200-Day Moving Averages - Yardeni Research

Stock Market Indicators: 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 1, 2023

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Moving Averages

1-5

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

6

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Versus 200-dma 7

200-Day Moving Averages

8-19

September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Moving Averages

Figure 1.

5500

5000 S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX

4500

(ratio scale, daily)

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

S&P 500 (4515.8)

1500

50-dma (4471.7)

200-dma (4165.4)

1000

5500

5000

9/1

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500



1000

-16.0% (70)

-9.8% -7.7% (28) (62)

-5.8% (19)

-12.4% (96)

-10.2% (13)

-6.8% (34)

-9.6% (21)

-25.4% (282)

-56.8% (517)

-19.4% -9.9% -5.8% (157) (60) (34)

-7.4% -13.3% (27) (100)

-19.8% -33.9%

(95)

(32)

-5.2% (32)

500

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, but less than 20%, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blue shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

30

25

S&P 500 INDEX (as a percent of 200-day moving average)

20

30 Latest (8.4)

25

20

15

15

10

9/1

10

5

5

0

0



-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-16.0%

-9.8% -7.7% -5.8% -12.4%

-10.2% -6.8% -9.6%

-25.4%

-35

(70)

(28) (62)

(19)

(96)

(13)

(34)

(21)

(282)

-40 -56.8%

-19.4% -9.9% -5.8%

-7.4% -13.3%

-19.8% -33.9%

-5.2%

-40

(517)

(157) (60) (34)

(27)

(100)

(95)

(33)

(32)

-45

-45

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Note: Corrections are declines of 10% or more, while minor ones are 5%-10% (all in blues shades). Bear markets are declines of 20% or more (in red shades). Number of calendar days in parentheses. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

5000

4500

S&P 500

4000 (ratio scale)

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

S&P 500 Moving Averages

5000

9/1

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

S&P 500 Index (4515.77)

1000

50-day moving average (4469.52)

200-day moving average (4160.04)



500

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

1300

1100

S&P 500 TRANSPORATION INDEX (ratio scale)

900

700

500

1300 1100 9/1 900

700

500

300

300

S&P 500 Transportation (975.58) 50-dma (1004.39) 200-dma (953.08)



100

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 2 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Moving Averages

38000 34000 30000

Figure 5.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (ratio scale)

26000

22000

18000

14000

38000

9/1

34000

30000

26000

22000

18000

14000

10000

Dow Jones (34837.71) 50-day moving average (34727.77) 200-day moving average (33771.30)

10000

6000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Haver Analytics.

6000

18000 16000 14000

Figure 6.

DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE (ratio scale)

12000

10000

8000

6000

18000

9/1

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

4000

Dow Jones Transportation Average (15835.58)

50-day moving average (15918.12)

200-day moving average (14665.22)

2000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Haver Analytics.

2000

Page 3 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



17000 16000 15000

Figure 7.

NASDAQ (ratio scale, daily)

14000

13000

12000

11000

10000

9000

8000

7000

S&P 500 Moving Averages

Nasdaq (14031.8) 50-dma (13842.9) 200-dma (12296.3)

6000

2020

2021

2022

Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Haver Analytics.

55000 45000

Figure 8.

WILSHIRE 5000 (ratio scale)

35000

25000

9/1 2023

17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000

8000

7000

6000

55000 45000 5/30 35000

25000

15000

15000

Wilshire 5000 (42300.79) 50-day moving average (40555.87) 200-day moving average (39567.83)

5000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Haver Analytics.

5000

Page 4 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 9.

3200

2800 S&P 400 (ratio scale)

2400 2000

1600

1200

S&P 500 Moving Averages

3200 2800 9/1 2400 2000

1600

1200

800

800

S&P 400 (2669.68)

50-day moving average (2646.80)

200-day moving average (2547.20)



400

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 10.

1550

1350 S&P 600 (ratio scale)

1150 950

750

550

1550 1350 9/1 1150 950

750

550

350

350

S&P 600 (1239.34) 50-day moving average (1231.14) 200-day moving average (1201.71)



150

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

Figure 11.

7000

6000

S&P 500*

5000 (price indexes)

4000

3000

HEALTH CARE

9/1

2000

1800

9/1

1600

1400

1200

1000

2000

2020 425

2021

2022

2023

2024

375 COMMUNICATION SERVICES

325

275

225

9/1

175

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

800 1200

INDUSTRIALS

1000 9/1

800

600

125

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2400

2100 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

1800

1500 9/1

1200

900

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

400 5000

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

4000

9/1

3000

2000

600 1000

2020

2021

2022

900 CONSUMER STAPLES

800

700

600

500

2020

2021

2022

1150

950 ENERGY

750

550

350

2023

2024

9/1

2023

2024

9/1

1000

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

800

MATERIALS

700 600

9/1

500

400

300

2020

2021

2022

2023

200 2024

400

REAL ESTATE

350

300

250 9/1

200

150

2020

2021

2022

2023

950

850 750

FINANCIALS

650

550

9/1

450

350

250 2020

2021

2022

2023

200-day moving average * S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor's.

2024 2024

2020

2021

2022

2023

150 2024

475

UTILITIES

425

375

9/1

325

275

2020

2021

2022

2023

225

2024

Page 6 / September 1, 2023 / 200-Day Moving Averages

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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