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Pizza Market 2021Pizza Powered Through the PandemicSome may argue pizza is the ultimate comfort food, but, according to a March 2020 survey from research firm Datassential, pizza was consumers’ first choice when they had to stay at home during the early-pandemic period.Data from another market research company, Sense360, clearly indicated pizza chains were the early survivors of the pandemic, as March sales only decreased 5%, compared to -20% for all quick-service restaurants and -33% for the fast-casual sector. Fast-forward to November when Black Box Intelligence reported a 10.3% decrease in same-store sales for all US restaurants; however, the good news for the pizza sector was consumers said their best food experience was with pizza.Pizza Sector Performance, October 2019–September 2020MetricAmount% ChangeStore LocationsTotal% ChangeTotal US sales$46.25 B-0.20%Total US78,092+0.47%Total US sales: independents$18.64 B+0.58%Total independents41,879 +0.74%Total US sales: chains$27.61 B-0.72%Total chains36,213+0.17%PMQ Magazine, December 2020Pandemic CasualtiesCHD Expert reported 43,836 US restaurants closed during the first three quarters of 2020. Many were small, local restaurants, including many pizzerias. According to Kalinowski Equity Research, 7.5% of independent, mom-and-pop restaurants will close during 2020.Several chains also suffered, such as California Pizza Kitchen, which filed for bankruptcy during July, but couldn’t interest any bidders during an October auction; however, the chain emerged from its bankruptcy during November.During Q3, Pizza Hut closed 672 restaurants because of the bankruptcy of NPC International Inc., its largest franchisee, which was planning to buy those locations as well as hundreds of Wendy’s parison of 2019 and 2020 Total Pizza Restaurants by Type and Segment, 2020SegmentChainsIndependents2019202020192020Family style: Café, family-style, diner3683653,5733,460Family style: Traditional, casual dining1,7801,6826,6366,366Limited service: Delivery and takeout only5768115111Limited service: Fast casual1,9321.880254Limited service: Quick-service, fast food, snacks34,01432,96426,91027,409CHD Expert, September 2020Major Pizza Players Enjoy Sales IncreasesBecause the major pizza chains have been developing their delivery model for years, they were better positioned to withstand the negative effects of the pandemic. For example, Domino’s Q1 2020 same-store sales increased 1.6%, and then +7.1% for Q2.Papa John’s performance has been even better. North American Q1 same-store sales increased 5.3%, exploded to +28.0% during Q2 and continued the record performance, with a 23.8% increase during Q3 for North American same-store sales.Pizza Hut’s Q1 2020 same-store US sales decreased 7.0%, but increased 5.0% for Q2 and another +6.0% for Q3. A positive trend for Pizza Hut is the pandemic helped improve its delivery business as it continues to pivot from a dine-in -10 US Pizza Chains, December 2019Chain2019 Sales% ChangeChain2019 Sales% Change#1: Domino’s $7.04 B+6.87%#6: Marco’s Pizza $628.1 M+4.82%#2: Pizza Hut$5.56 B+0.57%#7: California Pizza Kitchen$621.4 M-3.27%#3: Little Caesars$3.77 B+1.65%#8: MOD Pizza$483.5 M+23.75%#4: Papa John’s$2.64 B-2.74%#9: Mellow Mushroom$476.9 M+2.98%#5: Papa Murphy’s Pizza$748.4 M-5.94%#10: Round Table Pizza$447.5 M+0.56%PMQ Pizza Magazine (Technomic), December 2020Pizza Patron ProfileAccording to The Media Audit 60-Market 2020 Aggregate Survey, most of which were conducted during the pandemic, 20.3% of all adults 18+ said they had eaten at any pizza restaurant during the past 4 weeks, and 23.5% were 18–49, compared to 16.2% 50+.That statistics don’t include the many children and teens who love pizza. Changing the base to adults with children at home age 6–12 increases the total target of families to 28.1%, and 28.4% for children at home age 13–17.In the adults 18+ demographic, African Americans and Latinx Americans ate at any pizza restaurant during the past 4 weeks 24% and 38% more than Caucasian Americans, and for adults 18–49, 12% and 21% more, respectively.Adults’ Social Media Use Who Ate At Any Pizza Restaurant During the Past Four Weeks, 2020Social Media*Adults 18–49Adults 50+PercentIndexPercentIndexYouTube81.9%11168.6%115Facebook73.9%11071.7%108Twitter43.9%11527.3%122Pinterest43.5%11932.8%120Instagram59.7%11428.8%129Snapchat43.4%11811.4%145Based on The Media Audit’s 2020 Aggregate Survey *logged on during past monthPlant-Based Pizza TrendsAccording to a 2020 poll from OnePoll and Eat Just, Inc., 60% of Americans are eating more plant-based foods during the pandemic and young adults are leading the trend with 39% of those 18–25 and 23% of those 26–41 having eliminated animal products from their diets.This trend has resulted in major pizza chains introducing plant-based pizza choices, such as Pizza Hut’s partnership with Beyond Meat to include the Beyond Italian Sausage Pizza and the Great Beyond Pizza on the menus of all Pizza Hut locations. Papa Murphy’s and Hormel, with its Happy Little Plants pepperoni-style topping, added the plant-based option to selected locations during September. Smaller chains, such as Fresh Brothers and Toppers Pizza, have also responded to the plant-based food trend. Plant-Based and Animal-Based Fresh Meat Comparison: YOY Sales Increase, March–June 2020DatePlant-BasedAnimal-BasedMarch 21st+454%+100%April 18th+200%+30%May 2nd+228%+54%May 30th+171%+22%June 20th+164%+27%GFI (Nielsen), July 2020More Technology For Future SuccessGhost kitchens, of which approximately 1,500 are operating in the US, became a pandemic option for many restaurants and pizzerias. ChefReady is pioneering another ghost-kitchen technology: a customizable, single facility with 10 ghost kitchen spaces.Although drone and autonomous-vehicle technologies to deliver pizza are still in development, independent pizzerias that maintain an awareness of these technologies and have a plan to use them will have an advantage when they enter the mainstream.More restaurants of the future, including pizzerias, may become modular units with smaller footprints. They will emphasize delivery, takeout, drive-thru and mobile units to serve the increasing number of consumers who prefer off-premise purchases.More Valuable InsightsThe American Customer Satisfaction Index conducted a special pandemic-period restaurant survey (4/1–9/30/20) and compared the results to its 2019–2020 survey (4/15/19–3/19/20). In the limited-service restaurants category, which include major pizza chains, the overall satisfaction index was unchanged at 78 (on a 100-point scale). Pizza Hut had the largest increase among pizza chains, or +2 points to 79, but Domino’s had the highest score, or 80.Pizza Chains’ Satisfaction Index Compared to Other Limited-Service Restaurants, 2020Major Pizza Chains2019–2020April–Sept. 2020Other Limited-Service Restaurants2019–2020April–Sept. 2020Domino’s7980Chick-fil-A8484Pizza Hut7779Panera Bread7977Papa John’s 7877Subway7976Little Caesars7675McDonalds7070American Customer Satisfaction Index, November 2020Four states (Arizona, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota) legalized recreational cannabis via the ballot box during the November 2020 election, and others are likely to do so during 2021. This could be a boon for the pizza market as it is certainly one of the favorite foods when the munchies strike. Data from The Media Audit’s Summer 2020 Survey for Denver, CO reveals the favorite pizza restaurants among three young adult demographics who are the largest to have used or bought cannabis during the past month.Young Adults in Denver, CO Who Used or Bought Cannabis During the Past Month and the Pizza Restaurants at Which They Ate During the Past Four Weeks, 2020Pizza RestaurantsAdults 18–24Adults 25–34Adults 35–44Brixx Wood Fired Pizza0.4%**Cici’s Pizza*3.1%3.9%Domino’s Pizza18.0%7.3%8.4%Donato’s Pizza2.2%2.1%3.2%Godfather’s Pizza*5.6%*Little Caesar’s Pizza2.4%2.0%1.3%Old Chicago Pizza & Taproom*0.2%*Papa John’s Pizza2.6%6.8%1.0%Papa Murphy’s Pizza*2.3%*Pizza Hut*7.8%12.2%Based on The Media Audit’s Summer 2020 Denver, CO Survey *insufficient dataSources: PMQ Magazine Website, 12/20; Nation’s Restaurant News Website, 12/20; CHD Expert Website, 12/20; QSR Magazine Website, 12/20; Business Wire Website, 12/20; CNBC Website, 12/20; The Media Audit Website, 12/20; GFI Website, 12/20; The American Customer Satisfaction Index Website, 12/20.Updated: December 2020? 2020 Media Group Online, Inc. 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