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The Daily News Of TV Sales

October 3, 2016

NADA FORECAST: NEW CAR SALES PLATEAU

DEALERS MOVING TO DIGITAL TARGETING

You’ve read here many times in recent months that U.S. sales of new cars and light trucks appear to have plateaued—and the chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) appears to agree with that in his latest forecast. Speaking at the TVB Forward conference in New York, Steven Szakaly (pictured) presented figures showing 2016 sales of 17.7 million—up modestly from the 2015 record of 17.5 million—but then slipping over the next four years. Szakaly’s forecast is for sales of 17.1 million in 2017, 16.7 million in 2018, 16.5 million in 2019—and then a slight rebound to 16.7 million in 2020. Those are still strong sales numbers by historical comparison, but are still a unit decline for the industry.

In Szakaly’s view, the pen-up demand from the Great Recession has been satisfied as employment and the overall economy have improved and people stepped up to buy new cars. But he also noted that average prices for new cars have been rising faster than wages—a trend he warns can’t go on indefinitely. Loan periods are longer and the average monthly payment now takes 12% of the average income—up from 9.5% in 2005. With negative equity lasting longer, people can be expected to keep their cars longer—negatively impacting future sales opportunities.

Meanwhile, the average age of the 5.3% of the U.S. population buying a new car each year has risen to 51.7 years old. Millennials, who now average 26.8 years old, are burdened by college debt and are delaying marriage and having children—factors which inhibit them from buying new cars. The bad news for TV ad sales, according to Szakaly, is that auto dealers are increasingly turning to targeted digital advertising to reach that small pool of potential buyers—particularly the Millennials ready to buy their first new vehicle. So TV may increasingly be dependent on the manufacturers and regional dealer associations for ad buys.

But there is potential opportunity as well. With margins shrinking on the new car side, dealers are increasingly dependent on used car sales—and new car dealers sell about 14 million used cars each year, with higher profit margins than new—financing and service. “Service and part are very profitable for a dealership,” Szakaly noted, but those have not been heavily promoted through advertising. “In this space, used and service, there’s certainly a lot of opportunities—and I think in many ways there’s a lot of opportunities that involve increased advertising and increasing consumer’s knowledge and understanding that the dealerships actually offer these products.”

ADVERTISER NEWS

Volkswagen officially confirmed on Friday it will pay $1.21 billion to its 652 U.S. dealers over the next 18 months, an average of $1.85 million per dealership. Company lawyers also said VW will not sell diesels in the U.S. for at least the 2016 and 2017 model years, and it’s uncertain if it will ever sell diesels again here. VW also will buy back all the vehicles sitting on dealers’ lots that they cannot sell as well as delay by two years pushing for dealers to make capital improvements to their stores…… Buick will introduce a new sub-brand called Avenir (the French word for “future”) which will offer high-end enhancements such as larger wheels, a different grille, premium trim features and other upgrades. Buick says the brand’s changing demographics make the timing right—the average age of its buyers is coming down, it’s doing better with women, and about half its customers are now “conquests” coming from other brands. Buick’s domestic sales are down 0.4% this year, but that’s the best of General Motors’ four brands……Dunkin’ Brands Group has struck a deal with Coca-Cola to sell Dunkin’ Donuts ready-to-drink coffee in stores starting early next year, which will compete with a similar arrangement between Starbucks and Pepsi. Under the deal, Coke will pay a fee to Dunkin’ that will be split between the company and the franchisees that own Dunkin’ stores……Costco same-store sales for the quarter that ended on 8/28 were up 3% excluding gas and the strong dollar. The company plans to open 17 new domestic stores in the next 12 months and says recent openings have shown that opening warehouses in smaller markets is working out better than had been expected……Tractor Supply, which has operated two standalone HomeTown Pet stores, is acquiring Petsense which currently operates 136 stores in 25 states. Tractor Supply says it will expand the Petsense roster at an annual growth rate of 15-20%......Despite a strong U.S. dollar, we’ve been seeing more Canadian investment in U.S. companies, such as Couche-Tard buying up c-stores and a possible takeover of Nieman Marcus by Hudson’s Bay Company. Now Supermarket News is reporting Toronto-based equity firm Onex is the lead bidder for the Save-A-Lot discount supermarket chain Supervalu is selling with a final decision on the 1,300 store chain due in a couple of weeks……We’ve already seen some evidence the furniture business could be slowing down and Bassett Furniture reports a 5.7% drop in consolidated sales for the third quarter. Bassett has 59 company-owned stores and they had a 0.9% same-store sales drop and a 1.3% total decline.

NETWORK NEWS

ABC announced last week that both Designated Survivor and Speechless have been picked up for the full season. ABC Entertainment President Channing Dungey said “Designated Survivor and Speechless are two of the most critically acclaimed new shows of the fall season.” The programs both air on Wednesday nights……The order for a full season for Designated Survivor could have been prompted by the record setting lift the drama got from the Live +7 Nielsen ratings. The premiere posted 10 million total viewers Live +SD, the program picked up 7.7 million more viewers when the Live +7 numbers were released, making it the largest-ever total viewer Live +7 increase for any program on any network......Lady Gaga has been officially set to perform a halftime at the Super Bowl. The NFL and Pepsi made the announcement last week. FOX will air the Super Bowl from NRG Stadium in Houston on February 5th, 2017……Fred Armisen is set to appear as Nikola Tesla in the mid-season FOX comedy, Making History. The time-traveling series is described as two shows in one—a rollicking historical adventure and a contemporary comedy about love, friendship and trying to fit in to an increasingly complex and impersonal world……Grey’s Anatomy alum Sandra Oh will be back on ABC in 2017 in the anthology series, American Crime. Oh will play a social worker who runs a shelter in Alamance County, NC for victims of domestic abuse......A new splashy, edgy soap is being developed by 20th Century Fox and ABC. Icon will be an hour-long drama about an up-and-coming designer battling inner demons that hamper her rising career. Empire executive producer and director, Sanaa Hamri will direct the pilot……FOX has bought a script for a new animated comedy from Family Guy’s Alex Carter and supernatural guru, M. Night Shyamalan. Eleven Little Indians will examine three branches of a large Indian family—one has achieved the American dream, another just arrived in the U.S. and the third has gone off the rails. Shyamalan is known for his movies, but has recently has been more involved in TV. His first project for FOX was the summer drama Wayward Pines, and he’s producing a revamped Tales from the Crypt for TNT……The CW is taking a cue from the presidential election by developing a new drama revolving around the hot button issue of immigration. Producer Greg Bertalani is working with the network on Casa, a drama about a Hispanic family of six siblings who have to band together to survive after their parents are deported. Casa will be written by Ed Gonzalez and Jeremy Haft, both worked on the first season of Empire on FOX......Mail Order Family, a new half-hour comedy from Jackie Clark and Ruben Fleischer of Superstore has been put in production by NBC. David Bernad will be executive producer……FOX has ordered a new live competition series for some time in 2017. The F Word is a food variety show from award-winning chef and series host Gordon Ramsay. Based on his U.K. series of the same name, each fast-paced hour will combine good food and good cooking with Ramsay's passion, energy and humor into the live series. On The F Word, foodie families from across the U.S. will battle it out in an intense, high-stakes cook-off. In addition to impressing Ramsay, each team must win over the hearts and taste buds of the diners, celebrities and VIP guests whom they're serving.

WEEKEND RATINGS

MacGyver slipped three-tenths in A18-49 from its premiere a week earlier, but still topped Friday night at 1.4 in the demo and led CBS to the primetime victory. Its lineup had the night’s top three shows, with Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods both at 1.3 in the demo. The Nielsen overnights showed the Eye Net at an average 1.3 18-49, with an average audience of 9.70 million. Shark Tank, at 1.1 18-49, led ABC to second place at an average 1.0 18-49, with an average audience of 4.66 million. FOX was at 0.9 18-49 and 2.64 million; NBC 0.8 18-49 and 4.01 million; and The CW 0.4 18-39 and 1.29 million.

Saturday Night College Football on ABC—Clemson beating Louisville—drew more viewers than the other networks combined. The Alphabet Net boasted an average 3.1 rating A 18-49 and an average audience of 9.02 million. CBS, with 48 Hours, was at 0.6 18-49 and 3.91 million; FOX, with its own College Football game—UCLA beating Arizona—0.5 18-49 and 1.83 million; and NBC, with reruns, 0.4 18-49 and 1.91 million.

ANA WANTS FACEBOOK TO BE AUDITED

Many advertisers are upset by the revelation from Facebook that due to an error in how its metrics had been calculated, the social media company overestimated video ad views by 60-80% over two years. At the Association of National Advertisers, CEO Bob Liodice says the solution is clear—3rd party auditing. “While ANA recognizes that ‘mistakes do happen,’ we also recognize that Facebook has not yet achieved the level of measurement transparency that marketers need and require,” Liodice said in a statement.

The ANA chief noted that Facebook metrics are not accredited by the Media Rating Council (MRC) and an audit of Facebook metrics has not been completed. With more than $6 billion of marketers’ media being directed to Facebook, we believe that it is time for them—and other such major media players—to be audited and accredited. That is the standard of accepted practice that marketers and agencies have relied on for decades,” said Liodice.

A survey last year of ANA members—the biggest marketers in the country—found an overwhelming 97% of marketers wanted digital media owners to allow their inventory to be measured by a third party. The ANA members surveyed also said internal viewability measurements employed by digital media owners should not be used for the purposes of conducting outside commerce.

Marketers and their agencies should only use third party vendors that have been accredited by the MRC for current industry-agreed viewability standards, the survey results said. And internal viewability measurements used by digital media owners for non-commerce purposes should be MRC accredited or IAB (Interactive Advertising Bureau) certified to help ensure comparability with commerce metrics.

Liodice called these basic requirements the “table stakes” for digital advertising. “ANA does not believe there are any pragmatic reasons that a media company should not abide by the standards of accreditation and auditing,” he said.

AUTO INCENTIVES UP IN SEPTEMBER

With auto manufacturers due to report September sales numbers today, TrueCar estimates that incentive spending was up 7.8% from a year ago to drive sales—averaging $3,387 per vehicle, which was up 0.5% from August. In line with other forecasts, TrueCar expects total September sales to be 1.4 million—down 2.3% from a year ago. That will put the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of sales at 17.4 million—down from 18.0 million in September 2015. Even so, TrueCar says the auto industry remains on track to have a record sales year.

"Recent sales declines may suggest otherwise, but automakers are still posting higher than average transaction prices with strong consumer demand for luxury and SUV vehicles," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's chief industry analyst.

Subaru had the biggest percentage gain in incentive spending per unit sold in September, according to TrueCar—up 68.5% from a year ago. But that may not mean much, since Subaru is not big on using incentives to move vehicles. Even with that increase, its average incentive per unit of $1,014 is the lowest of any maker reported.

BMW is reported to have increased incentives 44.3% to $6,732 per vehicle; and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 22.8% to $4,302. Other double-digit increases came from Nissan, up 12.1% to $3,896; and Ford 11.4% to $4,092.

Honda, Daimler and Toyota reportedly reduced incentives from a year ago, with Honda cutting the most—down 16.7% to $1,722.

FCA UNVEILS SUPER PICKUP

With light trucks and SUVs driving the new vehicle market, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) has taken the wraps off a new pickup concept with nearly 600 horsepower. The Ram Rebel TRX concept shown at the State Fair of Texas is the most powerful half-ton pickup the company has ever built, with a 6.2-liter supercharged Hemi V-8 engine that produces 575 horsepower and is especially designed for off-road use. That big V8 is the same one used in the Dodge Hellcat Charger and Challenger models—although it produces 707 horsepower in the set-up for the lighter-weight cars.

ENTRAVISION CREATING ADVERTISER CONTENT

Entravision Communications announced the launch of a new digital content initiative to produce and distribute unique content for advertisers. The effort will be driven through an investment in and partnership with Chanclazo Studios, Inc., an innovative digital production studio that creates and distributes short- and long-form 3D animation, virtual reality and augmented reality content for Hispanic audiences. In conjunction with the investment, Entravision also entered into an agreement with Chanclazo to distribute content created by Chanclazo and to serve as their exclusive advertising sales representative. Pitching the new concept at its Upfront event during Advertising Week in New York, Entravision said it will significantly expand its embedded marketing capabilities, offering advertisers unique branded content and product placement opportunities.

ACCOUNT ACTION

The long-expected deal is finally done. Multiple reports say Walmart has awarded its $650 million-plus U.S. media planning and buying account to Haworth Marketing + Media, Minneapolis. Talks on the account move began in April when Walmart rival Target dropped Haworth for WPP’s GroupM—which had (briefly) been handling the Walmart account.

THIS AND THAT

Bloomberg reported late Sunday that Bass Pro is close to an agreement to acquire Cabela’s Inc. in a deal that would unite two of America’s largest outdoor-sports equipment retailers. Private equity bidder Sycamore Partners reportedly came up short and the Bass Pro deal could be announced as soon as today……Consumer spending was flat in August, the Commerce Department reported, as lower car and truck sales offset gains in other sectors.

AVAILS

WDIV-TV/ClickOnDetroit is looking for a National Sales Manager willing to reinvent our business by being big, bold and thinking outside the traditional way of doing business. WDIV-TV ranks in the top five LPM NBC affiliates in the country and the station website is the number one local television website in Michigan. This multimedia platform has the best products available in the advertising universe and is a seller’s dream come true. National sales experience is preferred. More details HERE. Resume only to: angelas@. E.O.E.

Do you have a passion for digital? WAVE3 News, a Raycom Media owned NBC Affiliate in exciting Louisville, KY has a fantastic opportunity for a Senior Digital Sales Specialist to work strategically with the AE's to create effective digital solutions for clients to significantly grow our digital revenue. Must have expert knowledge of digital advertising solutions and at least 3 years of proven digital sales experience. Must demonstrate a successful track record of being analytical, well organized, solution minded, consultative, and customer-centric. If qualified, CLICK HERE to submit your resume. EOE.

Multi-Platform AE: 6abc, the Disney owned market leader in Philadelphia has an outstanding opportunity for an ambitious multi-platform seller to join our local team. Candidates must have a proven track record as a developmental seller with success in generating new revenue for broadcast and digital platforms. Candidate should have 5 years of media sales experience. If you have a track record of meeting and exceeding aggressive revenue goals apply on-line at , look for job 400364BR. EEO/F/M/V/D/SO/GI

A company has come out with a new smartphone-connected candle that can light or extinguish itself on command. Of course, Samsung already has a phone that can light without a command.

--Seth Meyers

A 700-pound woman is trying to hit 1,000 pounds to reach her goal of becoming the World’s Fattest Woman. Although, she still plans to put ‘700 pounds’ on her Tinder profile.

--Conan O’Brien

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SPOTS N DOTS

The Daily News Of TV Sales

October 3, 2016

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