2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep - Aristotle

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OCTOBER 16, 2020

VOLUME 4, NO. 20

2020 Senate Ratings

Daines (R-Mont.)

Toss-Up

Ernst (R-Iowa)

Tilt Democratic

Collins (R-Maine) McSally (R-Ariz.) Tillis (R-N.C.)

Tilt Republican

Graham (R-S.C.) Perdue (R-Ga.) KS Open (Roberts, R)#

Lean Democratic

Gardner (R-Colo.)# Peters (D-Mich.)

Lean Republican

Cornyn (R-Texas) Loeffler (R-Ga.) Jones (D-Ala.)

Likely Democratic

Likely Republican

Sullivan (R-Alaska)

Solid Democratic

NM Open (Udall, D)

Booker (D-N.J.)

Coons (D-Del.)

Durbin (D-Ill.)

Markey (D-Mass.)

Merkley (D-Ore.)

Reed (D-R.I.)

Shaheen (D-N.H.)

Smith (D-Minn.)

Warner (D-Va.)

GOP

116th Congress 53

Not up this cycle 30

Currently Solid

11

Competitive

12

DEM 47 35 10 2

Solid Republican

TN Open (Alexander, R) WY Open (Enzi, R) Cassidy (R-La.) Capito (R-W.Va.) Cotton (R-Ark.) Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) Inhofe (R-Okla.) McConnell (R-Ky.) Risch (R-Idaho) Rounds (R-S.D.) Sasse (R-Neb.)

Takeovers in Italics, # moved benefiting Democrats, * moved benefiting Republicans

2020 Elections: Democrats Poised for a Sweep

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has

shifted, but not in a way that was expected.

In the aftermath of President Donald Trump's first debate

2020 Senate Ratings performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden's

national standing has improved by a couple of points.

It hasn't quite filtered downTtootshse-sUtapte and House level yet, but there

are mostly encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot. For mCoosltlionfst(hRe-cMyacilnee, c)onventional wisdoEmrnsstai(dR-tIhoewraa)ce would tighten in thDeapinreessid(Ren-Mt'sofnatv.)or in the final weeTkisll.is (R-N.C.)

TiIlnt tDheepmreosicdreanttiiacl race, Biden conTtiinltueRsetophuabvleicthaenadvantage in the

EbGMilgeacTcgtSrehodsaarntatlle'qylsruC(n(eRoRosl-tt-lAiCetohrgonizeelso..o)iI.sn)olwwyahgeaotnohdderOnTehewixoassaforwerPinBleloirdjwdoeiunnreatat(hseRedh-mGeasasint.ar)etThnoegstfshi-nueanpls.wOheinseekgsor.ifpthe

oLn eotahnerDbaettmlegorcoruantdisc. Wisconsin anLdeNanebrRasekpa'usb2nlidcaDnistrict move to

LPeaenteDrsem(Do-Mcriacthic.)and New HampshiKreSmOopveens(tRooLbikeertlsy, DRe)mocratic.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to losCeosrunpypno(rRt i-nTetyxpasic)ally Republican shwteahtwiecsoh.nHisbeayiss2in1hgoallnedd-idn1igg9imtproiadicn-estsidn. egTslhepoidtseiegTmitruloeLJmvaooedpnets'eofsflisnL1e4(erKD-a(panR-onA-RisGlnaaets.ap)va.u)incbtdloicMrayniis,nsjoo2iu0nr1iin6,.gwAhelareska,

LiWkeithlyalDl oefmthoe crartaintgicchanges, BidLenikhealsyaR31e9ptoub16l3iceadnge with 56

electoral votes in states rated as a tosGs-ruaph.aFmor(sRo-mS.eCc.)ontext, Illinois Sen.

Barack Obama defeated Arizona SenS. JuollhivnanM(cRC-aAilnas3k6a5)-173 in 2008.

mSooIsntllitidhkeeDlSyeernmaantoeg,ecDtroeamatioDccermatoscarraetilcikneelSyt gtooaliiwndionRf c4eotnpotu6robsle.laWictsea,'rbneuatdDjuemstioncgraotusr

arNeMmOorpeelnik(eUlydatoll,eDxc)eed the top endToNf tOhpeernan(gAeletxhaanndReer,pRu)blicans are

toBmooakinetra(iDn-cNo.nJt.)rol. Based on the narWroYwOapdevnan(Etangzei,RRe)publicans enjoy in

aChoanondsfu(lDo-fDrealc.)es, another drop in GCOaPsssuidpyp(oRr-tLcao.u) ld push Democratic

gDaiunrsbcinlo(sDer-Itllo.)10 or 11 seats.

Capito (R-W.Va.)

bDMMaetmtIaelnrreokkftcielheeryelaydt(H(sDDcodo--MurnOostarpieens,.souD).fe)fesmthtooecslrhisaitfttsoifwnctioollmGrepOteaPCHtiintoytiedavttrneoer-dnirStaoe(mcRrxeyip-stAhaaasrn(nkRdi.dn)-tiMothineaiscilrlsey.-m)svoauljioldnreitrya.bTlhee

RRepeuebdli(cDa-nR-.hI.e)ld seats are increasingIlnyhvoufeln(eRra-Oblkel.aW.) e're changing our

pSrohjeachteioennt(oDa-ND.Hem.)ocratic net gain oMf bceCtwoneneenll1(0Ra-Kndy.)20 seats. Of course

oSutmcoitmh e(Ds -bMelinown.)or above that are poRssisibclhe.(R-Idaho)

WTahrnee2r0(1D6-Vpare.)sidential result casts aRsohuanddosw(Rov-Ser.Dan.)y political

projection. But what'sGoOftePn mDisEseMd isSthaastsdea(tRa--dNreivbe.)n projections in th1e1H6thouCseonagnrdesSsenate w5e3re not4f7ar off in 2016. And in 2018, political hDNaenmodtoiuccparpathtpsiesgrcasyianccelcedursaetaetls3y)0aidnedntthif3ei5eSdetnhaetesp(wlithreerseuRlteipnutbhleicHanosugseai(nwehdesreeats).

CuItr'rsepnotlyssSibolelidthat the1r1e is an1a0bject failure of public opinion polling thCaot munpdeetirtievsetimates GO12P voter2s across the board or a disproportionately

large number of undecided voters break for Trump and Republican

candidates. That's just not the most likely outcome.



Senate Report Shorts

Alabama. Doug Jones (D), elected 2017 special (50%). A recent New

York Times story shed some light on GOP nominee Tommy Tuberville's finances. It portrays the former Auburn head football coach as a victim who lost millions of dollars in multiple ponzi schemes and questions his "judgement and financial acumen" rather than a perpetrator. While Democrats are on the march into traditionally GOP territory nationwide, this race has been stubbornly static. Democrats admit Jones is still an underdog and Republicans are not worried about not taking over this seat. Lean Republican.

Morning Consult, Sept. 11-20 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Tuberville over Jones 52%-38%.

Alaska. Dan Sullivan (R), elected 2014 (48%). Al Gross went from

being a little-known independent orthopedic surgeon to being a record-

breaking fundraiser

nipping at the heels

of the freshman

Sullivan in just a

year. It's still not

clear if he has what

it takes to complete

the upset, but he will

get as good a look

as any Democrat or

Democratic-aligned candidate could

Al Gross

hope for. In addition to raking in $9 million from the beginning of July

to the end of September (in 2014, Sullivan raised $8 million total), Gross,

who is running with the endorsement of the Democratic Party, benefits

from a tight presidential race. Trump is barely clinging to a low-single

digit lead in the Last Frontier. The state is notoriously difficult to poll,

and finicky in its political preferences, but Republicans are taking Gross

seriously, with the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund putting

$3.7 million into the race this month. Gross, in addition to his strong

fundraising, will have help from outside Democratic groups as well,

which have committed more than $4 million to help Gross in October.

Republicans still feel confident about this one, but the fact that Alaska is a

bare knuckle fight is a good indicator of how Democrats have succeeded

in stretching the field this cycle. Likely Republican.

Harstad Strategic Research (D), Oct. 10-13 (LVs)-- General Election ballot:

Continued on page 3

Courtesy Al Gross for Senate

2020 Presidential Ratings (Electoral Votes)

Toss-Up (56)

Georgia (16)

Maine 2nd (1)

Ohio (18)#

Iowa (6)#

North Carolina (15)

Tilt Democratic (40)

Tilt Republican (38)

Arizona (11)

Florida (29)

Texas (38)

Lean Democratic (47)

Lean Republican (22)

Michigan (16)

Pennsylvania (20) Alaska (3)

Missouri (10)#

Nebraska 2nd (1)# Wisconsin (10)# Kansas (6)#

Montana (3)

Likely Democratic (20) Likely Republican (15)

Minnesota (10) Nevada (6)

South Carolina (9)

New Hampshire (4)#

Utah (6)

Solid Democratic (212) Solid Republican (88)

California (55)

New Mexico (5) Alabama (9)

South Dakota (3)

Colorado (9)

New York (29)

Arkansas (6)

Tennessee (11)

Connecticut (7) Oregon (7)

Idaho (4)

West Virginia (5)

Delaware (3)

Rhode Island (4) Indiana (11)

Wyoming (3)

D.C. (3)

Vermont (3)

Kentucky (8)

Hawaii (4)

Virginia (13)

Louisiana (8)

Illinois (20)

Washington (12) Mississippi (6)

Maine At-Large (2)

NebraskaAt-Large (2)

Maine 1st (1)

Nebraska 1st (1)

Maryland (10)

Nebraska 3rd (1)

Massachusetts (11)

North Dakota (3)

New Jersey (14)

Oklahoma (7)

270 needed to win

GOP DEM

2016 Results

304

227

2020 Ratings

163

319

Toss-up

56

# moved benefiting Democrats, *moved benefiting Republicans

Nathan L. Gonzales Editor & Publisher nathan@

@nathanlgonzales

Jacob Rubashkin Reporter & Analyst jacob@

@jacobrubashkin

810 7th Street NE ? Washington, DC 20002 ? 202-546-2822

Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor stu@

Ryan Matsumoto Contributing Analyst ryan@

Robert Yoon Contributing Reporter & Analyst robert@

@InsideElections InsideElections

Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst bradley@

Will Taylor Production Artist will@

Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved.

2 October 16, 2020

NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH

Continued from page 2 Gross over Sullivan 47%-46%.

Alaska Survey Research (D), Sept. 25 - Oct. 4 (LVs)-- General Election ballot: Sullivan over Gross 48%-44%.

Arizona. Martha McSally (R), appointed Jan. 2019. Republicans remain

more optimistic about McSally's chances than does the public data or media

coverage. They believe

Trump is closer to

even in the state than

down a few points to

Joe Biden, and that

the hits against Kelly's

business dealings in

China are taking a

toll on the astronaut's

once-sky high image

ratings. Even if that's the case, McSally has

Martha McSally

to run strong over the next two weeks, and it doesn't help that the last two

weeks have not been kind to her. Cindy McCain, widow of the late Arizona

Sen. John McCain, endorsed Biden, likely giving him a slight boost at the

top of the ticket. And McSally's colleague/2018 opponent Sen. Kyrsten

Sinema cut a biting ad endorsing Kelly in this year's race. At a debate with

Kelly, McSally repeatedly refused to answer a question about whether she

was proud of her support for Trump, and tried several times to link Kelly

negatively to Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Muslim congresswoman from Minnesota

who has become a staple in GOP attack ads nationwide. Even if this race

isn't a blowout like some polls say, you'd still rather be Kelly. Tilt Democratic.

Monmouth Univ., Oct. 9-13 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Kelly over

McSally, 52%-42%.

Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Kelly over

McSally 49%-41%.

Trafalgar Group (R), Oct. 6-9 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Kelly over

McSally 47%-45%.

OH Predictive Insights, Oct. 4-8 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Kelly over

McSally, 50%-45%.

Colorado. Cory Gardner (R), elected 2014 (48%). Republicans believe

Gardner is running as good a campaign as he can, and that former Gov. John Hickenlooper is running as poor a campaign as they can imagine, but it's becoming clear that just doesn't matter. Gardner has trailed in every single public poll this cycle, and often by close to double digits, while the president is stuck 10 points behind Joe Biden. The ongoing fight over Amy Coney Barrett's nomination to the Supreme Court, which Gardner supports, will only serve to remind voters how close Gardner is to the deeply unpopular Trump. Whatever ethics clouds or debate missteps that may hang over Hickenlooper's head are minimal factors compared to the anti-Trump wave about to hit Colorado. For his part, any lackluster campaigning by Hickenlooper hasn't stopped him from raising toptier money; the former brewery owner pulled in $22.6 million from the beginning of July and the end of September. Move from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner 50%-40%.

SurveyUSA for 9News/Colorado Politics, Oct. 1-6 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Hickenlooper over Gardner 48%-39%.

Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

Courtesy Warnock for Senate

Georgia. David Perdue (R), elected 2014 (53%). Jan. 5 runoff (if

necessary). It's looking increasingly likely that neither Perdue nor Jon Ossoff, his Democratic opponent, will clear the 50 percent threshold necessary to win this race outright in November. Libertarian Shane Hazel continues to draw low-single digit support in the polls, and the presidential race in the state is dead even, providing little by way of coattails for either candidate. Republicans continue to see Ossoff as grossly underqualified for the job -- that hasn't stopped the 33-year-old filmmaker and investigative journalist from raking in $21.3 million this quarter, more than enough to compete down the stretch in this expensive state. If the race does go to a runoff, the still-GOP friendly fundamentals of the state favor Perdue. Tilt Republican.

Quinnipiac Univ., Oct. 8-12 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Ossoff over Perdue, 51%-46%.

SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Perdue over Ossoff, 46%-43%.

Data for Progress (D), Oct. 8-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Perdue over Ossoff, 44%-43%, Hazel (L) 3%.

Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Perdue over Ossoff 46%-42%.

Georgia. Kelly Loeffler (R) appointed Jan. 6, 2020. Special election

Nov. 3 (all candidates), Jan. 5 runoff (if necessary). Over the past month,

Raphael Warnock, the

Democrat running

with the backing of

the DSCC and most of

the Georgia political

establishment, has

largely consolidated

Democratic support

and positioned

himself as the clear

Ralphael Warnock

favorite for one of two January 5 runoff

spots. The real competition in November will be between appointed-Sen.

Loeffler and GOP Rep. Doug Collins for second place. After stumbling

out of the gate in the spring due to allegations of insider trading, Loeffler

solidified herself as the frontrunner in the summer, but has largely fallen

back into a dead heat with Collins, one of President Trump's most vocal

defenders in the House. Loeffler has relied on her own vast resources

and penchant for stirring up controversy to keep herself a nose ahead

of Collins, but both may come back to haunt her if she progresses to the

runoff against Warnock. With so many key unknowns about the runoff,

including which candidates make it and whether the seat matters for

control of the Senate, our Lean Republican is more of a placeholder

rather than specific analysis.

Quinnipiac Univ., Oct. 8-12 (LVs) -- All-party Special Election ballot:

Warnock (D) 41%, Collins (R) 22%, Loeffler (R) 20%, Lieberman (D) 5%,

Tarver (D) 2%.

SurveyUSA for WXIA-TV, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) -- All-party Special Election

ballot: Warnock (D) 30%, Loeffler (R) 26%, Collins (R) 20%, Lieberman (D)

8%, Tarver (D) 3%.

Public Policy Polling (D), Oct. 8-9 (RVs) -- All-party Special Election

ballot: Warnock (D) 41%, Loeffler, (R) 24%, Collins (R) 22%, Lieberman (D)

3%, Tarver (D) 0%.

Continued on page 4



October 16, 2020 3

Continued from page 3

Iowa. Joni Ernst (R), elected 2014 (51%). This race has largely remained

stable since the summer. That's not good news for Ernst, who is consistently

down low single digits

to businesswoman

Theresa Greenfield

in both public and

private polling. With

the presidential race a

dead heat, Ernst has

her work cut out for

her over the next two

weeks. She's enjoyed

some time in the spotlight as a member

Theresa Greenfield

of the Senate Judiciary Committee because of the Amy Coney Barrett

confirmation hearings. But in Iowa, Ernst and her allies are being outspent

massively by Democrats, who have a 2:1 advantage on the airwaves in the

final weeks of the race. This one could begin to slip away from Republicans

if Ernst isn't able to change the trajectory. And her debate answers on the

price of soy beans didn't help. Toss-up.

Data for Progress (D), Oct. 8-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Greenfield

over Ernst, 47%-43%, Stewart (L) 2%, Herzog (I) 1%.

YouGov/CBS, Oct. 6-9 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Greenfield over

Ernst 47%-43%.

Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Oct. 3-6 (LVs) -- General Election ballot:

Greenfield over Ernst 49%-46%, Stewart (L) 2%, Herzog (I) 1%.

Quinnipiac Univ., Oct 3-5 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Greenfield over

Ernst 50%-45%.

Kansas. Pat Roberts (R), not seeking re-election. Kansas is the

headache that won't go away for Republicans, and could veer into fullon nightmare territory if things don't change soon. Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in the Jayhawk state since 1932, but Barbara Bollier continues to make this race highly competitive. Her strong fundraising (she raised a record-breaking $13.5 million over the past three months) -- and GOP nominee Roger Marshall's anemic numbers -- has forced the McConnell-aligned Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund to spend $17 million since August. The NRSC is also going up on air, which is the exact outcome Marshall's primary victory over the controversial Kris Kobach was supposed to avoid.

With less than three weeks to go until Election Day, it's becoming clear why Republicans were so intense in their efforts to recruit Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run for this seat, and why the national party took so long to consolidate around Marshall. They're not getting much help from the top of the ticket, either, with Trump nowhere near to recreating his 20-point victory. He might only win Kansas by a handful of points. Move from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.

VCreek/AMG (R), Sept. 29-30 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Bollier over Marshall 45%-42%, Buckley (L) 2%.

Civiqs (D) for Daily Kos, Sept. 26-29 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Marshall over Bollier 50%-43%.

GBAO (D) for Bollier Campaign, Sept. 24-47 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Bollier over Marshall 45%-43%, Buckley (L) 7%.

co/efficient (R) for Keep Kansas Great PAC Sept. 15-16 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Marshall over Bollier 43%-39%.

Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call

Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Kentucky. Mitch McConnell (R), elected 1984 (50%), 1990 (52%),

1996 (55%), 2002 (65%), 2008 (53%) and 2014 (56%). Despite raising $37 million over the past three months, a record sum that not long ago would have rivaled some presidential campaigns, Marine pilot/2018 6th District nominee Amy McGrath is no closer to toppling McConnell in the Bluegrass State. McGrath got in some hot water with the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party after she started running ads in the Cincinnati media market featuring a voter explaining why he supported Trump and McGrath. If McGrath wants any shot at winning, she'll need to clean up in the Northern Kentucky Cincinnati suburbs, but it was an unforced error on her part. She did land a few hits on McConnell during a televised Oct. 12 debate, and the Senate majority leader gifted McGrath with perhaps the most compelling summation of her campaign, saying "she's a Marine, she's a mom and I've been there too long." While Democrats are bullish in other Republican states, this race doesn't look like it's happening for them. Solid Republican.

Data for Progress (D), Sept. 14-19 -- General Election ballot: McConnell over McGrath 46%-39%, Barron (L) 3%.

Maine. Susan Collins (R), elected 1996 (49%), 2002 (58%), 2008

(61%) and 2014 (69%). The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg

and subsequent

confirmation battle

over Amy Coney

Barrett is doing

Collins no favors.

Even if she votes

against Barrett, the

whole episode only

serves to remind

voters of her deeply

Susan Collins

unpopular vote for Brett Kavanaugh two

years ago. Collins is mired in the low 40s in polls, a tough place for any

incumbent but particularly bad given Maine's new ranked-choice voting

system, which both parties expect to aid Democratic state House Speaker

Sara Gideon. Time is running out for Collins to change the trajectory of

this race. Tilt Democratic.

Pan Atlantic Research, Oct. 2-6 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Gideon

over Collins 47%-40%, Savage (G) 5%, Linn (I) 2%.

Critical Insights for Bangor Daily News, Sept. 25 - Oct. 4 (LVs) -- General

Election ballot: Gideon over Collins 44%-43%, Savage (G) 2%, Linn (I) 1%.

Data for Progress (D), Sept. 23-28 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Gideon

over Collins 46%-41%, Savage (G) 3%, Linn (I) 1%.

Colby College, Sept. 17-23 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Gideon over

Collins 45%-41%, Linn (I) 5%, Savage (G) 3%.

Michigan. Gary Peters (D), elected 2014 (55%). A poll from the

New York Times showing this a one-point race felt like vindication for Republicans who have been singing James' praises for over a year, and set off alarm bells within Democratic circles. But it's not clear that this race is as competitive as one poll's topline result might suggest. Joe Biden has maintained a healthy lead in the state, and James is barely over-performing President Donald Trump. That's in line with 2018, when James received 45.8 percent against Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, when an average statewide candidate in Michigan

Continued on page 5

4 October 16, 2020

NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH

Continued from page 4 would receive 46.45 percent, according to Inside Elections' Baseline. So as long as Peters can bring undecided Biden voters on board, he should be okay. It helps that Michigan has straight-ticket voting, which should take care of some Biden supporters who don't have an opinion on Peters yet. Peters, one of the more low-key members of the Democratic caucus, also made news for sharing with Elle magazine the personal story of his wife's abortion in the 1980s. Of the three key Rust Belt states, Michigan is the only one that will start processing absentee ballots before Election Day, per new legislation signed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, so we should have a decent picture of where things stand the night polls close. Lean Democratic.

EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press, Oct. 8-12 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Peters over James, 45%-39%.

Reuters/Ipsos, Oct. 7-13 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Peters over James 52%-44%.

New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 6-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Peters over James 43%-42%.

Morning Consult, Oct. 2-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Peters over James 49%-40%.

Minnesota. Tina Smith (DFL), appointed Jan. 2018, elected 2018

special (53%). After flirting with the edges of competitiveness in the wake of the mass protests and unrest originating in Minneapolis, this race remains outside the Senate battlefield. Smith maintains a steady, high-single digit lead over former GOP Rep. Jason Lewis, who doesn't have significant financial resources of his own and is not getting any help from either the Trump campaign, which is being forced to cut back its ad spending, or outside GOP groups which are almost entirely focused on defense. On his own, it's hard to see how Lewis pulls off an upset. Solid Democratic.

SurveyUSA for KAAL-TV, Oct. 1-6 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Smith over Lewis 44%-37%.

Suffolk Univ., Sept. 20-24 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Smith over Lewis 45%-35%.

Montana. Steve Daines (R), elected 2014 (58%). In this consistently

close race there's one guarantee: Steve is going to win. Even though Gov. Steve Bullock is one of Democrats' top recruits this cycle, this probably wouldn't be a neck-and-neck race if not for Trump's struggles at the top of the ticket. If the president could simply win the state by half of his 20-point margin in 2016, Daines would be in fine shape. But Trump's currently leading Joe Biden in the low to mid-single digits. With that narrow margin and Republicans being unable to bury Bullock, Democrats have a shot to win here. Toss-up.

Public Policy Polling (D), Oct. 9-10 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Daines and Bullock tied at 48%.

Emerson College, Oct. 5-7 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Daines over Bullock 52%-43%.

Montana State University Bozeman, Sept. 14-Oct. 2 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Daines over Bullock 49%-47%.

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%). The past

two weeks have featured a whirlwind of developments in this key Senate race. First, Tillis announced he tested positive for coronavirus after attending the White House festivities surrounding the Amy Coney Barrett nomination (Tillis wore a mask for the outside ceremony but was

Nathan Quellette/CQ Roll Call

pictured inside the White House maskless and not social distancing). That same day -- also the day the president was hospitalized with coronavirus -- Cunningham admitted to sending intimate text messages with a woman who was not his wife. Later in the week, the AP reported that Cunningham had carried on an affair with a California political consultant through as late as July of this year, and in a sometimespainful press conference, Cunningham repeatedly dodged questions about whether he had been involved with other women as well. Tillis has begun his star turn as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, attending the Barrett confirmation hearings in person despite receiving his Covid-19 diagnosis less than two weeks prior (he says he's been cleared to do so by his doctor).

Despite all that, it's not clear if the race has fundamentally shifted. Cunningham still maintains a persistent edge over Tillis according to multiple recent public polls, while Joe Biden maintains a similar, though smaller, advantage. Republicans had previously begun to write this race off but have since re-engaged, planning millions of dollars in attack ads focusing on Cunningham's infidelity. Cunningham will be able to respond in kind -- he reported raising $28.3 million in the second quarter, and Democrats are set to outspend Republicans more than 2:1 in the final four weeks of this race. Tilt Democratic.

New York Times/Siena College, Oct. 9-13 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 41%-37%, Bray (L) 4%, Hayes (C) 3%.

Susquehanna Research & Polling Inc. (R) for American Greatness PAC, Oct. 7-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 46%-44%.

Reuters/Ipsos, Oct. 7-13 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 46%-42%.

Monmouth Univ., Oct. 8-11 (LVs) -- General Election ballot: Cunningham over Tillis 49%-44%.

South Carolina. Lindsey Graham (R), elected 2002 (54%), 2008

(58%) and 2014 (55%). Jaime Harrison, the 44-year-old DNC associate

chairman and former

head of the South

Carolina Democratic

Party, made national

news when he broke

the single-quarter

fundraising Senate

fundraising record.

Harrison pulled in

$57 million from the

Jaime Harrison

beginning of July to the end of September,

outpacing the previous record-holder, 2018 Texas Senate candidate Beto

O'Rourke, by $19 million.

Republicans scored a coup of their own when they convinced

Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe to drop out of the race and

endorse Graham. Harrison had been hoping Bledsoe would siphon

off some of the Republican vote, making it easier for him to score a

plurality victory. But Bledsoe, who had no money and was not a real

factor on the campaign trail, will still appear on the ballot, potentially

taking away voters Graham would need, particularly since Democrats

are spending money to boost his profile. Republicans also won a

victory at the U.S. Supreme Court, which reinstated the state's witness

requirement for absentee ballots, which had previously been struck

Continued on page 6



October 16, 2020 5

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