Automotive Industry Outlook - Center for Automotive Research
Automotive Industry
Outlook:
Managing Volatility and Leveraging Opportunities in a Dynamic Market Environment
February 2019
Mike Wall Executive Director, Automotive Analysis +1 248 728 8400 Direct +1 616 446 6885 Mobile Mike.Wall@
? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2
Big Picture: Global Automotive Outlook
Implications for the Global Automotive Industry
Countersynchronization of auto sales cycles
across world regions continues with emerging markets and
developed markets on opposite waves; wave amplitude likely to
dissipate in time
Risk of broad retreat from globalization
Trump, Mexico, China Brexit, Eurozone
? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Increased risk of new disruptive
business models
"breaking the forecast"
Risk of longer-term planning volatilities
uncertainties hurt long-term planning
3
World Economic Growth
Global Economic Growth has Peaked and is Vulnerable; Trade Tensions Weigh on Outlook
10.0
2016 2017
8.0
Annual Real GDP Growth (in percent)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
World
United
States
Source: IHS Markit Data Insight
? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
2018 Japan
2019 2020
World Average 2019 = 2.9%
2021-2026
Eurozone Brazil Russia
India
China
Annual light vehicle sales (millions)
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
4
Global Light Vehicle Sales
Volatility Impacts the Near-Term Outlook; Mobility Dynamics Drive Slower Growth Long Term
Annual growth (%)
120
Growth rate peaks -
5.0%
downhill from here
110
110
4.0%
Average growth 3.6%
100
92 94 94 95 97
3.0%
90 2.0%
80
1.0% 70
60
0.0%
50
-1.0%
Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts
? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Annual Light Vehicle Sale (in millions)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
5
The Changing Automotive World
Emerging Markets Outlook is Key to Growth; Limited Potential in Mature Markets
50
Mature Markets
China
Emerging Markets
45
40
35
30
25
20
Market Growth
15
2012-'15 2015-'18 2018-'26
Mature 13%
3%
-3%
10
China 31%
11%
26%
5
Emerging -10%
7%
45%
0
Note: Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
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