Trading Football Strategies - August 2012
Trading Football Strategies - 2012
Contents
1. Draw No Bet (DNB)
2. Covers and Cunders
3. Correct Score
4. Multiples
5. The Full Monty
6. Scatter Gun
7. SHS
8. Alternative SHS
9. The Clint
10. Nugget Nibble
11. MetalTone
12. Gundulfs Gateux
13. Nearly All Covered (NAC)
14. The Lazy Lamb/The Lazy Lion
15. Bingo Special
16. Adster Aperitif
17. Scalping
18. Homer Suite
DRAW NO BET(DNB)
Description: Eliminate the draw
Like the Asian Handicap this market removes the draw from the three possible outcomes -
home win/away win/draw
Consequently the odds on both teams are less than the odds in the MO market.
If you BACK Team A and they win....you win the bet
if match is a draw then your stake is refunded. You don`t win and you don`t lose
If Team B win you lose your stake.
Note: DNB can be traded in-play. But beware of often poor liquidity so chose high profile games where there is at least £20K in the market
Selection criteria: Teams to be evenly priced in MO market
Staking: You can take insurance on CS pre match
Example: BACK Team A DRAW NO BET @ 2.0 £100
BACK Team B Correct Score.... e.g 0-2 £25 AND 1-2 for £25
Tip: The odds on Draw No Bet should be identical to 0 on the Asian Handicap market. Sometimes you will notice a difference in these 2 markets and this presents an opportunity to execute an arbitrage trade
CoverS and CunderS
Description: The classic 2 market strategy. CoverS : BACK OVER 2.5 goals +
BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following: 0-0/0-1/1-0/0-2/2-0/1-1
CunderS: BACK UNDER 2.5 goals + BACK 3 or perhaps 4 of the following 1-2/2-1/2-2/3-1/3-0/AUQ
Selection criteria: Odds on either Over on Under should not be less than 1.90
Staking: Decide what your prematch preference is regarding the result.
Weight your stakes accordingly
Example: BACK Unders @2.0 £100;
BACK CS high scores for a combined (dutched) total of £70 In this case you are favouring Under 2.5 as the most likely result
Correct Score
Description:The King of football trading strategies.
All other football markets are linked to the Correct Score market.
Some prefer to select just one scoreline and hope for the best and build their trade around that.
Others use 5 or more scorelines with a bias towards higher or lower scores
The important point to bear in mind is that you may often have to back other scores or
top up existing scores as the match progresses
Selection criteria:Take the middle ground and always include 1-1 as one of your selections particularly if you have chosen a match with evenly priced teams.
Staking: If you select multiple scorelines then leave more green on the middle scores,
e.g 2-0/1-2/1-1. This will help when you begin to lay inplay
Multiples
Description: Placing 2 draw doubles & 1 draw treble on Betfair Multiple coupon.
Very complicated, frankly, as variables are enormous given we are trading 3 matches.
Best explained on a video which you can view by clicking on the icon above
Selection criteria: Look for matches where Draw odds are about 3.4ish
Games selected MUST start at different KO times
Staking:
New Traders start with 3 x £3 doubles and 1 x £2 treble
The Full Monty
Description: Similar to the SHS, the Full Monty can be jumped on at HT. Looking for 4 shots on target or more based on Bet365 stats inplay we are looking for games that are 0-0 at HT which promise goals second half based on stats, head to heads, recent matches
Use: 2nd half
Selection criteria: 4 or more shots on target and as above criteria
Staking and markets: 0-0 at HT we Lay under 2.5 at anything up to 1.28 for £30/£60
IF game is still 0-0 when draw hits 2s we LTD to cover the red on 2.5 market. This way a late goal will give us as good as scratch
Soon as a goal is scored green the match odds and hope for another so you can green the 2.5 market too. Two goals from 46th to 80th minute is what you're looking for and many games will fall into this category
Scatter Gun
Description: Backing 1-1/2-1/1-2
Selection criteria: When assessing matches for this strategy check two markets first before looking at CS.
Firstly, look for match odds of no lower than 1.8 for the favourite, and also look at U2.5 being around 1.9 - 2.1. If these criteria are met you will find more times than not that 1-1 is trading at between 7 and 8.5 and the other two at about 11-13. You would then usually back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount you're backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.
What can go wrong?
When assessing any Correct Score trades it's sensible to look at what might go wrong and by so doing assess your 'danger scores'. We can then work out how to deal with them. The first, and most distressing, danger is the dreaded 0-0! The easiest way to alleviate this score is by backing and laying the same amount pre-match trying to make 1 or 2 ticks. By trading pre-match your stake itself is safe - the only danger is that the price moves against you rather than for you. Experience shows that if you back 0-0 with about 30 to 45 minutes to go you will usually get at least one tick movement. There are no guarantees - but often you can get between £35 and £50 'free' sitting on 0-0.
In-play you can either just leave your money sitting on 0-0 or lay some of it off as the price of 0-0 drops.
There are only really two other main dangers; first that no goal is scored until very late in the game and the 1-1 price doesn't come in enough to lay it off profitably, the second that two goals come very early in the game resulting, again, in insufficient price movements. An absolute goalfest is always a possiblity, if you are nervous about that why not look at taking some cover in the U/O goal markets?
In-play trading
There are a number of ways this strategy can be traded in-play. In an ideal world the game would play out thus: dogs score first, bringing the 1-1 in. Favourites equalise at about 60 minutes - enabling a green of 1-1 to cover all stakes and give a profit on all scores. Then you can either green up across the board, or wait for a 1-2 or 2-1. At this stage you are effectively laying the draw with absolutely no downside! If you'd had the foresight to back 2-2 as well as the other scores you'd be laughing all the way to the bank if 2-1 or 1-2 comes before the 80th minute! That's the ideal - and they happen surprisingly often. There are danger points to consider and you need to have a plan...
Two quick goals bringing the score to 0-2 or 2-0 can be tricky as two thirds of your trade is gone in a flash. There's little you can do here - except to hedge your remaining bet and walk away - or you could stand firm if you're prepared for the fact that 3-0 or 0-3 (or staying the same until the end) will lose your entire stake. Another precaution might be to take a small bet on the Next Goal market - or if those goals are early in the game you could lay O2.5 goals at a very low price to guard against the game staying the same.
The game is 0-0 at half time...and you have no 0-0 cover as discussed above.
Two choices really - hedge for a small loss or stand firm and hope for goals second half. You could consider backing 0-0 1-0 0-1 maybe to cover your stakes... use the 'what-if' on BF to see how to stake - but it will eat a lot of your potential profit!
The game is 0-0 at 80 mins and you have no 0-0 cover - consider hedging for a larger loss, and maybe lay 0-0 for the red amount - it obviously increases your exposure but if the game is won 1-0 or 0-1 puts you in a scratch position. There are other banana skins - but the beauty of this trade, when it works, is that the return is generally pretty good.
SUMMARY
·Evenly matched games - home side no lower than 1.8 U2.5 around evens
·Set an amount of money / % of bank you are prepared to LOSE - work the rest of your plan out with that figure in mind.
·Try to get some free money on 0-0 pre-match
·Stakes should be around a straight dutch on 1-1 1-2 2-1
·0-0 25 - 30 mins put a small amount on 2-2
·If a goal is scored I would usually try to lay half my total stakes on the 1-1 scoreline
UNLESS the dog scores against the run of play
·1-1 is where the paydirt starts. Green completely on 1-1 - will probably give an overall green on all scores. Then you can either let the other 2/3 ride for a while, or hedge all bets and go down the pub / move on to the next game!
·0-0 HT - a) hedge for small loss or b) stand firm or c) cover 0-0 1-0 0-1
·0-0 80 mins hedge for larger loss (unless 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 covered) and maybe lay 0-0 to cover that loss..
The most important thing to remember is this:
If a trade goes against you - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE to reduce / minimise your liabilities and losses.
Don't sit there like a rabbit in the headlights - think outside the box - are there any other markets that might come to your rescue?
Staking: Back 1-1 for about 1.5 the amount I'm backing the other two for - so £3 1-1 £2 the others, £5 1-1, £3 the others or thereabouts. If the game is still 0-0 after half an hour I normally look to put a small amount on 2-2 at 25-30.
SHS
Description: This strategy involves laying the draw at odds no greater than 2s.
When the goal comes trade out for an even green all round.
If a goal does not come accept the loss as 0-0 results will happen! By following the below criteria you will have far more green screens than red screens.
Bet365 covers most games and shows inplay stats like Shots on Target etc.
Use: 2nd half
Description 2
If score is 0-0 LTD at odds of 2.40, 2s and 1.60.
Lay £15 at 2.40, £15 at 2s and £15 at 1.60. 0-0 hits 2.40 usually around 55 mins.
Some prefer to drip lay the £££ in at odds of 2s, 1.50, 1.25 for even stakes, (£25 each etc). By doing it this way and with so many late goals you can hit the JACKPOT with a goal last kick of the match which will yield £75 return using the above stakes or £45. Personal choice which one to use.
Selection criteria: Check stats/H2H/recent results...and if watching the game make a judgment as to whether you think there will be a goal or not if current score is 0-0. 5 or more Shots on Target around 60 minutes. is a reasonable indicator to think a goal or two will be scored. OR at least 4 SOT at HT.
Best to avoid games where a red card has been shown.
Staking: Personal choice e.g £ LTD £20. If goal then back draw to hedge for a profit.Or use other stake % as per above examples. This strategy had a strike rate of 63% last season.
I like the SHS strategy - but you can play it slightly differently.
Same selection criteria, but lay the CS rather than LTD. Use the same risk as LTD - so if odds 2.0 laying £10 to a £10 risk, lay lower stake because clearly the CS odds will be higher.
If favourite scores first - immediate 100% profit, which will be around the same £s as the green on the LTD - depending on the goal time profit could be more than the LTD
If no goals - loss same as LTD
Real benefit - if dog scores first, still 100% profit on CS - but the LTD becomes sticky
- again depending on goal time.
Final benefit - it's a straight punt - Bet & Go - no trading - so no match watching.
Alternative SHS
An alternative to the regular SHS (Suggsy Halftime Strategy) is to lay at three different prices, 2, 1.5 and 1.25 for the same stakes i.e. £10, £10, £10.
Looking at the top leagues in England, Spain and Germany and for each of the last 3 seasons MORE goals are scored from 76 to 90 mins, (plus you have benefit of injury time). So this makes perfect sense to have lays in for the whole game and NOT coming out at 1.5 as with the SHS and missing out on a late goal. A late goal will see the draw shoot out massively allowing us almost 100% ROI.
The price of 2s is hit around 60-65 minutes into a game if the score is 0-0. By submitting a first lay at this price you're in the game for best part of 30 minutes.
1.5 is reached around 75 to 80 mins, so you can potentially be putting your second lay in and have around 15 mins for a goal.
1.25 is reached around 88 mins and into injury time giving around 5 to 7 minutes of a chance of a goal.
A late goal with all 3 lays in is happy days! Currently the average strike rate is 64%
Here are stats from the 2009/10 season showing the same outcome at HT and FT
Pr League
0-0 32 %
1-1 17.5 % (!)
1-0 17 %
0-1 21 %
2-0 24 %
Bundesliga
0-0 30 %
1-1 22 %
Serie A
0-0 27 %
1-1 29 %
So food for thought for the 1-1 as well as the 0-0s.
Stats taken from
Games to avoid
French leagues and games with a red card in them.
Good luck, we've already made money via this strat, so let's continue!
The Clint
Description: A variation on CoverS. Back Over 2.5 + back 1-1, (sometimes split 1-1 and 2-0 to fave 50-50 staking) + Scalp Under 1.5 (or back it for newcomers)
We now back 2-1 and 2-2 OR just 2-2, (with evenly matched sides)
Use: 1st half
Selection criteria: Choose games where you think will be goals with 1-1 as cover. Over 2.5 should be 1.90 min to back. With certain games if you feel 2-0 is a strong possibility split the 1-1 and 2-0 cover., ie £5 and £5 or £10 and £10.
Staking: Back Over 2.5 £35/£70;1-1 £5/£10 (2-0 optional if strong fave involved then split with 1-1, ie £3 on each), 2-1 £5 OR 2-1 £3 and £ on 2-2
Back Under 1.5 for £12/£24
If you can Scalp Under 1.5 and have that covered it leaves you in a very strong position.
Nugget Nibble
Use: 1st half
Description: BACK 2-2 with 0-0 as insurance.
Works best with evenly matched teams in MO market.
2-2 price should be no less than 16.0
· If score is 0-0 at 30 mins - odds will be around 6.0 if pre-match odds were 11.0 -
LAY enough to leave small red on CS except large green on 2-2.
· If goal is scored before 30mins then LAY 2-2 to green up or at least leave 0 on all scores except large green on 2-2
Selection criteria:
Staking: 0-0 50% of 2-2 stakes; BACK 0-0 £20 BACK 2-2 £40
Metaltone
Use: 1st half
Description: You LTD but the underdog scores first. What can you do ?
1.) Back the current draw odds for 50% of your initial lay bet
2.) Lay the team that scored for 75% of your initial lay bet
This will greatly reduce your liabilities and give you a big green on the team that is behind. Should the team that is behind score an equaliser, lay them off so you profit a bit on each result (NOTE: you won't be able to equalise the profit, so you'll have to play around with a number that works. Usually, I lay for the liability I have on the Draw which means I break even if there is a draw and make a profit if one of the teams goes on to win)
By way of example, let's say the odds to lay the draw are 3.75 and I put £20 on it, giving me a liability of £55 on the draw and green of £20 on either team winning.
The underdog scores and their lay odds go down to 1.9 but the draw odds (to back) only go up to 3.65. Back the draw @ 3.65 for £10 (50% of £20) and lay the leading team @ 1.90 for £15 (75% of £20).
You now have a £13.65 liability on the draw, a £3.50 liability on the team that scored and a green of £25 on the team that is behind (which is hopefully the favourite). Worst-case scenario is that you will lose £3.50, because if there is an equaliser you will be able to lay off the £25 green to make a guaranteed profit/break-even on any result.
It has been suggested the trick is to pick the right games. Look at teams statistics on , particularly their head-to-head, but also their recent form as indicated by their last 8 games. Also look for few draws in their H2H and in their recent form and teams who tend to score in the first half which you can see from these stats too.
Selection criteria: Look for games where one of the teams is below 2.00, the other teams is 4.00 or above and the draw is no higher than 3.75
Staking: Personal choice but adhere to the % advised.
Gundulfs Gateux
Description: LAY heavy favourite in the HALF TIME MATCH ODDS market pre- match and exit the trade when the BACK odds are higher, enabling you to green up.
The rate at which the odds move in this market is greater than seen in the regular MO market. Bigger profits - especially if the dog scores first - but less time to recover should the trade go against you. Look to exit trade after 15/20 minutes.
Selection criteria: Favourites should be less than 2.0 in the HALF TIME market. More than this then your liabilities could be quite severe
Staking: Personal choice
Example: when still 0-0 after 15/20 minutes.
LAY FAV @ 1.75 £100
BACK @ 2.0 £87.50
25 tick profit = £12.50
Example: 0-1 to the dog
a) Let the trade run and hope the favourite does not equalise or even score 2 or more in the time left remaining. Very risky...and greedy!
b) BACK the favourite to leave equal green on all 3 outcomes - Home/Away/Draw. The easiest of the 3 options
c) BACK 1-1 & 2-1. A little more complicated as it depends on the prices currently available.
Nearly All Covered (NAC)
Description: Nearly All Covered describes this strategy perfectly
We lay Over 2.5 and back Over 3.5 with some CS cover....generally (small on 2-1) 3-1, 2-2 and AUQ
Use: 1st half
Criteria: Strong home side trading up to 1.50 who score but also concede. We want goals! Arbing one market off against the other. Backing at bigger price and laying off at lower price on other market. Ideally we want 4 goals in the game so we hit the jackpot from Over 3.5 as well profit from 3-1, 2-2 or AUQ. Away dog scores first we have 2-2 as cover. Other scores can be backed in conjunction with back over 3.5 as goals go in. 0-3, 1-3, 2-3 are very unusual with such a strong home favourite.
Look for the top solid sides who score and concede. You're looking for 3-1, 2-2, AUQ as potential results.
Staking: BACK Under 2.5 at 2.2 plus for £10. BACK Over 3.5 at 2.4 plus for £15. Back 3-1, 2-2, 2-1, AUQ for a total of £20. (Spread the green.) 2-1 should be left as scratch as you're expecting 4 or more goals. FT scores of AUQ, 3-1, 2-2 you win on 2 of the 3 markets.
The Lazy Lamb / The Lazy Lion
Description: The ‘Lazy’ is probably the closest thing to a ‘set and go’ strategy for trading strong favourites. It involves backing certain scores in the Correct Score market and then laying an odds on favourite in the Match Odds market.
Returns are relatively low, but in return, it is usually a trade requiring very little tweaking in play.
Use: In-play
Selection criteria: The only selection criterion is an odds on favourite, so much the better if that is also the home side. The more heavily odds on they are the better as well! This strategy can also be employed in-play when the favourite has taken the lead by 1 goal or more. It is safer to to use in the 2nd half as you will need less scorelines to cover in the CS market
Method: Assuming favourites are the home team, dutch back 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. Then lay the favourites in Match Odds for your total stake. Easy! If the match finishes with one of those scorelines you make a small green, if the underdog wins or the game is drawn it is a scratch trade.
DANGERS:The only dangers to this trade are the 3-2 and Any Unquoted scorelines – so you might need to cover these in play by either backing them or by laying u3.5 or u4.5 goals.
The Lion Lazy: A variation of the Lazy Lamb for those whose risk / reward threshold allows a slightly riskier trade. A favourite trading at 1.6 or less should really be expected to a) win the game and b) score at least two goals. That is a bold statement, but is the premise for this variation.
Selection criteria: As above, but ideally favourite 1.6 or lower.
METHOD: Again assuming home team are favourites back 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in Correct Score. This can either be dutched, or you might decide to weight it n favour of 3-0 or 3-1 if you are confident about goals coming. Lay favourites in Match Odds for half the Correct Score stake (optional – alternative for an even riskier trade is to lay favourites at 1-0!)
DANGERS: 1-0 is now added to the problem scores list, but you are also still exposed to 3-2 and AU, and to the dog scoring first. The latter is a bigger problem, of course, if you have elected not to lay the favourite for 50% of CS stakes.
Last modified on Friday, 03 August 2012 13:59
Bingo Special
Description: Laying current score or occasionally Match Odds
This tactic is played when the game is in injury time and we look to lay at a price of 1.20 or less. The percentage of goals scored in injury time seems to be increasing (particularly at Old Trafford some would cynically point out!)
It is to be fair more of a punt than a ingenious strategy yet your reading of a game in those last often frantic minutes can persuade you to take a chance that there will another goal.
What is the upside? Laying @ 1.20 equates to you needing to be right only once every five times you try it.
The downside is, well, not too severe frankly as you are buying a bet very cheaply. Wager £2 to win £10. Sounds reasonable
Use: Late 2nd half
Criteria: Only lay the current score if there is just one goal difference between the sides. 2-0 with 3 mins to go often means the dog have given up and the home side will not be overly pressing. Exceptions can be found in 2 leg matches in certain UEFA league competitions
Staking: Two approaches can be taken here:
1. Lay @ 1.20 for whatever sum you are comfortable with potentially losing
2. Drip lay: Begin your lays @ 1.50 for £10....then lay again @ 1.25 for £20....then a final lay @ 1.15 for £40. Your maximum loss can be £16 if the score remains the same. The profit however if all 3 lays are matched and a goal is scored would be £70
Last modified on Friday, 03 August 2012 13:58
Adster Aperitif
Description: BACK 2-1 scoreline, preferably to home side.
Insurance optional. (don't bother unless sticking £50 on 2-1 then put £10 on 0-0)
Options based on game situation, (Bet365 allows in-play stats like shots on target, corners), either hedge at HT if 0-0 for loss of half initial stake
IF game is 0-0 at 60-65 minutes apply the SHS and only the game ending 0-0 will damage you
If goals go in either lay favourite in NG market, BACK under 1.5 or just LAY 2-1 for green
Alternative if price not available before KO. Back in play at 10s or more to home favourite for personal stakes like £25, £5 on 2-2
optional £5 on 0-0
Use: 1st half
Selection Criteria: Match Odds between 1.60 to 2.10; 2-1 minimum odds of 10s
Staking: £50 and above take insurance of £10 on 0-0; Staking less than above exit trade for a loss at HT if 0-0, OR apply SHS as above
Scalping
Description: If the Scatter Gun is a handy way to rob a dime store, Scalping is the Magnum 44 that will help you rob the bank. An essential weapon in the trader`s armoury it is advised to learn this technique thoroughly. It offers instant cover against any liabilities you have on any trade.
Selection criteria:
The following markets are the best in our opinion:
Under 1.5/2.5
Current correct score
Current next score
Draw in match odds
The under 1.5 is a personal favourite for scalping. On an average game the under 1.5 price will be around 3.6 to back. By half time this price will halve if the score is 0-0, in fact the under 1.5 will be the same, (or near as) at half time as the starting price of the under 2.5. So let's consider this...........if it starts at 3.6 then it will drop around 40 ticks per 10 mins on average to reach it's 1.8 at half time.
So how is the best way to use this information?
The following are % of goals scored in the first 15 minutes this season.
Premier 11%
C/ship 13.6%
Spain 10.6%
France 11.4%
Italy 14%
Germany 14.8%
(Above foreign figures for their top leagues only)
So we’re looking on average around 12.5% there will be a goal in the first 15 minutes which equates to 1 game in 8.…………Which is pretty good in our favour!
What else helps with scalping?
Live games that you are watching are a must! Trading blind is far too dangerous. How do you know where the ball is? How do you know what is happening in the game? Have there been many chances? To trade blindly really should be avoided. Even streamed matches have various delays of 10 seconds to 3 minutes………….
Look for the gaps. As we can see here with a little under 2 hours to the match there are gaps already. This will be similar once the game goes in play…………
Example; Whilst trading a live game with regards to the under 1.5 various tips were given out to members. The game was an African Nations game it was about 5 minutes old the score was still 0-0. The price on the under 1.5 was 3.20. A back was submitted at 3.20 which was quickly matched and the lay was instantly put on at 3.10, 2 ticks lower. This was taken within 30 seconds at a point of the game where the ball was in the goalkeepers hands and was safe. There was very little money in the queue so the lay bet was going to be taken quickly as it was at the front of the queue.
Then resubmitted at 3.05 to back after spotting very little money below this and big gaps in the market. Once taken the lay side again was submitted at 2.94 and taken within a minute.
Lastly the price from 2.90 to 2.54 took about 45 seconds and I was in there for that as well
So in summary:
First 15 minutes are safest.
Look for the gaps, try for better prices and once bet taken instantly resubmit on lay side 2 or 3 ticks lower.
When the price is over 3 the drops are in .5s so using £50 stakes you will make £2.50 per tick made or £1 for £20 stakes which is 2.5 times better than when the price drops below 3s.
If you do get caught you’re not totally out of it as 2 goals are needed for you to lose your stake unlike scalping the current correct score where a goal will lose your entire stake. IF this happens choices are to trade out for a loss when market settles or back bigger scores leaving it open or lastly waiting for it to drop before laying off for a smaller loss………..
By being at the front of the queue you will be matched quicker.
Whilst liquidity is important in any market, gaps and bets matched quickly happens a lot more regularly for the under 1.5.
Scalping under 2.5
A safer method where a goal won’t be as costly but the drops of course will not be as quick. In the first 10 minutes of a game drops can be anything up to 25 ticks……….
Gaps are not as apparent due to more liquidity and the unders scalping is a favourite for many traders.
Scalping the current draw price in match odds
There used to be a premise where in a game where the score was 0-0 those that used a well known lay the draw trading method would be offloading around 60 to 65 minutes and the 0-0 price would drop sharply……….Whether this still holds weight is anyone’s guess although it is true that a lot of ‘draw layers’ will trade out around this period and the price will come crashing in. Something to look out for, but again live pictures with a feel for the game is recommended.
Scalping the 0-0
This can pay handsome dividends, more so when the price is over 10s and a £20 back and lay 1 tick profit will give you £10 green on the 0-0 scoreline. Scalping early on into a game is recommended for this reason as well as mentioned above, ie the lack of goals being scored in this timeframe………..But of course getting caught on 0-0 will lose your stakes. Perhaps consider using it with a back on the 2-0 and 0-2 scorelines to give you some insurance in case of a goal.
Scalping the 1-0 and 0-1
Beauty of this is both prices will come in for majority of first half/a goal is scored. And if done simultaneously if you are caught you will lose on one but there’s a good chance the price on the other will come in to allow a hedging off………
Conclusion
Scalping is a great way of giving profits or using it as insurance on another trade within that game.
If you’re new to scalping try smaller stakes and learn to nip in and out, try and get in and out asap. Less time you’re in less risk of being caught.
Make sure you have one eye on the tv so you know where the ball is in play.
Look for the gaps and where the amounts are small.
Soon as your back bet is taken submit on lay side straight away.
Being at the front of the queue means less time and less risk with an open trade.
Homer Suite
Homer
An Introduction
I have been sports trading on and off for more than four years. Originally my main trading was pre-race horse racing but I also dabbled lightly in a few other sports including football where I was just going round in circles.
Today, when I ask people what they used to do when they first started football trading most would say lay the draw and I was no different. It seems to be a bog standard way of starting out. Like most, I would blindly forge ahead with no pre-defined structure as to the match selection, staking or exit strategy. If you can imagine standing on a slow conveyor belt travelling around a huge mug which you had to throw money into after each complete revolution then that was me.
Football is my passion and I needed serious help to step off that conveyor belt but that is easier said than done. To this day my inbox is full of emails offering ‘get rich’ sports trading systems and services, mostly advertised in the same style and almost all just existing to take your money with no real interest in helping the customer. In amongst this deluge are just a handful of services that really do care about their customers and offer value for money for the service they provide.
I joined one service, Tradingfootball.eu (which I hasten to add is not the only excellent, caring football service currently available but the one I have vast experience using), eighteen months ago and they helped to completely transform my football trading. Within a few months I was disciplined with firm objectives for each match I traded. I analysed the match statistics, staked correctly, knew exactly where my exit points were, thinking for myself and enjoying the challenge. However there was one factor which shadowed everything that I had learnt and that was plain old hard work and dedication!
I was making a small and steady profit on football for the first time. I had stepped off the conveyor belt and was now climbing the stairs at a slow pace. I was finally thinking for myself. I wanted to see if it was possible to find a simple to use strategy that had a quick defining moment which would secure an immediate profit but at the same time provide for a safe reasonable exit that would ensure the long term success. Something that I could call my own!
I tried many ideas for months but was soon hooked on the concept of the home goal, after all even the worst teams seem to score regularly at home. What if I could make the home goal that one defining moment where no matter what else happens a profit was secured. What if I could add other factors that would increase the chances of a winning trade. Could I find a way to win and lose as close to the same amounts as possible thus making the no win strike rate profitable at 51%? The simple answer is yes but the match selection is key. If a game can be found where the prices qualify but at the same time giving the home team the realistic chance of providing that winning profit then we are half way there. What we have to come to terms with is that no matter how good we think our match selections are, we are at the mercy of those highly paid players. No matter how much the home team may dominate in that first half, if they don’t do their job and stick the ball in the net then we may lose money. Plain and simple.
The Homer and the HomerLow variation has been regularly and successfully traded by myself and others in the chat room of Tradingfootball.eu for many months.
It is the prices that give this strategy its long term profitability. We can all lump on Chelsea when they are at home to Barnet but it won’t make any of us money over the longer term. I use strict match selection criteria which rule out a few competitions such as most Champions League and Europa group games or all first leg cup matches. Unfortunately this means that the qualifying Homer matches are limited to around one every other week day and perhaps two each on Saturday and Sunday. So I wanted to expand the Homer portfolio so that I could trade these games regularly.
Therefore I developed the HomerDog and the frantic but successful HomerActive. Naturally they are both based on the home goal concept but the price criteria and staking is slightly different. HomerDog in particular is very simple to execute, in fact that strategy needs no intervention after the initial trades unless the max loss exit (MLE) needs to be executed. These two strategies are not traded on any other service and the criteria has never been published. Literally only a handful of people have been using and testing them.
I am testing two other similar siblings. HomerActiveDog and HomerExtremeDog. No guesses the basis of these variations! I will be reporting the progress of these two through the daily service and may from time to time make picks available for those members to trade on the basis that it is still work in progress. When they are officially released they will be available for free to both buyers of the strategy with or without the daily service.
So why don’t I just trade the games on my own and make money quietly. Won’t I lose my edge?
These are questions that we have all seen time and time again in our spam mail. “I have made my millions and now want to give everyone an opportunity to share my wealth” is one of those statements that I see often and now bore me! The simple and totally honest answer is that I am the sort of person that repays the help and generosity that is shown to me. My football trading wouldn’t be where it is today without joining the football service and it was natural for me to give something back to their community by helping and sharing with others. I have lead countless Homers and played a very small part in helping develop the inexperienced and naive members into confident and robust traders.
However, the success and popularity of the Homer coupled with the development of the siblings, maintaining the blog and Facebook has taken its toll on my spare time. I have arrived at the crossroads of either taking a back seat and trading quietly or continuing to use my time to help others in a more structured and professional manner.
As far as an edge is concerned. If the big leagues are traded with mid to large liquidity then there is enough cash in the market for all three strategies. Secondary leagues with medium liquidity are fine for the Homer and Homerdog. The HomerActive is an in play strategy so you will be able to deduce whether a secondary market has enough liquidity to jump on as the game progresses. My daily service will advise you of the potential of a HomeActive up to three days in advance. I don’t recommend any type of strategies at low liquidity unless stakes are particularly low. For Homers that means half stakes at best.
For purposes of this document the strategies are explained without any pre-match scalping. I will explain the scalping options and how this will massively increase the chances of a profitable trade after each section.
MLE
I refer to this term often in this document. It stands for Maximum Loss Exit and is the point where no matter what your opinion is of the fixture you are trading, discipline takes over and you exit. The decision to exit is when the First Goal, Under 2.5 and Correct Score markets reach a total a loss of £20. An approximate additional £3 is used to hedge the U.2.5 market to leave 0 on over 2.5 and a chance to scratch the entire trade. This is the same rule across the whole family.
As an average across all the family, the win and the MLE are not far off the same amount but as soon as the line is crossed and the MLE has been ignored the value of continuing diminishes fast. You are heading for the scenario of risking your full liability which at single stakes could be £65 to win just £20. It doesn’t take much to come to the conclusion that this scenario will empty your pockets over the medium to long term.
You can evaluate the Under 2.5 market by just using the Betfair web interface but the Correct Score market will be more difficult and time consuming to calculate. It is strongly recommended that you monitor your MLE closely and accurately with trading software. All of the well known brands have the facility of calculating your overall market position. An example below is from A Geeks Toy. Bet Angel Professional gives just one amount so you don’t have to add each individual score. AGT is free to use whilst BAP has a free trial followed by varied subscription lengths.
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Please visit my blog at where you can go straight to their sites by clicking on the appropriate banner.
Backing on Betfair with just £1
You will notice that on some occasions I state to back £1 on 0-3 and I recognise that Betfair that does not allow for a back less than £2 to be directly executed.
Here is a walkthrough of how you can get over this problem.
Place back at £2 making sure you change the odds to 1000.
You will get a warning stating that you are backing at odds higher then £99.
Once that is in the market go back to your back and increase the stake to £3.
Betfair will split the entries so you will not have a back at £1 and a back at £2.
Cancel the back of £2 and submit.
Go back to your back of £1 and amend to the correct price you require and submit.
Your £1 back has now been entered into the market.
The Homer Family
What makes the family stand out against many other strategies that I have come across is that you know where you stand to win or lose before you take the decision to trade. In basic terms the combined Homer and HomerDog offer an average of the same win to lose ratio. This means we can instantly know that when we use x2 stakes we will win or lose approx £46, x4 stakes £92, x6 stakes £138 etc.
For each single stakes you have a liability of around £60 so if you trade a game using x4 stakes you will need a bank of at least £240. Only use multiple stakes for major league games with high Correct Score market volumes. Late night South American games should only be traded at half to single stakes and should be classed as fun trades.
In simple terms if you get to at least half time with the all scores except 0-0 & 0-1 you will not lose and even with these two scores there are options to still scratch the entire trade.
For full details on the Full Homer Daily Service and how to get hold of the other Homer strategies please visit Andy’s site:
Homer and HomerLow
Homerlow is what the original Homer started out as. The Homer has evolved and tweaked into the strat of today. They are both extremely similar so I have grouped them together for easy reference.
The HomerLow instructions are in red.
The objective is for a home goal to be scored or for three away goals to be scored before the max loss exit is reached. Normally the exit is at half time but can be as late as the 65th minute.
By its very design the Homer qualifying parameters lends itself to the market predicting a low scoring game where the home team is favourite to win but not a strong favourite. The beauty of this strategy is that just one home goal is needed to be scored for the trader to be able to relax in the knowledge that whatever else happens there will be some kind of profitable return.
Brief Summary
The difference between the two strats is that HomerLow requires the under 2.5 lay to be matched at a price of 1.60 or lower before KO which is a rare occurrence.
The Homer under 2.5 lay will be matched on 9 minutes with a max price of 1.70 with First Goal cover for minutes 0-10.
Initial single stake trades:
Pre game:
BACK 1-0, BACK 1-1, BACK 2-0 to a combined value of £28
BACK 0-3 £1
BACK First Goal 0-10 minutes £2.50
In Play:
LAY U2.5 £51 at the price at 9 minutes and price is a maximum of 1.70.
The price at KO must be a maximum of 1.85 to allow for 0.15 reduction in 9 minutes.
If there is a goal before the lay. Exit the CS as soon as the market settles.
Pre game:
BACK 1-0, BACK 1-1, BACK 2-0 to a combined value of £27
BACK 0-3 £1
LAY U2.5 £50 maximum 1.60
In Play:
None
The maximum liability on single stakes is £66.50 if u2.5 lay price is the max of 1.70.
The possible profit after 9 minutes on single stakes is between £15-£78
The profit for the overs will always be £17 with no top up or £15 with top up at single stakes.
The MLE is £23.
However results so far show that the wins far exceed the losses which make it a profitable strategy.
The maximum liability on single stakes is £61.
The possible profit from the start on single stakes is between £17 & £80.
If the strategy is followed the maximum loss will be £22 but it usually lower.
However the wins far exceed the losses which make it a profitable strategy.
Match Selection by Criteria
The key to any long term strategy is the match criteria. If you follow the criteria in the order shown you will find that games are few and far between but previous results have shown that patience is rewarded.
• Betfair daily in-play coupon - Look for a game where the Match Odds home team back price is between 1.90 and 2.75 and away team price must be no lower than 2.85 to back.
• Disregard first leg games such as European games or Play offs or Group CL and Europa matches
• Disregard France and Portugal leagues.
• Disregard Scotland league apart from when Celtic and Rangers are playing each other.
• Under 2.5 to lay must be 1.85 for match selection. However the actual lay put into the market is a max of 1.70.
• Correct score bare minimums to back are 1-0 7.4, 1-1 7.4, 2-0 11.50, 0-3 30.00 if under 2.5 is 1.70 on 9 minutes. or 1-0 7.2, 1-1 7.2, 2-0 11.00 if the under 2.5 is 1.65 on 9 minutes.
• You need to examine the combinations of backing using a total liability of £28 (excluding 0-3 which is always £1). The 1-0 and 1-1 can be backed for a combined price of 14.8. For example 1-0 might be 8.00 so you could get away with 1-1 at 6.8’s. It takes practice to get the stakes to their premium effect.
• Examine league position recent results and home form. I use Futbol24 and select the last 9 home games for the home team. I also look at the last 6 away games for the away team although it’s the home stats that are the most important. If two teams are both in the bottom three their stats will not make good reading, but I usually pick the game on the basis that when two poor teams are up against each other they usually produce goals.
HomerLow has the same criteria
When to Place the Back/Lay
Often liquidity doesn’t start picking up until 3 hours before a game and you may have an idea which game you are going to play but the final decision should be made an hour before KO. For CS market ask the lay price for your back price about 90 minutes before KO and reduce to the current back price with about 10 minutes before KO.
The stakes you have already worked out should be based on the lower price so that any higher price is a nice bonus. I advise never to trade a game that has less than £6,000 in the CS market. Finally don’t forget the FG 0-10 back as it doesn’t go inplay.
HomerLow has the same criteria
Stakes & Prices
It goes without saying that the objective is to make a profit but it is also to limit the losses. The loss limit is £23 and if we were to lay from the start we would have to exit around 35 minutes. However it is statistically proven that there is more chance of a first goal between 9 minutes and HT than there is between the start and 35 minutes. Also because there is always added time at the end of a half there are more minutes to score that important goal.
The correct score backs are put into the market before KO. The back combinations of 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 must not exceed £28. 0-3 is always £1.
The correct score price bare minimums are 1-0 7.2, 1-1 7.2, 2-0 11.0 as long as under 2.5 starts at 1.80 so it can reduce to 1.65 when the game is at 9 minutes. Just remember that if the unders price is looking to start at 1.85 then your bare minimum needs to increase a tick for the main three scores because you enter the market at 1.70 on 9 minutes.
Please take into account that the maximum liability of the U2.5 will be £51 at 1.70= £35.70.
(The price at KO will be 1.85)
The minimum liability of the U2.5 will be £51 at 1.46 =£23.46
(The price at KO will be 1.61. Any lower and the HomerLow variation should be used)
Please make sure you look at the potential green scores in CS against the liability of the U2.5 to ensure you are fully aware of the possible profit. Always assume that you will add £2 to the 1-0 when the price hits 4.5 if that becomes the current score. You may be able to use lower CS prices if the U2.5 is also low.
Let’s look at an example of a typical distribution of £29 worth of backs. If the score becomes 1-0 it needs to be topped up at £2 when the price hits 4.50 so that 1-0 and 2-0 are around the same value. The margin of profitability is controlled by the liability of the under 2.5market and I have produced a table at the bottom of this section which gives the price and the corresponding liability based on a lay of £51 and don’t forget to include the £2.50 FG back when calculating the Homer’s overall profitability.
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The reason 1-0 has the lowest green is so that we don’t waste the extra backing cost if the away team scores first. If the home team scores first you can make the choice of topping up 1-0 with £2 or holding your position in case a subsequent goal is scored. The reason 1-1 is the highest green is that it gives us extra leverage to offset a 0-1 position if it starts to go wrong. Also the tiny £1 back on 0-3 will help to assist too.
We are going to enter the lay of U2.5 on 9 minutes but if an away goal is scored before 9 minutes we are vulnerable to a £10 - £12 loss with no cover on a high score. If a home goal is scored before 9 minutes we are also vulnerable to a scratch to £5 loss with no cover on a high score. Therefore we need to cover our position backing the First Goal market 0-10 minutes for £2.50. The prices will be between 5.2 and 6.0 and will give a profit of between £10 and £11. If a goal is scored before the lay enters the market we exit CS immediately having pocketed the FG. So we have a net position at worst of a scratch if it was the away team that scores or small profit if it was the home team. Please note that the FG market does NOT go in play.
On 9 minutes lay under 2.5 goals for £51 which will give a net green total on overs of £49.50 after comm. The minimum price we lay is 1.70 but for every 0.05 reduction in price you will gain almost £2 profit if a 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 half time score is obtained. We can pick a game with u2.5 at 1.85 because it should reduce by 0.15 within 9 minutes. On rare occasions if the game starts off with frantic end to end chances the price could stay above 1.70 by 9 minutes. In this case you have a choice either to take the price limiting your potential profit if 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 or to take the chance of holding on until the price reached 1.70 with a real risk of an immediate loss if it becomes 0-1, or you may decide not to proceed any further and just exit the trade by closing the CS market. If you decide to lay at a price higher than 1.70 it will limit the potential profit on the three CS scores but if the game end as overs the profit is the standard for a Homer.
The lay of under 2.5 goals is always £51 and the correct score liability is always £29.
Use the table below to help calculate your overall under 2.5 liabilities. Don’t forget to also deduct the FG for the Homer at £2.50. HomerLow does not use the FG.
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The staking does take a little time to get used to but as a rough guide the CS greens should show:
1-0 Beginning to mid 40’s
1-1 Mid to end 50’s
2-0 Beginning to mid 50’s
In summary:
Back CS scores 1-0 1-1 2-0 totalling £28 with an additional £1 on 0-3.
Back First Goal 0-10 minutes for £2.50.
Lay U2.5 on 9 minutes for maximum price of 1.70 for £51.
When the U2.5 is 1.60 or lower we can lay from the start (therefore don’t need the FG back) as the price normally reduces slower so we find that we can more often reach HT with our maximum acceptable loss. The lay is slightly lower as we are not spending that extra £2 .50 on the FG back.
In summary:
Back CS scores 1-0 1-1 2-0 totalling £28 with an additional £1 on 0-3.
Lay U2.5 from start for maximum price of 1.60 for £50.
Outcome Summary at HT if lay has been placed at 9 minutes (HomerLow from start)
1-0 Profit. Leave the CS and unders market open until the end.
1-1 Profit. Leave the CS and unders markets open until the 80th minute and then start to lay off 1-1 to reduce some of the CS liabilities in case of overs.
2-0 Profit. Leave the CS and unders markets open until the 80th minute and then start to lay off 2-0 to reduce some of the CS liabilities in case of overs.
0-1 Loss of about £12-£20. If MLE has not been reached continue until all markets total a loss of £20. If MLE is reached, immediately close the CS which should result in a loss of approx £10 in that market. Then hedge the under 2.5 market to leave a loss of £11 and a profit of £12.50 on the over 2.5. If a further two goals are scored the entire trade is a scratch otherwise it’s a loss of £23.
0-2 Profit of about £37 in the U/O 2.5 market and the correct score will show a small loss as the 0-3 will be the only back that is still active. It is personal choice whether to close the U2.5 and CS for a profit or continue for a chance of the all important third goal. If you continue the MLE will be reached between 60 and 70 minutes.
0-3 The lay of the u2.5 will be successful plus the CS will be either a scratch or a slight loss as the 0-3 will still be active. An exit at this point will give a profit of around £45. If you continue and the game ends in a score other than 0-3 the total profit will be approx £17.50. If the game ends 0-3 the profit will be approx £70.
0-0 This is the only score with a potential of a max loss at half time but all is still not lost. Back the same amount that you layed on the u2.5 which will leave a scratch if there are three goals in the second half.
Any other score with 3 or more goals. Profit will always be either £15.50 or £17.50 inc commission depending on whether the 1-0 was ever topped up.(£49-£29-£2.50)
Outcome Summary if a goal is scored before the 9 minute lay of under 2.5
1-0 Either a scratch or a medium profit depending on whether the goal is scored very quickly or on 8 minutes.
0-1 Either a very small loss or a scratch depending on whether the goal is scored very quickly or on 8 minutes.
In either case it is vitally important that the CS is traded out as soon as the market has re-settled because a second goal will result in a much bigger loss. Particularly 0-2 which will lose the entire CS liability. Two early goals are rare but they do happen.
The Scalp
If you scalp 0-0 pre-match £100 for just one 0.5 tick you will have approx £50 green on that score at the start. This will give you the option to close your positions with a scratch at HT rather than facing a loss or continue for 10-15 minutes into the second half. The scalp is a powerful addition as the only losing score at HT will be 0-1. Scalping the 0-1 pre-match is far more difficult but if it can be achieved then the trade will be a scratch at worst without a ball being kicked!
When it goes right
A home goal between 9 and 20 minutes will see the 1-0 increase in price and allow you to top up the score by £2. However this would be at the cost of the other CS scores and U2.5 market where a guaranteed profit would be reduced by £2. Another option is to do nothing and hope for another goal before HT thus saving that £2. You may decide to do nothing and hope for the second goal but the profit will be very small if the game ends 1-0 so you really should top up when the price hits 6. If you really want to hang I suggest the absolute latest to top up is at half time and recommend increasing to £3.
If an away goal arrives first then don’t worry and most importantly don’t panic. A second goal, whoever scores, will change your position into profit. If it becomes 0-2 then you may be surprised to know that it is good news. You have lost most of the CS liability with only the 0-3 in play but the U2.5 lay will be worth at least £37 if 0-2 in the first half hour and you can trade out with a nice profit. However if you hang on until the MLE is reached you will have that extra time for an all important third goal is scored. If that third goal is scored by the away team then the trade will be extremely strong and could be up to £80 in profit thanks to that tiny £1 back at 0-3 pre-match. The decisions at 0-2 are very much personal choice.
Please take a look at this link to my blog about the 0-2 scenario.
When it goes wrong the MLE still gives the chance to scratch
The exit point is when the losses in all markets reach £20.
At 0-0 it is almost certainly at half time. The CS market is closed at a scratch while the under 2.5 is backed at the same amount as the original lay which will leave 0 on overs and an entire scratch of the trade if 3 goals in the second half. This hedge will cost £3 making the total loss £23 if the 3 goals do not materialise.
Similarly the 0-1 is exited when the total loss reaches £20. This will be anywhere between 45 and 55 minutes. The CS is closed at a loss of approx £10 then hedge the under 2.5 market to leave a loss of £11 and a profit of £12.50 on the over 2.5. If a further two goals are scored the entire trade is a scratch otherwise it’s a loss of £23.
Conclusion
This is a successful long term strategy and currently has a no loss strike rate of 70%. The Homer family as a whole has a no loss strike rate of 72%.
Results of the last 190 family of Homers are:
121 Green 17 Scratch 53 Red
No loss strike rate is 72%.
It’s simple, it works and there is nothing like it across the Internet. The only negative is that there are not enough of them. It won’t make you a millionaire but it will be a reliable stream of profit if followed to the letter.
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