Kansas City
MARKETBEAT
Kansas City
Office Q2 2017
KANSAS CITY OFFICE Economic Indicators
Kansas City Employment Kansas City Unemployment U.S. Unemployment
Q2 16 1,062.3K
4.3% 4.9%
Q2 17 1,086.7K
3.7% 4.4%
12-Month Forecast
Market Indicators (Overall, All Classes)
Q2 16
Q2 17
Vacancy Net Absorption (sf) Under Construction (sf) Average Asking Rent
17.3% 307K 284K $19.04
16.8% 356K 249K $19.79
12-Month Forecast
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent
4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE
300
$19.50
200
$19.00
100
$18.50
0
$18.00
-100
$17.50
-200 2011
2012
2013
2014
Net Absorption, 000's
2015
2016
Asking Rent, $ PSF
$17.00 Q2 17
Overall Vacancy
24% 22% 20% 18% Historical Average = 17.1% 16% 14% 12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q2 17
Economy
Halfway through 2017 there is no denying uncertainty and apprehension hang over significant portions of the economy. However the Kansas City commercial real estate market has remained healthy in the face of these concerns and challenges. It is possible the US economy is continuing to improve even if there are no dramatic jumps. One reference point for this theory is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The advance estimate for annualized GDP growth in the first quarter came on April 28th and was a worrisome 0.7%, but the first revision on May 26th was 1.2% while the third revision on June 29th had first quarter GDP growth at 1.4%.
These revisions don't retroactively make the first quarter better and GDP growth below 2.0% isn't going to generate much excitement, but they do show things aren't as bad as first thought. One encouraging sign for the economy is the decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on June 15 to raise the target range for federal funds by another 25 basis points to the current level of 1.00%-1.25%. The FOMC also indicated they plan to continue a steady schedule of rate increases with a potential target of 3.00% in 2019. The current trend of rate hikes coupled with the forecast for more in the near future indicates the Federal Reserve is confident the domestic economy is healthy and moving in the right direction.
Market Overview
In the first quarter of 2017 the Kansas City office market was essentially unchanged as substantial gains in occupancy in the Central Business District (CBD) were offset by large move-outs in the suburban markets. However none of the moves were tenants relocating to the CBD so there was optimism the suburbs would bounce back quickly. The suburbs did rebound with 229,000 square feet (SF) of absorption in the second quarter while the CBD added an additional 127,000 SF. The strong second quarter throughout the city means year-to-date absorption now stands at 356,000 SF and the vacancy rate has dropped to 16.8%, its lowest level since 2008.
Delivery of new space was a major driver in the suburbs, as work was completed on the new 111,000 SF build-tosuit headquarters for Dairy Farmer's of America near the Legends development in western Wyandotte County while the 144,000 SF Class A Nall Corporate Center II was also delivered. With Mariner Wealth Advisors taking 90,000 SF of space and Worldwide Express taking 17,000 SF, Nall Corporate Center II is already almost two-thirds full.
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MARKETBEAT
Kansas City
Office Q2 2017
The largest single chunk of absorption came from Mark One Electric moving into the 147,000 SF building at 1414 Genessee in the West Bottoms. The building is part of the Downtown submarket and that move combined with Crestwood Partners taking 30,000 SF at 2400 Pershing in Crown Center and Virgin Mobile occupying 27,000 SF at
THE STRONG SECOND QUARTER IN ALL PARTS OF THE CITY MEANS YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION NOW STANDS AT 356,000 SF AND THE VACANCY RATE HAS DROPPED TO 16.8%, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
Vacancy Trend
THE OVERALL VACANCY RATE CONTINUES TO DECLINE
24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q2 17
Class A
Class B
A&B Combined
One Kansas City Place means the CBD has now reported 376,000 SF of absorption in 2017 and the vacancy rate has fallen to 20.1%. At the end of 2016 the CBD vacancy rate was 23.4% but with the area attracting new tenants while existing companies look to expand it is likely the rate will continue to fall throughout the second half of 2017.
One area where the Kansas City office market has not shown much momentum has been speculative construction of new space. The delivery of Nall Corporate II was a solid addition to the market although the majority of space was preleased to Mariner Wealth Management before work was started. Following the recent demolition of the former CenturyLink building at 110th and Nall construction has now started on a 125,000 SF class A building scheduled for delivery in mid-2018, but the building has already been 100% leased to Creative Planning. Plans still exist for the 46 Penn project in the Plaza submarket but it appears that at least one tenant will have to be secured before work will begin on the proposed 220,000 SF tower.
Outlook
? The College Boulevard corridor led a significant rebound for South Johnson County in the second quarter, with the largest single deal taking place at OPx where SelectQuote took occupancy of 77,000 SF.
? Asking rates for space in the CBD continue to rise, having jumped from $18.77 per-square-foot (PSF) at the midway point of 2016 to $19.60 PSF at the end of the second quarter of 2017.
? Some smaller construction projects will be completed in the second half of 2017 but no significant new space is expected to deliver until at least mid-2018.
Asking Rate Trend
THE OVERALL AVERAGE ASKING RATE CONTINUES TO CLIMB
$24 $23 $22 $21 $20 $19 $18 $17
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Class A Class B A&B Combined
Q2 17
Occupied Office Space vs. Office-Using Employment
OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
Occupied Space, MSF
Employment, 000's
42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.5 37.0
2011
2012
2013
Occupied Space
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, BLS
305
295
285
275
265
255
245
2014 2015 2016
235 Q2 17
Office-using Employment
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MARKETBEAT
Kansas City
Office Q2 2017
SUBMARKET
Downtown Crown Center/Crossroads Plaza South Kansas City Northland East / SE Jackson County North Johnson County South Johnson County Other Suburban Markets KANSAS CITY TOTALS
INVENTORY (SF)
SUBLET VACANT
(SF)
DIRECT VACANT
(SF)
6,930,000
3,000 1,431,000
4,562,000
86,000 793,000
3,129,000
10,000 317,000
3,349,000
71,000 386,000
3,830,000
15,000 1,123,000
3,037,000
98,000 434,000
6,927,000 133,000 773,000
16,766,000 288,000 2,056,000
1,766,000
18,000 394,000
50,296,000 723,000 7,707,000
OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
CURRENT QTR OVERALL NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
YTD OVERALL
NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
20.7%
163,000 310,000
YTD LEASING ACTIVITY (SF)
131,000
UNDER CNSTR
(SF)
OVERALL AVERAGE ASKING RENT (ALL CLASSES)*
OVERALL AVERAGE ASKING RENT (CLASS A)*
0
$19.44
$21.48
19.3%
-36,000
66,000
147,000
0
$19.88
$20.09
10.4%
-3,000
4,000
114,000
0
$23.63
$26.29
13.6%
4,000
19,000
58,000
0
$18.99
N/A
29.7%
17,000
69,000
82,000
0
$16.65
$19.37
17.5%
-8,000
22,000
85,000 30,000
$16.73
$22.50
13.1%
-17,000 -94,000
208,000 29,000
$19.91
$24.73
14.0%
133,000 -202,000
792,000 190,000
$22.20
$26.44
23.4%
103,000 142,000
154,000
0
$16.35
N/A
16.8% 356,000 336,000 1,951,000 249,000
$19.79
$23.45
Class A Class B
INVENTORY (SF)
13,433,000 36,296,000
SUBLET VACANT
(SF)
DIRECT VACANT
(SF)
153,000 1,718,000 570,000 5,989,000
OVERALL VACANCY
RATE
13.9%
CURRENT QTR OVERALL NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
YTD OVERALL
NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
235,000 310,000
YTD LEASING ACTIVITY
(SF)
416,000
17.8%
120,000
26,000 1,535,000
UNDER
DIRECT
CNSTR
AVERAGE
(SF) ASKING RENT*
125,000 124,000
$23.85 $18.66
OVERALL AVERAGE
ASKING RENT*
$23.45
$18.66
Key Lease Transactions Q2 2017
PROPERTY 1414 Genessee 1405 N. 98th Street OPx Nall Corporate Centre II 6330 Sprint Parkway 2400 Pershing One Kansas City Place Nall Corporate Centre II
SF 147,000 111,000
77,000 73,000 31,000 30,000 27,000 17,000
TENANT Mark One Electric Dairy Farmer's of America
SelectQuote Mariner Wealth Advisors
All-State Crestwood Partners
Virgin Mobile Worldwide Express
TRANSACTION TYPE Lease
BTS Completion Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease Lease
Key Sales Transactions Q2 2017
PROPERTY Valencia Place Holmes Corporate Center Portfolio 1414 Genessee Jensen Salsbery Building
SF
SELLER/BUYER
251,000 Taubmam Centers & Macerich/Price Brothers
197,000
NCWP Holmes/Woodbury Capital
147,000 BO Properties/Privitera Realty Holdings
45,000 Henessy Research/Superior Bowen
PRICE / $PSF $298/PSF $85/PSF n/a n/a
SUBMARKET Downtown
Wyandotte County College Boulevard College Boulevard College Boulevard
Crown Center Downtown
College Boulevard
SUBMARKET Plaza
South Kansas City Downtown Crossroads
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MARKETBEAT
Kansas City
Office Q2 2017
OFFICE SUBMARKETS
KANSAS CITY
92
69
NORTHLAND 35
435
169
152
210
73
29
40
70
32
10
WYANDOTTE 635 COUNTY
291 24
435
NORTH
7
JOHNSON COUNTY
CBD
435
CROWN CENTER
MIDTOWN PLAZA
71 350
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY 70
40
7 470
59
SOUTH
35
KC
SOUTH
JOHNSON
69
COUNTY
169
150
49
50
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
291
56
Cushman & Wakefield 2600 Grand Boulevard Suite 1000 Kansas City, MO 64108
For more information, contact: Matt Nevinger Research Manager Tel: +1 816 221 2200 matt.nevinger@
About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 43,000 employees in more than 60 countries help investors and occupiers optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit or follow @CushWake on Twitter.
Copyright ? 2017 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
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