July 2021 What We Know about Congressional Primaries and Congressional ...

July 2021

What We Know about Congressional Primaries and Congressional Primary Reform

Lee Drutman

Last edited on July 01, 2021 at 12:57 p.m. EDT

Acknowledgments

Thanks Nick Troiano, Tyler Fisher, and Jack Santucci for very helpful comments. Thanks especially to Maresa Strano for her detailed editing, background research, and extremely helpful comments. Funding for this work was provided by the Unite America Institute.

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About the Author(s)

Lee Drutman is a senior fellow in the Political Reform program.

About New America

We are dedicated to renewing the promise of America by continuing the quest to realize our nation's highest ideals, honestly confronting the challenges caused by rapid technological and social change, and seizing the opportunities those changes create.

About Political Reform

The Political Reform program works towards an open, fair democratic process, with equitable opportunities for full participation, in order to restore dynamism and growth to the American economy and society.

About Electoral Reform Research Group

With growing national interest in reforming American political institutions, the Electoral Reform Research Group is organizing emerging research into how changes in electoral rules impact political participation, processes, partisanship, power, and policy outcomes.

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Contents

Executive Summary

7

Introduction

9

Why Do We Have Primaries?

11

How Should We Think about Primary Reform?

16

The Types of Congressional Primaries

17

The Theory of Reform

21

Are Primaries a Problem?

24

Premise 1: In most districts, the primary is the only election that

matters.

24

Premise 2: Partisan primary electorates are disproportionately more extreme and more hyper-partisan than the electorate as a whole. 25

Premise 3: Incumbent members of Congress fear a primary challenge,

and adjust to avoid one.

33

Summary: Are Primaries a Problem?

39

Can Primary Reform Change Who Votes, Runs, and Wins?

40

Premise 4: Changing the primary process would change who votes in

the primaries.

40

Premise 5: Changing the primary process would change the strategic

entry and positioning of candidates, generating more moderate

candidates.

41

Premise 6: Changing the primary process would change the types of

candidates who get elected, generating more moderate winners and

less polarization.

43

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Contents Cont'd

Why Hasn't the Top-Two Primary Been More Transformative?

51

Not Enough Same-Party General Elections

51

No Decision Rule is Neutral, and Either Parties or Interest Groups will

find a Way to Structure Choices No Matter What

51

Not Enough Crossover Voting in Same-Party General Elections

53

Voters Cannot Tell the Difference between Moderate and Extreme

Candidates without Distinguishing Party Labels

53

There Aren't that Many Moderate Voters; Independents are Not

Necessarily Moderates

54

Additional Original Analysis

55

Implications for Top-Four/Five Voting

59

Recommendations for Future Research

62

Move Away from Measuring "Ideology" and Toward Specific Issues and

Principles of Governance

62

Looking More at Politician Rhetoric and Messaging

63

Exploring Party, Interest Group, and Donor Coalitions in Primaries 64

Treating Asymmetry Seriously

65

More Focus on Geography

65

Looking Beyond our Borders

66

What about the Senate?

66

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