes above line 3 (13 675) on a monthly closing basis, then that will be for adding to/buying platinum stocks (not aggressively though). The rand platinum price is currently at 12 821.

• Upside potential is to line/s 2 resistance at 16 250-16 550.

• To the downside, a monthly close below last month’s low (and its Nov 2015 low) at 11 880, will be the stop level, and see platinum stocks fall dramatically again. (This is the far less likely scenario).

CURRENCIES

US DOLLAR INDEX

Investment Strategy: HOLD (LONG) US DOLLARS

Long-Term Trend: UP, BUT OVERALL GETTING EXTENDED

Chart 11. (Weekly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: In last month’s newsletter we looked at a monthly chart of the dollar index. Above is a weekly chart, in order to hone in on exactly what is happening right now, as the dollar begins a final leg up.

• Please refer to last months issue to get the big picture Elliot Wave pattern. To re-cap though, in earlry-2016 the dollar index began its fifth and final major leg higher (red labels).

• The dollar rallied well into early-January this year, making a wave iii (in grey) (i.e. wave iii of big wave 5). Since then, it has made an a-b-c correction (blue labels). The decline of the past month was the wave c.

• But last week we got a bullish reversal week up and we are now starting a wave v of big wave 5 i.e. the final leg up of its final leg up. (Sorry if this is confusing for non Elliot Wavers).

• As drawn in, I'm looking for the dollar index to rally for the next few months to end its entire bull market that began in 2011. Note, its weekly Stochastic is also oversold with a positive divergence.

• So, what this means is commodities will probably be under a bit of pressure during this final wave v of 5 (or, they might even start rallying in anticipation of the top to come). But once the top is in for the dollar, commodity prices will really take off, as the dollar moves down again.

• For now, one should continue to hold US dollars. The target I'm looking for here is 105.20-106.

USD/ZAR

Investment Strategy: BIAS MOVING TOWARDS RAND WEAKNESS

Long-Term Trend: RAND WEAKNESS (BUT STRENGTH OVER PAST YEAR)

Chart 12. (Weekly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: The latest political crisis has sharply reversed the rand, and cut short its attempt to reach a downside target of 11.75, based on channel 1-2.

• Right now it is testing important dollar resistance (line 3) at 13.75. A decisive close (weekly) above there will negate the downside target and put in motion a target to line 2 first (14.60 level). And then to 15.40.

• The 15.40 target is based on a 15-month channel that it will break if it closes above 13.75 (on a weekly closing basis).

• The weekly Stochastic (on top) is oversold for the dollar, so the rand has ‘energy’ to weaken.

• From an investors perspective, I would want to see a monthly close above 13.75 to warrant exiting all rand longs and selling it short. Although med-term players to sell short the rand on a weekly close above 13.75. Targets are as mentioned above (14.60 and 15.40); and stop-loss will be a weekly close below 13.19.

STOCKS

SANTAM (SNT)

Investment Strategy: BUY/ADD TO

Long-Term Trend: UP

Chart 13. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: Santam which is a defensive-type stock in a sector that almost everyone needs, short-term insurance, is breaking out of a two-year inverse H/Sh continuation pattern.

• As such, it is currently breaking out above a resistance zone formed by lines 1 and 2 (R245-R250 respectively).

• This breakout is pointing to an ongoing target up to R344 longer-term.

• We have looked at this stock before, and it’s certainly still a hold. If in, add to holdings, and if not in, it can be bought at current levels.

• The stop-loss is a monthly close below its right shoulder of R216.00. (Santam is currently trading at R257.11).

SAPPI (SAP)

Investment Strategy: HOLD/ADD TO/BUY IF NOT IN

Long-Term Trend: UP SINCE 2013

Chart 14. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: Sappi, which we've added to the Model Portfolio in this issue, is doing very well as it continues its recovery.

• I'm looking for further upside to line 1 initially (R110). But over time, if it closes above line 1 on a monthly basis, look for further upside to its R140 high from 2007.

• If you are holding this stock, add to holdings. If not in, it can still be bought. But med-term players only, lock in some profits at the R110 level. Apart from that, it is a long-term hold.

• The stop-loss depends on how aggressive you want to be. The first support level is line 2 at R82.50 for April (and rising by R2.50 per month hereafter). That would be a med-term stop.

• Long-term support is line 3, which is at R58, with more important support at R50. For now, investors to place their stops as a monthly close below R50. But once the price gets to R110 (line 2) look to tighten trailing stops a lot for long-term players e.g. to a monthly close below line 2.

• The inset is a close up of its more recent price action.

NEWGOLD (GLD)

Investment Strategy: BUY

Long-Term Trend: UP

Chart 15. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: Newgold is the rand gold price ETF listed on the JSE. In this months newsletter we’ve looked at charts of the JSE gold index, and the dollar gold price. Newgold has got a classic bullish setup for longer-term players, with the following characteristics:

• A large correction stopping at a confluence of two important support levels (lines 1 and 2).

• It gave a classic bullish reversal candle there last month (circled).

• Its monthly Stochastic is oversold.

• All this points to one starting to buy gold shares again. Refer also to Chart 7 of the JSE gold index in terms of a gold shares strategy. But for now, one can start buying Newgold.

• Any retest of last month’s low (if we happen to get that) at R147.21, will be for adding to holdings (on at least a reversal week up from there).

• In terms of targets, look for a rally to R179-R188. It is currently at R160.74. This is more a med-term position than pure long-term (as is always the case with gold shares in general).

• Stop-loss is a monthly close below R145, which is slightly below March’s low.

NETCARE (NTC)

Investment Strategy: SELL

Long-Term Trend: DOWN SINCE 2015 (BEYOND THAT TECHNICALLY UP)

Chart 16. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: On a more negative note, Netcare dropped dramatically last Thursday after releasing its results and this saw it break down below line 3 support. This is a significant development.

• In November last year it broke line 1 support going back to 2008. So some crucial support levels have now been broken.

• The last bastion of hope for the bulls is line 4 (R25.50), which it is currently testing. Another potential positive is that its monthly Stochastic (on top) is oversold.

• But all things considered, my opinion is to sell this stock.

• If it can ‘reclaim’ line 2 resistance which is currently at R32, by closing above it on a monthly basis, we’ll look at it again from a buying point of view.

• But for now, downside potential (if line 4 breaks) is to R20.50, and worst case down to R15.50.

ASTRAL (ARL)

Investment Strategy: BUY

Long-Term Trend: SIDEWAYS (BUT UP SINCE JAN. 2016)

Chart 17. (Monthly)

[pic]

Overall Comment: Astral has been added to our Model Portfolio (next page) and I like its chart for a number of reasons:

• After giving a sharp first leg up from a major low in January 2016, it consolidated for most of last year (in a channel, lines 1 and 2). It has since broken out, and the first leg up allows for a “measured move” target by replicating the length of that first leg up. That target is R179.75.

• Further potential here will be to a solid resistance zone at line/s 3 (R195-R205).

• Astral therefore is a buy, perhaps more med-term than pure long-term. (To be honest in the current market environment, there are not too many long-term buys available based on the charts right now).

• Take half profits at the R179.75 target, and the rest closer to R195.

• The stop-loss is a monthly close below R126. Then once it gets to R179.75 bring it up to your entry price (breakeven) on the second half of this position.

MODEL PORTFOLIO

❖ We are presenting our recommended portfolio here, from an investment perspective. This portfolio will mostly comprise of stocks that are in the top 80 stocks on the JSE. The portfolio will be limited to about 10 stocks only.

❖ The portfolio will be rebalanced (changes made) every few months or less. As such, it is not a ‘buy and hold’ portfolio. It has a medium to long-term outlook.

❖ It's a low maintenance portfolio, and does not need to be monitored intra-month.

❖ Its performance is benchmarked against the JSE Top 40 index.

❖ Performance figures (below) do not include re-investing of profits, which would make the actual performance significantly higher.

MODEL PORTFOLIO (medium/long-term): (alphabetically)

- Anglo

- Astral

- Barworld

- Exxaro

- Glencore

- Kumba-IO

- PSG

- Richemont

- Sappi

- South32

* added to list: Astral, Exxaro, Richemont, Sappi.

* dropped from list: ArcMittal, Aveng, BHPBilliton, Nedbank.

Performance Summary:

Year-to-date (not including new additions):

Model portfolio +4.37% (Benchmark: Top 40 index +3.06%)

Since Inception (January 2011).

Model portfolio +128.63% (Benchmark: Top 40 index +49.29%)

Comment: The Model Portfolio underperformed the benchmark for March. This was to a large extent due to our two best performers (by far) during the month, PSG and Nedbank, getting hammered in the last few days, and particularly Friday, due to the Gordhan crisis. Both closed slightly lower on the month. South32 was the best performer, while Arcmittal the biggest decliner. It has been replaced.

In total, four stocks have been removed from the portfolio and replaced. The stocks that have been added are from across a range of sectors, and all doing relatively well.

Because the market is still within an overall large consolidation phase (of the past three years), and a hoped for rally to new all time highs on the All Share index has not materialised, my suggestions is to reduce overall exposure from 100% to 70%. Indeed, this year (so far) is proving much the same as last year, which could to be the case until we break out of this large range (see Chart 4).

OVERALL SUMMARY

There are the overseas stock indices and then there is the JSE. They are two different ‘animals’ right now. The JSE these days is largely (but not entirely) governed by what the rand does. Lack of significant growth in the local economy also plays a big part. (Which of course can affect the rand as well). The overseas stock indices are pointing to more upside to come, at least for a few months, if not more.

On the JSE, there are very few long-term buying opportunities available in my opinion. Most are more of a med-term nature right now. Arguably and hedge socks are cheap, but from a charting perspective they need to do quite a bit more to warrant buying them.

The most important area is still the US dollar and where it goes in the months ahead. This is relevant, for our purposes, mainly with regards to what commodity prices will do (affecting resi stocks). It will also affect the rand, which will affect rand hedge stocks. So I continue to believe the US dollar (as seen by the dollar index) is the most important chart to be monitoring, as we continue to travail treacherous waters.

Finally, a long-term chart of the JSE All Share index was shown in this issue, which puts what's happening right now on the local market into perspective. And specifically, how much we could fall or go up (ideally). Either way, price action on the All Share index over the past three years shows the JSE building up for a large and sharp move. It’s important for long-term investors to be on their toes for the possibility that the breakout move might be to the downside (when it eventually happens). We will aim to be prepared in advance, whichever way it goes.

The next issue of The Big Picture is scheduled for Monday 8th May.

Sincerely,

Colin Abrams

TheMarket.co.za

DEFINITION:

- Long-term: For the purposes of The Big Picture newsletter, long-term is defined as 2-5 years.

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Information for stock and index observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the stock/index/commodity/or currency observations and opinions are entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. The information provided here is for interest and educational purposes only, and does not constitute advice. The editor and publisher of TheMarket.co.za newsletter will not be held responsible for losses incurred as a result the opinions expressed herein. All information herein is based on opinion; markets follow their own course. You must assess the risk of any trade and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein (or options thereon). We will from time to time have a position in the securities described herein. One should always use protective stops on all trading and investment positions. There is a risk of monetary loss in trading and/or investing on the financial markets.

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