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Iran and the Middle East after the US withdraw of the Iran-DealThe current Trump Administration has withdrawn in May 18th 2018 the United States from the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA), also known as “Iran Deal”, between Iran and the G5+1. The agreement which was signed by the Obama Administration in 2014 was seen as a major step to reduce the hostile relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States. The lecture will focus on Israel, the EU, Saudi-Arabia and Iran. Actors like Turkey play a minor role in the conflict between the United States and Iran. Turkey while a member of NATO, often works more independent and clashing with the foreign policy by Washington. For example Ankara supports in the 2019 crisis in Venezuela, the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro, against the US and the EU who recognize the claim of opposition leader Juan Guaido. Also Turkey still cooperates close with Iran despite of new US Sanctions with Iran, and even getting spared by US Sanctions by the Trump Administration. In most of the direct impact by the termination of the deal Russia works close with Iran and Syria. Russia and the United States clash also in many theatre against each other like the Ukraine or by undermining the EU and NATO. So to understand the Russian strategy it is not possible to understand them just by focusing on the Middle East alone. Rising Great Powers like India and China still have not (yet) enough power projection at the Gulf. Even this will change the next decades. Israel and the termination of the Iran-DealFor Donald Trump the termination of JCPOA was a major promise in his campaign for becoming US President. His support of Israel and the position of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who was hostile to the Deal and attacked President Obama for the ?Iran Deal“ was a major issue. The US-Israeli relations were seen bad shape during the Obama Administration. The Prime Minister of Israel even took part at a joint meeting of US Congress in 2015 by invite of the Republicans and end the neutrality of Israeli government to influence in party politics in the US. Even US Intel Chiefs directly contradicting President Donald Trump, U.S. intelligence agencies told Congress on January 29th 2019, that North Korea is unlikely to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, that the Islamic State group remains a threat and that the Iran nuclear deal is working. Which is the opposite of the actual claims by US President Donald Trump about these topics in Foreign Policy. Israel sees Iran as a major threat for its security, even both do not share a direct border. But the Islamic Republic of Iran is barely interested in taking direct actions against Israel and is barely using direct serious military moves against Israel, and the Statements by the Iranian leaders are mostly vague and creating and vague long-term vision that one day “the Holy Land will be free again” – and seeking parallels to the time of the Crusades when it took centuries until the Crusader States finally collapsed and were terminated, the Iranian government uses that historical example when they explain in their political Agenda the State of Israel. The most quoted term that Israel “should be wiped out of the map”, is false as the Washington Post already pointed out in 2011. Iran wants the return of the Palestinian refugees back to Israel and wants a referendum in favour of the future idea of the Jewish state. Even the end result would of course be dangerous of the Jewish identity of Israel, Iran did not used that phrase to create a legitimacy for direct active push into Israel.During the period of being president-elect the political journal Foreign Policy pointed out that, the new administration could adopt a more aggressive enforcement posture towards foreign companies re-entering Iranian markets in ways that violate U.S. sanctions. Also they could use the US-Dollar as a tool against the Islamic Republic of Iran by cutting off Iran’s access to the dollar will make it more difficult for the Islamic Republic to finance investment in the country and will put additional pressure on its economy in ways that could be used to bargain for additional concessions. Even the Israeli government is pleased by the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem and many in Israel had and have high hope in the Trump Administration, the other country which population sees the winning of Donald Trump positive was Russia, Shalom Lipner nonresident senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, wrote in Foreign Affairs that Russia’s triumphant return to the Middle East as the foremost patron of Syrian leader Bashar alAssad, who is also supported by Israeli nemeses Iran and Hezbollah, has thrown Jerusalem and Moscow together. Because of the close proximity of Israeli and Russian forces, the two have had to work together on deconfliction, but by no means are the two entering a new era of blind trust or convergence of purpose. Enter Trump, whose fascination with Russia appears to pose a strategic problem for Israel in its home region. Also that Israel’s government mostly ignore the statements by the Trump administration on racial issues and their admiring for white-supremacist, Israeli officialdom cringed at the images and words generated by the Charlottesville affair. Here too, Trump’s comportment was a liability, forcing the Netanyahu government to tread lightly. For Israel the termination of the Iran-Deal is a signal that the US will act in a more aggressive line against Iran. Tel Aviv wants to see a rollback of Iran, and Prime Minister Netanyahu called? the Deal between Iran and the G5+1 in a first reaction in 2014 a "capitulation" and "a bad mistake of historic proportions" even he faced crisis for his statement inside Israel. The termination of the Deal by the Trump Administration in 2018 was in opposite hailed by the PM of Israel and called it “brave”, even while the Security leaders of Israel are split on the termination by the US and called the US be part of a broader effort in ending the Iranian nuclear program. Also by lacking a debate that Iran is leading a victorious policy in the Middle East, retired Israeli senior Defence Ministry official Major-General Amos Gilad commented the US decision. The major problem Israel is facing, is by winning the Syrian civil war by the “Axis of Resistance” Iran, Syria and Hezbollah backed by Russia– while Iraqi Shia Militias and the Houdis in Yemen are sometimes also considerate as part of the Axis. After the Israeli attacks on Iranian targets in Syria in January 2019 less then one hour before the attack the Russians tipped the IRGC to evacuate their command and control bases, as Senior Political Risk Analyst Elijah J. Magnier pointed out. In the aftermath of the attacks Iran told Moscow it will spread its command posts all over Syria to avoid further easy attacks by Israel. This forced Russia to inform Israel to stop future attacks in Syria. Because the Russian forces would be sitting in a crossfire if Israel start a conflict with Syria and Iran on Syrian Soil.Even that Hezbollah and the Axis would rather avoid a new conflict with Israel and the US but if Israel would start to strike harder against targets of the Axis in Syria it could escalate quickly into a wider war in the Middle East and the Levant, if the Prime Minister of Israel need to show political and military strength ahead of the election in Israel he added. Which would maybe drives the US directly into this conflict and trigger also the conflict between Saudi-Arabia and its allies against the Axis.Even with the termination of the Iran Deal, the Islamic Republic still ignores the demand by the United States and Israel to back down in Syria and Iraq, so the interests of the United States and its Sunni Allies and also by Israel will be saved and the pre-Iraqi war dominance of the Sunni in the region will be restored. The termination of the deal has in fact increased the activity by Iran and the Axis to end IS and restore the control by the Syrian government in its country. In the Aftermath of the decision by the Trump Administration to withdraw from the Agreement, the Iranian Al Quds forces fired rockets into Israel, which was reported by CNN the first time ever that Iranian forces attacked directly armed forces of Israel. Leaving the US Sunni allies weaken while Iranian and Syrian forces earned much battle and combat experience and adapting and testing their doctrines for future conflicts. While the lobbying effort by the government of Israel to terminate the Iran-Deal by the Trump Administration has putting them into conflict with the other powers who have guaranteed the Agreement. The end of The Deal and the EU Even the US withdrawn of JCPOA and the threat by US Ambassador in Germany Richard Grenell told the told The Jerusalem Post in November 2018, that the US government will contemplate sanctions against French and German entities that seek to evade sanctions on Iran’s clerical regime, who created tensions between Germany and the US before, while he was claiming to boost anti-european movements in the EU and German politicians called that the United States should withdraw Grenell in May 2018. Still his remarks about the domestic affairs of Germany and the EU fits into the common agenda by the Trump government which try to use the economic power of the United States to force European companies to choose between doing business in the United States or if they want being active in Iran. These actions by Washington forces the EU who are guaranteeing JCPOA because France, the UK and Germany are part of the agreement with Iran to protect its companies and to act against the US if they do not want to see their diplomatic reputation and soft power being under threat in the Middle East. As a result the EU has activated the Blocking Statue to protect JCPOA. The updated Blocking Statute which was launched by the European Commission in June 2018, is part of the European Union’s support for the continued full and effective implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Blocking Statute allows EU operators to recover damages arising from the extra-territorial sanctions within its scope from the persons causing them and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court rulings based on them. It also forbids EU persons from complying with those sanctions, unless exceptionally authorised to do so by the Commission in case non-compliance seriously damages their interests or the interests of the Union.The blocking statute forces a clash of interests between the EU and the current US government, because it uses the economic power of the EU to challenge one main agenda of the current Middle East policy of Washington. This step by the EU as reaction is critical for the European Union to still taken serious as an international actor and player in foreign policy. A stepdown of the EU in this conflict would challenge the position and the standing of soft power by the EU and would weaken the post Brexit EU who has gain since Brexit more leverage in creating a common foreign and security policy. Also the war in the Ukraine which forces the EU to act more and more together, while NATO might be under threat because US President Trump is challenging the NATO membership of the United States, the EU is forced to take their security interests into their own hands. Even NATO and the EU are two different organisations, because many EU members are members of NATO too or closely cooperating with NATO an end of NATO would create a serious security issue for the EU and its member states. To accept the US policy and the violation of the multinational JCPOA agreement, and also the lack of protection by the EU for European companies would trigger a fundamental crisis for the EU and its member states, because they would not be able to protect its core national interests anymore. The statements by the US ambassador in September and November 2018 and the reaction of the EU on the termination of JCPOA in June by the Trump Administration in 2018, still let for example German companies choose to leave Iran and to terminate business in Iran. The Handelsblatt reported in September 2018, that German companies bend to US sanctions, even while the EU has activated the blocking statute. Even while in September as reaction to a similar tweet by Richard Grenell that German companies have to leave Iran and cut businesses in the country, the reactions were at first furious in Germany the Handelsblatt reported in May 2018 and German companies will stay in Iran as long the German government will not interfere or blocking any business by German companies in Iran.The paradox between telling that the German industry will stay in Iran and asking for help by the German government and after getting this help by the EU in the blocking statute and still leaving Iran in fear of US sanctions and threats for the US business by these companies has created a humiliation for the EU and the German government by German and European companies. The European and German industry has get into the crossfire between the national interests of Germany and the EU and their own business interests. In leaving Iran they created even it is legitimate for their business interests and shareholders, they send a signal to Berlin and Brussels they might be “disloyal in a time of crisis” especially in times where “national pride and security policy” are glued back together by the Trump Administration and so Washington will see this as a core weakness of German and EU foreign policy. This interpretation might be leverage for the United States during the current Trump Administration to weaken the EU, while the EU has to react to internal threats by right-winged movements and governments supported by foreign powers like Russia. When countries get targeted in their core security interests and are faced with a crisis which could force them to choose to national survival and France and Germany have historical linked the EU to their national survival after the lesion of two world wars, business interests even big parts of population in many countries see them falsely as one main agenda for political acting, could face much trouble on the long-term which could get impact if European business have to need the EU while they face state-controlled companies backed by China or other new rising nations and markets. Saudi-Arabia and the Gulf States since the end of the Deal Saudi-Arabia and the Sunni Gulf States were hostile towards the Iran-Deal. Especially Crown Prince of Saudi-Arabia Mohammed bin Salman needs to prove himself as a strong ruler to secure his transition on the throne of Saudi Arabia. Since 2015 he was Defence Minister of Saudi Arabia and deposed former Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef in on June 21st, 2017 becoming new Crown Prince of Saudi-Arabia. While he arrested his rivals, he started to attack Yemen in 2015 to claim to stop the Iranian Influence the country Saudi-Arabia is facing by the rise of the mostly Shiite Houthi movement. Saudi-Arabia turns his foreign policy into a more active role, since the Iran Deal because they fear they can not trust the United States and the Obama Administration anymore since the Iran Deal. The government of Saudi-Arabia is a harsh critic of that Deal and lobby against it. US president Trump did his first state visit as new president to Saudi-Arabia. Since the end of the deal Saudi-Arabia is pushing even more against Iran, now they restored the close relationship with the United States. Even while the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018 and while the Trump Administration is refusing to act against Saudi-Arabia has caused a bipartisan uproar in the US Congress, shaking the foundations of the close American-Saudi relationship with calls for suspension of military sales.Even Saudi-Arabia wanted to send with the Intervention in Yemen and the murder of Jamal Kashoggi that they are willing to take their security issues into their own hands, if the United States will not support them fighting the rising influence by Iran, they force the Trump Administration which is interested into close ties with Saudi-Arabia to accept their policy. This “test of loyalty” by Saudi-Arabia and the refusal by the Trump Administration to react to the killing of the Washington Post journalist, let both Administration getting closer, even while the Trump Administration and Saudi-Arabia are getting a serious blown of their reputation by most of the traditional policy makers in Washington. The rift by the Trump Administration creating alliances just of common interests and less on common values is a major rift in the policy of the United States since the end of the Cold War. It also could encourage Saudi-Arabia in taking a more active role in trying to roll back the Iranian influence Tehran achieved by the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Crown Prince Salman could seek also to present himself as a new and strong leader by taking the fight with Iran on a more direct level if the Axis of Resistance will achieve their main goals in Syria. While he needs to be certain that the Trump Administration will support him in a future direct conflict with Iran. Barely anything has changed since the termination of the Iran-Deal by the United States for Saudi-Arabia. The country was lobbying with successful effort to terminate the agreement by the Trump Administration and has ended the first steps between Iran and the United States to create a new relationship after their diplomatic and political ice-age since the Revolution in 1979. Saudi-Arabia could start a war with Iran if the Axis might be able to end the civil war in Syria by their own terms and while Iran has supported Iraq to liberate and defeat ISIS in Iraq, Saudi-Arabia and other Sunni supporters of ISIS are facing the backslash of their policy to contain Iran with proxy forces by just adopting the Iranian Strategy since the Iranian Revolution. The Sunni states ignored the patience and long-term building and creating commitment of Iran to its allied movement and keeping them independent at the same time. The strategy of some kind of “Zerg rush” proxies by Saudi-Arabia created in the end more trouble for the Sunnite states and getting the Axis of Resistance getting even more close together, gaining for Iran even economical benefits in a post war Syria. The push for Saudi-Arabia against Iran and even the cooperation with Israel in containing Iran, creates another Problem for the Crown Prince, while he is not able to play a major figure for the Arab public in liberating the Islamic agenda. This treats the legitimacy of Saudi-Arabia which is depended on a “pure Islamic Image” for the ruling dynasty as guardian of the Holy Places of Islam. Iran treatments Saudi-Arabia as a legitimate player for the Interests of the Islamic agenda. By creating a “trap” letting Saudi-Arabia openly cooperating with the Trump Administration who creates Symbols for the Islamic world by being close and Israel and pushing the Muslim travel ban the Islamic Republic of Iran achieved by the open cooperation between Saudi-Arabia, Israel and the United States against Iran and the other member of the Axis of Resistance and by terminating the Iran Deal by the United States, a time bomb for Saudi-Arabia and the core of the national identity of the country.Even if the Crown Prince while facing pressure by the US institutions and less the Trump Administration, and western allies for the murder and his war in Yemen, Saudi-Arabia could be forced to act even more directly against Iran. The journal Foreign Policy pointed out in 2018, that a direct war between Saudi-Arabia and Iran would be an “even fight” between both countries. While only the wild card would be if the United States would intervene into this war could gain on one side leverage for Saudi-Arabia but would also trigger a wider war which would drag most of the Middle East into it.In 2015 a group of Qatari hunters were kidnapped in Iraq. Part of the kidnapped persons were members of the Royal Family of Qatar. They were taken hostages by the Hezbollah-Brigades a Shiite military group in Iraq which is supported by Iran. Iran was able to achieve as part of a greater deal in, 2017 that Qatar paid 700 Million US-$ to Iran backed military groups in Iraq. – More importantly Iran was able to manage as a result of the kidnappings, to secure the area around the Syrian capital of Damascus.By 2015, Suleimani and his Hezbollah allies were looking for new ways to consolidate control over certain key areas near the Syrian capital: not just killing rebel fighters but expelling the Sunni civilian population that sustained and protected them. The negotiations for the return of the Qatari hostages and the close ties of Qatar to Sunni Salafist groups operating in Syria against the Syrian government, made it possible for Iran and Suleimani to make a population swap to secure the region of Damascus. It also achieved that the deal appears to have deepened the divide between the rebels and the people they claim to represent, the “New York Times” reported while the payment for the Shiite militants led Saudi Arabia who had a struggling relationship with Qatar starting a blockade against the country from 2017 until 2019. US President Trump sided directly and openly with Saudi-Arabia, while Qatar is a close ally of the United States, hosting the largest American base in the Middle East, Al Udeid Air Base. As a result of the crisis Qatar While many of these events happened before the announcement by the Trump Administration to terminate the US commitment of the “Iran-Deal”, it helps to understand how the events are linked together and why Saudi-Arabia need the US and the new-old position by the Trump Administration towards Iran to challenge the growing Iranian influence. Since the begin of the Trump Administration and since the announcement of the end of the Iran-Deal by the US, the Crown Prince of Saudi-Arabia seeks even more to counter Iran in a more aggressive way, while hoping if Iran might react too hard on attacks and strategic operations by Saudi-Arabia in the region the fear that the US is more willing to join Saudi-Arabia, even if the country will attack Iran or its allies first, the United States still will be able to support or even join an offensive war against Iran, even if Saudi-Arabia and not Washington will start it. The United States are less an active player since the Trump Administration but more a bystander who can increase the tensions in the region which by the foreign policy of the Trump Administration has limited the ability of the United States to deescalate the conflicts in the region, and even more has tied the security interest of the United States to Saudi-Arabia and its goal to start a war with or without the United States, which will have no other option to join a war with Iran, without an exit strategy for this war. The Islamic republic of Iran their stategy and Reactions of the US withdraw of the “iran-Deal”Iran is facing the transition to a new Supreme Leader in the near future. Most of the next steps in domestic policy and also in its foreign policy have to be seen under this situation. The country needs stability even reports about the Cancer of current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei are reported in US diplomatic cables leaked by Wikileaks in 2010. It will be also a Generation change for the highest political position in the current Iranian political system. Iranian leaders and also the public in Iran are well aware of this fact. The Iranian Leadership even there is not official successor for the new Supreme Leader of Iran, the Iranian Leadership will be prepared for it. Even it is hard to predict what the impacts in the near-future of the country will be. For certain the Iranian leaders are aware of the need of reforms and political change in the country to stabilize the political system. In 1989 after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini. Also the current Iranian political system is very resilient to internal and external threats. It is way more flexible for changes and able to adapt then it is expected by many in the Western world. Even if a regime change for the US would be possible, the consequences to fill the power vacuum caused by this step in Iran, would be by an article in Foreign Policy written by Stephen M. Walt in 2018, and could ending creating an even more hostile situation for the United States.The “obsession” by the Trump Administration to terminate the Deal and offering Iran a “better Deal”, gain in reaction that Supreme Leader Khamenei has disallowed President Rohani to negotiate with the Trump Administration about a new deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran sued the United States and won in 2018 at the International Court of Justice, who ordered the US to "to lift sanctions linked to humanitarian goods and civil aviation imposed against Iran." – It also forbids sanctions against companies for trading and operating in Iran, based in third parties like the EU.Even the court rules are binding it has no power to enforce them.The Iranian government announced after the termination of the deal, they would still honour the deal if the other powers who guarantee the Deal would to their steps to honour the deal too. Even Iran would now able to resume its nuclear programme. Also the termination of the Agreement caused a rift between the United States and the other powers, and make it mostly impossible to create a common front at the UN against Iran in the near future. Also since the end of the deal the Islamic Republic has now the option to restart the nuclear programme and won’t possibly facing any strong resistance on the International level, if the United States start an even more hostile and aggressive policy toward Iran. The summit between Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in 2018, have mostly send a signal that the Trump Administration accept power by other countries, if they have a nuclear arsenal. Iran achieved that the United States weaken their relationship with its European Allies which sided like many great Powers with Iran. The clash between the EU and the United States and the step in to secure the deal, leaves the economic channels and opportunities open for Iran. They still can get economic releases by partners in Asia, like India and China and the United States won’t be possible to create barriers to weaken this economic ties to energy hungry markets like India. Who are too big to fail, so that the United States cannot dangerously threaten for example the Indian economy. The moves by Saudi-Arabia supported by the United States under the Trump Administration has caused a rift between Qatar and the US. The main air base for the United States at the Gulf could get easily neutralized by Qatar itself if the government of Qatar as in return for the US reactions on the crisis, will limit the use of the base ahead of a conflict with Iran. Also on the middle and long term Qatar could even cut ties with the United States who are unwillingly to protect the country or resolve a crisis between to US allies like it happened during the crisis between Saudi-Arabia with Qatar, so Iran could win Qatar as an ally or a neutral power while limiting the United States. Even while keeping close ties to Qatar some other major rising power like India or China could become the new “protector” of Qatar in the future creating new problems for Saudi-Arabia and the United States and giving Iran new opportunities to balance the US power at the Gulf. While Iran is still commitment to the Iran-Deal, they achieve to create a greater rift between the United States and its European Allies, while NATO is already in a crisis by actions of the Trump Administration and remarks by US President Trump calling the EU an “economic foe” while he was at his trip in the United Kingdom in July 2018, will let the EU and its companies seeing US actions against their business interests in Iran as a more hostile act. While Iran is part of the Axis of Resistance and nearly helped ended the Civil War on its terms and will benefit mostly from the rebuild of the country, they are able to achieve battle experience for its troops and its allies. Transforming the Hezbollah into a bigger and more powerful military organization while the experience fighting the war side by side, helped the Axis of Resistance to coordinate their military operations and strategies for future conflicts. The Iranian government also calculate if Donald Trump will get impeached a new US President has to distance himself from Saudi-Arabia so he will be more open to concessions for Iran while having to alter his policy to gain trust for the US allies in Europe and to restore trust into honouring deals the US government has entered into. On economic terms the break of the Iran-Deal by the US got party the population and the Iranian government closer together. Also everyone inside Iran and outside is expecting some big political changes after the death of the current Supreme Leader. So most political groups and factions inside Iran are barley interested to challenge the Iranian Status quo right now. While Iran will benefit in the near future by its political and military investments it did the last years, Donald Trump achieved to break apart the US Alliances at the Gulf and the general trust of US allies. While the Crown Prince of Saudi-Arabia will risk by his actions in a Post Trump Era a more hostile or distance relationship with the United States. Iran was already prepared for this scenario, because Donald Trump said right away he wants to end the “Iran-Deal” during his campaign for US President. While weakening the US alliances to gain on the short term, like the war in Iraq by George W. Bush on the middle and long term it will help Iran to achieve more influence and power in the region. Iran was historical always the major power at the Gulf. The geography and how trade lines existed were always in favour for Iran compared with the Arab Gulf states. Chinas ambitions for its “Belt and Road Initiative” will favour Iran in the region like most times since the rise of great powers in the Region. It explains why Iran is acting passive and its activities are mostly in securing the actions they already did. Donald Trump has weaken the United States in a short term and if the United States wants to achieve anything in the Middle East again, they will need Iran more than ever while India, China and Russia will have a potential powerful and stable partner in the Region, if they wanting to challenge the US hegemony at the Gulf and the Middle East in General. The termination of the “Iran Deal” by the United States might be in the middle and long term the biggest hit for the power of the United States at the Gulf which could be similar like the Suez-Crisis for the United Kingdom and France, which showed their power and dominance in the Middle East has ended. ................
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