Air Base Attacks and Defensive Counters

Research Report

Air Base Attacks and

Defensive Counters

Historical Lessons and Future Challenges

Alan J. Vick

C O R P O R AT I O N

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Preface

In the past decade, U.S. national security policymakers and defense analysts have given

increasing attention to the problem of adversary anti-access and area-denial strategies. These

strategies are intended to inhibit U.S. political and operational access to and disrupt U.S.

operations in key regions. A central feature of adversary anti-access strategies is capabilities

designed to disrupt the operation of U.S. and partner-nation forward air bases. Although

emerging systems, such as precision standoff systems, present new challenges to air base

operations, attacks on air bases are nothing novel, dating back to the opening months of World

War I. In the past century, air base attacks have been common in both small and large wars;

specialized tactics and systems have been developed for offensive operations against adversary

bases and for the defense of friendly bases.

To better understand this policy problem and explore the relative effectiveness of potential

solutions, RAND Project AIR FORCE has conducted a series of assessments over recent years

exploring historical, political, and operational aspects of the access problem. This report is

designed to complement these more-operational and technical analyses¡ªwhich are generally not

available to the general public, media, and academic communities. The objective is to better

inform the public debate on this important policy problem. This report is also intended as a

reference for those military planners, strategists, war-college students, and other defense

professionals who have not yet had an opportunity to delve deeply into the topic. It presents an

overview of the problem, describes the history of air base attacks and defensive counters, and

broadly explores emerging challenges and options to enhance the future operability of air bases.

This report integrates and extends an analysis that was originally commissioned by 13th Air

Force and Headquarters Air Force Operational Planning Policy and Strategy, as well as research

conducted in support of the fiscal year 2014 U.S. Air Force Scientific Advisory Board study

¡°Defense of USAF Forward Bases.¡± The research described in this report was conducted within

the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air

Force¡¯s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF

provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the

development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and

cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment;

Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The

research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C0001.

iii

Additional information about PAF is available on our website:



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Contents

Preface............................................................................................................................................ iii

?

Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii

?

Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix

?

Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi

?

Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................... xvii

?

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xix

?

Chapter One. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1

?

Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1

?

The Policy Problem .................................................................................................................................. 2

?

Purpose of This Report ............................................................................................................................. 2

?

Organization of This Report ..................................................................................................................... 2

?

Chapter Two. A Short History of Attacks on Air Bases ................................................................. 3

?

Chapter Three. A New American Way of War? ........................................................................... 11

?

Rapidly Deploy Large Joint Forces ........................................................................................................ 13

?

Create Rear-Area Sanctuaries ................................................................................................................. 13

?

Closely Monitor Enemy Activities ......................................................................................................... 14

?

Begin Combat Operations ...................................................................................................................... 15

?

Seize the Initiative with Air and Missile Campaigns ............................................................................. 15

?

Sustain the Air Campaign from Sortie Factories .................................................................................... 16

?

Chapter Four. Back to the Future: The End of the Sanctuary Era ................................................ 19

?

Ballistic and Cruise Missiles .................................................................................................................. 19

?

Effects of Missile Attacks on Air Bases ............................................................................................. 23

?

Ground-Force Threats to Air Bases ........................................................................................................ 24

?

Future Ground Threats to Air Bases ....................................................................................................... 27

?

Unguided Mortars ............................................................................................................................... 28

?

Precision Standoff Attacks ................................................................................................................. 29

?

Commando Attacks ............................................................................................................................ 30

?

Effects of Ground Attacks on Air Bases ............................................................................................ 31

?

Disruptive Innovation and the American Way of War ........................................................................... 32

?

Chapter Five. Defensive Options .................................................................................................. 39

?

Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception ............................................................................................ 40

?

Hardening ............................................................................................................................................... 43

?

On-Base Dispersal .................................................................................................................................. 53

?

Dispersal Across Many Bases ................................................................................................................ 54

?

Postattack Recovery ............................................................................................................................... 56

?

Toward More-Resilient Basing .............................................................................................................. 58

?

Looking to the Future ............................................................................................................................. 59

?

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