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West Coast PublishingPolicy UpdatesThanks for using our Policy, LD, Public Forum, and Extemp Materials.Please do not share this material with anyone outside of your schoolincluding via print, email, dropbox, google drive, the web, etc. We’re a small non-profit trying to provide work for college students.Contact us at jim@ ***Case & Advantage Answers***A2: CubaAlan Gross CP – SQ Not ActingObama is not acting to release Alan Gross, who has lost everything for his government. Although he hasn’t given up on us, we are allowing him to languish in a Cuban prisonRuth Marcus, Editorial writer, December 3, 2013, “Alan Gross, left behind in Cuba,” Washington Post, Accessed 12/10/2013, Obama administration says it has been doing its utmost to secure Gross’s release, enlisting everyone from the?pope?to Latin American leaders. The Gross family begs to differ.?In a letter to President Obama released Tuesday, Alan Gross outlined his ordeal and described his sense of being “abandoned” by the government he served. “I have lost almost everything in the last four years, most of all time with my family,” Gross wrote. “I have had to ask my daughters not to visit because I cannot bear them seeing me like this, a shadow of my former self, surrounded by men with machine guns.” During his imprisonment, Gross’ older daughter battled breast cancer, then walked down the aisle for her wedding without her father. “I still want to believe that my government values my life and my service, and that a U.S. passport means something,” Gross wrote. “I refuse to accept that my country would leave me behind.” Buttressing Gross’s plea, 66 senators, led by Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy, wrote to Obama last month to urge that he take “whatever steps are in the national interest to obtain his release.” Obama refuses to deal with Cuba on a swap: Alan Gross for the Cuban FiveRuth Marcus, Editorial writer, December 3, 2013, “Alan Gross, left behind in Cuba,” Washington Post, Accessed 12/10/2013, administration has been demanding Gross’s unconditional release, which would be nice but is not happening. Instead, Cuban officials have made clear that their price for a deal centers on a group called the?Cuban Five?— Cuban intelligence officers?convicted in Miami in 2001?of being foreign agents and related offenses. One of the five has served his sentence and returned to Cuba; another is eligible for parole in February. The Obama administration has insisted that the Cuban Five cannot be part of any Gross-related deal; such a linkage, the administration argues, would create a false equivalence between the five (acknowledged spies, although Cuba insists their activities were directed at Cuban exiles) and Gross (a contractor, not a spy, although that nicety might be lost on the Cuban government, given that the U.S. goal is regime change). One problem with the no-false-equivalence stance is that it leaves Gross in the ironic position that he would have been a better candidate for a trade had he been a spy. Another is that it ignores a rich history of swaps, not all spy-for-spy.Alan Gross CP – Should Offer a QPQThe U.S. should offer a QPQ to Cuba: relaxing embargo for political prisonersFareed Zakaria, CNN Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Give capitalism a chance to change Cuba,” Global Public Square (CNN), Access 12/14/2013The best path forward for Washington is one that has been recommended by many experts, from Jorge Casteneda, the former Mexican foreign minister to Human Rights Watch. The United States should shift from a policy of regime change in Cuba, which has not worked, to one that promotes reform and human rights aggressively.President Obama should offer the Cuban government a series of steps that would relax restrictions on trade and travel with Cuba – but only if they are matched by real economic and political reforms in Cuba. Let the Cuban people know, for example, that if its government were to free all political prisoners, the United States would be willing to relax the embargo.Executive Order CP - SolvencyObama could lift most of the embargo without CongressBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, month, Obama went to Miami and wisely?told?a gathering of Cuban-Americans that U.S. policy toward their homeland “doesn’t make sense.” Yet his administration’s easing of?restrictions on travel and commerce?has basically just restored the status quo under Bill Clinton’s administration, before?George W. Bush?clamped down from 2001 to 2009. Obama could do much more before bumping up against the?limits to his executive authority?set by Congress, which has made the dismantlement of the U.S. embargo on Cuba contingent on significant progress toward democratic governance.Anti-Blackness Links – Economic ReformsSlavery continues to leave its mark on Cuba by shaping the distribution of wealth and opportunities of new reforms. Tourism and investment might be good for “Cuba”, but not black CubansPortia Siegelbaum, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “Cuba economic reforms hurting the poor, experts warn,” CBS News, , Accessed 12/17/2013University of Havana Professor and historian Esteban Morales agrees and he points out that "blacks came to Cuba as slaves while whites came as colonizers" and that heritage has left a permanent mark on society despite the revolutionary government's creation of free education and health care for all along with other efforts to bring equality to society. Now, the opening of the economy is not affecting all of Cuba's 11 million people equally, instead, he notes it is hitting "the poorest sectors of the population." In order to get the economy moving and raise productivity, the government must take mercantile measures that are "difficult," Morales said. Tourism and the creation of corporations have not benefited black Cubans as much as whites, although statistics are hard to come by since the census does not focus on race in its questionnaire. Morales blames historic realities for this situation, noting that before 1959 "there was a very unequal system of wealth distribution." Ever since Cuba was a colony, he notes, there also existed a "mass of poor whites." However, Morales insists that "riches never belonged to the black or mixed-race population." That means, he says, that "historically there has been a poor sector of society and within that, blacks have been the most disadvantaged."Cuban economic reforms are entrench race and class inequalities. They have not restructured access denied to black Cubans. This resurrects pre-revolutionary oppressionPortia Siegelbaum, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “Cuba economic reforms hurting the poor, experts warn,” CBS News, , Accessed 12/17/2013There is even a wholesale produce market operating on the outskirts of Havana as a supplier to?private restaurant owners?and push cart vendors. But there's a flip side to the opening that worries Lopez-Levy and other observers. "I'm very, very worried about one specific issue – the possibility that class and race overlap in the context of a mixed economy because whatever you might think about the previous system, it works a lot on the basis of consensus and there was always a concern for those left with the most difficult situation or the most disadvantages," he said. In the old system, Lopez-Levy noted there was a safety net below which no one fell. The safety net itself might have been lowered at certain points such as during the economic crisis of the 1990s but it existed. Now he sees investments are being concentrated in certain areas or neighborhoods that traditionally have been middle or upper class and predominantly white. These are neighborhoods where more wealth is concentrated, where attractive homes inherited from pre-revolutionary affluent families are easier to convert into bed & breakfasts or upscale restaurants and where residents are more likely to receive help from relatives with money living abroad since white exiles tend to be more well-to-do than black ones. This, he said, resurrects pre-1959 class and race inequalities. Because there is a housing shortage in Cuba – 12 percent of the housing in Havana has been officially declared structurally unsound – people tend to live in the same place their parents and grandparents did before them. Upward mobility in education and careers has almost never meant that people were able to improve their living conditions. "I have seen some neighborhoods where the, particularly rural and black areas, where mainly black Cubans live and I think that it would be wise, nationalistic, patriotic to think about the effect the reforms could have on these people," he said, pointing out that these people have been among the staunchest supporters of the revolution.Economic development in Cuba is unevenly distributedPortia Siegelbaum, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “Cuba economic reforms hurting the poor, experts warn,” CBS News, , Accessed 12/17/2013The much heralded opening of a still-limited private sector in Cuba by President Raul Castro is being widely welcomed by Cubans who expect the pragmatic "younger" brother of their long-time former leader Fidel Castro to lead them out of an economic hole with its consumer goods shortages, crumbling housing and salaries with near zero purchasing power. And U.S. visitors to Cuba are often astonished by what seems to be an explosion of private enterprise and the emergence of not just a middle class but an affluent people. However, not everyone in Cuban society is benefiting equally as the government loosens controls. Arturo Lopez-Levy, lecturer at the University of Denver and a Cuban American, positively views the steps being taken. "I would say that if there is a priority that Cuban policies and politics should have it is economic development today, economic development tomorrow, economic development the day after tomorrow," he told CBS News during a recent visit to the island.Rice Exports Disadvantage / PIC - LinkLifting the embargo increases U.S. rice exportsSteve Barnes, Staff Writer, December 12, 2013, “After five decades, it's time to resume trade with Cuba,” Baxter Bulletin, , Accessed 12/13/2013The trade embargo, you will remember, was imposed by President Kennedy, irritated that Fidel, having deposed a corrupt and repressive regime, declared himself a Marxist and began confiscating U.S. property. (Kennedy, who liked a stogie, acted only after directing aides to buy up all the Cuban cigars they could lay their hands on). Things went quickly from dumb to worse: The Kennedy crew tried to overthrow Castro with the doomed Bay of Pigs invasion and then undertook various assassination plots against him, which the intended victim became aware of; and then came the missiles of October. That was a half-century ago. For almost as long successive members of Congress from East Arkansas have complained that the embargo denies their farmers a potential bonanza. A Cuba in need of rice represents “an awesome opportunity” for the Delta, a spokesman for Rep. Rick Crawford said this week, quickly adding that some “human rights issues” need addressing.Sex Tourism ExtensionIncreasing American tourism to Cuba feeds the sex tourism industryKen Hiebert, Staff Writer, August 17, 2013, “A Tourist’s Look at the Cuban Tourism Industry,” Havana Times, Accessed 12/13/2013, tour guide was personable and she was willing to be quite frank. She described the tourism of the ’90s as mainly sex tourism. When a choir member asked her why it seemed that Che Guevera was more popular than Castro she started out by saying, “He’s dead.” Then she went on to tell us of his important role in the revolutionary struggle and in the first years after the revolution. She ended by saying, “…and he was good looking.” We had an amusing experience with what I think the Cubans call “secretism.” The same Cuban man came to a series of our concerts. One of our choir leaders approached him and asked him who he was. ?It turned out that he was the Cuban official in charge of our tour and he was the supervisor of our tour guide. Why they couldn’t have said that from the beginning is not clear to me. In any case we had a great time with the two of them. They heard our songs so many times that by the end of our week they were both singing with us. Whatever stresses are placed on Cuba now could be multiplied if Americans are allowed to travel to Cuba in greater numbers. A television documentary here quoted a high ranking Cuban official to the effect that Cuba would need many more golf courses to accommodate an expanded tourist industry.The Cuban government uses exploitative images of Afrocuban women to capitalize on tourismInès Lecland, Staff Writer, October 13, 2013, “Prostitution: Cuba’s Real Tourist Attraction,” Political Bouillon, Accessed 12/13/2013, ’s model primarily denounced the exploitation of humans in the capitalist world; yet the exploitation of women has been prominent in his own country. The?Cuban government promoted and facilitated tourism, and enticed the international population through the?linking of the country with the image of a sensual and immoral Afrocuban woman. So while policies are put forth to eradicate the issue, contradictory realities encourage and facilitate the growth of this sector. Only recently has the government tried to eradicate prostitution, after many years of denying that it is even a problem. The rapid growth of prostitution and the sex tourism industry has become indicative of a larger social problem; one which?represents the crumbling values and institutions of socialism, as economic disparities rise alongside racial inequalities. In the case of prostitution, the social reality has exposed the flaws of the once idealized communist model. It is also important to note that prostitution in a corrupt and poor country only decreases its chance of further?development. As a black market develops, it impedes the growth of society as a whole; it brings no addition to GDP, it?will decrease the likelihood of?social services for the women. With a crumbling social system, Cuba must address the issue of prostitution as fast as possible in order to develop into a more prosperous and more egalitarian country.Cuba Violates Human RightsCuba just arrested over 100 human rights protestorsLatin American Herald Tribune, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Up to 150 Arrested in Cuba on Global Human Rights Day,” , Accessed 12/13/2013As many as 150 dissidents were arrested while trying to mark UN International Human Rights Day, the opposition Cuban Human Rights and National Reconciliation Commission said Wednesday. “As a preliminary figure, (there were) between 100 and 150 people arrested, not counting other forms of harassment or acts of vandalism. There was a lot of police violence all across the country,” commission spokesman Elizardo Sanchez told Efe by telephone. He said that the repression was particularly apparent in the provinces of Havana, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba, Villa Clara and Pinar del Rio, and he added that the group continues “compiling data” and verifying the names of those arrested on Tuesday. Sanchez said that authorities cut all the cellphone and landline telephone connections of the dissidents and many remained out of contact, thus making it difficult to get definitive information about incidents of repression. International Human Rights Day in Cuba was marked by temporary arrests and acts of harassment against dissidents, mainly against the Ladies in White.A2: Reforms – Just Regime SupportCuban reforms are just the modernization of socialism to line government pocketsJacqueline Alemany, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “Post-handshake, Cuba embargo debate heats up again,” CBS News, , Accessed 12/19/2013Opponents, however, argue that these reforms are simply a modernization of socialism. Mauricio Claver-Carone, who sits on the board of directors of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, believes that if we increase supply to Cuba, it is not the consumer who will prosper but the Castro regime. "Their interest is in lining their pockets," Claver-Carone told CBS News. "We need to maintain the pressure."A2: Solvency – Regime Change Approach Hampers EffectivenessRegime change is a major stumbling block to better U.S.-Cuban relationsBBC News, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Cuba's Raul Castro calls for 'civilised relations' with US,” , Accessed 12/22/2013President Castro said the US should drop its demand for regime change on the communist-run island. That would allow both sides to continue work on improving relations, he said. Mr Castro's comments follow a public handshake with President Obama at the memorial ceremony for Nelson Mandela in South Africa earlier this month. In a rare public speech, Mr Castro said Cuban and American officials had met several times over the last year to discuss practical matters, such as immigration and the re-establishment of a postal service. That shows that relations can be civilised, Mr Castro explained. But he warned: "If we really want to make progress in bilateral relations, we have to learn to respect each other's differences and get used to living peacefully with them. Otherwise, no. We are ready for another 55 years like the last." The US broke off relations with in 1961 after the revolution and maintains an economic embargo against the island.A2: GITMO – Status Quo SolvesOver half of GITMO detainees will soon be releasedNedra Pickler, Staff Writer, December 18, 2013, “Defense Bill Gives Obama Rare Guantanamo Victory,” ABC News, Accessed 12/22/2013, to half the terror suspects held at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay could be closer to heading home under a bipartisan deal reached in Congress that gives President Barack Obama a rare victory in his fight to close the prison. The deal would lift the most rigid restrictions Congress previously imposed on detainee transfers overseas and is part of a broad compromise defense bill awaiting final passage in the Senate this week. The House approved the measure last Thursday. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin said the compromise could have a dramatic impact on the 160 detainees still being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. "About half of the detainees would be detainees that could be transferred to their third-world countries from which they come," Levin told reporters. "About half of the detainees would remain in Guantanamo because of the prohibition on transferring them to the United States for detention and for trial."The new National Defense Authorization Act eases restrictions on prisoner transfers from GITMOACLU, Staff Writer, December 20, 2013, “Senate Eases Transfer Restrictions for Guantánamo Detainees,” American Civil Liberties Union, Accessed 12/22/2013, Senate late last night passed the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2014, which will ease transfer restrictions for detainees currently held at the military detention camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, most of whom have been held without charge or trial for over a decade. The bill, which passed the House of Representatives last week, cleared the Senate by a vote of 84-15. The improved transfer provisions were sponsored by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin and were strongly supported by the White House and the Defense Department.? "This is a big step forward for meeting the goal of closing Guantánamo and ending indefinite detention. For the first time ever, Congress is making it easier, rather than harder, for the Defense Department to close Guantánamo – and this win only happened because the White House and Defense Secretary worked hand in hand with the leadership of the congressional committees," said Christopher Anders, senior legislative counsel at the ACLU’s Washington Legislative Office. "After years of a blame-game between Congress and the White House, both worked together to clear away obstacles to transferring out of Guantánamo the vast majority of detainees who have never been charged with a crime."A2: GITMO – Terrorism Link30% of ex-detainees return to terrorismJ.D. Gordon, retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-09, December 20, 2013, “As US sends Guantanamo detainees back to their homes, could terror attacks rise?,” , , Accessed 12/22/2013According to U.S. intelligence reports, nearly 30% of ex-Gitmo detainees, or about 200 men, have returned to terrorism.? Al-Shihri was not the only one to make a name for himself.? According to a Fox News?exclusive report?by Catherine Herridge, Libya’s Sufian Bin Qumu was on the ground in Benghazi on the night of the U.S. Consulate attack. Abdullah Gulam Rasoul became the Taliban’s operational commander in southern Afghanistan.? Abdullah Mehsud directed a suicide attack on Pakistan’s Minister of the Interior in 2007. Abdallah Saleh Al Ajmi became a suicide bomber in Iraq, killing 13 in Mosul on Easter Sunday 2008.A2: MexicoA2: Mexican Economy The Mexican economy is in a revival stageThe Economist, Staff Writer, November 24, 2013, “From darkness, dawn,” , Accessed 12/14/2013Mexico has form in turning triumph to disaster, and could yet do so again. Its economy remains dependent on the fortunes of the United States, and financial crises in Europe make investors jittery. Promised reforms will depend on persuading entrenched interests to accept them. Corruption and bad government, especially at the local level, may cause good initiatives to fall at the last hurdle. And the drug war is by no means over. But Mexico deserves a fresh look—not least because its economy is revving up, as the?next article?explains.A2: Oil Investment / ReformsEven if reforms pass, secondary legislation and timid investors means investment can’t happen until at least 2015The Economist, Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Oil's well that ends well; Reforms in Mexico,” p. 44.The potential benefit from the reform will depend on the strength of secondary legislation early next year that will specify, among other things, what contracts will be offered for which type of oil or gasfield, and what royalties and taxes the government will take. Potential investors will want to see how trustworthy two revamped energy regulators are before committing to big contracts. And the contracts may well require the imprimatur of the Supreme Court. Outside investment is unlikely to flow until 2015 at the earliest.PEMEX investment won’t work: no benefits for 5 years and poor regulationNick Snow, OGJ Washington Editor, December 19, 2013, “Mexico to temper expectations as it implements energy reforms,” Oil & Gas Journal, , Accessed 12/21/2013“Independence is a major issue,” Ochoa conceded. “Upstream and downstream regulators must have it. They will be allowed to keep up to 3 years of their budgets in a trust fund so they can keep operations consistent. The biggest change will be that regulation will move out of Pemex.” Transparency also will be essential, the speakers agreed. “The industry welcomes it across the whole process,” said Pinon. “It already has to share a lot of data. Good governance where it operates also is important. I think Mexico has gone through a major cultural change which makes this possible.” Ochoa said, “There’s a full commitment to transparency in this administration. We looked at how other governments do it. More important, the Mexican people want it.” Outside companies should be able to book their reserves from joint ventures, he continued. Goldwyn added, “If they can’t, they won’t invest.” He said Mexico will need to manage expectations. “There are indications benefits won’t accrue for 3-5 years, yet the government went ahead anyway because it felt it was necessary. These reforms, while impressive, won’t do the entire job, but there’s no turning back now.”It takes a while for oil revenue to flow and oil dependence limits economic growth in the interimJude Webber, Staff Writer, December 20, 2013, “Christmas cheer for Mexico,” beyondbrics (Financial Times blog), , Accessed 12/21/2013Don’t let’s get carried away on a tide of euphoria. As S&P rightly noted, Mexico’s reform won’t deliver overnight. Even though it is planning to save more windfall oil reserves than ever before – up to 10 per cent of GDP – until the investment dollars start flowing, its state finances remain very dependent on oil. And though oil contributes about a third of the budget, the non-oil tax base is only a measly 9-10 per cent of GDP. So when it comes to both implementing the energy reform and tax changes, it’s all about delivery.Investment is not guaranteed. PEMEX is perceived as shady and ineffectiveE. Eduardo Castillo, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Mexico's President Signs Historic Energy Reform,” ABC News, , Accessed 12/22/2013According to Pemex estimates, $60 billion a year in investment is needed to tap into news fields, more than double of what Pemex spends today. Experts and skeptics are still wary about whether Mexico has the ability to regulate these private contracts in a fair manner. While Pemex is seen as a national symbol, Mexicans also perceive it as backward and shady. It is dominated by a union headed by the powerful Carlos Romero Deschamps, whose family has run into some scandals for showing off its ostentatious lifestyle. The new laws kick out union representatives from Pemex's board of directors.A2: Renewables / Expanding NowMexico is substantially expanding wind energy development nowRenewable Energy World, Editors, December 04, 2013, “Latin America Report: Gauging Mexico's Wind Energy Market,” , Accessed 12/17/2013To the south, though, is another country and market that's also displaying good growth in wind energy. Mexico has added an average of 300 MW annually for the past four years and should tally nearly 1.6 GW overall next year, representing three percent of the grid capacity,?according to a presenter?at last month's Renewable Energy World North America/Power-Gen International Conference in Orlando, Florida. Mexico's wind energy is largely concentrated in the Oaxaca state with "very good class 6 and class 7 winds," meaning areas with wind energy density of 600-1600+ W/m2?at 50 meters, though good winds can be found in Baja California and Tamauilipas, said Agustin Valdivia of MPR Associates. Gamesa and Acciona dominate the market though GE is seeking to expand there. The nation's wind energy development pipeline was around 2.5 GW at the end of last year, he noted.A2: VenezuelaSolvency Answers – Maduro Will Say ‘No’Maduro is wholly ineffective and hates the U.S. He will continue to institute Chavez policiesThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 9, 2013, “A country divided,” venezuelas-local-elections, Accessed 12/10/2013Mr Maduro, too, faces difficult questions. A burgeoning economic crisis requires urgent solutions. Annual inflation is over 50% and many staple products, including milk, flour and toilet paper, are difficult to obtain. Power cuts are frequent and violent crime is at record levels. Short of foreign reserves and with a massive fiscal deficit, the government is expected soon to announce another major devaluation of the currency, whose official value is ten times what it fetches on the black market. Officially, the government proclaims itself the victim of an economic war waged by the ‘fascist’ opposition and its allies in Washington, DC. Mr Maduro’s proposed solution is to accelerate the implementation of Chávez’ radical statist agenda. Some think that with the elections out of the way he will be freer to seek a more pragmatic solution to the crisis, including a rapprochement with the private sector. The alternative could be severe social unrest and a further crackdown on dissent***Disadvantage Updates***ChinaRelations Links – Latin AmericaChina and Latin American substantially expanded political engagement in 2013Yang Yi, Editor, December 13, 2013, “Yearender: China, LatAm move toward deeper mutual trust,” Xinhua News, Accessed 12/17/2013, and Latin America have moved toward deeper mutual trust and cooperation in the year of 2013 thanks to exchange of top-level visits, opening a new horizon for bilateral relationship and contributing to strengthen South-South cooperation. Frequent exchange of visits by leaders of China and Latin American countries throughout the year demonstrated both sides' willingness in enhancing cooperation. Chinese President Xi Jinping in June embarked on a tour of Mexico, Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago, expressing his willingness to deepen practical cooperation with those countries.Economy/Trade Links – Latin America TradeChina-LAC trade expanded by a factor of 21 over the last 12 yearsChris Carter, Staff Writer, December 03, 2013, “Economy: China and Latin America Increase Bilateral Trade By A Factor of 21,” Pulse Merica, , Accessed 12/19/2013Trade between China and Latin America increased by a?factor of 21?in the last 12 years. From a base of US$12 bn in 2000, trade rose to reach US$250bn in 2012. Costa Rica’s minister of trade,?Anabel González, noted the “impressiveness” of these statistics. He emphasized, however, that there remains a need to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers in order to further increase trade between the two regions. González revealed the data during the?7th annual business summit?between China, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The meetings, which are being held in Costa Rica, were attended by more than 800 businesses. “The construction of a favorable business environment must be accompanied by actions that, like this summit, facilitate knowledge and mutual understanding, and that result in an increase, diversification, and sophistication of trade flows,” González said.Economy/Trade Links – Latin America (Food)China has extensive relations based on food-based economic engagement in Latin AmericaElian Peltier, Editor, December 5, 2013, “Latin America — An Opportunity China Does Not Want to Miss,” The Global Journalist, , Accessed 12/19/2013Trade between China and?LAC?countries?increased?by 21 times between 2000 and 2012. The growth mainly includes imports of primary products, such as soy and other grains, mining activities and oil. Announced three weeks ago during the Third Plenary Session of 18th Communist Party of China’s Central Committee, China’s new trade policy based on more liberalization should favor the impetus. Already in June, Chinese investors and?LAC?countries organized the first China-LAC?Agricultural Ministers Forum, which established a food reserve and a $50 million fund for eight research and development centers in the region. “In Latin America, China’s food-related engagement is still focused predominantly on trade, especially in soy, and to a lesser extent in other grains, fruits and certain luxury food items (coffee and wine, for example),”?wrote?Margaret Myers, the director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, on . In order to remain self-sufficient in food and other needs, China’s increasing presence in the region takes two traditional forms: free-trade agreements, and foreign investments, either direct, such as the construction of a factory or a canal project, or indirect, such as loans. The Asian country invests in infrastructures, and also imports oil.Diplomatic CapitalUniqueness – Diplomacy Strong NowU.S. diplomacy is on an upswing. Kerry is busting a move Doyle McManus, Staff Writer, December 8, 2013, “John Kerry's high-wire diplomacy,” Los Angeles Times, opinion/commentary/la-oe-mcmanus-column-kerry-state-department-20131208,0,1472606.column#axzz2n0RgO2E1, Accessed 12/10/2013Has?John F. Kerry?turned into the unexpected star of President?Obama's second term? He was Obama's second choice as secretary of State (after?Susan Rice). He's the same windy, stiff Bostonian who ran unsuccessfully for president a decade ago. And he's taken on a list of assignments that looked distinctly unpromising: nuclear?negotiations?with Iran, peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the?civil war in Syria. But in 10 months, Kerry has embarked on a whirlwind of diplomacy. He helped conclude an interim deal with Iran that puts a ceiling on Tehran's nuclear enrichment. He launched new Israeli-Palestinian peace talks with the goal of producing a deal next year. And he secured a date for negotiations to end the war in Syria, although it's still not certain who will show up.Impacts – Iran Nuclear Deal ScenarioKerry is focused on the Iran nuclear deal and Israel-PalestineThomas L. Friedman, Columnist, December 17, 2013, “Secretary Kerry’s Derring-Do,” New York Times, Accessed 12/21/2013, 1387652819-PsKmJUvdHS4iO+iZ+yHo7QI don’t know whether Secretary of State John Kerry will succeed in his two big chosen priorities: trying to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace and a détente with Iran that deprives it of a nuclear weapon. But I admire his relentlessness. I admire the way he dares to fail — the only way to become a consequential secretary of state. And I admire his strategy: trying to construct a diplomacy that makes it impossible for Israel, the Palestinians and Iran to continue avoiding their big existential choices.A failure to achieve a new deal turns relations into dangerous tensionsNew Straits Times, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Iran nuclear deal proves elusive,” , Accessed 12/21/2013Two weeks ago, the ministers had jetted in seeking to sign on the dotted line, only to fail as cracks appeared among the P5+1 nations -- fissures that officials say are now repaired. But a second fruitless effort in Geneva in as many weeks would not only be an diplomatically embarrassing. If there is no deal, or at least an agreement to meet again soon and keep the diplomatic momentum going, the standoff could enter a new, potentially dangerous phase. Since being elected in June, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has raised big hopes that, after a decade of rising tensions over Tehran's nuclear programme, a solution might be within reach.A nuclear Iran would devastate world peace and stabilityAgence France Presse, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Netanyahu warns Chinese foreign minister against nuclear Iran,” The Daily Star, , Accessed 12/22/2013Israeli Prime Minister?Benjamin Netanyahu?reiterated on Wednesday that?Iran?must not have the "capability" to develop nuclear arms, during a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. "For the peace of the world, for the peace of the coming years and decades, Iran must be denied the capability - I stress the word - the capability to develop nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said in televised remarks distributed by his office ahead of the meeting. Talks between Iran and world powers over implementing last month's nuclear deal are set to resume in Geneva on Thursday. China?is one of the five permanent members of the?UN?Security Council?which, along with Germany, negotiated the November 24 accord. Under the deal, Iran agreed to roll back parts of its nuclear programme for six months in exchange for modest sanctions relief and a promise not to impose new sanctions.Impacts – Iran Nuclear Deal ImpactsA final nuclear deal is essential to long-term U.S.-Iranian peaceScott Peterson,?Staff Writer, December 20, 2013, “How far can any US-Iran rapprochement go?,” Christian Science Monitor, , Accessed 12/21/2013For many, the recent outreach – including a historic phone call between the US and Iranian presidents in September –?already amounts to a thaw. How?much further?can any US-Iran rapprochement go, given a generation of mutual hostility, and the Iranian regime’s?long-encouraged entrenchment of anti-Americanism? Analysts say any broader US-Iran understanding will depend on progress in nuclear talks with world powers to prevent Iran from ever being?able to produce a bomb. A six-month interim agreement signed in?Geneva?in November freezes Iran’s program in exchange for a modest easing of?sanctions,?in a first step toward a comprehensive final deal. Reaching a final accord would help ease chronic mistrust, and could lead to a new US-Iran accommodation –?a cold peace, of sorts.Iran can resume nuclear production in 24 hoursMichael Wilner, December 19, 2013, “Zarif: Iran can resume 20% enrichment in less than 24 hours,” Jerusalem Post, Accessed 12/21/2013, Iran can resume 20 percent uranium enrichment in less than 24 hours, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said a day before the resumption of talks in Geneva on how to implement?an interim nuclear deal?aimed at temporarily freezing Iran’s nuclear program. Zarif told Iranian students on Wednesday that the agreement signed between the Islamic Republic and six world powers on November 24 in Geneva recognizes Tehran's nuclear program, and assured them the program will continue.Impacts – Iran Nuclear Deal/Public SupportsThe majority of Americans support the Iran nuclear dealBen Armbruster, Staff Writer, December 19, 2013, “New Poll Provides More Evidence That Americans Support The Iran Nuclear Deal,” Think Progress, , Accessed 12/21/2013A new?poll?has found that a majority of Americans support the first step agreement reached last month between the six world powers and Iran over its nuclear program. The?deal?freezes Iran’s production of low-enriched uranium, eliminates its stockpile of higher enriched uranium and commits the Islamic Republic to more intrusive inspections from United Nations nuclear experts, in exchange for modest sanctions relief. The new Associated Press-GfK?poll?found that 59 percent either approve or “lean approve,” while 38 percent disapprove or “lean disapprove.” These results track with a?number?of surveys?taken recently?on the Iran nuclear deal and serve as further evidence that two recent polls — one conducted?by Pew?and the other?by a Republican pollster?— finding opposition to the agreement are outliers.Obama will veto any new sanctions billScott Peterson,?Staff Writer, December 20, 2013, “How far can any US-Iran rapprochement go?,” Christian Science Monitor, , Accessed 12/21/2013Yet many hurdles remain, including US Senate legislation introduced?Thursday?that would violate the Geneva agreement by imposing more sanctions on Iran. A Dec. 10?US intelligence community?assessment concluded that more sanctions now would “undermine the prospects” for a final deal, and Iran has stated that any new sanctions will kill the accord.?The White House says it will veto such a bill.IndiaLatin America Links – Expanding Relations NowIndia is expanding economic engagement across Latin America, especially the topic countriesHari Seshasayee,?researcher in the Latin American studies program at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, November 6, 2013, “Tapping into Latin America's Oil,” , Accessed 12/19/2013India's trade and investments across all sectors in Latin America may be overshadowed by the large Chinese presence—trade between China and Latin American countries is six times the trade between India and Latin America—but there is little or no conflict of interest between the Indian and Chinese companies in the region. For example, both work with Venezuela's national oil company PDVSA. In Colombia, India's OVL and China's Sinopec have jointly invested more than $1 billion to form Mansarovar Energy Colombia, which has a 24 percent market share in the country's heavy crude sector. Now, a new dimension has been added to these economic exchanges: increased political will. There have been a number of visits, some of them first-time visits—at the level of heads of state, foreign ministers, commerce ministers—between India and every major Latin America country in the last two years, including Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Cuba, Colombia and Mexico. India will fill in any U.S. shift away from Latin American oilR. Viswanathan, former Indian Ambassador to Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay (2007-2012) and Gateway House's Distinguished Fellow, Latin American Studies, December 18, 2013,?“India-Latin America Engagements,” , Accessed 12/19/2013In the last 12 months, Reliance has imported crude oil worth $13-14 billion from Venezuela and another $2-3 billion from Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia.? In addition, Essar also imports crude oil from Latin America. These imports account for more than 10% of the total crude imports of India from around the world. The U.S., which was the main destination of exports of crude from Venezuela and Mexico, is reducing imports thanks to the growth in its domestic production of shale oil and gas. This means that more and more Latin American crude will become available for India to import in the future.Venezuela Links – Expanding Relations NowVenezuela is turning to India as its largest trading partner to displace U.S. economic influenceHari Seshasayee,?researcher in the Latin American studies program at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, November 6, 2013, “Tapping into Latin America's Oil,” , Accessed 12/19/2013This has been most apparent with Venezuela, India's largest trade partner in Latin America. Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez visited India last month, and representatives of eight Indian companies went to Caracas for the first Indo-Venezuelan Hydrocarbon Business Roundtable on Oct. 7-8. Nine MoUs were signed, including for new joint ventures, long-term contracts to supply oil and the construction of a gas plant in Venezuela. Both countries also plan to diversify bilateral trade. Venezuela is keen to export oil to non-U.S. markets and seeks sources for long-term supply; India wants to lessen its dependence on the Gulf countries (which constitute 66 percent of its oil imports). In 2013, Venezuela became India's fourth-largest source of oil imports—after Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. India has a 15-year contract to buy 400,000 bpd of oil from Venezuela, and five Indian companies are part of joint ventures there. chinaOilVenezuela Oil Prices ScenarioVenezuela is on the brink of collapse. The only thing staving off default is oil pricesMatt Egan, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “Strong-Arm Policies Leave Venezuela Teetering on the Brink of Collapse,” FOXBusiness, , Accessed 12/19/2013Venezuela’s increasingly radicalized economic policies coupled with tame oil prices threaten to further erode the Latin American country’s already-alarming financial condition. In recent days, both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s downgraded Venezuela’s credit rating, with Moody’s warning of a “materially higher risk of an economic and financial collapse” thanks to government policies that have “exacerbated” the situation. The picture on the ground is already scary: inflation that has surged beyond 50%, economic growth that has plunged to just over 1%, soaring bond yields and the lowest levels of reserves in nearly a decade. “You’re starting to hear people talk about default. The more oil sinks, the higher the odds are,” said Win Thin, global head of emerging market currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.Every $10 drop in oil prices takes $10 billion from the Venezuelan economyJoseph Adinolfi, Staff Writer, November 21, 2013, “Default Remains A Concern In Venezuela: Study,” International Business Times, , Accessed 12/19/2013As conditions for the poor and middle-class Venezuelans continue to degenerate, Venezuela faces the possibility of default. Despite mounting debt, the country continues to solicit more short-term capital. Last week, authorities announced that they intend to raise $4.5 billion through the sale of foreign-currency?bonds. David Rees, the author of a report from Capital?Economics?that was released Thursday, says the country’s future solvency hinges on?oil?prices, which are hovering at around $110 a barrel. For every $10 per barrel that prices fall, the country will lose about $10 billion in annual revenue, he says.Oil is key. Venezuelan default exacerbates political and social instabilityCarl Meacham, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), April 25, 2013, “he Aftermath of Venezuela’s Election: Headed for a Default?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Accessed 12/19/2013, long as Venezuela’s oil keeps flowing, default appears unlikely. However, Venezuela’s economy faces many vulnerabilities that may worsen if President Maduro proves unwilling or unable to fix them. When looking at the main indicators of historic sovereign defaults in Latin America, the Venezuelan case may be following a similar path. First, Venezuela has kept its currency artificially strong despite the devaluations of thebolivar. In fact, in the black market the?bolivar?sells at roughly 12?bolivars?per dollar, compared to the official rate of 6.3bolivars?per dollar. On top of this, evidence shows that the exchange rate has been artificially manipulated to serve political purposes, which has deteriorated confidence in the currency. It is no coincidence that the?bolivar?experienced devaluations in 2010 and 2013, but nothing happened in the run-up to the presidential election in 2012. Second, Venezuela’s fiscal deficit is cause for alarm. Given the political, social and economic instability, and likely government spending to solidify support for the Maduro administration, it is unlikely to disappear any time soon. Third, the devaluation of the?bolivar?by nearly one-third of its value increased the debt to GDP ratio to 70 percent, adding up to a total debt of $180 billion dollars. Although this is peanuts compared to the Greece’s nearly 160 percent ration or even the 100 percent of the United States, it will likely undermine growth prospects. Fourth, despite a government-reported inflation rate of 20 percent by the end of 2012, lower than the nearly 28 percent rate of 2011, it appears unlikely to diminish in the near future. All of these fiscal and monetary conditions combined suggest Venezuela’s risk of default bears watching. However, it is important to wait for economic adjustments, if any, that Maduro may propose to the Congress and whether the opposition will be willing to work with any proposed measures. It is also important to mention that this is all occurring with serious societal division and political confrontation as a backdrop. There is a chance that Maduro may see not paying his debts as a political move to demonstrate that he is anti-systemic and that he rejects the claims of the international financial system, a la Argentina with its bondholders.A prolonged slump in oil prices collapses Venezuela into open civil warJuan Nagel, Staff Writer, May 16, 2013, “Is Venezuela becoming a failed state?,” Foreign Policy, Accessed 12/19/2013, long period of low oil prices spells doom for Venezuela's political sustainability. Without high oil revenues, basic services would practically disappear, and the potential for instability would be enormous. Already the country is stuck in a state of undeclared in civil war, and there are claims that drug smuggling has permeated the higher echelons of the government. Venezuela has so far avoided the fate of its neighbor Colombia, a country still deep in a long civil war with Marxist guerrillas and drug cartels. This is largely due to the deep pockets oil has afforded the government, which allowed for state presence even in the most remote corners of the country. It is hard to see how that presence could be maintained if oil rents were to dry up significantly, and for a prolonged period. This could lead to the type of problems that have bedeviled Colombia, or even poorer neighboring failed states such as Haiti. Even though its problems are of its own making, the thought of a large, failed state in the heart of the Western Hemisphere should trouble the continent's leaders.A Venezuelan collapse would force Maduro to step with cooperation with anti-U.S. groups like Iran and drug cartels. This risks widespread destabilization, narcoterrorism, and cyberterrorism against the U.S.Paul D. Shinkman, National Security Reporter for U.S. News & World Report, April 23, 2013, “Iranian-Sponsored Narco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?,” U.S. News and World Report , , Accessed 12/19/2013The situation in the South American nation remains dire amid skyrocketing inflation, largely due to Chavez's efforts to nationalize private industry and increase social benefits. Maduro's immediate attention after claiming victory was drawn to remedying widespread blackouts and food shortages. One expert on the region says the new leader may need to tap into a shadow world of transnational crime to maintain the stability his countrymen expect. "Venezuela is a really nice bar, and anybody can go in there and pick up anybody else," says Doug Farah, an expert on narco-terrorism and Latin American crime. He compares the country to the kind of establishment where nefarious actors can find solutions to a problem. Anti-American groups can find freelance cyber terrorists, for example, or potential drug runners can make connections with the FARC, the Colombian guerilla organization, he says. "Sometimes it creates a long-term relationship, and sometimes it creates a one-night stand," says Farah, a former Washington Post investigative reporter who is now a senior fellow at the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center. Under Chavez, Venezuela also created strong ties with Cuba, which for decades has navigated treacherous financial waters and desperate economic straits, all while dodging U.S. influence. But the help Venezuela receives is not limited to its own hemisphere. Farah produced a research paper for the U.S. Army War College in August 2012 about the "growing alliance" between state-sponsored Iranian agents and other anti-American groups in Latin America, including the governments of Venezuela and Cuba. This alliance with Iran uses established drug trade routes from countries in South and Central America to penetrate North American borders, all under a banner of mutual malevolence toward the U.S.PoliticsCuba – Not Pushing Reforms NowObama is not pushing for significant change in Cuba policy nowAndrew Rosenthal, the editorial page editor of The New York Times,?Et al, December 13, 2013, “Lift the Cuban Embargo,” New York Times, , Accessed 12/13/2013Mr. Obama took some tentative steps to ease the embargo in 2009 by allowing Cuban-Americans to visit and send remittances to the island. He also cleared the way for telecommunications companies to establish licensing deals in Cuba. But the administration has not pushed publicly for any significant changes since then.Despite reforms, Obama rejects lifting the embargoAmanda Borschel-Dan, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Judy Gross to Obama: Castro handshake was fine, now help free my husband,” Times of Israel, , Accessed 12/13/2013As president, Obama has lifted limits on how often Cuban-Americans can visit family back on the island, and how much they can send home in remittances. He also reinstated “people-to-people” cultural exchange tours to Cuba. The result is more than a half-million US visitors to the island each year. Cultural, sports and academic exchanges have become commonplace. Just Monday, a huge ship docked in Havana carrying hundreds of Semester at Sea students under a US government license. But Obama has also argued that Washington’s 51-year economic embargo on Cuba should remain in force, and his administration has imposed tens of millions of dollars in fines on international companies for violating the sanctions.Cuba – Not Pushing For Embargo Lift / ControversialObama isn’t acting to remove the embargo now. It would be a bitter fight in CongressBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, Obama’s handshake with Cuban president?Raul Castro?at Nelson Mandela’s memorial service last week has fed both hopes and fears that the half-century freeze between the U.S. and Cuba is about to thaw. Don’t light up the Cohibas just yet. Obama’s largely meaningless courtesy was accompanied by a more relevant bit of meaningless theater: Republican Senator Ted Cruz’s walkout on Castro’s speech. Obama has done little to fix the U.S.’s failed Cuba policy. Yet Congress’s bitter-enders remain determined -- and able -- to defend an embargo that hurts U.S. interests and undermines its values. Farm Bill – Key to U.S. AgricultureNot passing the new Farm Bill crushes U.S. agricultural exportsChronicle Tribune, Staff Writer, December 22, 2013, “Why do we even need a farm bill?,” , Accessed 12/22/2013While House and Senate negotiators insist they are close to an agreement on a comprehensive, five-year farm bill, the USDA issued dire warnings this week of what would happen to U.S. exports if a bill failed to pass. On Dec. 12, the House passed an extension of the farm bill until Jan. 31 in hopes a deal on a full bill could be passed in early 2014. Meanwhile on Thursday, USDA Under Secretary Michael Scuse said that if a new farm bill isn’t passed soon, the U.S.’s record agricultural exports could be hurt.Farm Bill – Key to Conservation ProgramsPassing the new Farm Bill is crucial to maintain conservation and habitat restoration programsTom Vilsack, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and Nancy Sutley, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, December 12, 2013,?“A Farm Bill Will Grow Our Economy While Protecting the Environment, , Accessed 12/22/2013Additionally, a new five-year? Farm Bill would strengthen USDA efforts to restore land, conserve water resources and create wildlife habitat – programs such as the?Mississippi River Basin Healthy Watersheds Initiative?that’s helping treat more than 840,000 acres of land along the Mississippi River, and the?Ogallala Aquifer Initiative?that has enrolled more than 275,000 acres in recent years. In the Chesapeake Bay, a new Farm Bill would enable continued conservation and restoration efforts that,?according to a new report?are preventing soil erosion to the tune of 15.1 million tons annually while also reducing runoff of nitrogen and phosphorus. That’s enough to fill 150,000 cars on a train that would stretch from Washington, D.C. to Albuquerque, New Mexico. A new Farm Bill is critical to continue the wide range of conservation efforts USDA has undertaken alongside farmers and ranchers in recent years. The benefits of conservation practices on our nation’s farms and ranches are well-documented, and with a record number of producers working to protect our environment today, it’s time to move forward. Strong conservation provisions must be a key part of a new Farm Bill. Our nation depends on it, our lands depend on it, and our children will benefit from the expanded conservation efforts that only a comprehensive Farm Bill can provide.The Farm Bill is the cornerstone of American conservation programs. These are key to the agricultural sector and economyTom Vilsack, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and Nancy Sutley, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, December 12, 2013,?“A Farm Bill Will Grow Our Economy While Protecting the Environment, , Accessed 12/22/2013Conservation is the foundation of a productive agriculture sector and a strong rural economy. By protecting our soil, water and wildlife habitat, farmers and ranchers are helping to ensure that our working lands are wild areas are productive for years to come. They’re also supporting outdoor recreation for millions of American sportsmen. From hunting and fishing, to camping and hiking, these outdoor activities add more than $640 billion to our economy every year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture works directly with farmers and ranchers to strengthen our nation’s soil and water resources. USDA has partnered with more than half a million farmers, ranchers and landowners on these conservation projects since 2009 – a record number. The Farm Bill is America’s largest investment supporting the voluntary and successful conservation, restoration and management of America’s working lands. It provides a wide range of critical and successful programs to conserve our natural resources. For example, by linking crop insurance compliance to participation in conservation programs, a new Farm Bill would keep tens of millions of acres in conservation practices and expand our efforts across the nation.RussiaCuba Links – Economic EngagementRussia just wrote off 90% of Cuba debtYuri Paniyev, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Moscow writes off most of Cuba's debt,” Russia & India report, Accessed 12/13/2013, more than 20 years of disputes, Russia has finally agreed to write off 90 percent of Cuba's $32.2 billion Soviet-era debt. According to a Reuters report of Dec. 10, Moscow signed an agreement in October on debt restructuring plans discussed in February 2013 during Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Cuba. Under the deal, Cuba will pay the remaining $3.2 billion back to Russia within 10 years. Talks continue on exactly how the money will be repaid.The new debt agreement will boost Cuba-Russian relations and tradeYuri Paniyev, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Moscow writes off most of Cuba's debt,” Russia & India report, Accessed 12/13/2013, , the current agreement paves the way for Russian loans, which are of crucial importance to the cash-strapped Cuba. In the past, the Russian Finance Ministry has repeatedly vetoed the Cabinet's proposals to lend money to Cuba, demanding that the debt issue should be settled first. The agreement also gives hope for a revival of Russian-Cuban trade, which barely reached $220 million last year and amounted to just $163 million in the first nine months of 2013. There are also indications that cooperation could be developed in oil extraction, power generation, transportation, civil aviation, biopharmacy, and high technologies – these are the sectors mentioned in the 2009 bilateral memorandum on strategic cooperation, which served as the basis for boosting the relations between the two countries. According to Vladimir Davydov, director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the debt-cancelling agreement will improve Russian-Cuban relations. At the same time, he notes, Moscow and Havana in recent years have taken a number of political decisions and signed several agreements covering numerous areas of cooperation.Impacts – Russia is Becoming More AgressiveRussia just reaffirmed its doctrine to use nukes in response to conventional attack in response to the U.S. PGS programVladimir Isachenkov, Staff Writer for the Associated Press, December 11, 2013, “The 'great equalizer': Russia may retaliate with nukes if it comes under conventional attack, official says,” The Province, comes+under+conventional+attack/9275841/story.html, Accessed 12/20/2013Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional strike and sees them as a "great equalizer" reducing the likelihood of aggression, a senior Russian official said Wednesday. While Russia amended its military doctrine years ago to allow for the possibility of using nuclear weapons first in retaliation to a non-nuclear attack, the statement by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin reflected Moscow's concern about prospective U.S. conventional weapons. Weapons that have been developed in the United States under the so-called "prompt global strike" program would be capable of striking targets anywhere in the world in as little as an hour with deadly precision. Russia, which has lagged far behind in developing such weapons, has described them as destabilizing.Russia is flexing its regional muscles with new missiles in KaliningradBruno Waterfield, Staff Writer for the Daily Telegraph, December 16, 2013, “Too close for comfort: U.S. and others condemn Russia over nuclear missile move,” The Province, move/9293584/story.html, Accessed 12/19/2013Artis Pabriks, Latvia’s defence minister, linked the deployment to the broader cooling relations between the EU and Russia as well as the long-running dispute between Moscow and Nato over missile defence. “It creates unnecessary political tension and suspicions and reduces mutual trust because we don’t see reason why Russians would need such weapons here,” he said. “I think it’s just to show who is the boss in the region.” Russia warned in 2011 that it might put Iskanders in Kaliningrad in response to the Nato plan but did not made any official announcement until after the missiles were seen close to Poland.New missiles in Kaliningrad are a backlash against NATOBruno Waterfield, Staff Writer for the Daily Telegraph, December 16, 2013, “Too close for comfort: U.S. and others condemn Russia over nuclear missile move,” The Province, move/9293584/story.html, Accessed 12/19/2013The United States, Poland and three Baltic countries have expressed alarm at Russia’s deployment of nuclear-capable missiles to the exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders the European Union. The Kremlin confirmed that it has placed Iskander-M missiles in its western-most region following reports that spy satellite photographs showed the weapons stationed near the Polish border. The missiles, which can be armed with nuclear warheads, have a striking range of hundreds of miles and have been deployed by Russia in response to Nato’s development of a missile defence shield against Iran.***Aff. & Advantage – Extenions***CUBAA2: Engaging Now / Castro HandshakeObama’s handshake with Castro was meaningless. An outcry is just sillyJoel Mathis, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Handshake sends world the wrong message,” Denver Post, , Accessed 12/13/2013The conservative insistence that a U.S. president must not shake the hands of certain dictators is deeply silly — and more than a little inconsistent. Go through the photo archives of any presidential library, and there you'll find image after image of presidents (or their emissaries) gripping palms with some of the more detestable men (always men) of recent world history: There's Donald Rumsfeld and Saddam Hussein! John McCain and Moammar Gadhafi! Henry Kissinger and Augusto Pinochet! Richard Nixon and Zhou Enlai! Ronald Reagan and Ferdinand Marcos! George W. Bush and any Saudi prince! Every U.S. president and every Chinese leader since the Tiananmen Square massacre!Of course, some of those detestable dictators were our detestable dictators. In the other cases, handshakes happened because there were deals to be made, sooner or later. When do snubs happen? When the country is a country small enough and weak enough for the United States to treat with disdain. Thus: Cuba. Don't misunderstand: Raul Castro is no secret hero. He can best be understood as a petty dictator. The island will almost certainly be better off when — if — the regime he heads ever falls. But the outcry that greeted Obama's shaking of his hand comes from the same corners of American life that insist on continuing a half-century embargo against that island nation and the Castros. That snub — in essence, 50 years of refusing to shake hands — has not brought freedom to the Cuban people. Possibly, U.S. intransigence has actually helped keep the regime alive. Yes, Neville Chamberlain shook hands with Adolf Hitler. But that wasn't Neville's sin: It was handing over a chunk of Czechoslovakia to Germany in order to buy peace. The Nazis claimed the Sudetenland as their trophy, not Chamberlain's grip. Symbolism does matter. But it usually doesn't matter that much. Raul Castro may have touched Obama's hand, but he's returning to a nation still under U.S. embargo. He has no illusions where his country stands with the United States.Reforms Working NowCuban reforms are taking hold on economic and political frontsBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, argument against Obama doing so is that Cuba remains a repressive regime. As Obama shook Castro’s hand, for instance, Cuban security forces were?beating and arresting?dozens of activists for celebrating International Human Rights Day. Although Castro’s regime has instituted some noteworthy?economic reforms, its detention and harassment of dissidents increased last year.Yet history’s direction is as clear as its lessons: Although five decades of stringent U.S. sanctions haven’t dislodged the Castros and their single-party socialist state, Cuba is nonetheless changing for the better, with more economic and, yes,?political freedom. It also has a?growing middle class (nurtured by an estimated $2 billion in annual remittances from the U.S.) composed of consumistas, not comunistas.Cuba is opening up its economy nowFareed Zakaria, CNN Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Give capitalism a chance to change Cuba,” Global Public Square (CNN), Access 12/14/2013The truth is that Cuba's miserable economy is almost entirely its own fault. The Castro regime has coupled political repression with communist economic policies and the result, predictably, has been total failure and stagnation. But things are changing in Cuba. The government has been experimenting with opening up elements of the economy. By some estimates about 20 percent of the Cuban economy is now in the private sector.Embargo AFF. - InherencyThe status quo is focused on increasing travel, not lifting the embargoDavid Wickham, Staff Writer, December 2, 2013, “Wickham: Obama thaws U.S.-Cuba relations,” USA Today, , Accessed 12/11/2013Increased travel between the?USA?and?Cuba?is the cornerstone of the president's détente with the communist state.?Obama wisely believes?that stepped up contact between Americans and Cubans will do more to improve life for people on that Caribbean island than the longstanding U.S. economic blockade.Embargo AFF. – Solvency AdvocatesReforms make now a crucial time for the U.S. to increase economic engagement with Cuba to advance their transition to democracy. Lifting the embargo magnifies democratic advances of current reformsJacqueline Alemany, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “Post-handshake, Cuba embargo debate heats up again,” CBS News, , Accessed 12/19/2013"Barbaric" is a term frequently used by those who decry the blockade to describe a policy that has amounted to a whopping $1.26 trillion worth of economic damages to Cuba, as revealed by Cuban foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez before the General Assembly in October. With the introduction of political liberalization and economic reform by Castro in his first term, many believe that now is an especially crucial time for the United States to re-establish a relationship with Cuba in order to help usher along reform in a transitory period. "This is simply a matter of doing something that is right in terms of policy effectiveness," José Raúl Perales, a director of the international division at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told CBS News.Broadening economic engagement and allowing for increased travel in to Cuba in the midst of Castro's economic reform may allow for a more streamlined path away from a communist regime towards a democracy. Although Perales admits that the process of reform is not necessarily a "linear relationship" but that at the moment, the United States' relationship with Cuba is so poisonous that it precludes the two countries from even having a conversation about how to undertake reform. "It is well proven that economic liberalization creates space for political liberalization," Arturo Lopez Levy, a lecturer and doctoral candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, told CBS News. There are other slight but telling reforms under Castro, signifiers that the country is headed in the right direction: Cubans now have the right to travel and the right to free exercise of religious beliefs, two rights that Lopez Levy refers to as "multipliers" of other rights.?The embargo is a national embarrassment. Obama and Congress should reverse this Cold War legacySteve Barnes, Staff Writer, December 12, 2013, “After five decades, it's time to resume trade with Cuba,” Baxter Bulletin, , Accessed 12/13/2013The embargo, an immediate and continuing failure, is a lingering Cold War remnant, and embarrassment. If Cuba has not thrived — at $121 billion its Gross Domestic Product is but some 20 percent larger than Arkansas’ — it has survived, and its economy likely will improve, along with those of countries prudent enough to engage it. There is, too, evidence that Raul is ever so carefully nudging his nation toward more western foreign and domestic policies. International trade is complicated and the Cuba prospect decidedly so. Even should Mr. Obama boldly reverse Kennedy’s course Congress probably would have to approve a bi-lateral trade agreement. Don’t bet on it, not anytime soon. Why would a Congress that can’t approve a budget, can’t even pass a farm bill, do the smart thing?The status quo is a failure. We must adopt a policy of economic engagementFareed Zakaria, CNN Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Give capitalism a chance to change Cuba,” Global Public Square (CNN), Access 12/14/2013Americans should have greater faith in the power of markets, trade and travel to eat away at the Cuban dictatorship, strengthen Cuban civil society, including private business, and thus change the character of the country. Washington has tried isolation, sanctions, and embargoes against Cuba for more than five decades with dismal results. Why not try capitalism for five years?Terrorist List AFF. – Not Supporting TerrorismThe most recent U.S. report proves Cuba is not supporting terrorism and should be removed from the listPaul R. Pillar, served 28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, currently a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies, December 2, 2013, “How Terror War Hurts Cuba Policy,” Consortium News, , Accessed 12/10/2013The key constraint is Cuba’s continued place on the official U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. That list, created under a 1979 law, long ago ceased to bear much resemblance to actual patterns of state sponsorship of terrorism, in terms of which countries are on the list as well as which ones are not. Cuba, which has been on the list longer (since 1982) than any other country currently listed, is one of the most glaring anomalies. The most recent official U.S. report on state sponsors of terrorism, the one for 2012, gives no reason to conclude otherwise. The report states that there is “no indication that the Cuban government provided weapons or paramilitary training to terrorist groups.”GITMO AFF. – Should Close NowThe General who opened GITMO says it was a mistake and should be closedMichael Lehnert, Maj. Gen., USMC (Ret.), was the first commander of the U.S. detention facility at Guantánamo, December 12, 2013, “Here's why It's long past time that we close Guantánamo,” Detroit Free Press, 312120025/Guantanamo-Bay-prison, Accessed 12/13/2013Our nation created Guantánamo because we were legitimately angry and frightened by an unprovoked attack on our soil on Sept. 11, 2001. We thought that the detainees would provide a treasure trove of information and intelligence. I was ordered to construct the first 100 cells at Guantánamo within 96 hours. The first group of 20 prisoners arrived seven days after the order was given. We were told that the prisoners were the “worst of the worst,” a common refrain for every set of detainees sent to Guantánamo. The U.S. has held 779 men at the detention facility over the past 12 years. There are currently 162 men there, most of them cleared for transfer, but stuck by politics. Even in the earliest days of Guantánamo, I became more and more convinced that many of the detainees should never have been sent in the first place. They had little intelligence value, and there was insufficient evidence linking them to war crimes. That remains the case today for many, if not most, of the detainees. In retrospect, the entire detention and interrogation strategy was wrong. We squandered the goodwill of the world after we were attacked by our actions in Guantánamo, both in terms of detention and torture. Our decision to keep Guantánamo open has helped our enemies because it validates every negative perception of the United States.Now is a key time to reverse the mistake of GITMOMichael Lehnert, Maj. Gen., USMC (Ret.), was the first commander of the U.S. detention facility at Guantánamo, December 12, 2013, “Here's why It's long past time that we close Guantánamo,” Detroit Free Press, 312120025/Guantanamo-Bay-prison, Accessed 12/13/2013In 2002, I led the first Joint Task Force to Guantánamo and established the detention facility. Today, I believe it is time to close Guantánamo. In the coming week, Congress will lay the foundation for whether and to what extent Guantánamo can be closed. The annual defense bill appears to have compromise language that would give the president some additional flexibility to transfer detainees to their home or third countries, though it maintains an unwise and unnecessary ban on transferring detainees to the United States. Still, this is a step forward toward closing our nation’s most notorious prison — a prison that should never have been opened.U.S.-Cuban Relations Advantage – Relations Low NowConsular closings prove U.S.-Cuban relations and travel are low nowPaul R. Pillar, served 28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, currently a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies, December 2, 2013, “How Terror War Hurts Cuba Policy,” Consortium News, , Accessed 12/10/2013Last week?the government of Cuba announced that it was ceasing nearly all of the consular services that it provides in the United States. The reason was that the sole U.S. bank that had been willing to handle an account for Cuba is no longer willing. With no bank account, the Cuban interests section cannot do such things as accept payment for visa fees. This development will curb what had been growing travel between the United States and Cuba. The impairment of travel is a bad thing not only from the point of view of the Cuban government, which needs revenue from tourism, but also the current U.S. government, which appropriately sees greater travel and unofficial contacts as relief for separated families as well as encouragement for the sorts of free economic and political ideas that have been stifled under an isolated Castro dictatorship.U.S.-Cuban Relations Advantage – Sanctions Scenario Internal LinkBetter relations with Cuba allows the U.S. more resources to enforce sanctions against North Korea and IranBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, with Cuba on issues such as cleaning up oil spills and fighting drug traffickers -- where Cuba has been?remarkably helpful?-- will be increasingly important. And surely the U.S. Treasury Department would be better off spending more time enforcing sanctions against Iran and North Korea than flyspecking the itineraries of U.S. travelers to Cuba -- including by vetoing a planned excursion by U.S. researchers to Cuban baseball games.Terrorism Advantage – OFAC Trade-Off ExtensionRemoving U.S. sanctions frees up OFAC resourcesPaul R. Pillar, served 28 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, currently a visiting professor at Georgetown University for security studies, December 2, 2013, “How Terror War Hurts Cuba Policy,” Consortium News, , Accessed 12/10/2013There are some retirees of the Basque terrorist group ETA (which appears on the verge of disbanding) in Cuba, but the report notes that the Cuban government evidently is trying to distance itself from them by denying them services such as travel documents. Some members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have been allowed into Cuba, but that was because Cuba was hosting peace talks between the FARC and the Colombian government. The U.S. sanctions mechanism run by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in the Treasury Department is so effective and formidable that it strikes fear into the hearts of banks and other private-sector organizations that might otherwise consider dealing with a listed state, regardless of how flimsy are the reasons for a state being on the list and how much the current U.S. administration might actually welcome commerce with it.Solvency Ext. – Cuba Will Say “Yes”Cuba just reached out to the U.S. to improve relationsMarc Frank, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Cuba president notes tone of recent relations with U.S.,” Reuters, , Accessed 12/22/2013Cuban President Raul Castro on Saturday called on the United States to establish civilized relations with his country, recognizing a new tone in bilateral talks on secondary issues while reiterating that the country's political and economic system were non-negotiable. The United States and?Cuba?have appeared more positive of late as talks around immigration, postal services, disaster prevention and other security issues have taken place, with officials from both countries cautiously welcoming each other's pragmatism and seriousness in interviews with Reuters.A2: Alan Gross CP – No SolvencyThe U.S. just stepped-up demands for Alan Gross’ release and Cuba said NoVoice of America News, Staff Writer, December 3, 2013, “US Calls for Release of American Jailed in Cuba,” , Accessed 12/10/2013The United States called on Monday for the immediate release of an American contractor jailed for the past four years in Cuba, saying his continued captivity on the communist-ruled island was “gravely disappointing.” “Tomorrow, development worker Alan Gross will begin a fifth year of unjustified imprisonment in Cuba,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement. “It is gravely disappointing, especially in light of [Cuba's] professed goal of providing Cubans with Internet access, that the Cuban government has not allowed Mr. Gross to return to his family, where he belongs,” the statement read.Cuba will only negotiate for prisoners releases on a reciprocal basisMary Murray, NBC News Staff Writer, December 4, 2013, “Cuba won't budge on jailed American contractor, insists on prisoner swap,” NBC News, , Accessed 12/11/2013Cuba’s government on Wednesday continued to tie the fate of an American contractor jailed there for four years to the release of four Cuban spies imprisoned in the U.S. since 1998. Responding to renewed calls for Havana to free 64-year-old American contractor Alan Gross, Director General of Cuba’s Foreign Ministry, Josefina Vidal Ferreiro, said in a statement that the government is open to negotiations for a swap of prisoners. "The Cuban government reiterates its readiness to immediately establish a dialogue with the United States government to find a solution to the case of Mr. Gross on a reciprocal basis, and which addresses the humanitarian concerns of Cuba relating to the case of the four Cuban anti-terrorist fighters in prison in the United States,” she said.Obama has categorically ruled out a prisoner swap for Alan GrossMarc Frank, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “Cuba president notes tone of recent relations with U.S.,” Reuters, , Accessed 12/22/2013A significant breakthrough in relations remains unlikely while?Cuba?continues to detain a U.S. government contractor, Alan Gross, who was arrested 4 years ago for what Cuba saw as a subversive effort to promote political change. Gross said he was in Cuba to set up?communications equipment?to give unrestricted Internet access to Jewish groups. A Cuban judge said that activity was a crime against the state and sentenced Gross to 15 years. It remains unclear what steps the Obama administration can take to obtain Gross's release. Cuba has hinted it would release him in return for four Cubans jailed on espionage charges in the United States, but Washington has flatly ruled that out.A2: CapitalismCapitalism is already taking hold in CubaAndrea Rodriguez, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “As Cuba's new entrepreneurs adapt to free market, some see challenge to revolutionary values,” Vancouver Sun, some+challenge/9262634/story.html, Accessed 12/13/2013It's not dog-eat-dog. Not just yet. But as more and more islanders go into business for themselves under President Raul Castro's economic reforms, the ethos of capitalism is increasingly seeping into Cuban daily life, often in stark conflict with fundamental tenets of the Cuban Revolution. These days it seems there's a mom-and-pop snack shop or pirate DVD stand on every other block in parts of Havana. The chants of cart-pushing vendors echo through residential streets. Farmers line up before dawn at an open-air market to jockey for the best spot to sell their produce. After decades of being urged to report any black market activity in their neighbourhoods, some Cubans now find themselves looking at their neighbours' legal businesses and worrying that they're falling behind.A2: Sex TourismThe weak economy is the cause of child sex tourism in CubaVictor Ariel González, Staff Writer, December 10, 2013, “Does Human Trafficking Exist in Cuba or Not?,” Cuba Advisory, , Accessed 12/13/2013In various civil independent society publications, foreign as well as Cuban, accounts appear that bear witness to the sexual exploitation of Cuban adolescent victims. They speak of families that agree to “offer” their daughters to a foreigner who promises to take them with him to give them a better life and in this way the girl is able to help those who she leaves behind. Prostitution is a hidden subject in Cuba. The critical economic situation has contributed to the growth of this phenomenon in recent years to never before seen levels.MEXICOGuest Workers AFF. - InherencyThe only current approach leaves out guest workers. It’s a clear case of attitudinal inherencyAlex Nowrasteh, policy analyst at the Cato Institute, November 29, 2013, “Immigration Reform Plan Does Only Half the Job,” Cafe Con Leche Republicans, , Accessed 12/13/2013Heeding the Obama administration’s call for immigration reform, a bipartisan group of eight senators Monday released a proposal they plan to introduce as legislation. They wisely included legalization for current undocumented immigrants, but their plan will likely come up short on a guest-worker program for legal migrant workers. While legalization is a good step, lack of a comprehensive guest-worker program only perpetuates the problem many immigration critics cite as their biggest concern: unauthorized immigration. Yet guest-worker measures have worked in this country before, so it is pure politics, rather than substance, that prevents officials from crafting one now.Guest Workers AFF. –Unauthorized Immigration Adv.Unauthorized immigration will continue without a guest worker programAlex Nowrasteh, policy analyst at the Cato Institute, November 29, 2013, “Immigration Reform Plan Does Only Half the Job,” Cafe Con Leche Republicans, , Accessed 12/13/2013Most unauthorized immigrants came from Mexico, Central America and Asia, where the benefits of moving here are incomes two to six times greater than in their homelands. The U.S. economy, struggling since the 2008 crisis, put a damper on unauthorized immigration, but gradually recovering housing and labor markets are beginning to attract people?again. That is why a robust guest-worker program is needed: to accommodate future flows of migrants. After decades of unauthorized immigration motivated by economic gain, it is fantasy to expect it to stop after legalizing those unauthorized immigrants already here. Let us not forget that President Ronald Reagan tried an amnesty in 1986 — which failed because it legalized the workers here but did not provide a viable pathway for future workers to come. What we need is a legal way for lower-skilled immigrants to enter the United States — and a guest-worker?visa?program is the easiest avenue.An expanded and lightly regulated guest worker program is crucial to stemming the tide of unauthorized immigration and boost the U.S. economyThe CATO Institute, Staff Writer, March/April 2013, “The Costs and Benefits of Guest Worker Visas,” CATO Policy Report, , Accessed 12/12/2013The U.S. government has struggled to enforce its restrictive immigration policy ever since it was created. But a real and long-term solution to unauthorized immigration requires less law enforcement and more opportunity for foreign workers to temporarily work in the United States. In?“How to Make Guest Worker Visas Work”?(Policy Analysis no. 719), Cato policy analyst Alex Nowrasteh argues that an expanded and lightly regulated guest worker visa program is an essential part of any immigration reform proposal. “The current guest worker visa system is hampered by expensive regulations, restrictive laws, and an uncaring bureaucracy that makes the system unworkable for most American employers and migrants who would like to work together,” he writes. According to Nowrasteh, a guest worker visa program should efficiently link foreign workers with American employers and function with a minimum of government interference. Market forces as well as security, criminal, and health concerns should be the factors that determine which workers acquire visas. A successful program would also divert most unauthorized immigration into the legal system. It would shrink the informal economy, be easily enforceable, support economic growth in the United States, and narrow the government’s role in immigration. “Only a timely, cheap, and lawful way to enter and work in the United States will stanch unauthorized immigration and grow our economy,” Nowrasteh concludes.Guest Workers AFF. – Agriculture Adv.A guest worker program is essential to U.S. agriculture. It would add over $20 billion in profits and wages in Colorado aloneDan Barker, Times News Editor, November 20, 2013, “Ag producers call for immigration reform now,” Ft. Morgan Times, Accessed 12/12/2013, study by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office shows that Colorado's gross state product would increase by $15.8 billion and produce $9.1 billion in wages over 10 years if immigration reform such as that approved in the U.S. Senate was passed, said Brent Boydston, vice president of policy for the Colorado Farm Bureau. It would add 2,300 jobs to the state's economy, and produce $681 million in taxes, he said. The Colorado Farm Bureau is the largest agricultural organization in the state, Boydston said, representing most of the agricultural industry. "We rely on immigrant labor on a daily basis," he said. "Agriculture and immigration go hand in hand." In times of labor shortages, the United States guest worker program is "unworkable," Boydston said. This will require a legislative solution, he said, urging Congressional representatives to get something done. Boydston commended the U.S. Senate for its work on an immigration bill. He also said that producers need a viable guest worker program that ensures that producers have access to labor.Oil Investment AFF. – U.S. Action KeyMexican energy reform paves the way for U.S. investments. Mexico needs U.S. technology and expertise to benefit from the shale boomPeter Schechter and Jason Marczak, the director and deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, December 18, 2013, “Mexico's energy reform will benefit U.S.: Column,” USA Today, 2013/12/18/mexico-constitution-energy-column/4075943/, Accessed 12/18/2013Mexico's energy sector desperately needed change. Mexico relies on its oil revenues, controlled for the past 75 years by the state monopoly?PEMEX, for a third of its national revenue. Oil is how Mexico pays for social investments like schools, hospitals and roads. But, for some time now?PEMEX's production has been declining. Promising energy deposits, particularly in shale beds and deepwater wells, remain untouched because PEMEX needs the latest technology and financial capacity to profitably extract from these sites. The?approved constitutional reform?to Mexico's energy sector will change this equation. The reform will allow private investment through various schemes: profit sharing, production sharing or in the form of a license. Mexico will benefit from the technology, financial and human capital to exploit its abundant energy deposits, not to mention from the royalties it will receive. Foreign and domestic private investors will benefit from entering a market with plentiful energy resources. This is a win-win situation if there ever was one. The reform will open investment opportunities for American energy and service infrastructure companies that seek new energy markets. U.S. energy companies that have the experience in developing the exact same shale geology and similar Gulf of Mexico deepwater challenges will be in a privileged position to gain access to Mexico's market.Latin America Adv.Poverty High NowLatin American poverty is high now. Recent easing is slowing downLuis Andres Henao, Staff Writer, December 5, 2013, “Poverty Reduction In Latin America Is Slowing, UN Says,” Huffington Post, , Accessed 12/11/2013Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean is now easing at a slower pace, the UN's regional economic body said on Thursday, calling on governments to make policy changes that encourage growth while reducing the huge gap between the rich and poor. UN economists based in Santiago said about 164 million people, or 28 percent of the region's population, are still considered poor. That is nearly unchanged from last year. Out of those, 68 million of them are in extreme poverty. The last annual report said growing job income and economic growth helped lift a million people out of poverty to the lowest rate in more than three decades. But the UN economic body said that after decades of progress the pace in poverty reduction has now slowed considerably due to rising food costs and weaker economic growth.VENEZUELASolvency – Maduro Will Say “Yes”Venezuela is open to good relations with the U.S.Ryan Mallett-Outtrim, Staff Writer, December 13,?2013 “US and Venezuela Again Call for Better Bilateral Ties,” , , Accessed 12/21/2013Venezuelan Vice President Jorge Arreaza has said he wants “good relations” with the United States, following a statement from US Secretary of State John Kerry earlier this week that Washington is “ready and willing” to improve bilateral ties. “We respect them, and hopefully the US and its government is beginning to respect Venezuela,” Arreaza tweeted this week.Relations are warming. Venezuela has agreed to come to the tableRyan Mallett-Outtrim, Staff Writer, December 13,?2013 “US and Venezuela Again Call for Better Bilateral Ties,” , , Accessed 12/21/2013During this week's interview, Kerry stated that he has nonetheless “reached out personally” to the Maduro government. “We are ready and willing, and we are open to improving that relationship,” he stated. The possible olive branch echoes?similar comments?made following a meeting between Kerry and Venezuelan foreign minister Elias Jaua in June. Jaua described the meeting as “proactive”, and said it marked “the beginning of a good respectful relationship”. “We agreed today — both of us, Venezuela and the United States — that we would like to see our countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the ways to do that,” Kerry said after the June meeting, which occurred on the sidelines of the 43rd?General Assembly of the OAS. ***Affirmative Disadvantage Ans.***A2: BrazilA2: Brazilian ProliferationBrazil is no proliferation threat. They have to rely on China for satellites and the recent failure proves no risk from BrazilReuters, Staff Writer, December 9, 2013, “China-Brazil satellite launch fails, likely fell back to Earth,” Accessed 12/10/2013, Chinese-Brazilian satellite launched by China on Monday failed to reached its planned orbit and likely fell back to Earth, Brazil's Ministry of Science said. The satellite was the fourth in a series designed to monitor land use in Brazil, including forest cover in the Amazon basin. Brazil's space program is seeking to reduce the country's dependence on U.S. and European space equipment and launch vehicles and expand the domestic aerospace industry, already the world's No. 3 producer of commercial jet aircraft. The government is also seeking to increase control over its long and largely unguarded land border and better manage forest, mineral, water and agricultural resources in its vast and thinly populated interior. The CBERS-3 satellite developed by China and Brazil was carried to space on Monday morning aboard a Long March 4B rocket from China's Taiyuan satellite launch center, the Brazilian ministry said in a statement. "There was a failure in the launch vehicle during flight and the satellite was not positioned in the right orbit. Preliminary evaluations suggest CBERS-3 has returned to Earth," it said.A2: ChinaA2: China Soft PowerChina’s soft power is lowJosh Rudolph, Staff Writer, December 10, 2013, “Global Times Poll Shows China’s Limited Soft Power,” China Digital Times, , Accessed 12/13/2013People around the world see China as “confident”, “belligerent” and “arrogant”, state-run media reported yesterday in an unusually direct survey of attitudes towards the country. Only 13 per cent of respondents in the poll by the?Global Times?newspaper described China as “peaceful”, a sign that Beijing’s territorial disputes with its Asian neighbours have taken a toll on its image. It also concluded that “the closer you are to China, the more likely you are to have a negative view of it”. With the exception of rivals such as the US or Japan, state-run media coverage of relations with other countries normally concentrates on the positive, and it is rare for criticism of China to be reported. But in the survey of 14,400 people in 14 countries, 30 per cent of respondents called China “confident” in international affairs, with 29 per cent describing it as “belligerent”, while “complicated” was chosen by 28 per cent. “People also describe China with words such as ‘tough’, ‘arrogant’ and ‘co-operative’,” the paper added, with each of them chosen by about 25 per cent of respondents. China Wants PeaceChina will concentrate on peaceful relations with major powers in 2014Zachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “China to Prioritize Great Power Relations in 2014,” The Diplomat, , Accessed 12/20/2013According to an?English-language report?on the speech carried by all of China’s major state media providers, Foreign Minister Wang Yi indicated that China will prioritize ties to great powers during 2014. “China will further build a framework for its relationships with big powers, which should feature positive interactions and healthy development,” Wang was quoted as saying in the report. “China will build a new type of relationship with the United States with increased results of cooperation, and expand cooperation with Russia in various fields.” The report indicated that China considers the U.S., Russia and the European Union as the big powers of the world, other than itself.Chinese foreign policy is driven by analysts who attach high importance on peaceful relations with the U.S. & major powersZachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “China to Prioritize Great Power Relations in 2014,” The Diplomat, , Accessed 12/20/2013Wang’s suggestion that China will prioritize great power relations in the coming year suggests there could be a quick improvement in Sino-U.S. ties. In his most recent book, George Washington University Professor David Shambaugh?writes that?there is a distinct group of foreign policy analysts in China today who advocate prioritizing ties to major powers. Scholars within this group thus argue that: “China should concentrate its diplomacy on managing its relations with the world’s major powers and blocs—the United States, Russia, perhaps the European Union—while paying relatively less attention to the developing world or multilateralism.?Daguo shi shouyao?(major powers are of primary importance) are their watchwords.” Shambaugh notes that scholars who adhere to this thinking tending to be experts on the U.S., Russia, or the EU, and stress the importance of maintaining strong ties to each of these countries and institutions. “Analysts in this group often see the Sino-U.S. relationship as the ‘key of the keys,’” Shambaugh writes, “thus arguing that maintaining harmonious ties with Washington should be the number one priority in Chinese diplomacy.”A2: Diplomatic CapitalUniqueness Answers – U.S. Credibility Low Now (Arab World)The U.S. has no credibility in the Arab world. The Iran deal is driving allies awayCon Coughlin,?Defence Editor,?December 8, 2013, “'Schizophrenic' US foreign policy pushing Arab states toward Russia, Bahrain warns,” The Telegraph, , Accessed 12/10/2013America’s “schizophrenic” approach to the Middle East could result in many key Arab states deciding to align themselves more closely with Russia, the rulers of Bahrain warned on Sunday. In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph, Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, the Crown Prince of Bahrain, warned that Barack Obama's administration would lose influence in the region if it persisted with what a “transient and reactive” foreign policy. There has been a sharp rise in tensions between Washington and several major Arab states in the wake of last month’s controversial interim agreement with Iran over its nuclear programme.Arab countries are turning toward Russia because they are a more reliable partnerCon Coughlin,?Defence Editor,?December 8, 2013, “'Schizophrenic' US foreign policy pushing Arab states toward Russia, Bahrain warns,” The Telegraph, , Accessed 12/10/2013Citing President Obama’s handling of the recent crisis over Syria’s chemical weapons, which allowed Russian President Vladimir Putin to seize the initiative, Sheikh Salman said some states were now seriously reviewing their relations with the US. “The Russians have proved they are reliable friends,” said Sheikh Salman, referring to Mr Putin’s diplomatic intervention to prevent Western military action against Bashar al-Assad. “As a result some states in the region have already started to look at developing more multilateral relations rather than just relying on Washington. America seems to suffer from schizophrenia when it deals with the Arab world.”Uniqueness Answers – Castro Handshake Undermined DiplomacyShaking hands with Castro was the latest episode in Obama’s continual degradation of U.S. diplomacyBen Boychuk, Staff Writer, December 13, 2013, “Handshake sends world the wrong message,” Denver Post, Accessed 12/13/2013, 's not kid ourselves about Cuba, Raul Castro or his brother, Fidel. Cuba remains a strident enemy of the United States. The Castro brothers are thugs who continue to support anti-American causes — including terrorism — around the globe, even as their repressive "socialist paradise" slides further into misery. President Obama's handshake with Raul in South Africa matters because dictators love nothing more than the publicity and legitimacy such symbols confer. The leader of the world's greatest democracy warmly shaking hands with one of the last holdout communist regimes on the planet sends an unmistakable message: He's OK. He's one of us. That's the trouble with this president: He sends all the wrong messages to all the wrong people. From his "reset" with Russia and his "pivot to Asia," to his shameful "red line" over chemical weapons in Syria, Obama has squandered U.S. power and prestige with a lot of empty talk and confusing, impotent gestures.Embargo Link TurnThe embargo undermines U.S. diplomatic effectivenessBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, , consider the rising costs to the U.S. of sticking to its course. This year at the United Nations, 188 countries voted to condemn the U.S. embargo. Even Israel, the one country that supported the U.S., has commercial ties with Cuba. At the recent World Trade Organization talks, Cuba led a group of Latin American nations that?sideswiped?a trade agreement because it didn’t include a provision that would invalidate the embargo. The opposition to the embargo not only looms over U.S. diplomacy in Latin America, but also energizes the hemisphere’s leftist bloc, led by Venezuela. From telecoms and consumer goods to agriculture, U.S. companies risk losing out on Cuba’s nascent market.A2: Iran Deal – Saudi Proliferation TurnsIran deal is pushing Saudi Arabia toward proliferation nowDaniel Wiser, Staff Writers, November 25, 2013, “Experts: Interim Iran Agreement Could Increase Nuclear Proliferation,” The Washington Free Beacon, , Accessed 12/17/2013Experts say the interim agreement reached between Iran and world powers could increase the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East despite assurances to the contrary by the Obama administration. The deal agreed to in Geneva on Sunday eases financial sanctions on Iran in return for partial suspensions of its uranium enrichment, but critics?say?the constraints will only increase the country’s nuclear breakout time from about a month to two months and allow weapons research to continue. U.S. allies in the region have come out in staunch opposition to the agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?called?it “a historic mistake.” Officials from Saudi Arabia?said?they “worry that Iran is not being sincere” and expressed concerns that the deal could permit Iran to “widen their influence in the region” and “become a bigger threat.” The trepidation among allies is a cause for concern in light of reports that Saudi Arabia could pursue its own nuclear program in response, William Martel, professor of international security studies at Tufts University’s Fletcher School and an expert on nonproliferation, said in an interview.A2: Food PricesGlobal food prices will decline next year due to rising supplies and stable demandThe Business Standard, Staff Writer, December 19, 2013, “Food prices will decline next year due to high supplies,” , Accessed 12/22/2013Food and non-food commodity prices world over are expected to remain either flat or show a declining trend in the next one year, largely due to rising supplies and stable demand. According to the latest commodity prices outlook report of the International Monetary Fund, prices of rice,?edible oil?and crude oil?could soften in the next few months. The report said the likelihood of per-barrel prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil falling below $90 and Brent crude falling below $100 in the next one year is about 40 per cent, compared to 50 per cent a month before. But, the risk of WTI rising above $150 a barrel has declined to 0.8 per cent from 0.6 per cent, the report said. It said the price of wheat in the international market is expected to be $240-260 per tonne. Rice is expected to slide from $551 a tonne to around $506 a tonne in the next one year.A2: OilA2: Venezuela Prices ScenarioVenezuelan default is unlikelyJason Mitchell, Staff Writer, December 2013, “Fears of Venezuelan instability increase,” EuroMoney, Accessed 12/19/2013, says that although the authorities are still expressing willingness to make some economic adjustments after the elections, the risk of an incomplete adjustment is increasing. Such deficient measures would likely maintain the distortions that have been causing the deterioration of Venezuela’s fundamentals. Despite the growing economic problems, most analysts believe that Venezuela is unlikely to default on any of its debt and most recommend that investors stay on the short part of the oil company’s yield curve (PDVSA 2014), which continues to offer an attractive yield.Venezuelan economic collapse is inevitable in the status quo. Government policies have entrenched macroeconomic imbalances that trickle down independent of oilMoody’s Investor Service, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “Rating Action:?Moody's downgrades Venezuela to Caa1; outlook negative,” , Accessed 12/19/2013Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the Government of Venezuela's local and foreign currency ratings to Caa1 from B1 and B2 respectively. The outlook on both ratings remains negative. The key drivers for the action are: 1. Increasingly unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances; and 2. Materially higher risk of an economic and financial collapse. The downgrade reflects Moody's view that Venezuela is facing increasingly unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances, including a skyrocketing inflation and a sharp depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. As government policies have exacerbated these problems, the risk of an economic and financial collapse has greatly increased.Inflation is out of control having crossed the 50% mark. The parallel exchange rate has risen to 64 bolivares to the dollar -- 10 times the official rate - from 17.5 at year-end 2012. Widespread shortages of various categories of goods have forced the government to ramp up imports. Venezuela's external position has deteriorated as well. The current account surplus shrank by 35% through the past three quarters relative to the same period last year, and liquid financial assets continue to decline. Though the country still has a substantial amount of gold reserves and other liquid assets, foreign exchange reserves have reached perilously low levels. Growing macroeconomic imbalances and distortions have taken a severe toll on growth. While the economy has been able to escape a recession, GDP growth was an anemic 1.4% through the first three quarters of 2013.Oil prices are only part of the problem. Maduro’s economic policies are to blameMatt Egan, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “Strong-Arm Policies Leave Venezuela Teetering on the Brink of Collapse,” FOXBusiness, , Accessed 12/19/2013While tame oil prices have been a key contributor to Venezuela’s precarious position, S&P pointed the finger squarely at Caracas. “The downgrade is based on the growing radicalization of economic policy over the last two months in the context of a sustained decline in international reserves and the continued high levels of political polarization,” S&P wrote in its report on Dec. 13. On Nov. 19, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro signed a law that passed Congress and delegated special powers to the president, including the ability to govern by decree over a broad swath of the economy for one year.A2: Refineries – Mexico Still DependentDespite new changes, Mexico will still be dependent on U.S. refineriesJude Webber, Staff Writer, December 20, 2013, “Christmas cheer for Mexico,” beyondbrics (Financial Times blog), , Accessed 12/21/2013But back to energy. Note to the government: manage those expectations. Is it entirely wise to be bombarding TV with adverts about how energy reform will deliver cheaper electricity and gas bills, and create lots of new jobs, if Mexico is facing a transitional year ahead. The new oil wealth fund, to administer oil revenue, won’t be up and running for a year. A lot will change in 2014, but Pemex, the state oil company, will still be tied to the nation’s financial apron strings for some time to come. Just how fast those cheaper electricity bills will come is hard to say. What else won’t change overnight? Well, Mexico will – indeed experts say should – continue to import cheap natural gas from the US. But it is also reliant on US refining – it imports half its petrol, remember. Will Pemex do a refinery joint-ventrue in the US perhaps?A2: Prices – Long-term trend of declineOil prices will continue to slide through 2017Clifford Krause and Stanley Reed, Staff Writers, December 17, 2013, “Surge Seen in U.S. Oil Output, Lowering Gasoline Prices,” New York Times, , Accessed 12/21/2013Domestic oil production will continue to soar for years to come, the Energy Department predicted on Monday, scaling to levels not seen in nearly half a century by 2016. The annual outlook by the department’s Energy Information Administration was cited by experts as confirmation that the United States was well on its way — far faster than anticipated even a year ago — to achieving virtual energy independence. The?report predicted?that the increase in United States production would contribute to a decline in the world oil benchmark price over the next few years to $92 a barrel in 2017 from a 2012 average of $112 a barrel, which should translate into lower prices at the pump for consumers.U.S. oil production will dramatically increase in 2014—Offsets any link to the Aff.Daniel Tencer, Staff Writer, December 17, 2013, “U.S. Oil Production To Grow Faster Than Thought, Threatening Oilsands,” The Huffington Post Canada, , Accessed 12/21/2013Domestic U.S. oil production is expected to grow much faster than was thought just a few months ago, according to a new report from the U.S. federal government, placing an even larger question mark on the future of Canada’s oilsands. The?U.S. Energy Information Administration’s preliminary outlook for 2014?predicts U.S. oil imports next year will be one million barrels per day less than previously forecast. By way of illustration, Alberta’s total oil exports to the U.S. were?1.3 million barrels per day in 2011.A2: PoliticsCUBA/Political Capital UQ Answers – Engagement NowObama is diplomatically engaging Cuba now, which should be enough to cause the linkDavid Wickham, Staff Writer, December 2, 2013, “Wickham: Obama thaws U.S.-Cuba relations,” USA Today, Obama administration's subtle engagement of Cuba also might account for keeping Edward Snowden?out of Cuba. According to a Russian newspaper report, the rogue U.S. intelligence analyst now languishes in Russia because of Cuba's refusal in August to allow him to fly from Moscow to Havana, where he was expected to take aconnecting flight?to an exile in Venezuela, Nicaragua or Bolivia. It's this diplomatic push and pull that Obama hopes will produce the meaningful change that the chest-beating policies of a long succession of U.S. presidents failed to bring about in Cuba. CUBA/Terrorist List – Political Capital AnswersCuba doesn’t sponsor terrorism and the status quo undermines anti-terrorism efforts. Obama can take Cuba off the terrorist list without using political capitalBloomberg News, Editors, December 15, 2013, “Obama Needs More Than a Handshake With Cuba,” Accessed 12/17/2013, if Obama is unwilling to expend the political capital to get Congress to repeal or rewrite the laws governing the embargo, he can still change Cuba policy for the better with a few strokes of his pen. He could start by taking Cuba off the State Department’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. As the department’s 2011 and 2012 terrorism reports note, there is “no indication that the Cuban government provided weapons or paramilitary training to terrorist groups.” Keeping it on the list just undermines support for the larger anti-terrorist cause.CUBA – Cuban-American Lobby AnswersThere is a positive climate for deeper engagement. The new generation of Cuba Americans want cooperationChris Combs, policy researcher at the Inter-American Dialogue, December 13, 2013, “Stop Pretending the Obama-Castro Handshake Meant Anything,” PolicyMic, , Accessed 12/13/2013Positively, there are signs that change may be on the horizon. Both the?Castro?and?Obama administrations have eased travel restrictions between the two countries, and in the all-important swing state of Florida, there is increasing appetite for engagement. Although over 60% of the Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County?support?the embargo, the figure drops precipitously — to roughly 40% — for those under 44 years-old. Though a vested anti-Castro lobby remains, a new generation of Cuban-Americans may finally signal a new era between Havana and Washington. More bilateral cooperation and a concerted effort from both governments to improve human rights and democracy; now?that?is something Nelson Mandela would have loved to have seen. GITMO – Congress Just Acted / Non-uniqueCongress just reduced restrictions to closing GITMOAndrea Prasow, senior national security counsel and advocate in Human Rights Watch's US Program, December 21, 2013, “Easing restrictions in Guantanamo 'a promising sign',” Human Rights Watch, , Accessed 12/22/2013Congress has spent the last few years trying to make it harder to close Guantanamo. But for the first time they have actually cut back on the restrictions they had imposed on the administration. The administration has always had the ability to close Guantanamo. But these restrictions served as a serious hurdle. And it's a promising sign that they are being eased.The push for GITMO closure is gaining momentum. Detainees are being repatriatedCharlie Savage, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “Two Saudi Prisoners Sent Home From Guantánamo,” New York Times, , Accessed 12/22/2013Two Saudi men held by the United States without trial for nearly 12 years at the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, have been repatriated, the?Pentagon said Monday. In addition, a?Sudanese news agency reported?that its government expects the last two Sudanese nationals at Guantánamo to be flown on an American aircraft to Khartoum, arriving by Wednesday morning. If those transfers take place, they and the just-completed Saudi transfers would reduce the detainee population to 158. The moves showed that the Obama administration’s recent push to winnow the population of lower-level detainees, which stagnated after restrictions were imposed by Congress, appears to be gaining momentum. Over the summer, President Obama appointed new envoys — Clifford Sloan at the State Department and Paul M. Lewis at the Pentagon — to revitalize the effort.A2: Farm Bill – No Food ShortageTheir impact is just food supply alarmism and studies disproveCharles Layne, Editorial Writer, December 21, 2013, “Why do we even need a farm bill?,” Washington Post, , Accessed 12/22/2013Food-supply alarmism is a staple theme of ag-lobby propaganda. The menace this year is a spike in milk prices —?to $8 a gallon!?— if there's no farm bill and the government is forced to buy up the supply, per an obscure 1949 law. A recent report in?Time?explains that this is overblown, partly because the agriculture secretary can delay purchases and partly because other relevant costs, such as transportation, won’t be affected.The U.S. food supply and exports are growing rapidly and could withstand a natural disasterCharles Layne, Editorial Writer, December 21, 2013, “Why do we even need a farm bill?,” Washington Post, , Accessed 12/22/2013Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts record farm net income of?$131?billion in 2013, spread among many fewer farms than we had in the 1930s. U.S. farms?export?about a quarter of what they produce in a typical year, according to the?American Farm Bureau Federation. The cause of this abundance is simple: U.S. farms produce 262?percent more food than they did in 1950 while using essentially the same quantities of labor, seeds, feed and fertilizer, the Farm Bureau says. In 1950, the?average dairy cow?produced 5,300 pounds of milk; today, she gives 22,000 pounds. U.S. agriculture is so productive that even natural disaster doesn’t threaten food supply as much as it once did.A2: RussiaRelations Low NowU.S.-Russian relations are headed for another Cold War. Cooperation is at a standstillJames Stavridis, retired 4-star Navy admiral who serves today as the 12th Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, December 17, 2013, “Cool War Rising: With Washington and Moscow caught in a deteriorating relationship, is conflict inevitable?,” Foreign Policy, , Accessed 12/19/2013Rising tensions in the relationship between the United States and Russia are beginning to cause a "Cool War" -- a sort of Cold War-lite -- that threatens both Washington and the entire global geopolitical system. Without a functioning relationship between Washington and Moscow, the chances of solving major challenges -- from Iran to Syria, the Arctic to Afghanistan -- decreases dramatically. Rather than accept the arc of a deteriorating relationship, the United States should actively seek every possible zone of cooperation we can find with Russia, despite the frustrations and setbacks. The list of key disagreements is long: One of the more nettlesome challenges is Syria, where the United States believes in an international solution with intervention as an option and the removal of Russia's ally Bashar al-Assad. Syria represents Russia's strongest link to the region and access to the strategically important Eastern Mediterranean, as well as a market for arms and intelligence cooperation.Conflict over the PGS program is exacerbating current tensions over NATO missile defenseVladimir Isachenkov, Staff Writer for the Associated Press, December 11, 2013, “The 'great equalizer': Russia may retaliate with nukes if it comes under conventional attack, official says,” The Province, comes+under+conventional+attack/9275841/story.html, Accessed 12/20/2013The Russian doctrine mirrors the American strategy during the Cold War, when the U.S. would not rule out using nuclear weapons first, because it feared it might have to do so in response to overwhelming conventional attack on western Europe by Soviet forces. Rogozin said that Russia is working on developing its own version of the "prompt global strike" weapons, but wouldn't give any details. The U.S. plans included modifying some of the existing nuclear-armed missiles to carry conventional warheads as well as designing new vehicles capable of travelling at least five times the speed of sound. Russian officials said that such U.S. weapons wouldn't fall under any restrictions but would have combat efficiency comparable to nuclear weapons, and thus should be included in any prospective nuclear arms reduction talks. Russian suspicions about the U.S. intentions have aggravated tensions caused by a dispute over the U.S.-led NATO missile defence program, which Moscow sees as a threat to its nuclear deterrent. Russia has increasingly relied on nuclear weapons in its military strategy to compensate for a post-Soviet decline in its conventional forces. The nation's military doctrine says it may use nuclear weapons to counter a nuclear attack on Russia or an ally, or a large-scale conventional attack that threatens Russia's existence. Rogozin's comment comes a day after President Vladimir Putin pledged to continue an ambitious weapons modernization program and to expand Russia's military presence in the Arctic region. Putin has pointed at the U.S. navy presence in the Arctic Ocean as one of the reasons behind the buildup, saying that Russia is concerned because it takes U.S. missiles just 15 to 16 minutes to reach Moscow from a submarine in the Barents Sea region.Internal Links Ans. – Small Tensions InevitableU.S.-Russian disagreements are inevitable, but recent cooperation proves superpower rivalry claims are falseFereshte Pezeshk, research assistant at San Francisco State University, December 17, 2013, “Future of U.S.-Russia power politics in the Middle East,” Tehran Times, , Accessed 12/20/2013As with the Syrian situation, there is not enough evidence suggesting much, if any, divergence between Russia and the United States’ goals regarding the future of an Iran nuclear deal or Iran-U.S. relations. This will lower the chances that Saudi Arabia can turn to Russia instead of the United States for military aid. The two countries follow different if not opposing goals in the region, which will make a shift of allegiance less likely.?On the other hand, regarding Israel, Netanyahu’s objections have been called overarching even inside Israel. In addition, over the years, Israel has invested so heavily in the United States and its policymakers and has become too dependent to simply want to look away and reach out to Russia or perhaps any other single country in order to replace the United States.?In Afghanistan too, despite the fact that most U.S. troops will leave by 2014, previous experience will cause Russia to be extremely cautious about any involvement. Egypt is the single relevant case to these speculations. Egypt is expanding ties with Russia after 40 years, while simultaneously looking at the United States with ever more suspicion. Nevertheless, this should come as no surprise, in international relations alliances change and shift; Iraq was a close ally of the United States before it became an archenemy. The geopolitics of the Middle East today is undoubtedly facing change. New alliances will be formed and an important factor in this realignment will be the stability of the region. Therefore, those who back radical forces may not find themselves included in the new order. In the case of Russia and the United States’ rivalry speculations, there will definitely be disagreements, as there have been in the past; but recent events have demonstrated that they share many common interests in the Middle East and such speculations are to be regarded warily.?Small disagreements are inevitable, but that does not prevent cooperationJames Stavridis, retired 4-star Navy admiral who serves today as the 12th Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, December 17, 2013, “Cool War Rising: With Washington and Moscow caught in a deteriorating relationship, is conflict inevitable?,” Foreign Policy, , Accessed 12/19/2013All of this will be challenging, especially for some on both sides of the U.S.-Russian relationship who favor a hard line. It would be easy, frankly, to drift from the current "Cool War" back toward the dim twilight of the long Cold War. Ivan Turgenev, the iconic Russian writer, said, "Circumstances define us; they force us onto one road or another, and then they punish us for it." We are not forced to walk either the path of endless tension or total cooperation. The trick for both the United States and Russia is to overcome the circumstances of our disagreements to find the path to better overall relations through specific zones of cooperation -- recognizing there will always be areas where we will not see things in the same way. Russia-U.S. relations are poisonous now and we have cooperation. This disproves the thesis of the disadvantageDmitry Trenin, (Interview) Head of the Moscow Carnegie Center,?December 15, 2013, “Russian-US relations become poisonous – expert,” Voice of Russia News, , Accessed 12/19/2013“I think we have a situation in which the relationship is getting more difficult, the atmosphere becomes more poisonous. It is interesting because, at the same time, there is a fair amount of very productive US-Russia collaboration on issues such as Syria, Iran and I can also add Afghanistan. It is a new quality to the relationship which is highly competitive, highly unequal, highly asymmetrical, it has elements of the collaboration but the atmosphere of the relationship is pretty much poisoned and I think we will have to live with this for some time,” he said.While trying to cooperate, both Putin and Obama continue to go tit-for-tatColleen Curry, Staff Writer, December 18, 2013, “Obama and Putin's Testy Relationship,” ABC News, Accessed 12/19/2013, It was the latest jab between two of the world's most powerful leaders with President Obama announcing this week that he would not attend the 2014 Olympics in Russia and would send, instead, openly gay U.S. athletes. Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin have gone tit-for-tat in public for months as the two countries have tried to negotiate many of the world's most difficult challenges: chemical weapons in Syria, the leaking of NSA security information by Edward Snowden, and human rights abuses around the world.***General Impacts & Adv. Scenarios***Biodiversity / SpeciesBiodiversity – Key to Human SurvivalProtecting every ecosystem possible is essential to human survivalReese Halter, PhD, Biology, December 13, 2013, “Why Biodiversity Matters,” Malibu Times, article_4fe268e4-6365-11e3-bf88-001a4bcf887a.html, Accessed 12/14/2013In order for 7.1 billion people (and growing to 8 billion by 2023) to exist on Earth, we require old growth forests and tropical jungles to provide fresh water, white clouds to reflect incoming solar radiation at the tropics, oxygen and habitats for all the critters.? Scientists must be allowed to study these magnificent ancient forests to understand how they work.?Accordingly, a moratorium on logging any ancient forests on Earth is requisite. Wild forests contain untold cancer fighting and pain-relieving medicines. In addition, big trees are the most remarkable carbon warehouses to have ever evolved on our planet! If we deprive a species of what it needs to live, it becomes extinct. Globally, over the past 50 years, thousands of species have gone extinct due to human population pressures and destruction of habitat from mining and logging. Conservation biology is a relatively new, exciting and challenging branch of science. The discipline is charged with the responsibility of maintaining biological diversity or the tapestry of life on our planet. ?Protecting all remaining wild ecosystems brimming with biodiversity -- in face of rapid?human-induced climate change -- is our salvation.Biodiversity – Deforestation High NowAmazon deforestation increased 28 percent last yearUPI News, Staff Writer, November 19, 2013, “In worrying reversal, deforestation up in Amazon rainforests,” United Press International, , Accessed 12/13/2013Amazon jungle deforestation increased by nearly a third in the past year, confirming fears of a reversal of past progress, Brazilian government figures show. Satellite data for a 12-month period ending in July 2013 showed deforestation in the region increased by 28 percent compared with a year earlier, driven largely by expanding farms and clearing of land around big infrastructure projects. A total of 2,250 square miles of land was cleared during the period. Scientists and environmentalists have been warning destruction was on the increase after progress in slowing it in past decades. "You can't argue with numbers," Marcio Astrini, coordinator for the Amazon campaign at the Brazilian chapter of Greenpeace told Britain's The Guardian. "This is not alarmist -- it's a real and measured inversion of what had been a positive trend."A2: Biodiversity – Species Loss Inevitable/Non-UniqueSea level rise and storms make 233 at risk species extinction inevitable in the U.S. aloneCenter for Biological Diversity, Staff Writers, December 10, 2013, “New Report: Rising Seas Threaten 233 Federally Protected Species,” , Accessed 12/14/2013Sea-level rise driven by climate change poses a deadly threat to 233 federally protected animal and plant species in 23 coastal states, according to a new scientific report from the Center for Biological Diversity, and U.S. wildlife protection agencies are not doing enough to protect at-risk species. For the “Deadly Waters” report, Center scientists analyzed data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service, as well as scientific literature. The Center found that 17 percent — 1 in 6 — of the nation’s threatened and endangered species are at risk from rising sea levels and storm surges. The report also details the specific danger to five of the species most threatened by sea-level rise.?Federal government protections are inadequate and sensitive species are at risk from climate changeCenter for Biological Diversity, Staff Writers, December 10, 2013, “New Report: Rising Seas Threaten 233 Federally Protected Species,” , Accessed 12/14/2013In a letter to the two wildlife agencies, Center scientists pointed out that the federal government’s existing wildlife policies offer little useful guidance or strategies for protecting endangered species from sea-level rise. The letter urges officials to revamp species-protection plans to focus on the threat.?“From Florida’s key deer to Hawaii’s monk seals, some of our most amazing creatures could be doomed as the oceans swallow up their last habitat and nesting sites,” said Dr. Shaye Wolf, the Center’s climate science director. “If we don’t move fast to cut carbon pollution and protect ecosystems, climate chaos could do tremendous damage to our web of life. Federal wildlife officials have to step up efforts to protect America’s endangered species from the deadly threat of rising seas.”?A2: Biodiversity – Economic Growth SolvesEconomic growth benefits biodiversityEmma Duncan, Staff Writer, September 14, 2013, “All creatures great and small,”?The Economist, p. 4.Endangered species have benefited from some of the concomitants of growth, too. Improved sanitation has made the planet healthier, as has regulation of pesticides. Cleaner air is better for biodiversity. As countries get richer, they tend to become more peaceful and better governed and their population growth slows down. Technological progress has improved life for other species, making conservation efforts more effective.A2: Biodiversity – Amazon Deforestation Ans.Amazon deforestation is decreasing nowEmma Duncan, Staff Writer, September 14, 2013, “All creatures great and small,”?The Economist, p. 4.The events in Paragominas have been repeated, in less dramatic ways, across much of the Brazilian Amazon. Deforestation has fallen steadily, from 28,000 sq km in 2004 to 5,000 in 2012. Whether this is a permanent victory or a temporary respite is not yet clear, but the fact that Brazil has succeeded in greatly reducing a seemingly unstoppable process of destruction raises hopes for the future of the rest of life on Earth.Brazilian agribusiness is driving massive Amazon deforestation nowDaniela Montalto, Staff Writer, November 18, 2013, “Amazon Deforestation Increases 28 Percent in One Year,” Ecowatch, , Accessed 12/13/2013Last week, the Brazilian government released annual figures for deforestation in the Amazon and the news is not good. A total of 5,843 square kilometres are estimated lost between August 2012 and July 2013, an increase in deforestation of 28 percent compared to the previous year. This sharp increase in deforestation in the Amazon is no surprise—all deforestation estimates released over the last year have shown we were headed in this direction. Last year, the government passed a new Forest Code, dramatically changing the environmental law that governs forest use in Brazil, including the Amazon. A strong agribusiness influence in the Brazilian Congress lead to a massive weakening of the Forest Code—a law that once helped protect the Amazon. Those who believed the empty promises that the new Forest Code would bring governance to the Amazon, that amnesty granted to environmental criminals would not have consequences and that farmers in the Amazon would be moved by the spirit of Brazilian citizenship and legal compliance, can now see the reality of the impact of the new law in the forest. The ‘growth-at-all-costs’ model, based on the expansion of the agricultural frontier and the establishment of large infrastructure projects in the Amazon provides a sharp contrast to the image the government wants to sell.Climate Change“Tipping Points” Theory GoodA new Academy of Sciences report proves “tipping points” theorySeth Borenstein, AP Science Writer, December 3, 2013, “Federal Study Warns of Sudden Climate Change Woes,” ABC News, , Accessed 12/14/2013Hard-to-predict sudden changes to Earth's environment are more worrisome than climate change's bigger but more gradual impacts, a panel of scientists advising the federal government concluded Tuesday. The 200-page report by the National Academy of Sciences looked at warming problems that can occur in years instead of centuries. The report repeatedly warns of potential "tipping points" where the climate passes thresholds, beyond which "major and rapid changes occur." And some of these quick changes are happening now, said study chairman James White of the University of Colorado. The report says abrupt changes like melting ice in the Arctic Ocean and mass species extinctions have already started and are worse than predicted. It says thousands of species are changing their ranges, seasonal patterns or in some cases are going extinct because of human-caused climate change. Species in danger include some coral; pika, a rabbitlike creature; the Hawaiian silversword plant and polar bears.IPCC / Alarmism BadEven the IPCC is backtracking on warming claims. Their impacts are alarmist and denied by the newest studiesJames M. Taylor, senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News,?November 23, 2013, “Global Warming Alarmism Denies Sound Science,” The Heartland Institute, Accessed 12/14/2013, following week, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fifth Assessment Report, which backtracks on many prior IPCC predictions and contradicts many of the most frequent assertions made by global warming activists. The IPCC report contradicts claims that global warming is causing more extreme weather, acknowledges global warming is occurring more slowly than the IPCC previously predicted, predicts less future warming than previous IPCC reports, and admits the lack of global warming this century defies nearly all computer models that predict rapid future warming. Several peer-reviewed studies published during recent weeks reinforced the lack of a global warming crisis. For example, a study in the peer-reviewed?Nature Climate Change?reported global warming is occurring more slowly than what was predicted by 114 of 117 climate models relied on by the IPCC and other government agencies. Real-world warming is occurring at merely half the pace projected by most climate models, the study found.Reducing CO2 Will Not Solve WarmingTemperatures would be constant or increase for 50 years after we stopped CO2 emissionsThomas Lukas Fr?licher, Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, and Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University,?Et al, November 24, 2013, “Continued global warming after CO2?emissions stoppage,” Nature Climate Change, , Accessed 12/14/2013Recent studies have suggested that global mean surface temperature would remain approximately constant on multi-century timescales after CO2?emissions are stopped. Here we use Earth system model simulations of such a stoppage to demonstrate that in some models, surface temperature may actually increase on multi-century timescales after an initial century-long decrease. This occurs in spite of a decline in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline in ocean heat uptake—a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline in global temperature. The reason is that the warming effect of decreasing ocean heat uptake together with feedback effects arising in response to the geographic structure of ocean heat uptake overcompensates the cooling effect of decreasing atmospheric CO2?on multi-century timescales. Our study also reveals that equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates based on a widely used method of regressing the Earth’s energy imbalance against surface temperature change?are biased. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the feedback effects associated with the magnitude and geographic distribution of ocean heat uptake therefore contributes substantially to the uncertainty in allowable carbon emissions for a given multi-century warming target.International Cooperation is KeyOnly international cooperation to end fossil fuel use can reverse climate changeDan Lashof, director of the?Climate and Clean Air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council,?December 3, 2013, “New Study Shows We Must Act Now on Climate Change,” National Resources Defense Council, , Accessed 12/14/2013“Hansen and his colleagues make a compelling case that we must end our reliance on fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. With less than one degree Celsius of global warming so far we are already seeing devastating effects on communities in the United States and around the world. As the International Energy Agency made clear today, without much stronger policies we will not only blow by the one degree limit urged by Hansen but the two degree limit embraced by governments around the world. That would be stunningly irresponsible and would violate our obligations to our children and future generations.? This is a train wreck we can still avoid. The warming signs are unmistakable and we have the know-how to heed them. The world needs to come together, quickly, to take serious actions to slow, stop and reverse climate change.”International Cooperation FailsJapan and Australian policies prove the global community is moving away from cooperation and progress on climate changeAlister Doyle, Staff Writer, November 20, 2013, “Climate Change Fight Getting Off Track After Major Global Setbacks In Japan And Australia, Study Finds,” Huffington Post, , Accessed 12/14/2013The world is getting further off track in limiting global warming with setbacks in Japan and Australia outweighing positive signals from the United States and China, a study showed on Wednesday. A Climate Action Tracker compiled by scientists said the world was headed for a temperature rise of 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times by 2100, against 3.1C (5.8F) if governments stuck to promised cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Governments meeting in Warsaw from Nov. 11-22 are trying to find ways to limit global warming to an agreed ceiling of less than 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial levels to avert more heatwaves, droughts, downpours and rising sea levels. "We are seeing a major risk of a further downward spiral in ambition, a retreat from action, and a re-carbonisation of the energy system led by the use of coal," said Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics. Wednesday's study, by Climate Analytics, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Ecofys, said Japan's decision last week to ease its 2020 greenhouse gas emissions goals made it harder to reach the global 2C goal. Japan said its original emissions goal of a 25 percent cut below 1990 levels was out of reach after its nuclear power industry was shuttered by the 2011 Fukushima disaster. The new goal is for a maximum 3 percent rise. Australia's new policies, shifting from an emissions trading scheme, would also marginally raise emissions, adding to a problem that many nations were failing to stick to curbs on emissions agreed in 2009.CO2 Good – AgricultureCO2 warming is boosting plant life across the globe, while unpredictable weather is decreasingJames M. Taylor, senior fellow for environmental policy at The Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News,?November 23, 2013, “Global Warming Alarmism Denies Sound Science,” The Heartland Institute, Accessed 12/14/2013, peer-reviewed?Geophysical Research Letters?reported Earth is undergoing substantial greening as a result of higher carbon dioxide levels and more-favorable weather conditions. Plant life is flourishing, and foliage is becoming more prevalent all across the globe as Earth warms, with the most impressive gains observed in arid regions bordering deserts. The western United States is among the big winners, with many regions in the U.S. West experiencing 30 percent or greater increases in foliage during the past 30 years. Mother Nature punctuated these reports and peer-reviewed studies with several exclamation points. Global hurricane frequency is undergoing a long-term decline, with global hurricane and tropical storm activity at record lows during the past several years. The year 2013 tied an all-time record for the latest formation of any Atlantic hurricane. The United States is benefiting from the longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane strike. Tornado activity is in long-term decline, with major tornado strikes (F3 or higher) showing a remarkable decline in recent decades. Nearly all locations included in the global soil moisture databank show long-term improvement, signaling a substantial decline in the frequency and severity of droughts.Studies prove CO2 is key to global agricultureCraig D. Idso, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, October 21, 2013, “The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide: Estimating the Monetary Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Global Food Production,” CO2 Science, , Accessed 12/10/2013Numerous studies conducted on hundreds of different plant species testify to the very real and measurable growth-enhancing, water-saving, and stress-alleviating advantages that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations bestow upon Earth’s plants. In commenting on these and many other CO2-related benefits, Wittwer (1982) wrote that “the ‘green revolution’ has coincided with the period of recorded rapid increase in concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and it seems likely that some credit for the improved [crop] yields should be laid at the door of the CO2 buildup.” Similarly, Allen et al. (1987) concluded that yields of soybeans may have been rising since at least 1800 “due to global carbon dioxide increases,” while more recently, Cunniff et al. (2008) hypothesized that the rise in atmospheric CO2 following deglaciation of the most recent planetary ice age, was the trigger that launched the global agricultural enterprise.CO2 boosts crop yields and makes plant more resistantCraig D. Idso, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, October 21, 2013, “The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide: Estimating the Monetary Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Global Food Production,” CO2 Science, , Accessed 12/10/2013Atmospheric CO2 enrichment also tends to enhance growth and improve plant functions in the face of environmental constraints. Conway and Toenniessen (2003), for example, describe how ameliorating four such impediments to plant productivity – soil infertility, weeds, insects and diseases, and drought – significantly boosts crop yields. Therefore, reducing the negative consequences of each of these yield-reducing factors via human ingenuity should boost crop productivity in an additive manner. And a continuation of the historical increase in the air’s CO2 content should boost crop productivity even more.U.S. dependence on foreign oil will continue to decline in through 2014. Domestic production will reach record highs over the next few yearsChristopher Helman, Staff Writer, December 16, 2013, “U.S. Energy Outlook: More Oil, More Gas, Less Carbon. Yay America!,” Forbes, , Accessed 12/17/2013The federal government’s Energy Information Administration is out today with an?early version?of its Annual Energy Outlook for 2014.?Their headline finding: that the United States will continue to grow less dependent on foreign oil as the miracle of our tight oil boom adds to supply and more efficient vehicles reduce demand. Yay America! By their reckoning, domestic crude oil production will continue its surge, adding another 800,000 barrels per day in 2014 and about the same in 2015. By 2016 we should reach 9.5 million barrels per day, approaching the historical high of 9.6 million bpd back in 1970. The boom won’t last forever, and will level off around 2020. But when domestic oil supplies do start slipping, we won’t feel it too much at first, because our vehicles will be using a lot less fuel.CO2 works in conjunction with technology advances to improve agricultural yieldsCraig D. Idso, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, October 21, 2013, “The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide: Estimating the Monetary Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Global Food Production,” CO2 Science, , Accessed 12/10/2013Advancements in technology and scientific expertise since the birth of the Industrial Revolution have led to vast improvements in agricultural yield and production values. More efficient machinery and improved plant cultivars, for example, paved the way toward higher crop yields and increased global food production. And with the ever-increasing population of the planet, the increase in food production was a welcome societal benefit. But what remained largely unknown to society at that time, was the birth of an ancillary aid to agriculture that would confer great benefits upon future inhabitants of the globe throughout the decades and centuries to come. And the source of that aid: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Ironically, however, the modern rise of the air’s CO2 content is currently viewed by many as a source of concern, not a benefit.Rising CO2 boosts plant yields and food suppliesCraig D. Idso, Ph.D. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, October 21, 2013, “The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide: Estimating the Monetary Benefits of Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on Global Food Production,” CO2 Science, , Accessed 12/10/2013At a fundamental level, carbon dioxide is the basis of nearly all life on Earth. It is the primary raw material or “food” utilized by the vast majority of plants to produce the organic matter out of which they construct their tissues, which subsequently become the ultimate source of food for nearly all animals and humans. Consequently, the more CO2 there is in the air, the better plants grow, as has been demonstrated in literally thousands of laboratory and field experiments. And the better plants grow, the more food there is available to sustain the entire biosphere.Economy (U.S.)U.S. Economy High Now – 2014 PredictveMultiple indicators prove the economy will be strong in 2014Don Lee and Shan Li, Staff Writers, December 16, 2013, “U.S. economic recovery is expected to gain strength in 2014,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 12/17/2013After six years of a gloomy recession and shaky recovery, the U.S. economy looks poised to regain its glow next year with stronger job growth, bigger income gains for more people and a resurgence of homeowners moving up into new digs. The overall economic outlook for the U.S. has improved sharply in recent weeks amid a string of surprisingly robust economic data: Businesses have stepped up hiring, new factory orders from abroad are at a two-year high and consumers have been flocking to car lots and restaurants.U.S. Job Growth High Now – 2014 PredictveThe number of U.S. jobs will significantly grow in 2014Don Lee and Shan Li, Staff Writers, December 16, 2013, “U.S. economic recovery is expected to gain strength in 2014,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 12/17/2013"We are looking for 2014 to be a better year overall in both sales and profits than 2013," he said. All in all, many economists now see economic growth climbing to a solid 3% next year, a significant improvement from the 2% average annual pace that the economy has been stuck on for the last 4 1/2 years. An acceleration to 3% would probably push up U.S. job growth to 250,000 a month on average, from a monthly average of 190,000 over the last 12 months, Kleinhenz said. At that pace, the nation would recover all the jobs lost in the recession by the end of 2014. And it would push down the jobless rate closer to the 5.5% to 6% range that some now see as the potential long-term unemployment rate. Global competition and the increasing role played by computers and other advanced technologies have reduced the need for mid-level workers with no special skills, which has forced some economists to rethink their old assumption that full employment meant no more than 4% or 5% joblessness.Unemployment will be low in 2014 because of the budget agreement and business confidenceDon Lee and Shan Li, Staff Writers, December 16, 2013, “U.S. economic recovery is expected to gain strength in 2014,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 12/17/2013"We could see the unemployment rate down to 6% this time next year," said Robert Kleinhenz, chief economist for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. That would be a full percentage point below the current rate and, in some analysts' views, close to full employment. Some experts say economic growth could be even stronger next year now that the House has approved the bipartisan two-year budget deal. Not only would the agreement undo most of the sequestration spending cuts in the short term, it would lower a major confidence hurdle for businesses, some of which complained that they have been hamstrung by the federal government's repeated budget standoffs and partisan warring.Housing Market Recovering / 2014 PredictiveThe housing market will significantly recover in 2014Don Lee and Shan Li, Staff Writers, December 16, 2013, “U.S. economic recovery is expected to gain strength in 2014,” Los Angeles Times, , Accessed 12/17/2013The coming year also could mark a new stage in the housing market's recovery: "2013 was the year of the investor," said Jed Kolko, chief economist at the real estate website Trulia, "but 2014 will be the year of the repeat home buyer." That would signal a return to a healthier housing market, fueled in significant part by existing owners who finally have regained enough home equity to seek bigger, better quarters. "Rising prices and a reduction in negative equity are bringing willing sellers back to the market," said Paul Diggle, an analyst at Capital Economics.India-Pakistan WarIndia-Pakistan Nuclear War ImpactsThe newest study proves that an Indo-Pak nuclear conflict would end civilizationAgence France Presse, Staff Writer, December 10, 2013, “Nuclear war between India and Pakistan ‘could end human civilisation’, study finds,” The National, , Accessed 12/10/2013A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people and effectively end human civilisation, a study said yesterday. Even if limited in scope, a conflict with nuclear weapons would wreak havoc in the atmosphere and devastate crop yields, with the effects multiplied as global food markets went into turmoil, the report said. Even if limited in scope, a conflict with nuclear weapons would wreak havoc in the atmosphere and devastate crop yields, with the effects multiplied as global food markets went into turmoil, the report said. The Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility released an initial peer-reviewed study in April 2012 that predicted a nuclear famine could kill more than a billion people.A nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause progressive extinction from firestorms, nuclear winter, and the decimation of global food suppliesIra Helfand, Staff Writer, December 10, 2013, “A nuclear threat far greater than Iran,” CNN, helfand-nuclear-disarmament/, Accessed 12/10/2013In fact, the humanitarian consequences of even a limited nuclear war, such as a conflict in South Asia between India and Pakistan, involving just 100 Hiroshima-size bombs -- less than 0.5% of the world's nuclear arsenal -- would put 2 billion people's lives and well-being at risk. The local effects would be devastating. More than 20 million people would be dead in a week from the explosions, firestorms and immediate radiation effects. But the global consequences would be far worse. The firestorms caused by this war would loft 5 million tons of soot high into the atmosphere, blocking out sunlight and dropping temperatures across the planet. This climate disruption would cause a sharp, worldwide decline in food production.?There would be?a 12% decline in U.S. corn production and a 15% decline in Chinese rice production, both lasting for a full decade. A staggering 31% decline in Chinese winter wheat production would also last for 10 years.The resulting global famine would put at risk 870 million people in the developing world who are already malnourished today, and 300 million people living in countries dependent on food imports.In addition, the huge shortfalls in Chinese food production would threaten another 1.3 billion people within China. At the very least there would be a decade of social and economic chaos in the largest country in the world, home to the world's second largest and most dynamic economy and a large nuclear arsenal of its own.Nuclear ProliferationNo Risk of New ProliferationExisting nuclear powers create deterrence and there’s no reason new powers would proliferateZachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 04, 2013, “Why Nuclear Weapons Don't Spread (Quickly),” The Diplomat, Accessed 12/17/2013, fact that states have by and large been uninterested in nuclear weapons is somewhat perplexing from a historic perspective. After all, what other revolutionary military technology hasn’t elicited strong interest from most states competing in the international system? At the same time, when one examines the properties of nuclear weapons more closely, the lack of interest is easier to understand. Nuclear weapons have basically served one purpose for states possessing them; namely, they have deterred others from challenging that state’s survival and other fundamental interests. But the nuclear era has also been characterized by a sharp decline in warfare and today fewer states face fundamental external threats to their existence. Given the high costs of building and maintaining a nuclear arsenal, it makes little sense to acquire nuclear weapons without such an existential threat.There is zero risk of a proliferation domino effect—too many variablesZachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 04, 2013, “Why Nuclear Weapons Don't Spread (Quickly),” The Diplomat, Accessed 12/17/2013, Scott Sagan?has pointed out, most of those citing ElBaradei omit the latter part of his statement about having the required fissile material. But this statement is crucial as only a handful of NNWS are capable of producing or otherwise procuring fissile material, which is necessary for a nuclear bomb. Moreover, thanks in no small part to?President Obama’s focus on nuclear security, the global availability of fissile material has been declining as the U.S. and its allies help remove fissile material from some states while downsizing the stockpiles in many others. Furthermore, compared with the Cold War era and even the 1990s, nuclear weapon holding and nuclear capable states are much less willing to sell NNWS crucial dual use technology that can be used to indigenously produce fissile material. Thus, contrary to common perception, there is no impeding nuclear domino about to fall.U.S. Soft Power & HegemonyA2: Soft Power – Credibility Low NowDrones in Asia are driving a wedge between the U.S. and alliesAlejandro Garcia De La Garza, Staff Writer, November 27, 2013, “World of Drones: How Unmanned Aircraft Are Extending American Hegemony,” , Accessed 12/10/2013Drones are beginning to become a source of tension in the region. Recently China flew its own drones near the Senkaku islands, giving rise to friction with Japan. The prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has given orders that any drones entering Japanese airspace which fail to exit are to be shot down--something China has declared will be perceived as a provocation and an act of war. The growth in drone bases and overseas stationing shows that drones are not exclusively deployed for targeted killings in the ‘war on terror’ but are part of a constantly expanding net of global surveillance . With the recent revelations as to the extent of NSA spying, allied to the CIA drone programme, it is evident that drones play a bigger role in intelligence and surveillance than ‘signature strikes’.World leaders see domestic problems as undermining U.S. foreign policy leadership nowDan Robinson, Staff Writer, December 21, 2013, “US Foreign Policy Challenges To Continue In 2014,” Eurasia Review, , Accessed 12/22/2013Daniel Serwer, at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, says in Syria Obama won a deal to remove chemical weapons without military action — but more is at stake. “There is a growing domination of the opposition by extremists who would pose a very serious problem for us if the Bashar al-Assad regime is ever to fall, and you’ve got the neighbors increasingly shaky, the state structure — Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon all at risk,” said Serwer. Whether Obama can remain focused on foreign policy is questionable, says Heather Conley at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Between the NSA scandal, health care, a government shutdown, many world leaders are wondering if President Obama can domestically overcome challenges even to focus on the challenges in the international arena,” she said.Decline of U.S. Hegemony Inevitable - ChinaChina rising makes the fall of U.S. dominance inevitable and happening nowACEDI, Staff Writer, December 1, 2013, “Are we on the Brink of a New Cold War? U.S. – China Relations in a New?Century,” Columbian International Law School Students, , Accessed 12/10/2013If history has taught us anything, it is that all empires eventually fall. Today we are entering into a very significant moment in history. After three decades of undisputed American hegemony, China is quickly reclaiming a regional status it had lost hundreds of years ago. In the meantime, the U.S. is shifting its attention away from the warring Middle East, towards East Asia. This, some scholars argue, is the beginning of a major geostrategic engagement between the two giants. But, can the U.S.–China relations really be described with a zero-sum game? Is this the beginning of the end of the American hegemony? Or is the world of today ready for pacific bipolarism? Well, one thing is for sure; there’s never been a time in which the two sides of the equation were so interdependent. China and the United States are like two giants tied to one another.TerrorismA2: Dirty BombsBarriers prevent a credible risk of dirty bombs, especially cobaltMax Fisher, master's degree in security studies from Johns Hopkins University, December 5, 2013, “The real danger of loose nuclear materials is accidents, not dirty bombs,” Washington Post, , Accessed 12/14/2013We probably do not need to be worried about cobalt-60 or something like it being used to make a dirty bomb. "Theoretically it would be possible," Hibbs explained, "but there is one drawback. The stuff is incredibly hot. You could get a fatal dose in something like minutes if you hold it in your hand." And cobalt is a metal. Anyone who wanted to use it for a bomb would have to somehow crush or process it; doing that without immediately suffering fatal radiation poisoning would require sophisticated lab equipment and expertise. "Could someone do that? If they were well prepared and organized, the answer is probably yes," Hibbs acknowledged. "But the point is that you don’t make a 'dirty bomb' with cobalt-60 by simply grabbing a chunk of the metal and wrapping some plastic explosives around it. If you do that, you'll most likely poison or kill yourself and you won't likely effectively disperse the cobalt."The risk of a dirty bomb is declining. The market is controlled by government informantsThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Glowing in the dark; Dirty bombs,” p. pared with a thermonuclear detonation, the destructive power of even a large amount of conventional explosives wrapped in nuclear fuel or other radiological material is rather tame, notes Thomas Reed, who has designed two American nuclear weapons. But a "dirty bomb" (technically a radiological-dispersal device) is far easier to build than a nuclear weapon and would spread not just radiation but panic, adds Mr Reed, who later served as secretary of the air force. Little wonder, then, that nerves were rattled after the theft on December 2nd of a lorry carrying highly radioactive cobalt-60 from a radiation-therapy unit in Tijuana to a nuclear-waste facility near Mexico City. Nuclear and radiological materials slipped out of regulatory control 2,331 times between 1995 and the start of this year, according to the Incident and Trafficking Database compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The materials are widely used in industry, agriculture and medicine. They are kept in many poorly guarded X-ray and cancer-treatment clinics. Such places are often not overseen with terrorism in mind. They have even been bought by crooks as front operations, says Rajiv Nayan, of India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Raids on abandoned uranium mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo are more frequent, according to that country's General Atomic-Energy Commission. The problem is most acute in the former Soviet Union: in Ukraine alone, roughly 2,500 organisations use radiological materials. In Georgia a counter-trafficking unit set up by the interior ministry seven years ago has arrested two or three teams smuggling radiological material every year save 2009. The lure of profits is so strong that some ex-cons get back into the business, says Archil Pavlenishvili, leader of the unit. Interpol has said such trafficking is growing: an acute "real threat to global security".It all sounds scary enough. But the reality has been less so. Moreover, by many accounts the most plausible dangers appear to be declining. For a start, an "overwhelming" number of buyers turn out to be undercover cops, says Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank. A sizeable network of informers helps Georgia's interior ministry to keep a close eye on the four or five cells in the country currently trying to obtain or sell radiological material, says Mr Pavlenishvili. When one of them is lining up a potential deal, it is almost always because his or a foreign unit is preparing a sting operation, he adds. Mr Pavlenishvili's unit has not got wind of a single profitable sale--Georgia's underworld makes its money on other crimes such as drug-running.No risk of a terrorist dirty bombThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Glowing in the dark; Dirty bombs,” p. 67.Considering the growing risk and persistent lack of money to be made, it is amazing that smugglers continue to give it a shot, says Lyudmila Zaitseva, an academic working on a University of Salzburg database on nuclear and radiological trafficking. Many traffickers no doubt reckon that terror groups will pay dearly for dirty-bomb ingredients. After all, counterterrorism officials citing seized al-Qaeda documents have said as much. Yet although a terrorist-made dirty bomb of mass destruction cannot be excluded, it remains unlikely. For one thing, rooting around to obtain dangerously radioactive material is a great way to attract the attention of the authorities. A bust could doom a painstakingly assembled terror cell.Suppliers are cracking down to prevent radiological theftThe Economist, Staff Writer, December 14, 2013, “Glowing in the dark; Dirty bombs,” p. 67.Russia and other countries have greatly tightened control over radiological materials since thefts peaked in the early post- Soviet years. No highly enriched weapons-usable uranium or plutonium has been reported stolen since the 1990s, according to Ms Zaitseva. (The small amount intercepted since then appears to have been stolen earlier.) Losses of less hazardous low-enriched fissile material have fallen sharply. Employers are getting better at identifying potential risks, says Ray Landis of the Nuclear Energy Institute in Washington, DC. Employees' travel itineraries are reviewed. An industry-wide computer system flags workers whose changing circumstances might lead to stress or need of money, perhaps to prevent a home foreclosure or to keep custody of a child.U.S. medical equipment is secureLinda Carroll, NBC News contributor, December 4, 2013, “What's the risk? Radioactive medical material's biggest threat is to unwitting thieves,” NBC News, , Accessed 12/14/2013Should we be worrying about the devices in hospitals? How secure are they? Very secure, experts told NBC News. “Starting in 2001 after 9/11, the possibility that these sources could be used for non medical purposes has been of concern,” Wahl said. “Security is much better now than it was 15 years ago.” Beyond that, many institutions are turning to devices that don’t depend on radioactive isotopes, both Wahl and Iwamoto said. At UCLA, “they are quite secure,” Iwamoto said. “The are protected by passwords and only people finger printed with FBI background checks are allowed access. Besides, the material is encased in extremely heavy shielding making it very difficult to steal. I’m sure they weigh a couple of tons.”Water WarsConflicts LikelyWater shortages are becoming more widespread, making multiple conflicts inevitableJoel Brinkley, Hearst professional in residence at?Stanford University, November 22, 2013, “Avert water wars - build desalination plants,” San Francisco Chronicle, , Accessed 12/17/2013A recent NASA study warned of an "alarming rate of decrease in total water storage" in Iraq's "Tigris and Euphrates river basins, which currently have the second-fastest rate of groundwater storage loss on Earth, after India." The report warned that water scarcity could become another cause of?conflict. Egypt's military threats against Ethiopia begin to make sense when you realize that Egypt's 84 million people draw 95 percent of their water from the Nile River. A common saying is that without the Nile there is no?Egypt. The?U.S. House of Representatives?recently held a hearing on water shortages and other threats in Central Asia, and Rep.?Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa (Orange County), warned of another potential conflict, quoting Uzbekistan's president,?Islam Karimov: "Uzbekistan will even use weapons if necessary" against its northern neighbor Kazakhstan "to get the water passing through (Kyrgyzstan) territory that we intend to accumulate in?reservoirs."Water Wars Inevitable – Climate ChangeWater wars are inevitable because of climate changeJoel Brinkley, Hearst professional in residence at?Stanford University, November 22, 2013, “Avert water wars - build desalination plants,” San Francisco Chronicle, , Accessed 12/17/2013Get ready for the water?wars. Most of the world's population takes water for granted, just like air - two life-sustaining substances. After all, the human body is nearly two-thirds?water. But a Hindustan Times blogger said that in India right now, as in so many other places around the globe, drinkable water has become such a precious commodity that it's dragging the world into "water wars to follow the ones for the control of fuel?oil." Climate change is drying up lakes and rivers almost everywhere. In Australia, for example, an unprecedented heat wave brought on massive wildfires and critical water?shortages. As water grows scarce, more countries are building dams on rivers to hog most of the water for themselves, depriving the nations downstream. Already, Egypt had threatened to bomb the Grand Renaissance Dam upstream on the Nile River in?Ethiopia.Water Scarcity Does Not Lead to War – RepresentationsTheir water wars scenario is driven by media sensationalism and institutional bias. There is no evidence that water shortage lead to conflictFrédéric Julien, Research Scholar at the University of Ottawa, December 15, 2013, “Explaining the persistent appeal of ‘water wars’ scenarios,” Global Water Forum, , Accessed 12/17/2013Just two weeks before the beginning of the International Year of Water Cooperation (2013), the US Intelligence Community warned that ‘[w]ater may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030’, to the point that militarised ‘interstate conflict cannot be ruled out’. Though cautiously couched, this warning lends a surprising credence to the prospect of ‘water wars’. Indeed, a review of the academic literature shows that ‘an impressive research effort […] has, by and large, led to the conclusion that there is no substantive evidence for the water wars claim’.?Already, some bleak prophecies have passed their expiry date without materialising. There are many reasons behind the continuous appeal of water wars scenarios?– notably, the existence of a widespread appetite for sensational stories as well as incentives for many actors to tell them?–, but their intuitive plausibility could be a key factor. After all, one needs only to imagine a drying up well surrounded by thirsty people to grasp the potential of violence related to the control of water. States, however, are not biological persons: they do not have clear and imperative water needs.Water scarcity is not a cause of war. Their framing of water wars encourage inter-state mistrust and distracts from the real consequencesFrédéric Julien, Research Scholar at the University of Ottawa, December 15, 2013, “Explaining the persistent appeal of ‘water wars’ scenarios,” Global Water Forum, , Accessed 12/17/2013This is not to say that everything is for the best on the blue planet. Rather, one should not reason in hydrocentric terms and ‘[…] conceptually jump from the necessity for water in human life to water as the determining factor in all decision-making and political choices’.?There is no particular reason to focus on water scarcity as one of the main risk factors for future wars. Worse, framing water as a ‘national security issue’ can only nourish mistrust and rigidity between states and distract us from the actual consequences of water scarcity: socioeconomic hardship and ecological degradation.?These problems are serious and urgent enough without any extra sensationalism.Water Scarcity Does Not Lead to War – No ScenarioStates will not go to war over water. Even in the Middle East, the importance of water is fadingFrédéric Julien, Research Scholar at the University of Ottawa, December 15, 2013, “Explaining the persistent appeal of ‘water wars’ scenarios,” Global Water Forum, , Accessed 12/17/2013Admittedly, the decision to go to war is not reducible to such dry cost-benefit analysis. Water wars might still be conceivable on some political or ideological ground. In practice however, states are not obsessed with water the way thirsty individuals are (and have to be). Although often dubbed ‘our most precious resource’, water is not the new oil; water is not at the centre of world capitalism.?In the Middle East, where water wars are supposedly more probable than anywhere else, researcher Jan Selby even observed that ‘[…] with the waning economic importance of agriculture, water has become (and will continue to become) less and less central to the political economy’.There is no credible scenario for inter-state war over water. The most likely scenario is home to NBI cooperationFrédéric Julien, Research Scholar at the University of Ottawa, December 15, 2013, “Explaining the persistent appeal of ‘water wars’ scenarios,” Global Water Forum, , Accessed 12/17/2013When looking at the world map, one quickly realises how difficult it is to point out a country where the state elite would have both the desire and the capacity to capture and control an important source of water on foreign soil. The most probable war-like scenario might be for Egypt, a regional power highly dependant on the Nile River, to bombard some hydraulic infrastructure upstream in Ethiopia to make sure that this country does not divert too much water.?Yet, interstate relations in the Nile region are far from having reached this stage. Indeed, beyond their sometimes bellicose rhetoric, the Nile riparian countries are currently engaged in the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), a partnership supported by the international community which aims to establish a cooperative framework for the management of the basin. The NBI may be progressing slowly, but it is a genuinely positive development in regard to regional peace.Water Scarcity Does Not Lead to War – Coop More LikelyThe Dead Sea Deal proves water scarcity doesn’t lead to warBryan Walsh, Senior Editor, December 10, 2013, “New Mideast Pipeline Deal Shows Why Water Doesn’t Start Wars,” Time, , Accessed 12/17/2013But even if the Dead Sea deal is less than historic, it’s still a deal, hammered out by entities that usually have a hard time even speaking to each other. And it’s a reminder that contrary to the much-repeated phrase that “the next world war will be fought over water,” similar deals tend to be the rule with international disputes over water, not the exception. Far from being a source of violent conflict—like religion or oil—water is something that even bitter rivals can usually sit down and discuss, however reluctantly.Water Scarcity Does Not Lead to War – Empirically Denied / GleickWater wars are empirically deniedBryan Walsh, Senior Editor, December 10, 2013, “New Mideast Pipeline Deal Shows Why Water Doesn’t Start Wars,” Time, , Accessed 12/17/2013But when it comes to actual armed conflict—as opposed to wars of words—I’m sorry to say that Mr. Twain has it wrong. That’s what science journalist Helen Barnaby discovered when she began work a number of years ago on a proposed book about water wars. In the course of her research, Barnaby discovered that there hasn’t been an actual war between two nations over water?for about?4,500?years, back when Lagash and Umma, two Mesopotamian city-states located in what is now southern Iraq, took up arms over boundary canals. Sandra Postel and Aaron Wolf?found?that between the years of 805 and 1984, countries signed more than 3,600 water-related treaties. Their analysis of 1,831 international water-related treaties over the second half of the 20th century found that two-thirds of the encounters were of a cooperative nature. India and Pakistan have abided by the World Bank-arbitrated Indus Waters Treaty since 1960, and none of the three wars the bitter rivals have fought were caused by water disputes. Even as Palestinians and Israelis kill each other, water professionals on both sides interact through the Joint Water Committee, established by the Oslo-II Accords in 1995.Gleick is wrong about the empirical record. Water doesn’t lead to armed conflict between states and war in declining overallBryan Walsh, Senior Editor, December 10, 2013, “New Mideast Pipeline Deal Shows Why Water Doesn’t Start Wars,” Time, , Accessed 12/17/2013More virtual water flows into the Middle East each year in the form of imported grain that flows down the Nile to farmers in Egypt.?Nations cooperate on water, through trade and treaties, because they have no other choice. And that’s a good thing, because it means that water is one area where even fractious countries are forced by their own needs to negotiate with each other. They may threaten war over water, but they almost never resort to it. None of this is to say that water scarcity isn’t a major global problem now and won’t be a bigger one in the future, as global population increases—especially in already arid countries in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa—and climate change alters hydrological patterns. Peter Gleick at the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security?complied?a list of scores of conflict that occurred over water, going all the way back to ancient Sumerian legend. But the violence in the vast majority of these cases is relatively contained, and usually civil—within a country, rather than between nation-states. Which does point to a problem. The severity of armed conflict between nation-states?has declined sharply?in recent decades, even with the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. But civil conflict is?still a major problem, as the ongoing civil war in Syria demonstrates, and it’s one that will likely be worsened thanks to?climate change and dwindling resources—including water.Desalination Is Too ExpensiveDesalination is too expensive. Israel will attack Egypt in water warsAbid Khazandar, Staff Writer, December 7, 2013, “The war for water,” Saudi Gazette, Accessed 12/17/2013, wars will be fought over water. There are already indications that water wars may soon erupt among the Nile Basin countries. Former Israeli prime minister, who is now foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman threatened several times that Israel would not hesitate to destroy the High Dam in Egypt, if it had to as part of the water wars. His threats must be taken seriously because they are not empty and he is not bluffing. Many of the world’s rivers have begun to shrink and lakes have begun to dry out. The substitute is the desalination of sea water which is extremely expensive. Rich countries, including ours, are complaining about the high cost of water desalination. We use large amounts of fuel to operate the desalination plants. We could, instead, export this fuel to earn extra income. Therefore, it is imperative to lower this cost if we are to continue using desalinated water.? ................
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