The Determinants of Population Growth

The Determinants of Population Growth

Literature review and empirical analysis

Alvarez-Diaz, Marcos D'Hombres Beatrice Ghisetti, Claudia Pontarollo, Nicola Dijkstra, Lewis

2018

JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, 2018/10

This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission's science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.

Contact information Name: Beatrice D'Hombres Address: Via E. Fermi 2749, TP 361, Ispra (VA), I-21027, Italy Email: Beatrice.DHOMBRES@ec.europa.eu Tel.: +39 033278-3537

JRC Science Hub

JRC112628

PDF

ISBN 978-92-79-93404-9 ISSN 2467-2203 doi: 10.2760/513062

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018

? European Union, 2018

The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Reuse is authorised, provided the source of the document is acknowledged and its original meaning or message is not distorted. The European Commission shall not be liable for any consequence stemming from the reuse. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.

All content ? European Union, 2018

How to cite this report: Alvarez Diaz, M., D`hombres, B., Ghisetti, C., Pontarollo, N. and Dijkstra, L., The Determinants of Population Growth, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2018, ISBN 978- 92-79-93404-9, doi:10.2760/513062, JRC112628

All images ? European Union, 2018

Acknowledgements

The authors greatly acknowledge Michaela Saisana and the Competence Centre on Composite Indicators and Scoreboards (CC-COIN) of the Joint Research Centre for their useful comments and suggestions. We also thank LUISA team of the Joint Research Centre, in particular Carlo Lavalle, Filipe Batista and Chris Jacobs-Crisioni, for sharing data that are used in the empirical analysis. Marina Ferent-Pipas is also acknowledged for her assistance at the early stage of this project. Authors Marcos Alvarez-Diaz Beatrice D'Hombres Claudia Ghisetti Nicola Pontarollo Lewis Dijkstra

3

Abstract

This report studies population dynamics in Europe. Its purpose is threefold. First, the report offers a literature review of the main drivers of population growth. Second, an empirical analysis is carried out in order to unveil the determinants of population growth in EU sub-regions (NUTS3 level) over the period 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is employed to account for spatial dependence among neighbouring regions. Third, the existing evidence on the long-run relationship between economic and population growth is discussed, followed by an empirical assessment of the relationship between these two aggregates in Europe over the period 1960-2010. Time-series econometric tools are used for this analysis. The main findings of both the litterature reviews and empirical analyses are discussed, along with their implications and future extensions. Keywords: population dynamics; population growth; spatial econometrics; time-series econometrics; spatial dependence; regional development

4

Contents

List of tables ....................................................................................................................... 6 List of figures......................................................................................................................7 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 8 2 Determinants of population growth: Literature review and preliminary empirical analysis ....... 10

2.1 Literature review .................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 Which countries are covered in the literature? ................................................... 10 2.1.2 What is the unit of analysis commonly used in the literature?.............................. 11 2.1.3 What are the main econometric or statistical methods used in the literature? ........ 13 2.1.4 What are the main determinants of population growth? ...................................... 15

2.2 Preliminary empirical analysis: Determinants of population growth in Europe at regional level, NUTS3 level, 2000-2010 ....................................................................................... 29

2.2.1 Data ............................................................................................................ 30 2.2.2 Model description........................................................................................... 30 2.2.3 Empirical results ............................................................................................ 36 2.3 Conclusions and future further research avenues........................................................ 45 3 Long run relationship between population growth and economic growth: Literature review and preliminary empirical evidence ............................................................................................ 48 3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................... 48 3.2 Literature review .................................................................................................... 51 3.3 Preliminary empirical analysis: population growth and economic development, EU28, 19602010 ........................................................................................................................... 56 3.4 Conclusion and future research avenues.................................................................... 64 4 Discussion and conclusive remarks.................................................................................. 66 References ....................................................................................................................... 68 Appendix A ? Summary of the papers (in alphabetical order) .................................................. 74 Appendix B ? Tables with the reviewed papers (in alphabetical order) ...................................... 91

5

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download