Comments on New York City’s Preliminary Budget for Fiscal ...

Office of the New York City Comptroller

Scott M. Stringer

Bureau of Fiscal and Budget Studies ptroller. (212) 669-2507

Comments on New York City's Preliminary Budget for Fiscal Year 2016 and Financial Plan for Fiscal Years 2015-2019

March 4, 2015

SCOTT M. STRINGER

Comptroller

Deputy Comptroller for Budget Tim Mulligan

Assistant Director for Budget Suri Grussgott

Bureau Chief Eng-Kai Tan

Chief Economist Frank Braconi

Project Coordinator Manny Kwan

Principal Economist Farid Heydarpour

Staff Kettly Bastien Amitabha Basu Rosa Charles Stephen Corson Peter E. Flynn Michele Griffin Michael Hecht Dahong Huang

Robyn Liverpool Irina Livshits Andrew McWilliam Marcia Murphy Jane Pyon Andrew Rosenthal Orlando Vasquez

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................v

II. THE STATE OF THE CITY'S ECONOMY...........................................................................5

A. U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................... 5

B. NEW YORK CITY'S ECONOMIC CONDITION AND OUTLOOK................................... 7

III. THE FY2016 PRELIMINARY BUDGET............................................................................11 The FY 2015 Budget ............................................................................................................. 13 Risks and Offsets ................................................................................................................... 14

A. REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS....................................................................................................... 15 Tax Revenues ........................................................................................................................ 16 Miscellaneous Revenues ....................................................................................................... 19 Federal and State Aid ........................................................................................................... 21

B. EXPENDITURES ANALYSIS .................................................................................................... 22 Labor .................................................................................................................................... 23 Pensions................................................................................................................................ 24 Headcount............................................................................................................................. 27 Overtime ............................................................................................................................... 30 Health Insurance .................................................................................................................. 32 Public Assistance .................................................................................................................. 33 Department of Education...................................................................................................... 34 Debt Service.......................................................................................................................... 35 Capital Commitment Plan .................................................................................................... 38 Preliminary Ten-Year Capital Strategy ................................................................................ 41

IV. APPENDIX.............................................................................................................................47

GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS....................................................................................................53

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