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SECURING THE PACIFIC SKIES:

The Imperative for Expanding Japan's Fifth-Generation Capacity

By Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) Douglas A. Birkey and Heather R. Penney

Note to readers: this electronic edition features an interactive table of contents and endnotes. Click on the page number in the table of contents to be taken to the respective chapter; endnotes in the text are linked to their respective citation at the end of this study. Click on the citation number to go back.

SECURING THE PACIFIC SKIES:

The Imperative for Expanding Japan's Fifth-Generation Capacity

By Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) Douglas A. Birkey

and Heather R. Penney

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Air Force Association Arlington, VA December 2019

About the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies

The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote understanding of the national security advantages of exploiting the domains of air, space, and cyberspace. The Mitchell Institute goals are: 1) to educate the public about the advantages of aerospace power in achieving America's global interests; 2) to inform key decision makers about the policy options created by exploiting the domains of air, space, and cyberspace, and the importance of necessary investment to keep America the world's premier aerospace nation; and 3) to cultivate future policy leaders who understand the advantages of operating in air, space, and cyberspace. Mitchell Institute maintains a policy not to advocate for specific proprietary systems or specific companies in its research and study efforts.

? 2019 Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. All rights reserved.

About the Authors

Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) is the dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. A decorated military leader, Deptula has significant experience in combat and has held leadership roles in several major joint contingency operations, where he planned, flew, and commanded aerospace operations. These ranged from humanitarian relief efforts to major theater war. Deptula served as the principal attack planner for the Operation Desert Storm air campaign, was commander of the Combined Task Force for Operation Northern Watch, directed the air campaign over Afghanistan as part of the initial combat operations in Operation Enduring Freedom, and twice served as a joint task force commander. In 2005, he served as the air commander for Operation Unified Assistance, the South Asia tsunami relief effort. Deptula has more than 3,000 flying hours over the course of his military service (400 of which were in combat), to include multiple command assignments in the F-15. In his last assignment, as the Air Force's first deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), he transformed the U.S. military's ISR and remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) enterprises. From the University of Virginia, Deptula holds a B.A. in astronomy and an M.S. in systems engineering. He also holds an M.S. in national security strategy from the National War College at Fort McNair, Washington, DC. Deptula is a prolific author on aerospace power, and a thought leader on national defense, strategy, and ISR.

Douglas A. Birkey is the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. An expert on aerospace power technology, history, and defense resourcing, he leads Mitchell's congressional and public outreach efforts. An experienced Capitol Hill staffer and government relations professional, Birkey has authored numerous documents that have informed defense legislation and has also written extensively on aerospace and defense issues. Prior to becoming Mitchell's executive director, Birkey was the director of government relations for the Air Force Association. Birkey holds an M.A. in international affairs from Georgetown University.

Heather R. Penney is a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute, where she conducts research and analysis on defense policy, focusing on the critical advantage of aerospace power. Prior to joining Mitchell Institute, Penney worked in the aerospace and defense industry, leading budget analysis activities, program execution, and campaign management. An Air Force veteran and pilot, Penney served in the Washington, DC Air National Guard flying F-16s and G-100s and has also served in the Air Force Reserve in the National Military Command Center.

Cover design by Zaur Eylanbekov; photos: SSgt. Matthew Lotz, SrA Alexander Cook / U.S. Air Force.

Contents

FOREWORD_________________________________________________________________________1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY_______________________________________________________________2 INTRODUCTION_____________________________________________________________________5 FIFTH-GENERATION TECHNOLOGY IS THE NEW STANDARD___________________________7 THE MODERN THREAT______________________________________________________________10 FIFTH-GENERATION AIRCRAFT AND THE MODERN THREAT__________________________16 MODERN STEALTH AND SURVIVABILITY IN ADVANCED THREAT ENVIRONMENTS______18 BATTLESPACE AWARENESS AND DECISION SUPERIORITY IN FIFTH-GENERATION AIRCRAFT___________________________________________________19 THE SYNERGY OF STEALTH AND INFORMATION-- OFFENSIVE INITIATIVE AND MANEUVER____________________________________________ 22 THE LIABILITY OF MIXED FOURTH AND FIFTH-GENERATION FLEETS__________________24 FIFTH-GENERATION AIRCRAFT AND THE COMBAT CLOUD--HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AND LETHAL OPERATIONS_________________________________________________________ 26 THE CASE FOR JAPANESE FIFTH-GENERATION AIRCRAFT___________________________ 27 REPURPOSING THE PROVEN STRENGTHS OF THE F-22 AND F-35_____________________ 29 PRACTICAL EFFICIENCIES OF THE F-22/F-35 REPLACEMENT SOLUTION FOR JAPAN___ 32 JAPAN'S PLAN B OPTIONS_________________________________________________________ 35 CONCLUSION: NEXT-GENERATION AIRPOWER IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC_________________ 37

Foreword

The government of Japan will soon choose a path to develop a new fighter aircraft to replace the Japan Air Self-Defense Forces' venerable F-2. With tensions on the rise in the Asia-Pacific region, this decision will prove consequential for decades into the future. Air superiority is an essential capability required to secure a broad range of desired effects for territorial defense.

Executing this mission in the modern era demands several key attributes, including stealth-enabled survivability and the ability to gather, process, and share information in real time. Eventually, these capabilities and attributes will play a key role in actualizing the "combat cloud" construct, and will refine modern fifth-generation combat aviation. Of special concern to Japan, China has developed two fifthgeneration fighters, the J-20 and J-31, and experts predict a fifth-generation bomber may soon follow. These investments threaten to alter the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific if left unchecked.

Japan requires a fifth-generation air superiority solution for its `Future Fighter' in the near term that is affordable, does not involve undue technical risk, and is optimized for its own unique mission demands within the Asia-Pacific region--particularly when it comes to range.

This Mitchell Institute report explores a potential path forward that would see Japan acquire a new fifthgeneration fighter that leverages the physical design of the F-22 Raptor, enhanced with a larger, rangeextending wing. This larger aircraft would also be outfitted with the modern sensing and computing power of the F-35 to assure initial capabilities. Not only would this hybrid approach afford valuable performance attributes, but it would do so in a time and budget-conscious framework favorable to Japanese priorities. This F-2 replacement would also integrate seamlessly with existing allied F-35s and American F-22s. The future security environment is far from certain in the Pacific region. What is clear is the need to invest in forward-leaning capabilities. Fifth-generation air superiority aircraft stand at the top of this list.

Lt Gen David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.) Dean, The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies

December 2019



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Executive Summary

Leaders in Japan will soon need to make a decision that will fundamentally reshape the country's security posture for the 21st century--what will replace the aging F-2 multirole fighter aircraft? Derived from the F-16, the aircraft is the Japan Air Self-Defense Force's (JASDF) mainline multirole fighter aircraft, but it is increasingly obsolete against the Asia-Pacific threat picture.

Japan must invest in advanced fifth-generation aircraft to succeed the F-2, using the latest stealth technology to survive threats, advanced sensors for situational awareness, cutting-edge data-processing capacity, and the ability to conduct secure, automated, real-time communications across the joint spectrum. Given that China has developed its own fifth-generation aircraft, it is crucial that Japan's F-2 replacement keeps pace. Anything less capable will leave Japan at risk.

The threat posed by China is not abstract. It has militarized much of the South China Sea by constructing 3,000-plus acres of man-made islands outfitted with military airstrips, sensors, facilities, and surface-toair missiles (SAMs). To the north, China has forcefully challenged claims over disputed areas in the East China Sea, such as the Senkaku Islands. In 2013, China unilaterally extended an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) into Japan's internationally recognized ADIZ in the East China Sea. Japan's intercepts of Chinese aircraft have grown significantly.

Beijing's aggressive actions are backed up with robust capabilities. The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) now possesses 1,700 fighter aircraft, 400 bombers, 475 transports, and 115 special-mission aircraft. The PLAAF has also invested in modernizing its fighter inventory with fourth-generation variants based on Russian designs like the Su-27 and the Su-30, along with the indigenous J-10 fighter. It also developed and fielded two new fifth-generation fighter aircraft in rapid succession, the J-20 and J-31. These will pose critical challenges to the bulk of the JASDF, U.S. Air Force, and U.S. Navy inventories, which are predominantly composed of fourth-generation fighters such as the F-15, F-16, F/A-18, and the F-2.

China has also enhanced the reach of SAMs, air-to-air missiles, and standoff strike missiles. Added to this, PLAAF leadership declared their intention to develop a new long-range stealth bomber. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates this aircraft could be flight ready by 2025 and feature a range of 5,000 miles, holding all of Japan's territory at risk.

To right the power imbalance, Japan must be strategic in its modernization choices and focus on buying or developing new capabilities that will generate an asymmetric advantage. This approach is critical to the success of the JASDF's F-2 replacement effort. Japan should develop and acquire the most capable fifthgeneration aircraft with superior range and payload to succeed the fourth-generation F-2, which is slated to leave Japan's force structure by the mid-2030s.

In order to meet this challenge, the Mitchell Institute offers the following recommendations:

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Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies

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