Seasonal Climate Forecast Dec. 2021 –Feb. 2022

[Pages:25]Seasonal Climate Forecast September ? November 2023

Issued: August 17, 2023

Contact: ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons 503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@odf.

ODA production support: Diana Walker; Andy Zimmerman; Jenn Ambrose ODF production support: Julie Vondrachek; Kristin Cody

El Ni?o vs La Ni?a

(SST Patters in the Tropical Pacific Ocean)

Courtesy:

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

El Ni?o is strengthening

Courtesy:

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Current Status and Forecast

n The monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from +0.3 to -0.3, reflecting weakening strength of the easterly trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean. That should continue, as El Ni?o strengthens...

n The May ? July 2023 Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI +0.8?C) warmed into the weak El Ni?o range. This index lags real-time sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which reflect moderate El Ni?o conditions.

n NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Ni?o Advisory. Their modeling predicts additional warming of tropical Pacific SSTs with the likelihood of a strong El Ni?o by this winter.

Important Note: This "Seasonal Climate Forecast" does not consider NOAA's ENSO forecast. It uses only historical and current ENSO conditions to find "analog years" that most-closely match the evolution of the current ENSO state.



Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

(1950-1951; 1964-1965; 1971-1972) La Ni?a

July 2023 SOI (-0.3) was in ENSO-neutral

territory

ENSO-Neutral

El Ni?o

July analogs ranged from ENSO-neutral to El Ni?o

Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI)

(1950-1951; 1964-1965; 1971-1972)

Strong El Ni?o

Moderate Weak

ENSO-Neutral

Weak Moderate

Strong La Ni?a

May ? July 2023 ONI (+0.8?C) reflected Weak El Ni?o

May ? July ONI analogs

had all transitioned into El Ni?o

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

(Reflects SST "Phase" in the North Pacific Ocean )

Positive (Warm) "Phase"

Negative (Cool) "Phase"

SST Anomalies

Courtesy:

North Pacific Ocean

(Poleward of 20?N Latitude)

(1950-1951; 1964-1965; 1971-1972) Warm Phase

Neutral

Jan. 2022 PDO not available

July 2023 PDO (-2.58)

remained deeply in "Cool Phase"

Cool Phase

July analog PDO values were in the "Neutral" or "Cool Phase"

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