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Comparison of Student Loan Debt Slavery to Civil War Slavery:

Percentages of enslaved citizens, types of slavery and oppressions, and expected results

Author: Gordon Wayne Watts ( / ) – Friday, 01 July 2011

This analysis of the relevant data asks this question:

“Which form of slavery is more prevalent in the population, and what end result can be reasonably expected based on the data?” Comments of analysis (set off by: “Gordon's Comments:”) appear below each data entry to show relevance to the question under review.

SUMMARY: Normally, such a comparison would be insulting to U.S. African-American citizens, but in light of new figures of a dramatic rise in suicides (of students of all colours, ages, & genders) by stress resultant from Student Loan Defaults, this comparison is valid: Their blood is worth something.

[*] “Crushing debt” (Chicago Sun-Times, BY DAVE NEWBART) September 24, 2007 "Jan Yoder was preparing for her son's funeral when the phone rang. It was another student loan collector wanting to know when her son would pay up…It was those calls and the burden of crushing debt, she says, that led her depressed son to take the drastic action of killing himself late last month. ''When it gets to the point where people are fleeing the country, going off the grid or taking their own lives, you know something has gone horribly wrong,'' said Alan Collinge, founder of Student Loan Justice, which is pushing to change student lending laws.” (Higher Ed NewsWeekly: from the Illinois Board of Higher Education, page 57) ~ (Newsalert) See also:

[*] “I’m Thinking of Suicide Because of My Student Loans. – John” (, undated news story) “Dear Steve, My student loans are almost $42,000 dollars. I pay almost $260 dollars per month and all but $12 dollars is interest and the principal continues to go higher…I frequently think about suicide; thinking about my son is the only thing that has so far kept me from committing suicide. John” See also, note: "36" below regarding the Bible standards on interest fees charges for loans.

[*] "A Pastor's Student Loan Debt" (NPR, by Libby Lewis) July 14, 2007 “Dan Lozer's tiny paycheck means he'll be paying off those loans until 2029...Lozer said there was a time when he thought about suicide.”

[*] “Company’s march toward student loan monopoly scary” (The News Tribune, By ALAN COLLINGE) 06/19/07 “In Boston; a medical student can’t get licensed because he can’t pay $52,000 on what began as a $3,000 debt. A suicide in Oregon. A suicide in Maryland. People who have fled the country due to the explosion of their student loan debt. The list goes on and on.” See also:

See: or:

or even:



for more details.

DATA:

After the American Revolution, the Southern slave population exploded, reaching about 1.1 million in 1810 and over 3.9 million in 1860. Source:

Total 1860 Population

|Total Free Population |27,489,561 |

|Total Slave Population |3,953,760 |

|Grand Total |31,443,321 |



|1860 |31,443,000 |



Gordon's Comments: Civil War Home's figures seem most accurate and are verified by and

The figures show that African American slaves constituted 12.57% of the total population immediately before the Civil War –in other words, when 12.5% of the population was oppressed with slavery, this was the 'tipping point' of the crisis. If and when a similar percentage of oppressed American citizens (of any demography) is oppressed, we might expect a similar end result as was seen in the Civil War; economic oppression has been shown to have very strong negative results, no matte the context or demography under oppression.

U.S. & World Population Clocks

U.S. 311,666,453

World 6,946,113,685

07:55 UTC (EST+5) Jul 01, 2011 Source:

U.S. Population, 2011: 310 Million and Growing

By Robert Schlesinger

Posted: December 30, 2010

Source:

Gordon's Comments: The official U.S. Census website seems not only the most accurate (as verified by similar figures from ), but also (and as more importantly) an official source. We then take [accept] the U.S. Population to be 311,666,453, as stated.

Nearly 12 percent of borrowers who began repayment in fiscal 2007 defaulted within three years – up from 9.2 percent for 2006. But at for-profit colleges, the rate was 21.2 percent within three years, The Associated Press calculated from the government's data. That was up from 18.8 percent for fiscal 2006...However, the new data show more than 300 colleges – more than 85 percent of them for-profit schools – had three-year default rates higher than 30 percent. Those schools will have to improve when the rules kick in or risk losing federal aid...The figures do not include private student loans, just those from the government.

Source:

Gordon's Comments: I'm just looking for total numbers of loans (or total numbers of students) and then the total number of defaulted (and also distressed) loans –in order to get a simple percentage. The Huffington Post's figures are hard to pin down to a specific total, but they may possibly be useful in gauging other figures –to make sure that any other sources are at least "in the ballpark" and close enough to be accepted as accurate. Since the Huffington Post's figures don't include private loans, then the genuine numbers are going to be higher.

Borrowers in the 2005 cohort faced a range of circumstances and options as they started repaying their loans, and continued to do so as they moved along the path of trying to meet their repayment obligations. The study looks at whether these borrowers became delinquent at some point during that period or availed themselves of various options to postpone or delay repayment during their first five years in repayment...The defaulters. About 15 percent of borrowers not only became delinquent, but also had defaulted on their loan(s) at some point during the first five years of their repayment term. In total, 41 percent of the borrowers faced the negative consequences of delinquency or default. It is important to recognize that for every borrower who defaults there are at least two others who were also delinquent on their student loans, but successfully avoided default. These data illustrate that many more borrowers are having difficulty repaying their loans in a timely manner than is generally recognized when the focus is on default rates alone. These patterns are both a cause for concern and an opportunity for improvement.

Source:

Gordon's Comments: Here, the (Institute for Higher Education Policy) website makes more specific claims.

First, let's look at the Huffington Post's stat: "Nearly 12 percent of borrowers who began repayment in fiscal 2007 defaulted within three years," and now let's look a comparable IHEP stat: "About 15 percent of borrowers [in the 2005 'cohort' -a group with similar demographics under study] not only became delinquent, but also had defaulted on their loan(s) at some point during the first five years of their repayment term." Since the IHEP studied students for 5 years, not 3 –and also included delinquency, it is not surprising that their 15% figure is larger than the Huffington Post's 12% figure, and also (most significantly), the two figures are similar enough to verify one another. Therefore, when IHEP states that the total percentage of borrowers facing "delinquency or default" was 41%, we have a source that we can trust –and, relevant to our question, we have an 'overall' figure we can trust for future analysis and calculations.

A whopping 46.3 percent of federal loans distributed to students at for-profit colleges in 2008 would go into default, according to new Education Department data...This figure is significantly larger than the rate of default on student loans overall, which in 2008 amounted to 15.8 percent.

Sources:

citing:

and:

and:

Gordon's Comments: The Huffington Post's 15.8% figure for 'overall' 2008 defaults is similar to the previous two 'default' figures, and their projection of 46.3% is also similar to the 41% figure from IHEP for "delinquency or default" loans –and this seems reasonable, since many of the 'delinquency' loans in the IHEP figure might reasonably be expected to eventually default, thus pushing the figure up. -- Thus, let's take 46.3% to be the figure of total Student Loans we expect to eventually default.

Student Loans are the New Indentured Servitude

By Mike Konczal

Oct 12 2009, 12:35 PM ET

Source:

Gordon's Comments: This is vague and offers no solid data, but this widely-accepted 'new reality' ("Student Loans are the New Indentured Servitude") does seem to verify specific data from other sources.

More Than 1 in 3 Federal Student Loan Borrowers Struggling to Make Payments

Source:

Gordon's Comments: This 33.3% figure seems to support figures cited above.

Student Loan Debt Surpasses Credit Card Debt-What to Do?

When the numbers shake out, that’s nearly $830 billion of student loan debt compared to the more than $825 billion of credit card debt. Unlike credit card debt, people cannot have federally-guaranteed student loans erased by declaring bankruptcy. And the government can garnish Social Security payments and tax refunds if a person defaults on student loan payments...Students take out loans to better themselves, to create a future in an industry or business sector and to earn a living so that they can raise a family and become a productive part of society. And as tuition rates rise, more students and families are borrowing to the point of no return...Higher education has always been considered as a "good debt," because it presumably leads to a well- paying career. But for some, it’s becoming just the opposite.



Gordon's Comments: This tidbit of information (Student Loan Debt Surpasses Credit) seems to support the hypothesis or theory that Student Loan debt is a 'real' problem with a genuinely high default rate due to unreasonable and/or unconstitutional terms and conditions –in spite of any 'official' figures to the contrary.

It is important to note that while these two types of debt weigh roughly equally upon the citizenry, media coverage of credit cards exceeds coverage of student loans by a factor of approximately 15-to-1 based on unscientific news surveys conducted since 2007. Source:

Gordon's Comments: This disparity in news coverage between 'credit card' debt and 'Student Loan' debt might explain, in part, why the Student Loan crisis has been allowed to proceed unchecked.

Government Cashes In On Defaulted Student Loans

Defaulting on student loans can be a nightmare for borrowers but, according to the Wall Street Journal, the practice is a boon to the national bank account. Every time a student defaults on a loan, the government can earn thousands of dollars more in interest than if the loan had been paid in earnest over time -- and one expert says this gives the government a "perverted incentive" to watch as loans default. Mark Kantrowitz, the publisher of , provided the Journal with an example of how the government profits from defaults: According to Kantrowitz, the government stands to earn $2,010.44 more in interest from a $10,000 loan that defaulted than if it had been paid in full over a 20-year term, and $6,522.00 more than if it had been paid back in 10 years...Defaulting on student loans carries severe consequences for borrowers, including ineligibility for future federal aid. The loans are are almost never discharged, even in the event of a borrower's death.

Source:

Gordon's Comments: This conflict of interest here that the U.S. Government has for student loans to default might explain, in part, why the government has NOT tried harder to put a stop to this oppression: Their conflict of interest, here, is a financial motive for the student to fail.

Government Sees High Returns On Defaulted Student Loans

According to White House budget figures for fiscal 2011 ending in September, the federal government expects gross recovery of between $1.10 and $1.22 for every dollar of defaulted student loans...While students may default on their loans, it is nearly impossible to discharge student loan debt, even in bankruptcy. The government can garnish a borrower's wages, withhold tax returns and siphon off Social Security and disability payments in order to recover the funds. Collection costs stretch out the defaulted loan's term, with those payments taking precedence over principal reduction. That, in turn, allows the government to tack on extra interest.

Source:

Gordon's Comments: There is sometimes an 85% return-rate cited regarding Student Loans ("After paying the companies that actually collect the loans and other costs, the U.S. Department of Education expects to recover 85% of defaulted federal loan dollars based on current value," from the same article), in which the Government is said to get 85% or so of defaulted loans paid back, through such things as garnishing one's paycheck, social security check, etc., but this does not account for interest and fees, which appear to drive the figures up. What is not clear is whether or not this pushes the total principle up enough to make up for the fees that the collection agencies get, so that the government gets more than 100% of the original loan. That is, 122% is gross return, but it is not clear if the net return is more than 100%. However, I suspect it is, since this may refer to 85% of an "inflated" principal payment, one that grew larger due to capitolised interest, thus making it over 100% of the original loan. The prior source ("Government Cashes In On Defaulted Student Loans," Huffington Post) seems to support this analysis.

Few students can afford to pay for college without some form of education financing. Two-thirds (65.6%) of 4-year undergraduate students graduated with a Bachelor's degree and some debt in 2007-08, and the average student loan debt among graduating seniors was $23,186 (excluding PLUS Loans but including Stafford, Perkins, state, college and private loans). Among graduating 4-year undergraduate students who applied for federal student aid, 86.3% borrowed to pay for their education and the average cumulative debt was $24,651. Source:

Gordon's Comments: This is important because once we know how many students there are, we can then directly calculate the number of students who took out loans. While the 86.3% refers only to 4-year Undergrad students, probably about the same percentage (or even more) of vocational/technical students must borrow, since there is typically less scholarship monies for vocational schools. So, let's be conservative and take 90% as the total number of students who must take out loans to go to institutions of Higher Education.

This table from the NCES (National Center for Education Statistics) gives the number of first-time freshmen enrolling in fall 2004 as 2,630,000. This includes both 2-year and 4-year colleges. 2004 is the most recent year for which these statistics are available from the NCES.

NCES: Digest of Education Statistics Tables and Figures

Sources:



citing:

Gordon's Comments: This figure is important because it is a benchmark estimate of how many 'total' students enter college each year –inclusive of both 2-year (vocational/technical) and 4-year ('regular' bachelor degree) colleges & universities.

Table 28. Actual and alternative projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees, by sex of recipient: 1993–94 through 2018–19 [page 74]

Actual (Total: Men and Women) 2006–07...1,524,092

Source:

Gordon's Comments: This figure is only for 4-year bachelor degree colleges, but it can be used to make sure the 'total' figure from above is reasonable. Let's see here: 1,524,092 is the actual number of bachelor's degree students who were in college in the 2006-07 school year, and this is a little bit less than the 'total' 2004 figure of 2,630,000 given by the Dept of Education, above. Thus, these figures seem to agree with one another and seem reasonable.

Data from The Institute for College Access and Success shows that the number of students who graduate with at least $40,000 in student loans increased nine-fold between 1996 and 2008.

Sally Raskoff at Everyday Sociology offers some explanations for the data: (1) College has been getting more expensive; among other reasons, states cut education budgets. (2) For-profit colleges have also become a larger proportion of all colleges and students in these colleges are more likely to take out loans. (3) Given a bad economy, students are less likely to have jobs while in school. Other explanations? Stories?

Source:

Gordon's Comments: This data shows a historic trend towards disaster, and it thus becomes useful in projections: We are in deep, deep dooky. (Note: While this is a little humour here with the colourful 'deep dooky' language, it is meant more to help remember a specific and important fact: Studies show that when a person becomes emotional –as you might become when you laugh out loud about the 'deep dooky' comment, he/she generally can retain long-term memory of items more easily. Other emotions thought to evoke this phenomenon, besides humour, are love, fear, and anger. So, this colourful language stays –in this official report: We are, economically-speaking, in deep dooky.-Editor

According to the National Center for Educational Statistics, 18.2 million students enrolled in college in 2007. Overall, around 39% of 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college that year, and an additional 447,000 students were attending non-degree institutions of higher learning.

Sources:

citing:

Gordon's Comments: This shows total numbers of Higher Ed (college/university) students enrolled in a recent given school year, 2007 in this case: 18.2 Million college students and 0.447 Million "non-degree" institutions of higher ed total 18.647 Million in sum for 2007. Analysis: If there were 2,630,000 first-time freshmen enrolling in fall 2004 ( figures) and 18,647,000 total students enrolled, that means that 1st-time freshmen constituted about 14.1%, or about 1-in-7 of all students. This is reasonable because, besides these freshmen, you have sophomores, juniors, seniors, masters, and doctoral students –as well as both vocational and non-degree-institution students. THEREFORE, all figures cited above seem to agree with one another, and thus they seem reasonable when looked at from any angle.

RESULTS:

Gordon's FINAL Comments: Now, let's analyse these figures & see what (truth) we find...

The U.S. Population was estimated to be 311,666,453 at any given time in the near past, present, or future.

At any given time (in the same era: the near past, present, or future –thus the figures are comparable), there are about 18,647,000 total students enrolled in institutions of Higher Education.

We estimate that about 90% of these students must take out loans to proceed with their education.

The total number of students with student loans (about 90% of the total students enrolled at any given time) is about 16,782,300.

Of the approximately 16,782,300 students with student loans, about some will eventually default, and we rely on earlier figures to estimate.

Although a whopping 46.3 percent of federal loans distributed to students at for-profit colleges in 2008 are expected to eventually go into default, let's be conservative and remember that, when considering total figures, only about 41% of the borrowers faced the negative consequences of delinquency or default, and this is the 'relevant' figure since, for every borrower who defaults, there are at least two others who were also delinquent on their student loans, but successfully avoided default.

Of the approximately 16,782,300 students with student loans, we can conservatively expect about 41% to default, and this is about 6,880,743 students total.

The total number of students in America at any given time who will eventually go into default (6,880,743) represent only about 2.21% of the total U.S. Population (311,666,453), not near as many as the percentage of African American slaves (12.57%) in the total U.S. Population right before the American Civil War.

CONCLUSIONS:

Therefore, since the percentage of oppressed students (2.21% of total population –or 1-in-45 -a conservative estimate: the actual number is probably somewhat higher) in debt slavery (or indentured servitude) is currently far less than that of the African American slaves during the Civil War era (12.57% –or 1-in-8 -of total contemporary Civil War era U.S. population), we can reasonably conclude that, absent massive news media pressure –or a miracle, we can not expect any change of the status quo whereby the banks and lenders cease and desist profiting off of students simply trying to better themselves and have a chance to get a job –students who have little choice but to go to college and pursue a higher education. Also, since African American slaves were treated worse, even than college students in default, then, we can not expect as much societal pressure to enact change on behalf of oppressed students. But, data from The Institute for College Access and Success shows that the number of students who graduate with at least $40,000 in student loans increased nine-fold between 1996 and 2008, and this trend directly impacts upon suicide rates among distressed students: As the suicide rate (and other social injury & economy woes) directly attributable to distress from Student Loans going into default continues to rise (as we might expect from these "nine-fold increase" trends –and worsening economy), we might also expect the 2.21% figure for distressed "Student Loan" borrowers as a percentage of total U.S. Population to increase to 5% (1-in-20) in the near future. Furthermore, the 5% projected figure here only refers to distressed Student Loan borrowers, and does not include any other economically or socially oppressed class. The true numbers of oppressed Americans, when calculating totals from all social strata is easily 15% at present –the same percentage of oppressed African American slaves –and thus is it not untenable to expect social unrest and/or violence and/or an uptick in suicide rates and stress-related health problems in the near future. This projected social and financial unrest would reasonably (and hopefully) be expected to place more pressure to enact positive change on behalf of oppressed students and other oppressed classes of American citizens. – Calling it what it is: After at least partly eradicating racial oppression, we have now found a new class of slaves: economic slavery/oppression.

(personal notes: private email)

Subject: Interesting comparison between % of slaves & % of 'debt' slaves. Hmm...

 

Alan:

 

You've heard of 'Godwin's Law' (aka 'Godwin's Rule'), which states that as an online argument grows longer and more heated, it becomes increasingly likely that somebody will bring up Adolf Hitler or the Nazis. When such an event occurs, the person guilty of invoking Godwin's Law then *supposedly* forfeits the argument.

 

However, what I'm going to try and invent here is 'The Gordon Rule' (no, not the one which requires students to write 3000 words in order to receive liberal studies credit, but rather), a slavery analogue to the Godwin's Law, except in this case, I hope to win the argument.

 

I hypothesise that the percentage of slave-debt indentured servitude students viz-a-viz the total student population is approaching (or maybe has surpassed?) the percentage of African American slaves viz-a-viz the total population of that era... and, I think that we won't have a Student Loan Default 'revolution' until the total percentage of 'debt slaves' equal pretty close to the same percentage of African American slaves -at which time we had the 'American' revolution.

 

So, I'm compiling data --still not fully analysed yet, but here's the raw data --I've now got enough raw data now to actually study. -- Here's a copy for you, should you find it useful. -- See the attached -- or inline text below:

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