Florida Credit Union Profile

Florida Credit Union Profile

First Quarter 2020

CUNA Economics & Statistics

Florida Credit Union Profile

First quarter 2020

Early Warning Signs The U.S. economy officially entered a recession in February due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has caused both widespread human suffering and severe economic disruption. Social distancing, event cancellation, school closures, and "stay at home" orders--all of which are critical to controlling the public health crisis--have dramatically reduced routine economic activity.

Unemployment Rates

Percent. Source: BLS. 4.4

3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8

4.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5

The economy shrank at a 5.0 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter, foreshadowing the tremendous economic dislocation that the pandemic will cause throughout the year.

In parallel, the U.S. unemployment rate increased from 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent in March, marking the largest increase in unemployment since the Great Recession. The unemployment rate has since risen even more dramatically and currently sits at 11.1 percent through June 2020, well above the peak of the Great Recession when unemployment reached 10.0 percent. In Florida, the unemployment rate increased from 2.8 percent to 4.4 percent in March, and reached an all-time record of 13.8 percent in April.

Consumer sentiment steadily increased to 101.0 in February but fell dramatically to 89.1 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 11.9-point drop represented the largest monthly fall in consumer sentiment since 2008, during the height of the financial crisis. As consumers become less confident, they typically pull back on spending and increase savings, which tends to reduce loan growth at credit unions but increase deposits.

2,507 2,704 2,784 2,834 2,946 2,752 2,942 2,980 2,926 2,977 3,038 3,141 3,231 3,226 2,954 2,585

U.S.

Florida

M-19 A-19 M-19 J-19 J-19 A-19 S-19 O-19 N-19 D-19 J-20 F-20 M-20

U.S. Consumer Sentiment

1966 Q1=100. Source: University of Michigan

100.0

98.3

98.4

98.2 98.4

97.2

101.0 99.399.8

96.8

95.5

93.8

93.2

91.2

89.8

89.1

S&P 500 Index

Month-End Values. Source: Standard & Poors.

In order to stimulate the economy, in March, the Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds

Florida Credit Union Profile

First quarter 2020

target to a range of 0 to 25 basis points. The Federal Reserve has also engaged in additional quantitative easing, which has helped reduce long-term interest rates as well. The 10-year treasury rate fell from 1.92 percent at the end of December 2019 to 0.70 percent by the end of March, and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 3.74 percent to 3.50 percent over that same period. Nonetheless, the stock market took a significant hit in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 Index falling from 3,231 in December to 2,585 by the end of March.

Collectively, Florida's member-owned, not-forprofit depositories reported healthy membership and loan growth during the first quarter and continued strong asset quality. However, as credit unions increased loan loss provisions in anticipation of losses related to the COVID-19 pandemic, earnings have fallen significantly.

FL Membership Growth (%)

5.3 5.0

4.9

4.6

4.5

3.4

3.4

Florida credit unions reported a 0.8 percent increase in total memberships in the first quarter of 2020, a 3.2 percent annualized pace. This is slower than the first-quarter membership growth of last year, which is 1.2 percent. However, the figure is still roughly four times the rate of Florida population growth. The full-year increase was 4.5 percent. There are now 6.2 million credit union memberships in Florida.

Florida credit union loan portfolios grew 1.7 percent in the first quarter, a 6.8 percent annualized rate and faster than first quarter of 2019. Loan growth was led by first mortgages, which grew an astounding 4.3 percent in the first quarter. Commercial loans were also up (4.1 percent) as were used automobile loans (1.9 percent), but all other major loan categories fell, including other unsecured loans (-0.2 percent), HEL & second mortgages (-0.5 percent), new automobile loans (-0.9 percent), and credit cards (-1.1 percent).

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

FL CU Loan & Savings Growth Rates (%)

12.4

10.3

10.6

11.7

10.8

10.5

11.2

11.7 11.2

8.4

8.1

6.6 5.9

4.7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

Loan Growth

Savings Growth

Looking forward, expect very weak loan portfolio growth in the second quarter against a backdrop of typical seasonal weakness and the growing COVID-19 crisis. CUNA economists expect loan growth to decelerate from an annual 6.5 percent pace in 2019 to 6.0 percent in 2020 and 5.0 percent in 2021. Despite the severity of the current recession, relatively low interest rates and a strong housing market continue to buttress mortgage lending at credit unions, which make up roughly half of credit union loan portfolios. Nonetheless, other loan categories are likely to experience stagnant or negative growth.

At 4.7 percent, Florida credit union savings growth was strong in the first quarter, reflecting an increase in precautionary savings as well as tax refunds. Share drafts increased 28.3 percent,

Florida Credit Union Profile

First quarter 2020

while certificates of deposit (CDs) grew 2.4 percent, individual retirement accounts and regular shares rose 1.0 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. On the decline during the first quarter were money market accounts (MMAs) (-3.9 percent). Against a backdrop of steeply declining equity markets and anxiety related to the global COVID-19 pandemic, CUNA's baseline forecast has credit union savings rising rapidly with total balances expected to increase 17.0 percent in 2020 and 8.0 percent in 2021.

Florida credit union full-year loan and savings growth were 11.7 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. The overall Florida credit union loan-share ratio fell from 82.4 percent as of yearend 2019 to 80.1 percent as of March 2020. As the pandemic recession deepens and savings growth increases--due to both precautionary savings and fiscal stimulus--the loan-share ratio will continue to fall to 76.0 percent by year-end 2020 and 73.9 percent by the end of 2021 nationally. This trend improves liquidity, but credit unions will struggle to lend due to the recession and protracted recovery.

Asset quality remained relatively strong in the first quarter of 2020. Florida credit union loan delinquency rates fell from 0.50 percent to 0.39 percent, while net chargeoffs decreased slightly from 0.61 percent to 0.56 percent. Bankruptcies increased modestly, with bankruptcies per thousand credit union members rising from 1.4 at the end of 2019 to 1.6 in the first quarter of 2020. CUNA economists expect the credit union delinquency and charge-off rates to rise to 1.50 percent and 0.75 percent, respectively, by the end of 2020 as the recession continues and unemployment remains high.

FL CU Asset Quality (%)

5.0

1.4

1.21

1.2

4.0

0.91

1.0

3.0

0.74 0.67

0.8

0.57

2.0

0.50

0.6

0.39

1.0 0.75 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.55 0.56 0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

60+ Day Dollar Delinquency (right)

The combination of near zero market interest rates and a substantial increase in loan loss provisions has led to significantly

FL CU ROA Trends

bp of Average Assets

lower earnings at credit unions. Florida

credit union ROA fell from 100 basis points

88

100 93

in 2019 to just 63 basis points in the first

79

73

70

quarter of 2020. Expect earnings to fall

63

further as the recession continues and

unemployment remains elevated.

However, earnings will be buttressed

slightly by strong mortgage refinancing

and an increase in fees from mortgage

sales to the secondary market. CUNA economists expect ROA to fall to 0.35

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

percent by year-end 2020, a significant

decline from 0.93 percent ROA in 2019 but well above the Great Recession low of 0.18 percent

Florida Credit Union Profile

First quarter 2020

in 2009. In 2021, earnings will fall even further to 0.10 percent as losses mount, and interest rate margins remain extremely tight, limiting returns on loan portfolios and investments.

Reduced earnings and fast asset growth led to a declining net worth ratio during the first quarter of 2020. The net worth ratio of Florida fell from 12.2 percent to 11.7 percent during the three-month period. Expect the net worth ratio to fall further as earnings fall and asset growth increases. CUNA economists forecast an overall credit union net worth ratio of 10.0 percent at the end of 2020, and 9.5 percent by year-end 2021. Nonetheless, in March, 98.1 percent of credit unions were well capitalized with net worth ratios over 7.0 percent. Credit unions are in generally good financial shape entering the current economic crisis and most should have the wherewithal to continue to serve in meaningful ways as members struggle to make it through the growing health care and financial challenges.

The current recession ended the longest economic expansion since 1854. Given that most stay-at-home orders started in March and lasted through May or June, we expect a significantly larger contraction in the second quarter of -35.0 percent GDP growth (annualized). That would represent the steepest quarterly decline in GDP on record. The economic recovery that began as states opened up in May and early June is stalling due to a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.

Economic growth is likely to remain muted during the fall and winter months and into next year as we adjust to the new normal, which includes continued consumer caution when it comes to travel, tourism, restaurants, large events, and many other activities. Overall, we forecast a 5.3 percent fall in real GDP in 2020.

Under our baseline assumptions, economic growth will rebound relatively quickly with production and service-sector activity resuming, and pent up consumer demand driving growth in 2021. Moreover, unlike the experience in the 2007 ? 2009 financial crisis, financial markets are likely to remain intact which--combined with historically low interest rates--will further stimulate the economy. We therefore expect relatively strong growth of 4.0 percent in 2021 followed by a gradual return to the long-term sustainable growth rate of approximately 2.0 percent by 2024.

Unemployment will remain elevated throughout this year and the next. Anticipate unemployment reaching 10.0 percent by the end of 2020--which would mean 9 months of an unemployment rate that was at or higher than the peak of the Great Recession--before falling slightly to 8.0 percent by year-end 2021. This means that the U.S. economy and credit unions should prepare for a protracted recession. However, uncertainty remains high and the speed of the economic recovery depends largely on the path of the virus and whether it is controlled relatively quickly, either by a vaccine or other means.

While no credit union is immune, those serving members on the frontlines, members employed by affected industries and members of the most vulnerable populations (especially women, low-income families and people of color)--as well as smaller credit unions with less diversified loan portfolios--will be most affected by the downturn. However, most credit unions have strong balance sheets and are well-capitalized enough to manage the crisis and continue to serve their members.

Florida Credit Union Profile

First Quarter 2020

Overview by Year

Demographic Information Number of CUs Assets per CU ($ mil) Median assets ($ mil) Total assets ($ mil) Total loans ($ mil) Total surplus funds ($ mil) Total savings ($ mil) Total memberships (thousands)

Growth Rates (%) Total assets Total loans Total surplus funds Total savings Total memberships

% CUs with increasing assets

Earnings - Basis Pts. Yield on total assets Dividend/interest cost of assets Net interest margin Fee & other income Operating expense Loss Provisions Net Income (ROA) with Stab Exp Net Income (ROA) without Stab Exp

% CUs with positive ROA

Capital Adequacy (%) Net worth/assets

% CUs with NW > 7% of assets

Asset Quality Delinquencies (60+ day $)/loans (%) Net chargeoffs/average loans (%) Total borrower-bankruptcies Bankruptcies per CU Bankruptcies per 1000 members

Asset/Liability Management Loans/savings Loans/assets Net Long-term assets/assets Liquid assets/assets Core deposits/shares & borrowings

Productivity Members/potential members (%) Borrowers/members (%) Members/FTE Average shares/member ($) Average loan balance ($) Employees per million in assets

Structure (%) Fed CUs w/ single-sponsor Fed CUs w/ community charter Other Fed CUs CUs state chartered

U.S. CUs

Mar 20 5,305 312.4 37.5

1,657,043 1,137,468

446,885 1,392,166

122,736

8.7 6.9 13.1 8.1 3.4 71.3

381 86

296 126 316

53 53 53 80.4

11.0 98.1

0.63 0.57 218,928 41.3

1.8

81.7 68.6 33.5 15.1 49.5

3 58 387 11,343 15,966 0.19

11.4 17.5 32.4 38.7

Florida CUs

Mar 20 129

597.0 101.5 77,009 53,338 19,889 66,346 6,176

9.8 11.7

4.2 11.2

4.5 77.5

367 75

291 146 330

45 63 63 76.7

10.6 97.7

0.39 0.56 9,720 75.3

1.6

80.4 69.3 29.5 15.8 54.5

2 58 373 10,743 14,890 0.22

5.4 15.5 27.9 51.2

Earnings, net chargeoffs, and bankruptcies are year-to-date numbers annualized. Due to significant seasonal variation, balance sheet growth rates are for the trailing 12 months. US Totals include only credit unions that are released on the NCUA 5300 Call Report file.

Source: NCUA and CUNA E&S.

Florida Credit Union Profile

First Quarter 2020

Overview: State Trends

Demographic Information Number of CUs Assets per CU ($ mil) Median assets ($ mil) Total assets ($ mil) Total loans ($ mil) Total surplus funds ($ mil) Total savings ($ mil) Total memberships (thousands)

Growth Rates (%) Total assets Total loans Total surplus funds Total savings Total memberships

% CUs with increasing assets

Earnings - Basis Pts. Yield on total assets Dividend/interest cost of assets Net interest margin Fee & other income Operating expense Loss Provisions Net Income (ROA) with Stab Exp Net Income (ROA) without Stab Exp

% CUs with positive ROA

Capital Adequacy (%) Net worth/assets

% CUs with NW > 7% of assets

Asset Quality Delinquencies (60+ day $)/loans (%) Net chargeoffs/average loans (%) Total borrower-bankruptcies Bankruptcies per CU Bankruptcies per 1000 members

Asset/Liability Management Loans/savings Loans/assets Net Long-term assets/assets Liquid assets/assets Core deposits/shares & borrowings

Productivity Members/potential members (%) Borrowers/members (%) Members/FTE Average shares/member ($) Average loan balance ($) Employees per million in assets

Structure (%) Fed CUs w/ single-sponsor Fed CUs w/ community charter Other Fed CUs CUs state chartered

U.S.

Mar 20 5,305 312.4 37.5

1,657,043 1,137,468

446,885 1,392,166

122,736

8.7 6.9 13.1 8.1 3.4 71.3

381 86

296 126 316

53 53 53 80.4

11.0 98.1

0.63 0.57 218,928 41.3

1.8

81.7 68.6 33.5 15.1 49.5

3 58 387 11,343 15,966 0.19

11.4 17.5 32.4 38.7

Mar 20 129

597.0 101.5 77,009 53,338 19,889 66,346 6,176

9.8 11.7

4.2 11.2

4.5 77.5

367 75

291 146 330

45 63 63 76.7

10.6 97.7

0.39 0.56 9,720 75.3

1.6

80.4 69.3 29.5 15.8 54.5

2 58 373 10,743 14,890 0.22

5.4 15.5 27.9 51.2

Florida Credit Unions

2019 129

573.9 99.9

74,036 52,440 17,965 63,396

6,126

2018 132

507.5 89.1

66,984 47,144 16,674 56,410

5,840

2017 134

468.1 83.7

62,723 42,671 17,052 53,264

5,581

2016 141

416.6 78.4

58,734 38,524 17,352 49,956

5,395

10.5

6.8

6.8

8.7

11.2

10.5

10.8

11.7

7.7

-2.2

-1.7

2.3

12.4

5.9

6.6

8.1

4.9

4.6

3.4

3.4

77.5

69.7

80.6

87.2

379

355

330

323

75

53

45

45

304

302

286

279

170

169

167

172

336

332

330

344

38

46

45

37

100

93

79

70

100

93

79

70

88.4

89.4

91.8

85.8

10.8

11.0

10.8

10.7

98.4

97.7

99.3

97.9

0.50 0.55 8,864 68.7

1.4

0.57 0.60 8,048 61.0

1.4

0.67 0.62 7,130 53.2

1.3

0.74 0.64 6,695 47.5

1.2

82.7

83.6

80.1

77.1

70.8

70.4

68.0

65.6

29.5

28.2

28.0

28.1

14.2

13.8

14.3

14.8

52.6

55.8

55.8

54.3

2 59 375 10,349 14,613 0.22

3 58 380 9,660 13,849 0.23

3 58 380 9,544 13,166 0.23

3 55 375 9,260 12,931 0.25

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.7

15.5

18.2

19.4

19.1

27.9

26.5

26.9

27.7

51.2

50.0

48.5

47.5

2015 150

360.1 68.2

54,019 34,501 16,956 46,219

5,215

8.5 10.6

4.7 8.4 5.0 82.0

327 45

282 175 351

32 73 73 80.7

10.9 96.7

0.91 0.65 7,434 49.6

1.4

74.6 63.9 29.7 15.6 53.4

3 53 371 8,862 12,409 0.26

6.7 18.0 28.7 46.7

2014 156

319.1 62.0

49,783 31,207 16,198 42,632

4,965

5.3 10.3 -3.9

4.7 5.3 76.3

333 45

288 182 354

28 88 88 84.0

11.0 98.1

1.21 0.75 8,621 55.3

1.7

73.2 62.7 32.7 14.4 51.3

3 53 367 8,587 11,939 0.27

6.4 19.2 28.8 45.5

Earnings, net chargeoffs, and bankruptcies are year-to-date numbers annualized. Due to significant seasonal variation, balance sheet growth rates are for the trailing 12 months. US Totals include only credit unions that are released on the NCUA 5300 Call Report file.

Source: NCUA and CUNA E&S.

Florida Credit Union Profile

First Quarter 2020

Loan and Savings Growth Trends

Growth Rates (%)

10.3

10.6

11.7

10.8

10.5

12.4 11.2

11.211.7

8.4

8.1

6.6

5.9

4.7

2014

2015 2016 Loan Growth

2017 2018 2019 Mar 20 Savings Growth

Credit Risk Trends

Asset Quality (%)

5.0 1.21

1.4

4.0

0.91

1.2 1.0

3.0 2.0

0.74 0.67 0.57 0.50 0.39

0.8 0.6

1.0

0.75 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.55 0.56

0.4 0.2

0.0

0.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

60+ Day Dollar Delinquency (right)

Earnings Trends

ROA Trends

bp of Average Assets

88

93

100

73

70

79

63

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

Liquidity Trends

Loan-to-Savings Ratio (%)

83.6

82.7

80.1

80.4

77.1 74.6 73.2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

Interest Rate Risk Trends

Long-Term Assets as a Percent of Total Assets

32.7

29.7

29.5 29.5

28.1 28.0 28.2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar 20

Solvency Trends

Net Worth Ratio Profile (%)

99.3

99.5

99.0 98.5

98.1

97.9

98.0

97.5 97.0

96.7

96.5

98.4

11.1 11.0

97.7

97.7 10.9

10.8

10.7

10.6

96.0

10.5

95.5 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.8 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4

95.0

10.3

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mar

20

NW Ratio (right)

Percent of CUs > 7% (left)

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