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IR 404: International Policy Task ForceHow Emerging Economies Survived the Global Financial Crisis:Prelude, Policy Responses, and Future ProspectsProf. Carol WiseSpring Semester 2016 Tuesday 5-7:50 pm, SOSB40 Office Hours: Thurs. 3:30-5:30 pm Office: VKC 328 E-mail: cwise@usc.edu Course Description & Objectives One of the more surprising features of the 2008-9 global financial crisis (GFC) was the comparative ease with which emerging market countries in parts of Africa, East Asia and Latin America rebounded. This was a radical departure from the effects of previous crises on these countries, be it the decade-long recession that the 1982 debt shocks wreaked on Africa and Latin America or the string of Asian financial crises that dramatically slowed those economies in the late 1990s. The remarkable resilience of emerging economies (EEs) in the wake of the GFC is also striking when we consider the substantial differences that exist among countries, both within and across these respective regions. Countries diverge in terms of size, endowment factors, and the domestic institutional backdrop that frames economic policymaking. Taking this diversity into account, this course explores the phenomenon of EE recovery in the aftermath of the GFC. We will focus, first, on the reform period that preceded the GFC, as the ability of these countries as a group to resist the initial financial contagion is at least in part a tribute to the substantial macroeconomic, financial sector, and trade reforms that EE governments undertook over the past two decades. Second, we will analyze the economic policies and political strategies that were employed when the GFC hit in 2008-09. Third, we will explore the performance of these EE political economies six years after the GFC and as the prospects for sustained growth have slowed and deeper reforms still await many of these countries. Grading and Assignments Grades will be assigned on the basis of class participation and preparation; an in-class final exam; and 3 6-8 page background papers to be submitted over the course of the semester. (1) Preparation and Participation in Class Discussions (10% of your grade) All students are expected to have completed the readings before each class, and to be prepared to answer questions on the material when called upon. Students are also expected to participate in ongoing weekly seminar discussions. Each student is expected to make a presentation based on the country that they have been assigned to track and write about over the course of the semester. (2) Three 10-page Background Papers (45% of your grade, or 15% each) Each of you has been assigned an Emerging Economy to concentrate on for the semester (See final page of syllabus for country assignments). On January 26 you are required to submit a short bibliography based on your assigned country consisting of a minimum of five research references. Three background papers will then be written on your assigned country along the following lines:Paper 1 - 6-8 pages (due February 2): A description of the reform period that preceded the GFC, including macroeconomic, trade, and financial reforms.Paper 2 - 6-8 pages (due March 8): An analysis of the policy responses that were employed when the GFC hit your country in 2008-09.Paper 3 - 6-8 pages (due April 12): The aftermath of the crisis and the political economic performance of your assigned country six years later. Here, you will offer reform insights and policy recommendations for your assigned country.(3) Final Policy Memorandum, 15-18 pages that weaves together the three papers listed above (15% of your grade). Due May 3, 2016 at noon. Please submit through turn-it-in on Black Board.(4) In-class Final Exam (30% of your grade). Tuesday, May 10, 4:30-6:30 pm, SOSB40.Disability Disclaimer Students requesting academic accommodations based on disability are required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester. A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP when adequate documentation is filed. Please be sure the letter is delivered to me (or to TA) as early in the semester as possible. DSP is open Monday-Friday, 8:30-5:00. The office is in Student Union 301 and their phone number is (213) 740-0776. Readings All of the assigned readings have been posted on USC Blackboard under the name and number of this course. The following book is required reading for the course and can be purchased at the USC Bookstore or on : C. Wise, L. Armijo, and S. Katada, eds., How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2015).WEEK 1:Introduction and OverviewJanuary 12: Structural Shifts in the International Political Economy (IPE)M. Guillen and E. Ontiveros, Global Turning Points (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), chapters 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9. PDF posted on Blackboard A. Hardy, The World Turned Upside Down (Singapore: World Scientific Press, 2013), chapters 1 & 2. PDF posted on Blackboard R. Sharma, Breakout Nations (New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2012), chapters 1 & 14. PDF posted on Blackboard WEEK 2:Pathways from the PeripheryJanuary 19: The Elusive Quest for GrowthAmsden, “The Wild Ones: Industrial Policies in the Developing World,” in Narcís Serra and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds., The Washington Consensus Reconsidered. PDF posted on BlackboardW. Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002), pp. 5-85. PDF posted on Blackboard R. Hausman, D. Rodrik, and A. Velasco, “Growth Diagnostics,” in Narcís Serra and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds., The Washington Consensus Reconsidered (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2008). PDF posted on Blackboard.M. Kose and E. Prasad, Emerging Markets: Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), pp. 1-66. PDF posted on BlackboardD. Rodrik, One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), pp. 1-55. PDF posted on Blackboard EMERGING ECONOMIES: THE CONCEPTUAL & EMPIRICAL TERRAINSWEEK 3: Neoclassical Assumptions & Modern Political Economy January 26: Micro versus Macro Views Assignment due in class: a short bibliography based on your assigned country consisting of a minimum of five research referencesM. Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 178-226. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Kreuger, “Government Failure in Development,” in J. Frieden, M. Pastor, and M. Tomz, eds., Modern Political Economy and Latin America (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000), pp. 10-17. PDF posted on Blackboard R. Holcombe, “Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth,” in B. Powell, ed. Making Poor Nations Rich (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2008). PDF posted on Blackboard J. Williamson, “A Short History of the Washington Consensus,” in Narcís Serra and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds., The Washington Consensus Reconsidered. PDF posted on BlackboardM. Wolf, Why Globalization Works (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004), pp. 3-76. PDF posted on BlackboardWEEK 4: Statist Approaches February 2: Theory & PracticeT.J. Pempel, “The Developmental State in a Changing World Economy,” in M. Woo-Cumings, ed. The Developmental State (Cornell University Press, 1999), pp. 137-181. PDF posted on BlackboardJ.C. Ramo, The Beijing Consensus (Washington, DC: The Foreign Policy Center, 2004). PDF posted on BlackboardP. Evans, “Predatory, Developmental, and other Apparatuses: A Comparative Political Economy Perspective on the Third World State,” Sociological Forum 4 (1989): 561-587. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Kohli, State-Directed Development (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004), pp. 1-26. PDF posted on BlackboardWEEK 5: Institutions versus GeographyFebruary 9: Nature or Nurture?D. Acemoglu and J. Robinson, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (New York, NY: Crown Business, 2012), pp. 7-123. PDF posted on BlackboardS. Ahlfeld, H. Hemmer, and A. Lorenz, “The Economic Growth Debate: Geography vs Institutions,” ZBW – Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Working Paper no. 34, 2005. PDF posted on BlackboardP. Collier, The Bottom Billion, pp. 53-98. PDF posted on BlackboardD. Rodrik, One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth, pp. 153-183. PDF posted on BlackboardTHE 2008-09 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS (GFC)WEEK 6: Emerging Economies and the GFCFebruary 16: The Great Recession---PreludeBernanke, The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013), pp. 64-97. PDF posted on BlackboardBlinder, After the Music Stopped, pp. 3-99. PDF posted on BlackboardN. Roubini and S. Mihm, Crisis Economics (London: Allen Lane, 2010), pp. 86-157. PDF posted on BlackboardFILM---“Too Big to Fail” WEEK 7: Emerging Economies and the GFCFebruary 23: Policy ResponsesC. Wise, L. Armijo, and S. Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2015), skim all. WEEK 8: Country CasesMarch 1: Mexico, Brazil & ArgentinaG. Esquivel, “Mexico’s Recovery from the Global Financial Crisis,” in Wise, Armijo, and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. A. Fishlow, Starting Over: Brazil Since 1985 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011), pp. 33-86. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Kohli, State-Directed Development, chapter on Brazil. PDF posted on BlackboardC. Wise and Maria Antonieta Lins, “Macro-prudence versus Macro-profligacy: Brazil, Argentina and the Global Financial Crisis,” in Wise, Armijo, and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. WEEK 9: Country CasesMarch 8: Indonesia, Nigeria, & South AfricaP. O. Alege, T.V Ojapinwa, and H.T Bello. "Global Shocks and Their Impact on Nigeria: Lessons from Global Financial Crisis,"?European Scientific Journal, no. 17 (2012). PDF posted on BlackboardAswicahyono, H. Hill, and D. Narjoko. “Indonesian Industrialization: A Latecomer in Adjusting to Crises,” in A. Szirmai, et al eds., Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2013), pp. 193-222. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Kohli, State-Directed Development, chapter on Nigeria. PDF posted on BlackboardM. Nowak and L. Antonio Ricci, eds. Post-Apartheid South Africa: The First Ten Years (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2005). PDF posted on BlackboardM. Beeson, “Southeast Asia’s Post-crisis Recovery: So Far, So Good,” in Wise, Armijo, and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. WEEK 10: SPRING BREAKWEEK 11: Country Cases March 22: China, India & KoreaS. Breslin, “Chinese Financial Statecraft and the Response to the Global Financial Crisis,” in Wise, Armijo and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis.J. Echeverri-Gent, “India’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis: From Quick Rebound to Protracted Slowdown? in Wise, Armijo, and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. Kohli, State-Directed Development, chapter on India. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Kohli, State-Directed Development, chapter on Korea. PDF posted on BlackboardB. Naughton, “The Political Economy of China’s Economic Transition,” in L. Brandt and T.G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 91-135. PDF posted on blackboardY. Qian, “How Reform Worked in China,” in Dani Rodrik, ed., In Search of Prosperity (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003), pp. 297-333. PDF posted on blackboardP. Shankar Jha, Crouching Dragon, Hidden Tiger: Can China and India Dominate the West? (Berkeley: Soft Skull Press, 2010), pp. 188-251. PDF posted on Blackboard.B. Stallings, “Korea’s Victory over the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09: Good Fundamentals, Strong Policy Response,” in Wise, Armijo, and Katada, eds. Unexpected Outcomes: How Emerging Economies Survived the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis. CHALLENGES FOR THE 21st CENTURY WEEK 12: Structural Adjustment Programs & Foreign AidMarch 29: 20th Century Relics?P. Collier and J. Gunning, “The IMF’s Role in Structural Adjustment,” The Economic Journal, vol. 109 (November 2001), pp. 634-651. PDF posted on BlackboardW. Easterly, White Man’s Burden (New York, NY: Penguin Books, 2007), pp. 3-59, 165-209. PDF posted on BlackboardGilbert, A. Powell, and D. Vines, “Positioning the World Bank,” The Economic Journal, vol. 109 (November 2001), pp. 598-633. PDF posted on BlackboardB. Moyo, Dead Aid: Why Aid is Not Working and How There is a Better Way for Africa (New York, NY: Farrar, Strauss, and Giroux, 2010), pp. 29-97. PDF posted on BlackboardWEEK 13: The Tenacity of Poverty and Inequality April 5: P. Bardhan, “The Global Economy and the Poor,” in D. Mookerjee, A. Banerjee, and R. Benabou, eds., Understanding Poverty (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2006), pp. 99-109. PDF posted on BlackboardA. Case, “The Primacy of Education,” in D. Mookerjee, A. Banerjee, and R. Benabou, eds., Understanding Poverty, pp. 269-284. PDF posted on BlackboardE. Duflo and A. Banerjee, Poor Economics (New York: Public Affairs, 2011), pp. 235-273. PDF posted on BlackboardM. Ravallion, “Transfers and Safety Nets in Poor Countries,” in D. Mookerjee, A. Banerjee, and R. Benabou, eds., Understanding Poverty, pp. 203-229. PDF posted on BlackboardWEEK 14: (student input on designated topic) April 12:WEEK 15: (student input on designated topic)April 19:WEEK 16: Class DinnerApril 26: El Cholo RestaurantCountry AssignmentsARGENTINABRAZILCHILECHINACZECH REPUBLICGREECEHUNGARYINDIAINDONESIAIRELANDKOREAMEXICONIGERIAPERUPOLANDSOUTH AFRICASPAINTURKEYVIETNAM ................
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