4/29/2015 - Illinois workNet

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April 29, 2015

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Facilitators Melissa Mack

WDQI Project Manager

Social Policy Research Associates

Vinz Koller

WDQI Director

Social Policy Research Associates

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It's getting HOT in here...

Avoiding the fire drill: ? Just use your phone ? Deactivate microphones on all devices ? Don't place the line on hold ? Phones will be muted (To unmute, press *6)

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Illinois Presenters

Patti Schnoor

WDQI Project Director

IL Dept of Commerce & Economic Opportunity Patricia.Schnoor@

Dr. George Putnam

Chief Economic Analyst

Illinois Department of Employment Security george.putnam@

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Illinois Data Quality

April 2015

ULINE:

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Illinois Data Quality

April 2015

ULINE:

Integration: Continuous Process

Clean + Change

Universal Portal

Explore

Share

Shape

Customer Vault

MIS Data

Enrich

Combine

Longitudinal Data System

Merging and sharing data between agencies is an ongoing process.

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WDQI & LDS Data Sources

Agencies

Programs

Services

Workforce

Illinois Department of

? WIOA Title I

Commerce and Economic ? Trade

Opportunity (DCEO)

? Career Services ? Employment Services ? Training

Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES)

Human Services Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS)

Education Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE)

Illinois Community College Board (ICCB)

Illinois Student Assistance Commission (ISAC) Illinois Board of Higher Education (IBHE)

? Trade ? Unemployment Insurance ? Labor Market Information (LMI)

? TANF ? Rehabilitation Services

? Pre-Kindergarten ? Grade 12

? Adult Education ? Community Colleges

? Financial Assistance

? Private Postsecondary and Public Universities

? Unemployment benefits ? LMI

? Public assistance benefits ? Disability services ? Education program/course approvals ? Education program/course approvals ? Financial assistance ? Education program/course approvals

MIS Data 9

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Overview of Workforce Narratives

Conventional Narrative

Enhanced Narrative

Quantitative Workforce Measures

DCEO

IDES

Qualitative Workforce Measures

Career Placement Job Attachment

Long-term Gains Sustainable Results

Return on Investment

Clean + Change

Gap Analysis Competitive

Advantages

Explore

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Shape

Enrich

Combine 10

Workforce Outcomes: Policy Implications Reference Group and Trend Comparisons

Employment and Training Program Exit Reasons Counts for Program Year 2012 Quarter 2 "Q2"

Education/Credential/Military Entered Employment Client Terminate Other

469 3,073 1,069 1,759

7.4% 48.2% 16.8% 27.6%

Total

6,369 100.0%

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Workforce Narratives

Conventional Narrative

Enhanced Narrative

?Individual-based measures ?Unit of analysis- SSN

?Job-based measures ?Unit of analysis- pairing SSN and Employer UI Account

?Workforce outcomes ?Outcome comparisons divorced from labor market status ?Cross-sectional perspective on employment and earnings can be misleading

?Workforce outcomes ?Outcome comparisons consistent with labor market status ?Time-series and cross- sectional perspectives on employment and earnings by job attachment and hiring behavior

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Earnings of Participants

Count of Participants with Employment

Workforce Narratives

Conventional Narrative

Enhanced Narrative

?Analytical Themes ?Employment counts ?Monthly earnings

?Analytical Themes ?Job Hiring ?Job attachment ?Monthly earnings ?Near-term measure development- multiple jobs vs dual job holding, primary job, turnover rate ...

?Policy Implications of Workforce Outcomes

?Constrained reference group comparisons

?Policy Implications of Workforce Outcomes

?Detailed reference group comparison:

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Conventional Narrative: Employment Counts

Employment count of participants that Exited Employment and Training Program Program Year 2012, Quarter 2

Exiters that Entered Employment

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Conventional Narrative: Monthly Earnings

Earnings of participants that Exited Employment and Training Program Program Year 2012, Quarter 2

Earnings estimates are confounded by partial employment and multiple jobs in a single quarter

Exiters that Entered Employment ? Earnings from each of Exiters that Entered Employment ? Earnings from all of

exiter's employment records distinct.

exiter's employment records combined.

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Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Percentage of Employment

Percentage of Jobs

Pre-exit and Post-exit Employment/Job

Enhanced Narrative: Employment vs. Job

Combining data allows Decision Makers and Stakeholders the ability to see the big picture and trends in outcomes. Approximately 15% - 20% of jobs are held by individuals with more than one job.

Combine

Exiter's Employment

Exiter's Jobs

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Enhanced Narrative: Hiring Activity

Prior to exiting, trainees tend to hold multiple jobs and did not maintain stable employment. After exiting, trainee hiring activity decreases as they find stable jobs. Post-exit trainees are more likely than other IL workers to be hired by an employer for whom they did not work for previously.

Illinois Hires

Illinois Hires ? New Employer Exiter Hires

Exiter Hires ?.New Employer

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Enhanced Narrative: Job Attachment for 2 Consecutive Quarters

Exiters exhibit 2Q job attachment similar to IL workers within 2 quarters of exit

Illinois Jobs

Exiter Jobs

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Participant Earnings

Participant Earnings

Percentage of Employment

Enhanced Narrative: Job Attachment for 3 Consecutive Quarters

Exiters exhibit 3Q job attachment similar to IL workers within 4 quarters of exit

Illinois Jobs

Exiter Jobs

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Enhanced Narrative: Average Monthly Earnings by Job Attachment

Stable earnings measure (3Q) reduces the impact of estimation problems due to partial employment and multiple jobs in a single quarter

Enrich

Exiters that Entered Employment ? Earnings from each of Exiters that Entered Employment ? Earnings from all of

exiter's employment records distinct.

exiter's employment records combined.

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

Exiters - Earnings from jobs held

for 3 Quarters

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Enhanced Narrative: Average Monthly Earnings (3Q Job Attachment)

Earnings reflect a distinct seasonal pattern for IL workers that confounds point-in-time comparisons; over-the-year earnings gains are higher for Exiters (12%) than IL Workers (2%)

Explore

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Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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Percentage of Employment

Percentage of Employment

Participant Earnings

Enhanced Narrative: Average Monthly Earnings by Industry

Earnings reflect industry-specific seasonal pattern; earnings disadvantage of health jobs is more severe among Exiters (-20%) than IL Workers (-14%)

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Quarterly Incremental Reporting

Enhanced Narrative: Average Monthly Earnings by Age within Industry

Older Exiters earn less (-8%) than other Exiters in Health jobs; earnings disadvantage may be growing

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Quarterly Incremental Reporting

Enhanced Narrative: Average Monthly Earnings by Age within Industry

Older Exiters earn less (-8%) than other Exiters in Health jobs; Older IL Workers earn more (16%) than other workers in Health jobs

Quarterly Incremental Reporting

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