Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State - Why ...
Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Extra material
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Why Americans Vote the Way They Do
Andrew Gelman
Dept of Statistics and Dept of Political Science, Columbia University
29 Oct 2010
1/62
Andrew Gelman
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Extra material
Election 2010
The Paradox
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Election 2010
I Public opinion and voting
I Factors that predict congressional elections
I What's going on with public opinion?
2/62
Andrew Gelman
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Extra material
Election 2010
The Paradox
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Public opinion and voting time series
I Most variable: Presidential approval
I Less variable: Trial-heat polls (Whom party do you plan to
vote for?)
I Less variable: Presidential election outcomes
I Less variable: Congressional election outcomes
I Slowest to vary: Party identication
3/62
Andrew Gelman
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Extra material
Election 2010
The Paradox
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Congressional and presidential voting
4/62
Andrew Gelman
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Geography, Income, and Voters
Explanations and Implications
Extra material
Election 2010
The Paradox
Journalists Get It Wrong (and Right)
Unpredictability of polling trends
I Polling is essentially a random walk . . . the polls are about
equally likely to move toward one or another candidate,
regardless of which way they have moved in the past.
Nate Silver, New York Times, Oct 2010
I You can't use past polling trends to predict the future
I Analogy to coin ipping, ecient stock prices
I Random walk sounds reasonable, but . . .
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Andrew Gelman
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
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