Friend or Foe: Chinese Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa - DTIC

Friend or Foe: Chinese Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

A Monograph by

Major Tom Goodall British Army

School of Advanced Military Studies US Army Command and General Staff College

Fort Leavenworth, KS 2019

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

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JUNE 18-MAY 19

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Friend or Foe: Chinese Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

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6. AUTHOR(S)

Major Tom Goodall

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U.S. Army Command and General Staff College ATTN: ATZL-SWD-GD Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2301

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Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited

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14. ABSTRACT

The rise of China over the last few decades has been well documented in media outlets around the world, with most western companies suggesting it is a cause for concern. The US Department of Defense names China as a potential adversary alongside Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Yet most controversy over China relates to its investment in Africa, and further afield. As the Chinese economy appears to strengthen and its GDP continues to increase, it provides an attractive opportunity for bilateral agreements for many developing countries in SubSaharan Africa. The highest number of deployed British Army personnel are in Africa, on a variety of peacekeeping missions, training exercises, and host nation support activities. As the UK strives to improve and maintain its international reputation among the developing continent, whilst assisting countries in defeating non-state terror groups, as well as stemming potential migration into Europe, it must be wary of China operating in the same environment. Can both countries co-exist, or is there a potential for confrontation? By examining the paradigms of both the UK and China, this papers endeavors to determine if there will be a new contest in Africa.

Open source evidence will be used to determine the Chinese and British strategies, and how the effects are felt in Africa by the local population and in the wider international community. This paper argues that the paradigm for the United Kingdom National Security Strategy and subsequent British Army strategy remains relevant for the changing context and regional challenges posed by ongoing Chinese influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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China, Africa, UK Defence, Soft-Power.

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a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE

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45

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Major Tom Goodall

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Monograph Approval Page

Name of Candidate: Monograph Title:

Major Tom Goodall Friend or Foe: Chinese Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Approved by:

__________________________________, Monograph Director Alice A. Butler-Smith, PhD

__________________________________, Seminar Leader Heiko Diehl, COL

___________________________________, Director, School of Advanced Military Studies Kirk C. Dorr, COL

Accepted this 23rd day of May 2019 by:

___________________________________, Director, Graduate Degree Programs Robert F. Baumann, PhD

The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the student author and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Army Command and General Staff College or any other government agency. (References to this study should include the foregoing statement.)

Fair Use determination or copyright permission has been obtained for the use of pictures, maps, graphics, and any other works incorporated into the manuscript. This author may be protected by more restrictions in their home countries, in which case further publication or sale of copyrighted images is not permissible.

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Abstract

Friend or Foe: Chinese Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Major Tom Goodall, British Army, 45 pages. The rise of China over the last few decades has been well documented in media outlets around the world, with most Western companies suggesting it is a cause for concern. The US Department of Defense names China as a potential adversary alongside Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Yet most controversy over China relates to its investment in Africa, and further afield. As the Chinese economy appears to strengthen and its GDP continues to increase, it provides an attractive opportunity for bilateral agreements for many developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The highest number of deployed British Army personnel are in Africa, on a variety of peacekeeping missions, training exercises, and host nation support activities. As the UK strives to improve and maintain its international reputation among the developing continent, whilst assisting countries in defeating non-state terror groups, as well as stemming potential migration into Europe, it must be wary of China operating in the same environment. Can both countries coexist, or is there a potential for confrontation? By examining the paradigms of both the UK and China, this papers endeavors to determine if there will be a new contest in Africa. Open source evidence will be used to determine the Chinese and British strategies, and how the effects are felt in Africa by the local population and in the wider international community. This paper argues that the paradigm for the United Kingdom National Security Strategy and subsequent British Army strategy remains relevant for the changing context and regional challenges posed by ongoing Chinese influence in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Contents

Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................iii Acronyms .........................................................................................................................................v Illustrations ...................................................................................................................................... vi Tables ..............................................................................................................................................vi Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 The British Paradigm, and International Perspective ...................................................................... 3 The Chinese Paradigm: Unprecedented Rise or Return to Power? ............................................... 14 The African Assessment................................................................................................................ 25 Conclusion..................................................................................................................................... 31 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................. 34

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