PDF Dow Jones Industrial Average

[Pages:9]MARCH 31, 2015

With a choppier than average quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes out the period off 46.95 points or -0.26%.

CONTRIBUTOR Jamie Farmer Managing Director Index Investment Strategy jamie.farmer@

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Q1 2015 Report Card

At A Glance

At Quarter End - The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Q1 2015 at 17,776.12 ? down 46.95 points or -0.26% from the close of 2014. In comparison, the DJIA's average Q1 return over the prior 30 years is 3.18%.

Leader & Laggard ? Boeing Co. (BA) contributed the most to the Average's advance; American Express (AXP) was the leading detractor.

Industry Performance - Consumer Services was the best performing industry, Financials the worst.

Component Changes ? Apple Inc. (AAPL) replaced AT&T Inc. (T) as of the opening on Thursday, March 19, 2015.

Choppy ? Q1 recorded 20 daily moves of greater than 1% (up or down). Best Day:

o In Points & Percent ? up 323.35 points or 1.84% on January 8th as the fall in crude oil stabilized and central bankers affirmed a cautious stance regarding rate increases.

Worst Day: o In Points ? down 332.79 points (or -1.85%) on March 10th as concerns about a strong US dollar, tighter banking rules and uncertainty in Europe weighed on equity prices. o In Percent ? 1.86% (or -331.34 points) on January 5th as traders returned to the first full week after the holidays only to see crude oil fall below $50/barrel.

INDEX INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

Performance Statistics

Long Term Performance:

Q1

1 Year

-0.26%

8.01%

3 Year 34.54%

5 Year 63.74%

7 Year 44.96%

10 Year 69.24%

March 31, 2015

Historical Annual Performance:

2014

2013

2012

7.52%

26.50%

7.26%

2011 5.53%

2010 11.02%

2009 18.82%

2008 -33.84%

2007 6.43%

2006 16.29%

2005 -0.61%

Recent Quarter by Quarter Performance:

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

History Since Inception:

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results. 2

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

March 31, 2015

New Closing Highs

o The DJIA logged 4 new closing highs in Q1 2015, the last of which came on March 2nd as the Average gained 155+ points to settle at 18,288.63.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Performance vs. Moving Averages

o The DJIA ended March below the 50 day moving average and above the 200 day average. o The DJIA spent the entirety of Q1 above the 200 moving average, but languished below the 50 day average

for most of January and about 1/3 of the trading days in March.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results. 3

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

Quarterly & Annual Returns since 1985

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 Average

Q1 -0.26% -0.72% 11.25% 8.14% 6.41% 4.11% -13.30% -7.55% -0.87% 3.66% -2.59% -0.92% -4.19% 3.82% -8.42% -5.00% 6.59% 11.27% 2.10% 9.19% 8.43% -3.15% 4.06% 2.10% 10.64% -1.67% 5.77% 2.54% 21.56% 17.58% 4.56% 3.18%

Q2 -

2.24% 2.27% -2.51% 0.77% -9.97% 11.01% -7.44% 8.53% 0.37% -2.18% 0.75% 12.43% -11.16% 6.31% -4.34% 12.11% 1.73% 16.55% 1.21% 9.58% -0.30% 2.36% 2.57% -0.24% 6.41% 6.38% 7.73% 4.94% 4.08% 5.42% 2.92%

Q3 -

1.29% 1.48% 4.32% -12.09% 10.37% 14.98% -4.40% 3.63% 4.74% 2.86% -3.40% 3.22% -17.87% -15.76% 1.94% -5.78% -12.39% 3.55% 4.02% 5.11% 6.02% 1.11% -1.41% 3.78% -14.86% 10.36% -1.34% 7.35% -6.61% -0.51% -0.21%

Q4 -

4.58% 9.56% -2.48% 11.95% 7.32% 7.37% -19.12% -4.54% 6.71% 1.41% 6.97% 12.71% 9.87% 13.27% 1.28% 11.22% 17.07% -0.47% 9.62% 6.85% -0.23% 5.60% 0.90% 5.04% 7.39% 2.24% 2.63% -25.32% 7.26% 16.41% 4.44%

Annual -0.26% 7.52% 26.50% 7.26% 5.53% 11.02% 18.82% -33.84% 6.43% 16.29% -0.61% 3.15% 25.32% -16.76% -7.10% -6.18% 25.22% 16.10% 22.64% 26.01% 33.45% 2.14% 13.72% 4.17% 20.32% -4.34% 26.96% 11.85% 2.26% 22.58% 27.66% 10.47%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

March 31, 2015

4

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

March 31, 2015

Daily Moves of 1% or Greater

o The first quarter of 2015 witnessed a greater than average number of daily returns equal to or greater than 1%: with 20 such moves during the period, 2015 has experienced the most such swings since the Financial Crisis of 2009 when 42 similar moves were recorded.

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 Average

Q1 20 11 4 5 11 14 42 29 4 4 5 15 29 21 24 28 24 16 19 15 5 7 8 6 17 15 14 24 17 14 11 15

Q2 4 10 17 12 28 30 18 9 11 13 9 19 29 21 32 22 16 17 7 4 10 3 9 17 13 12 20 18 17 6 15

Q3 4 4 6 34 18 17 37 24 7 3 10 13 42 28 14 18 30 18 12 3 4 3 10 10 26 10 15 19 15 3 15

Q4 17 6 11 32 9 19 50 19 2 6 11 10 36 24 27 19 23 26 9 5 10 1 6 12 19 10 11 42 10 11 16

Annual 20 36 24 39 89 69 108 134 56 24 27 45 71 128 97 101 83 85 80 43 17 31 15 31 56 73 46 70 96 56 31 62

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

5

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

March 31, 2015

Q1 2015 Point Contribution: Who Helped, Who Didn't

By Industry:

o Consumer Services made the largest point contribution for the quarter (123.55 points) followed by Healthcare (112.19 points) and Industrials (67.33 points).

o After an exceptionally strong Q4 '14 (during which the sector added over 506 points), Financials reversed course and detracted the most from the DJIA in Q1 (down 109.25 points). Telecommunications (-98.24) and Oil & Gas (-94.79) rounded out the bottom three.

o Vs. 2014 ? Healthcare and Consumer Services were the 2nd and 3rd biggest contributors in 2014 and their performance thus far in '15 continues that trend. As noted, Financials made the largest contribution last year but kicks off 2015 as the worst performing DJIA industry.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

6

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

March 31, 2015

By Company:

o Boeing (BA) was the leading performer in Q1 with a contribution of 127.66 points for the period. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) took the number two spot while Disney (DIS) rounded out the top 3.

o American Express (AXP) fared the worst in Q1, removing 96.75 points as investors reacted to the loss of some large partners. Caterpillar (CAT) and Procter and Gamble (PG) were the second and third biggest detractors.

o AT&T (T), replaced by Apple (AAPL) in March, contributed nothing to the Q1 performance of the Average ? contributing neither points gained or lost is a fairly rare occurrence.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

7

Dow Jones Industrial Average ? Q1 2015 Report Card

March 31, 2015

Leaders for the period are in green, laggards in red:

SYMBOL

NAME

INDUSTRY

'14 Close Q1 '15 Close

AAPL Apple Inc.

Technology

$ 110.38 $ 124.43

AXP

American Express Co.

BA

Boeing Co.

CAT

Caterpillar Inc.

Financials Industrials Industrials

$

93.04 $

78.12

$ 129.98 $ 150.08

$

91.53 $

80.03

CSCO Cisco Systems Inc.

Technology

$

27.82 $

27.53

CVX

Chevron Corp.

DD

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co.

DIS

Walt Disney Co.

GE

General Electric Co.

Oil & Gas

$

Basic Materials

$

Consumer Services $

Industrials

$

112.18 $ 73.94 $ 94.19 $ 25.27 $

104.98 71.47 104.89 24.81

GS

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Financials

$ 193.83 $ 187.97

HD

Home Depot Inc.

Consumer Services $ 104.97 $ 113.61

IBM

Intl Business Machines Corp.

INTC Intel Corp.

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

Technology Technology Health Care

$ 160.44 $ 160.50

$

36.29 $

31.27

$ 104.57 $ 100.60

JPM

JP Morgan Chase & Co.

Financials

$

62.58 $

60.58

KO MCD MMM MRK

Coca-Cola Co. McDonald's Corp. 3M Co. Merck & Co Inc.

Consumer Goods $

Consumer Services $

Industrials

$

Health Care

$

42.22 $ 93.70 $ 164.32 $ 56.79 $

40.55 97.44 164.95 57.48

MSFT Microsoft Corp.

Technology

$

46.45 $

40.66

NKE

NIKE Inc. B

PFE

Pfizer Inc.

PG

Procter & Gamble

T

AT&T Inc.**

Consumer Goods $

Health Care

$

Consumer Goods $

Telecommunications $

96.15 $ 31.15 $ 91.09 $ 33.59 $

100.33 34.79 81.94 32.65

TRV

Travelers Cos Inc.

Financials

$ 105.85 $ 108.13

UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc.

UTX

United Technologies Corp.

V

Visa Inc.*

VZ

Verizon Communications Inc.

Health Care

$

Industrials

$

Financials

$

Telecommunications $

101.09 $ 115.00 $ 65.55 $ 46.78 $

118.29 117.20 65.41 48.63

WMT Wal-Mart Stores

Consumer Services $

85.88 $

82.25

XOM Exxon Mobil Corp.

Oil & Gas

$

92.45 $

85.00

Change 12.73% -16.04% 15.46% -12.56% -1.04% -6.42% -3.34% 11.36% -1.82% -3.02% 8.23% 0.04% -13.83% -3.80% -3.20% -3.96% 3.99% 0.38% 1.22% -12.48% 4.35% 11.69% -10.05% -2.80% 2.15% 17.01% 1.91% -0.21% 3.95% -4.23% -8.06%

TOTAL

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is not an indication of future results.

*-Visa price reflects 4 for 1 stock split effective on March 19th. **-AT&T was replaced by Apple effective at the opening on March 19th.

JAN NA

-79.31 98.83 -74.24 -9.31 -61.97 -17.53 -20.74 -8.86 -137.56 -3.53 -45.79 -20.87 -28.45 -52.66 -6.74 -8.09 -12.97 22.41 -38.85 -25.05 0.64 -43.67 -4.30 -19.46 33.14 -1.41 -46.82 -6.87 -5.78 -32.30

-658.12

FEB NA

5.78 35.19 18.82 20.20 26.65 42.64 84.26 13.49 111.61 66.34 55.42 1.35 15.22 44.31 13.68 41.49 40.78 -11.17 22.16 31.27 19.72 5.39 10.53 29.67 47.39 45.79 105.32 24.02 -6.74 7.19

967.76

MAR -26.96 -23.22 -6.36 -18.76 -12.90 -11.35 -42.11 4.43 -7.79 -12.78 -7.94 -9.07 -12.62 -12.48 -4.79 -17.67 -9.27 -24.14 -6.85 -20.98 21.32 3.12 -20.94 -6.23 4.08 29.51 -31.03 -33.44 -5.49 -10.86 -23.00

Q1 TOTAL -26.96 -96.75 127.66 -74.18 -2.02 -46.67 -17.00 67.94 -3.16 -38.72 54.87 0.56 -32.14 -25.71 -13.14 -10.74 24.13 3.66 4.39 -37.68 27.55 23.48 -59.22 0.00 14.29 110.04 13.35 25.07 11.65 -23.38 -48.12

-356.58

-46.95

8

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