Chapter 2 - Big Game - Colorado



FILING - 5/24/2017

Basis and Purpose

Chapter W-2 - Big Game

Basis and Purpose:

These regulations amend Chapter W-2 - Big Game - of the Parks and Wildlife Commission regulations and are necessary to properly manage big game populations in Colorado. They establish limited license numbers for deer, elk, pronghorn, moose, and black bear during seasons which were adopted in January 2017; and include licenses for archery, muzzle-loading, early, regular, plains, late rifle and private land only seasons with respect to each species.  Limited license numbers are set for specific game management units or groups of units.  Limited license numbers are established to maintain big game herds at or near long-term population objectives, and, in the case of antlered deer, antlered elk, buck pronghorn and moose they are also set to achieve sex ratio objectives.  The herd objectives are intended to maintain healthy populations, provide a diversity of hunting opportunities for residents and nonresidents, allow and maintain public recreational opportunity, minimize or control local game damage situations on private land and provide opportunity for landowners to cooperatively manage wildlife with the Division through the Ranching for Wildlife program.  These resulting limited license numbers take into account harvest estimates and hunter success rates, wildlife counts and surveys, as well as impacts of winter weather and predation on big game populations.  As is the case each year, this effort represents the culmination of numerous hours of work by various Division employees involved in the accumulation and analysis of data and a great deal of time spent with interested publics explaining both the recommendations and the rationale behind them.

Deer

Almost all deer hunting in Colorado is by limited license. In 2016, 179,000 hunters applied for 88,900 deer licenses. For 2017, CPW is recommending 92,200 deer licenses, an increase of 3,300 licenses (+4%).

The statewide total rifle buck license recommendation is 50,400, up from 48,100 (+2,300, +5%). Buck license recommendations were increased in herds that were above DAU plan sex ratio objectives. Likewise, increases in most western slope DAUs are a continuation of restoring buck licenses that were reduced after the winter of 2007-2008.

Antlerless license increases are recommended in herds that are performing well and are at or above population objective ranges. Alternatively, these recommendations keep regular season doe licenses at the minimum of 10 licenses per hunt code for all deer DAUs west of I-25 that are below population objective. In these below objective herds, the majority of doe licenses are private-land-only licenses to address game damage. Private-land-only licenses and licenses with special restriction to address deer conflicts near towns make up 70% of the doe licenses in below objective herds.

The statewide post-hunt 2016 deer population estimate is 419,000, down from 436,000 in 2015. Population estimates are still far below the sum of statewide population objective ranges of 501,000 - 557,000 for all 55 deer herds combined. In 2016, 24 of 55 (44%) deer DAUs are greater than 10% below their population objective ranges. A number of these population objective ranges are from older herd management plans, based on outdated population models that often overestimated deer numbers, and objectives from plans that were written at a time when population sizes were larger. Higher population objectives also reflect CPW’s desire to stabilize, sustain, and increase deer herds that have experienced declines and are below population objective.

Diverse habitat types and environmental conditions around the state create considerable geographic variability in population performance. Many deer herds are performing well, and population sizes and license numbers are increasing. Despite these increases, there’s still reason for concern because of declines in many of the large westernmost herds in Colorado.

CPW intensively monitors annual adult doe survival and winter fawn survival in five mule deer herds. We also monitor buck survival in two of these herds. These herds were selected to ecologically and geographically represent mule deer west of I-25. CPW annually monitors over 900 radio-collared mule deer in the five intensive monitoring areas. Survival rates from these herds are used in deer population models for the rest of the herds west of I-25. Survival rates for this past winter range from very high in D-9 (Middle Park) to very low in the Gunnison Basin because of the severe winter conditions there. Additionally, the fawn survival in D-2 (Bears Ears) is below average as a result of difficult winter conditions in that part of the state.

CPW conducts post-hunt herd inventories with helicopters to estimate the sex ratios of males/100 females and the age ratios of young/100 females. In addition to survival rates, these ratios are needed to estimate population size using population models.

The average of DAU plan sex ratio objectives for deer herds statewide is 30 bucks/100 does. During the post-hunt herd inventories in 2016, CPW staff classified 76,000 deer and observed an average sex ratio of 35 bucks/100 does, which is down towards objective from the peak of 38 bucks/100 does in 2015. Buck/doe ratios were reduced by a combination of 2016 buck license increases and increased mortality last winter. Reproduction and fawn survival to December was down this year compared with previous years, as the statewide average observed age ratio from helicopter inventory was 54 fawns/100 does compared with 56 fawns/100 does in 2015.

Many western slope herds have not recovered yet from the severe winter of 2007-2008. Mild winters resulted in high over-winter fawn survival in 2013 and 2014, which had the combined effect of increasing populations and buck/doe ratios in many herds. Severe winter weather on the western slope in December and January of 2015-2016 and again in January of 2016 resulted in lower over-winter fawn survival, which stalled deer population recoveries in some herds. Fortunately, February was very mild both winters reducing the potential for more widespread winter mortality on the western slope.

Based on these high observed post-hunt sex ratios and a high hunter success rate of 51% for all rifle seasons in 2016, overall deer hunting continues to be good. Buck/doe ratios have shown a strong response to our management actions, and Colorado remains a premier destination for deer hunters. Barring a difficult winter, high buck/doe ratios should continue to translate into increased hunter opportunity in the future.

Elk

In 2016, 200,000 hunters applied for Colorado limited elk licenses. All rifle antlerless, muzzleloader, first, fourth, and late season elk licenses are limited. Also, archery licenses in 22% of GMUs and second and third rifle bull seasons in 51% of GMUs are only hunted with limited licenses.

CPW is recommending 133,200 limited licenses, down from the 136,700 issued in 2016 (-3,500, -3%). The bulk of these reductions are in the Southwest Region (-3,100, -10%). Licenses reductions are the result of a combination of herds achieving population objectives through antlerless harvest and low calf/cow ratios naturally reducing population growth.

The statewide elk population is estimated at 278,000 post-hunt 2016, up from 276,000 in 2015. The sum of Colorado’s post-hunt population objective ranges for elk statewide is 224,000-273,000 for all 46 elk herds combined. We continue to prioritize the revision and implementation of herd management plans, because the sum of statewide objective ranges is partially based on historic herd management plans. The older plans were written with outdated population models that underestimated elk numbers; as we update DAU plans in the next few years, we expect population objectives to change. Because season and license setting is designed to use antlerless harvest to bring elk populations to herd objectives, further reductions in antlerless licenses are anticipated in the future as more elk populations reach objectives.

As we’ve intentionally reduced elk populations to achieve population objectives, hunters and outfitters increasingly have expressed concern that elk populations are becoming too low in some herds, despite the fact that 14 of 46 (30%) of the elk herds are greater than 10% above their current population objective ranges. Based on feedback from the public, CPW gives serious consideration to raising population objectives in herds as herd management plans are revised. These requests are balanced with landowners’ concerns about game damage and with information from public land management agencies about habitat condition and preferences identified by local communities and sportsmen. Past experiences are informing the upper and lower social thresholds for elk population size in many herds, which benefits us greatly in herd management planning efforts.

The current average post-hunt sex ratio objective range for elk herds statewide is 21-26 bulls/100 cows. In 2016, during the post-hunt herd inventories, CPW staff used helicopter surveys to classify 92,000 elk and observed a statewide average sex ratio of 21 bulls/100 cows, compared to 23 bulls/100 cows in 2015.

During these surveys over the past decade CPW has observed declining calf/cow ratios in the southern half of the state in both the Southwest and Southeast Regions. Some herds have three-year average calf ratios below 30 calves/100 cows. The three-year average is a concerning 30 calves/100 cows in Southeast Region and 32 calves/100 cows in the Southwest Region, compared to 46 calves/100 cows in the Northwest and Northeast Regions. Northern Colorado historically has had higher calf ratios by about 10 calves/100 cows. Also of concern is the drop in calf ratios in the Northwest and Northeast Regions in 2016. Elk research and continued management changes appear necessary since calf production remains so low in the southern half of the state. Low calf ratios reduce the amount of cow elk harvest necessary to reduce population sizes or maintain elk numbers at a given population size.

The 2017 reductions in antlerless licenses are consistent with licensing trends of the last 12 years because many herds are near the desired population size. Having a combination of units that are limited in all seasons and units with both limited and over-the-counter hunting seasons allows us to offer a very wide range of hunting opportunities on the nation’s largest elk population.

Pronghorn

The majority of pronghorn licenses are limited, with the notable exception of over-the-counter archery licenses available in 70% of GMUs. The number of limited licenses recommended for 2017 is 24,900, up from 22,900 in 2016 (+2,000, +9%). The majority of this increase is in the Southeast Region where the license recommendation is 17,200, up from 15,400 in 2016 (+1,800, +12%).

The estimated statewide post-hunt pronghorn population is 81,100 in 2016, up from 79,400 in 2015. This is a record pronghorn population estimate for Colorado. The sum of statewide population objective ranges for hunted pronghorn herds is 66,000-74,000 combined. Eleven of 29 (38%) pronghorn DAUs are greater than 10% above the DAU plan population objective range. Approximately half of the states pronghorn reside in the Southeast Region, where the limited license increases are largest. The license increases in the Southeast Region demonstrates responsiveness in using limited licenses to manage herds to population objective. This recommendation increases licenses as much as is practical without negatively affecting success rates or exceeding landowner tolerance for pronghorn hunters.

During pre-hunt herd surveys in 2016, conducted with helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft, CPW staff classified 22,300 pronghorn. The average observed pre-hunt ratio was 54 bucks/100 does, up from 48 bucks/100 does in 2015. The average observed pre-hunt fawn ratio was 57 fawns/100 does, down from 63 fawns/100 does in 2015.

Pronghorn on the eastern plains are doing quite well while herds in the western portion of the state have been struggling for about a decade. Colorado offers some excellent hunting for one of North America’s most iconic animals.

Moose

All moose licenses remain limited. Demand far exceeds allocation with 24,000 individuals applying for 341 moose licenses in 2016. For 2017, we are recommending 415 moose licenses (+74, +22%). This includes 171 bull and either-sex licenses and 244 cow licenses.

The estimated statewide 2016 post-hunt moose population is 3,000, up from 2,700 in 2015. The current statewide population objective range for moose herds is 2,000 to 2,600. The recommended increase in cow moose licenses (+24, +11%) is designed to manage moose populations toward objectives and keep moose populations within the capability of their habitat.

We now have moose hunting in 60 GMUs, up from 39 GMUs in 2013. We are fortunate our moose population continue to do well because many other states are experiencing declines in their moose populations. The growing number and distribution of moose in Colorado have resulted in greater hunting opportunity.

Bear

Bear management is governed by the strategic goals described in the 17 DAU plans and the direction of the Parks and Wildlife Commission. From 2010-present, 10 of the DAU plans have been updated. In most plan areas the goals are to continue bear population reductions, while in B-3, B-7, B-13, and B-14 the goal is to stabilize bear populations near current levels.

In 2017, the statewide harvest objective is about 1,150 bears and the statewide total mortality objective is approximately 1,600. The sum of license allocations for all bear management areas is 26,181 licenses recommended for approval by the Commission. In total this is an increase of 318 licenses from the 2016 allocation.

In bear management unit B-7, management objectives to decrease the bear population for 5 consecutive years have been met and the license reductions (-70 licenses) are intended to continue the shift toward stabilizing the bear population at a lower level than that found when the management plan was approved in 2011. In bear management unit B-2, the small license reduction (-10) is in the limited September rifle season and represents the first incremental step toward stabilizing the bear population while maintaining the relatively high levels of licenses in locations prone to human-bear conflicts.

The changes recommended to the license allocations in the other bear management units (B-3, B-4, B-5, B-10, B-15, B-16, and B-19) are mostly allocated to September or PLO seasons, the time when harvest success rates and demand for licenses are highest. We recommend additional licenses in those bear management units to decrease bear populations.

In 2017, female bears are expected to comprise over 40% of the harvest statewide and we expect greater than 55% of the female bears will be adults. These two harvest composition characteristics are indicative of decreasing bear populations. In combination, the annual evaluation of forage conditions, hunter success rate trends, harvest composition, and the absolute mortality amount informs us that we are accomplishing our management goal of reducing black bear populations in most locations across the State and maintaining stabilized bear populations in several specific DAUs.

Conclusion

The 2017 big game license recommendations provide for an economically significant and diverse amount of big game hunting throughout all of Colorado. These recommendations and the associated over-the-counter licenses provide the opportunity for over 300,000 hunters to enjoy the incredible big game resources of the State. They also represent the accumulation of thousands of hours of employees’ efforts conducting herd inventories, obtaining harvest estimates, incorporating this information into predictive models, and finally setting limited license recommendations. I am pleased to present these recommendations as a testament to the incredible wildlife resources CPW manages for the enjoyment of the people of Colorado and its visitors.

Clarification of Ages for Dream Hunt Licenses

According to state statute 33-4-117(6), the commission is authorized to establish a special licensing program/preference for hunters twenty-one years of age or younger who suffer from a terminal illness or life threatening disease or illness. The commission established this preference through the Dream Hunt regulation #206(B)(4)(h). However, based on the previous regulatory wording, it was unclear whether a 21-year-old with a terminal illness or a life-threatening disease or injury would be eligible. This clean-up to regulation #206(B)(4)(h)(1) was made for consistency with state statute and to make the regulation clearer.

The primary statutory authority for these regulations can be found in § 24-4-103, C.R.S., and the state Wildlife Act, §§ 33-1-101 to 33-6-209, C.R.S., specifically including, but not limited to: §§ 33-1-106, C.R.S.

EFFECTIVE DATE - THESE REGULATIONS SHALL BECOME EFFECTIVE JULY 1, 2017 AND SHALL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT UNTIL REPEALED, AMENDED OR SUPERSEDED.

APPROVED AND ADOPTED BY THE PARKS AND WILDLIFE COMMISSION OF THE STATE OF COLORADO THIS 5TH DAY OF MAY, 2017.

APPROVED:

James C. Pribyl

Chairman

ATTEST:

Michelle Zimmerman

Secretary

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