CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM



Caspian Studies Program

STRENGTHENING DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS PROJECT

KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT

HARVARD UNIVERSITY

NEWSLETTER JANUARY 2002

PROGRAM CHAIR: GRAHAM ALLISON

Program Director: Melissa Carr Editor: John Grennan

This Caspian Studies Program (CSP) newsletter highlights CSP activities that occurred during Fall 2001.

CSP Research Director SHAFFER TESTIFIES IN CONGRESS

On October 10, the Caspian Studies Program’s Research Director Brenda Shaffer gave a briefing on the Caspian region to the U.S. House of Representatives International Relations Committee. The hearing was convened by Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Earl Hilliard (D-AL), the chairman and ranking member of the House European Subcommittee, respectively.

In addition to Dr. Shaffer, the hearing featured scholars from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In her testimony, Shaffer outlined the Caspian region’s development into an important alternative source of oil. She also indicated that the United States has an opportunity to establish strong relationships with the Muslim countries of the region.

The recommendations Shaffer made in her testimony, and in her earlier CSP Policy Brief “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: Recommendations for the Bush Administration,” have helped shape the discussion in policy circles. These recommendations included supporting an East-West petroleum pipeline in the Caspian region and making a serious effort to repeal sanctions against Azerbaijan.

Shaffer’s testimony was widely covered in the Azerbaijani press and cited as a key turning point in the debate over Section 907 sanctions against Azerbaijan. This month, President Bush signed a bill that waived sanctions against Azerbaijan for one year.

Georgian President Shevardnadze speaks at Kennedy School

On October 3, Georgian President and former Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze addressed the Harvard community, speaking on the topic of “Searching for Security in a Changing World.”

The speech marked the tenth anniversary of Georgia’s independence and was sponsored by the Caspian Studies Program and the Institute of Politics.

In his discussion of terrorism and other security challenges, Shevardnadze said that international institutions such as the United Nations could play a key role in improving global security in the post-September 11th world. Shevardnadze expressed his belief that the greatest challenge facing leaders in the new century is to address the widening gap between rich and poor countries.

He also discussed Georgia’s own security situation—including its desire to join NATO, its evolving relationship with Russia, and the civil war in Abkhazia.

Photograph by Martha Stewart

CSP PUBLICATIONS AND MEDIA

CSP Chair Offers Commentary

About Kazakhstan in Boston Globe . . .

Immediately following the visit of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United States in December, Caspian Studies Program Chair Graham Allison wrote an op-ed piece in the Boston Globe on January 6 about Kazakhstan’s leadership in the campaign against the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Nonproliferation is a significant strategic issue facing the region and an issue that Professor Allison knows well. When he served as assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, Allison worked with President Nazarbayev to make Kazakhstan a non-nuclear state.

The article explained that Kazakhstan is more than just an oil-rich state. It is also a leader in regional affairs and can continue to be a positive force in the campaign for nuclear nonproliferation.

According to Allison, Nazarbayev has the best opportunity among regional leaders to broker the completion of the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty.

. . . and for TASS TV

After this piece appeared in the Boston Globe, TASS TV of Russia and Kazakhstan interviewed Dr. Allison about Kazakhstan’s role in nuclear nonproliferation.

CSP’s Allison Provides Introduction for President Nazarbayev’s Book

During this past summer, CSP Chair Graham Allison also wrote the introduction to President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Epicenter of Peace, a book that provides a first-hand account of Kazakhstan’s role in combating nuclear proliferation. In his introduction, Allison lauded Nazarbayev for convincing Kazakhstan to relinquish the nuclear arsenal it inherited when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

For more information on CSP Publications, visit our web site ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi

CSP’s Shaffer on a ‘Caspian Alternative to OPEC’ in Wall Street Journal

In the November 7 Wall Street Journal, CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer published an article in which she discussed the security risks associated with the United States’ current reliance on Persian Gulf oil and new opportunities in the oil industries of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

Shaffer’s article indicated that increased flows of Caspian oil, while not serving as a replacement for oil from countries like Saudi Arabia, could help to reduce the power the OPEC cartel has in determining international oil prices. She also discussed the need to resolve the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict in order to improve the security situation within the region.

In addition:

Elchin Amirbayov, counselor on political affairs at Azerbaijan’s Mission to NATO, wrote “Shusha’s Pivotal Role in a Nagorno-Karabagh Settlement, ” the latest installment in the Caspian Studies Policy Brief series. Amirbayov was previously a United States Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC) Fellow and completed the Senior Executives in National and International Security Program at the Kennedy School in 2000.

In August, Pavel Baev, senior researcher at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, published “Russia Refocuses its Policies in the Southern Caucasus,” the first CSP Working Paper.

Brenda Shaffer was profiled in Investor’s Business Daily on November 8, as part of the feature article “Caspian Oil Fields Increase in Significance with Gulf Volatility.” She was interviewed by several media outlets in the Fall of 2001, including The New York Times and The Washington Times, as well as many publications in

Turkey, Israel, and Azerbaijan. She is also the author of the recently-published and widely-distributed Caspian Studies Program Policy Brief, “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: Recommendations for the Bush Administration.”

CSP Seminars and Outreach

On September 27, Nurlan Kapparov, former Kazakhstani vice-minister of energy and mineral resources, spoke at the Belfer Center Director's Seminar on the topic of oil and other natural energy resources in Kazakhstan. Mr. Kapparov also addressed the political relationship between Kazakhstan, Russia, and the West in terms of oil and Caspian Sea development.

[pic]Nurlan Kapparov with CSP Chair Graham Allison at the Kennedy School on September 27. Photograph from BCSIA Archives

On October 16, Brenda Shaffer, Doug Blum (Brown University), Markus Fischer (Pitzer College), Gerard Libaridian (University of Michigan), and Yusup Magdiev (Harvard University) convened and discussed “Culture and Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian.” This was the first of two meetings that will lead to Culture and Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian Region, an edited volume to be published in 2002.

Anna Politkovskaya, special correspondent for Novaya Gazeta and author of A Dirty War: A Russian Reporter in Chechnya, spoke at a Caspian Studies Program event held at the Kennedy School on November 19. Ms. Politkovskaya discussed the current situation in Chechnya, as well as her own experience working on the ground in the region.

Maury Devine, a fellow at the Caspian Studies program since 2000, continues her work among the Caspian and energy policy-making communities in Washington, D.C. Her recent activities include involvement in the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Energy Program.

Brenda Shaffer, the research director of the Caspian Studies Program, has had an active past few months of policy outreach and conference activities in Europe and the Caucasus. Some highlights are described below:

( In her two most recent trips to the Caspian region, Shaffer held meetings with Azerbaijani government leaders, as well as members of the international business and diplomatic communities in Baku. In September, she met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev, as well as high-ranking members of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Security. She also met with leaders of SOCAR, ExxonMobil, BP Azerbaijan, and CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, LTD., in order to discuss energy policy and the strategic situation in the Caspian region. In November, at the invitation of President Heydar Aliyev, she attended the Azerbaijanis of the World Forum in Baku. During this trip, she discussed policy issues with Ross Wilson, the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan.

( Shaffer also gave several presentations at policy conferences in Europe. In October, she traveled to Brussels to participate in a conference on conflicts in the southern Caucasus. This meeting was sponsored by TESEV, the leading independent foreign policy think tank in Turkey. In December, Shaffer gave a presentation on “Implications of the September 11 Events for Central Asia and the Caucasus” at the Landau Network-Centro Volta Conference on energy issues, held in Como, Italy.

( Shaffer continues her extensive involvement with Israeli policymakers. In August, she participated in a conference of Israeli ambassadors to the former Soviet Union held in Warsaw, where she met with Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and other Israeli diplomatic leaders. In December, she gave a lecture on Caucasus and Central Asian issues to Israel’s National Security Council.

The tragic events of September 11 and their repercussions have raised the profile of the Caspian region and its strategic importance in the eyes of many Americans. CSP Chair Graham Allison and Research Director Brenda Shaffer—as well as CSP program staff and fellows—have been actively engaged in ongoing discussions with members of the Bush administration, Congress, and Caspian regional leaders, as they formulate and analyze their response to terrorism and its implications for the countries of the Caspian region.

CSP News

CSP Chair Graham Allison introduced Senator Charles Hagel (R-NE), at the Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics Forum on October 17. In his speech, Hagel advocated repealing sanctions against certain foreign countries—including Azerbaijan. Hagel was recently named to the Senate Central Asia and Caucasus Subcommittee.

Photograph by Thomas J. Fitzsimmons

On September 25, CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Ross Wilson, and Azerbaijani Ambassador to the United States Hafiz Pashayev spoke at a ceremony held at the U.S. Embassy in Baku for recent Azerbaijani graduates of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. The event, which was co-sponsored by the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Studies Program, honored Azerbaijani graduates of the Kennedy School’s Executive Education and Master’s Degree Programs, as well as the sponsors who funded their studies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, LTD., CCC, ETPM, and Statoil. In December, one of these former students of the Kennedy School, Afgan Abdullayev, won the Edmund Muskie/Freedom Support Award from the U.S. Department of State Cultural Affairs and Social Relations Bureau.

On November 1-3, the Kennedy School held its Fifth Annual Russian Investment Symposium—the world’s leading forum for business and government leaders from the United States and Russia to discuss the business climate in Russia. One panel focused on foreign investment in the oil and gas sector and highlighted the countries of the Caspian region. This panel was moderated by Thane Gustafson of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and included high-level representatives from ExxonMobil, BP, Access Industries, and Rosneftegazstroy.

The Kennedy School faculty continues to incorporate Caspian issues more fully into the curriculum. In December, Professor Keith Allred invited Nagorno-Karabagh’s representative to the United States, Vardan Barseghyan, to address his Negotiations class and engage graduate students in discussing possible solutions to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Mohammad Haririakbari, professor of social sciences at Tabriz University in Iran, has joined the Caspian Studies Program as a visiting scholar for the 2001-2002 academic year. While he is in the United States, he will be focusing his research on emerging socio-cultural phenomenon in Iranian Azerbaijan, as well as new possible pipeline routes for Caspian energy.

The Caspian Studies Program seeks to locate the Caspian region on the maps of the American policy-making community as an area in which the United States has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major differences. Through its research and teaching, the Caspian Studies Program helps raise the profile of the region’s opportunities and problems and utilizes Harvard resources to train new leaders who will shape the future of the region.

SDI PROJECT, BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY

79 JFK STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138

Phone: (617) 496-1565 Fax: (617) 496-8779 Email: SDIJFK@harvard.edu

Website:

Graham Allison, Chair

Melissa Carr, Program Director Brenda Shaffer, Research Director

Maury Devine, Fellow Annaliis Abrego, Administrative Assistant

Mohammad Haririakbari, Fellow John Grennan, Research Assistant

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