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HIGH FREQUENCY INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

LAST UPDATED: September 20, 2021 Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research Sara Reynolds, Associate Director of Business Development

Introduction

? This special edition of the Orlando Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market and economic indicators. Originally published to signal worsening or bettering employment outcomes for the region, this overview now serves to provide insight into the pace of Orlando's economic recovery or potentially alert readers to new contractions.

? View the indicators and key takeaways on the following slides. More in-depth trend analysis is included after the key takeaways. Topics include consumer spending, job posting activity, and how those outcomes are influenced by the size of the labor force, industry employment, the unemployment rate, and number of airport passengers.

? Where the data is available, indicators are tracked by their short-term change, signaling current momentum, and their change against a pre-pandemic baseline, highlighting COVID-19's net impact.

? All data are for the Orlando Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unless otherwise noted. The Orlando MSA is made up of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole County, the orange counties in the map to the right.

covid19

High Frequency Indicators to Watch ? Orlando MSA

1.

Consumer Spending

Change in consumer spending for Florida, compared to a January

2020 baseline.

September 05

+18.8%

+2.3 pp MoM +18.8% Jan 2020

Weekly

covid19

2.

Jobs Postings

The number of open job postings, posted online, in the Orlando metropolitan area.

August

30,411

-5.9% MoM +25.6% Aug 2019

Monthly

3.

Labor Force

The total number of people who are employed or unemployed and actively looking for work.

4.

Industry Employment

The total number of jobs in the region, measured by a company's

location and industry.

August

1,348,628

+0.3% MoM (+4,425) -2.3% Feb 2020

August

1,236,400

+1.4% MoM (+17,600) -8.1% Feb 2020

Monthly

Monthly

MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week Feb or Jan 2020 ? Percent change against monthly baseline Source: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass

High Frequency Indicators to Watch ? Orlando MSA

covid19

5.

Unemployment Rate

The percentage of people in the labor force who are temporarily

or permanently unemployed.

August

5.0%

-0.3 pp MoM +1.9 pp Feb 2020

Monthly

6.

Airport Passengers

Total passengers at Orlando International Airport, enplaned

and deplaned, including international and domestic travel.

July

4.1M

8.6% MoM 265.7% YoY

Monthly

MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week Feb or Jan 2020 ? Percent change against monthly baseline Source: Orlando International Airport statistical reports, Brookings Metro Recovery Index

Key Takeaways

? As of September 05, 2021, consumer spending in Florida was 18 percent above a pre-pandemic baseline. While spending has been consistently above the baseline since April of this year, the summer months brought on an even larger increase. Locally, consumer spending is anywhere from 13 to 37 percent above pre-pandemic levels. The recent, sharp increase is partly due to major increases in entertainment and recreation spending. For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, entertainment and recreation spending is above a January 2020 baseline. This narrowed persistent, industry spending gaps as retail spending fell slightly and restaurant and hotel spending rose. The next few months will determine if these increased spending levels remain beyond the summer for industries that have not seen this level of payments in almost two years.

? The size of the regional labor force improved again in August, as 4,400+ people rejoined the workforce. The labor force is a measure of the number of people who are working age and are either employed or unemployed and actively looking for work. This makes for eight straight months of gains for the labor force. Meanwhile, a new indicator on active job postings shows that there were more than 30,000 online job posts in Orlando for the month of August. This is down slightly month-over-month but represents 26 percent more posting activity than the same month in 2019. Job posting activity has greatly increased overall but Orlando's labor force is still 2.3 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Other indicators signal that while the labor force number is steadily improving, labor market frictions and potential skill mis-matches continue (across the country) as employers struggle to fill open positions or retain talent.

? In August, the region did re-gain 17,600 jobs, 9,400 of which were in the government sector. Local government employment typically rises in August and September as teachers and faculty are re-hired for the school year. Those increases aside, 1,000 or more jobs were gained per-industry in Retail (1,000), Other Services (1,200), Leisure & Hospitality (1,300), Financial Activities (1,600) and Professional & Business Services (1,800). No major industry lost jobs last month. This brings Orlando closer to reaching pre-pandemic levels of employment. Nationally, Construction, Professional & Business Services, and Financial Activities have reached employment levels higher than a January 2020 baseline.

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