THE IMPACT OF WOLVES ON ELK HUNTING IN MONTANA By Steven ...

THE IMPACT OF WOLVES ON ELK HUNTING IN MONTANA

By Steven Robert Hazen

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science In Applied Economics

MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY Bozeman, Montana April 2012

?COPYRIGHT By

Steven Robert Hazen 2012

All Rights Reserved

ii APPROVAL of a thesis submitted by Steven Robert Hazen

This thesis has been read by each member of the thesis committee and has been found to be satisfactory regarding content, English usage, format, citation, bibliographic style, and consistency, and is ready for submission to The Graduate School.

Dr. Joseph A. Atwood

Approved for the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics

Dr. Wendy A. Stock

Approved for The Graduate School

Dr. Carl A. Fox

iii STATEMENT OF PERMISSION TO USE

In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master's degree at Montana State University, I agree that the Library shall make it available to borrowers under rules of the Library.

If I have indicated my intention to copyright this thesis by including a copyright notice page, copying is allowable only for scholarly purposes, consistent with "fair use" as prescribed in the U.S. Copyright Law. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this thesis in whole or in parts may be granted only by the copyright holder.

Steven Robert Hazen April 2012

iv ACKNOWLDEGMENTS

This research was made possible by the faculty in the Department of Economics at Montana State University, and through the cooperation of Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks. I would like to thank several people who guided and assisted me through the writing of this thesis. First, I would like to thank Dr. Joseph Atwood, my thesis chair, for all the work he put into this project. Dr. Atwood introduced me to the R program which allowed the development of the data used in this empirical analysis. He patiently guided me through coding sessions and provided endless advising throughout this process. Your patience and ability to relate to students truly makes you a remarkable person. Without access to your vast programming knowledge this project would not have been possible.

I would also like to thank Dr. Timothy Fitzgerald for his insight into modeling the complex system of elk and wolves throughout the state of Montana. Your ability to explain complex models helped clarify a very difficult subject for me. I'd also like to thank you for diligently reading all of my chapters and providing vital feedback. I'd like to thank Dr. Myles Watts for supporting my research efforts and providing feedback on ways to estimate this relationship.

Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for supporting me throughout this process. You have all encouraged me to continue through the hard times. I would not be here today if it wasn't for you.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................1

2. THE HISTORY AND BIOLOGY OF WOLVES ...................................................5

2.1 Wolves ...............................................................................................................5 2.2 Biology...............................................................................................................5 2.3 Reproduction......................................................................................................6 2.4 Diet.....................................................................................................................7 2.5 Hunting Tactics ..................................................................................................7 2.6 Territories...........................................................................................................9 2.7 The History of Gray Wolves............................................................................10 2.8 Reintroduction..................................................................................................12 2.9 Wolf Hunting and Funding ..............................................................................18

3. REVIEW OF RELEVANT LITERATURE ..........................................................20

3.1 Studies of Wolf Impacts on Ungulate Populations ..........................................20 3.2 Predator-Prey Behavioral Studies ....................................................................28 3.3 Studies on Predator-Prey Models.....................................................................31 3.4 Studies on Wolf Impacts on Industry...............................................................35

4. DATA ....................................................................................................................38

4.1 Hunter Harvest Surveys ...................................................................................38 4.2 Drawing Statistics ............................................................................................39 4.3 Wolf Data.........................................................................................................39 4.4 Weather Data ...................................................................................................40 4.5 Trophy Game Data...........................................................................................41 4.6 Yellowstone/Canada Distance .........................................................................42 4.7 Variable Description ........................................................................................42

5. MODELS ...............................................................................................................47

5.1 Hunting Permits ...............................................................................................47 5.2 Nickerson's Approach to Market Clearing under a Random Lottery..............55 5.3 General Model .................................................................................................56 5.4 Simplified Model .............................................................................................57

6. EMPIRICAL MODELS AND RESULTS.............................................................63

6.1 Empirical Models.............................................................................................63

vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS - CONTINUED

6.2 Wolf Population Models ..................................................................................66 6.3 Hunter Demand Models ...................................................................................67 6.4 Elk Harvest Models..........................................................................................72

7. CONCLUSION......................................................................................................77 REFERENCES CITED................................................................................................80

vii LIST OF TABLES

Table

Page

2.1 Wolves Killed by Private Citizens in Defense of Property..............................17

4.1 Southwest MT Variable Description ...............................................................44

4.2 West Central MT Variable Description ...........................................................45

4.3 Northwest MT Variable Description ...............................................................46

5.1 Montana Elk Hunting Licenses........................................................................47

5.2 Comparative Statics .........................................................................................62

6.1 Wolf Population Results by Region.................................................................68

6.2 Hunter Application Results by Region ............................................................71

6.3 Hunter Applications in Southwest and Northwest Regions with Interactions ................................................................................72

6.4 Harvest Results for Southwest and Northwest Montana with Interactions ...............................................................................75

6.5 Harvest Results for West Central Montana with Hunting District Interactions ...................................................................76

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