XLS www.stern.nyu.edu
Objective1. To compare how much a firm has returned to its stockholder historically (up to 10 years) with how much it could have returned.2. To provide an assessment of project quality (ROE compared to cost of equity) and stock price performance over the period.3. To provide forecasts of how much cash the firm will have available for stock buybacks in the futureInputs neededFor historical analysis: a. Net Income b. Depreciation, amortization and other non-cash chargesc. Capital expenditures: Please include acquisitions as part of capital expendituresd. Non-cash working capital changesIn entering these numbers, please make sure that you get the signs right (check the comment box on each of these inputs)e. Dividends: Only cash dividends should be shown here (ignore stock dividends)f. Stock Buybacks: Include the cash flow associated with stock buybacks.For project assessment and stock price performance analysisa. Beta: You should really use an average beta over the historical period, but go ahead and use your current beta if you do not have this.b. Book Value of Equity: To compute return on equity. c. Return on the stock: This is the total return you would have made as an investor: It includes price appreciation + dividend yield each yeard. Short term Riskfree rate: The short term government security rate at the start of each year (use the T.Bill rate from the worksheet)e. Return on Stock Market: This is the total return on the stock market each year. You can get the numbers from the historical stocks and T.Bills worksheet.For forecastsa. Expected growth rates in net income, dividends, depreciation, capital expenditures and revenuesb. Working capital as a percent of revenuesc. Debt as a percent of reinvestment, looking forward. As a default, you can use your historical average.OutputHistorical Analysis1. FCFE and Cash Returned each year for the historical period2. Returns on equity, the stock and your required return each year for the historical period3. Averages of both over the entire periodForecasts1. Forecasted FCFE for next 5 years2. Forecasted dividends for next 5 years3. Cash available each year for stock buybacks for next 5 years. ................
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