Visitor Demand Forecast (July 2020 Update)
Visitor Demand Forecast (July 2020 Update)
Summary
Our April / May COVID Economic Impact Forecasts were based on assumptions on traveller behaviour, border & travel restrictions and economic impacts
Given new developments, we are revising our core assumptions and scenarios
Scenario Virus Contained
Assumptions Travel resumes in June
Recover to 2019 levels by... 2022
Tourism Impact
-35%
Virus Not Contained
Uneven travel resumption
2024
-59%
April / May
July
1. September Restart
2. Borders closed to 2021 (upper bound) 3. Borders closed to 2021 (lower bound)
Borders re-open at end of August/start of September Borders closed to 2021
Borders closed to 2021
2
2023 2023 2024
-54% -43% -61%
Three areas of uncertainty driving our updated forecast of demand
Health Restrictions
Economic conditions
Restrictions on international and domestic mobility/travel
Gatherings, including leisure and business group activities
Health insurance coverage
Economic lock down implemented worldwide as initial
control measure
Impact on GDP, employment, government spending, trade
Consumer Sentiment
High unemployment
Uncertainties on near future income prospects
Compromised disposable income
3
Other areas of uncertainty
Travel Conditions (key driver of our updated
scenarios) Border Restrictions
Travel Bubbles/airbridges
Travel insurance
Assumed to not be a constraint on travel
Resident Sentiment
Uneven willingness of communities to welcome visitors
from different areas
State of the industry (i.e. Supply)
Open/closed businesses
Reduced capacity to host visitors
Local business health and safety guidelines
Labour conditions
4
Safety concerns impeding travel demand
"I feel safe to travel now"
Only 7% of Canadians feel that it is safe to travel now According a Leger poll, 51% of Canadians find it stressful to leave the house to be in public Availability of a vaccine or treatment against COVID-19 is the top condition for travel safety in Canada
5
BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PEI NF Canada
6%
5% 7%
6% 4%
7%
10% 11%
9% 9%
11%
Which of the following conditions would make you feel most confident that it's safe to travel again?
Source: Destination Canada, Global Tourism Watch Covid-19, June 2020 wave (COV8)
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