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Guns & Firearms 2016

Events Spike Gun Sales

• Although firearm background checks are not a 1-to-1 ratio of actual gun sales, May 2016’s checks decreased 16%, compared to May 2015; however, with the June terrorist attack in Orlando, background checks increased 23% over May’s.

• The Orlando incident, specifically, and the general concern about increasing crime and possible additional gun restrictions increased January through June 2016 background checks 18%, compared to the first six months of 2015.

• This is a welcomed trend for the industry, as the latest manufactured firearms report from the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) revealed that 2014’s 9.0 million was significantly less than the 10.8 million during 2013.

US Background Checks, 2013–January–May 2016

|Year |January–June |July–December |Total |

|2013 |7.96 million |6.85 million |14.81 million |

|2014 |6.13 million |6.96 million |13.09 million |

|2015 |6.31 million |7.93 million |14.24 million |

|2016 |6.21 million* |--- |--- |

Shooting Industry (National Instant Criminal Background Check System and National Shooting Sports Foundation), July 2016 issue *January–May

Measuring Manufacturers’ Output

• The July 2016 issue of Shooting Industry reported that Ruger was the #1 US firearms manufacturer during 2014. 2015 sales were better than 2014; and it enjoyed a 26.35% increase in net sales ($173.1 million) during Q1 2016, compared to Q1 2015.

• Smith & Wesson, #3 on the list, posted a 56.4% increase for its Q3 2016 (ending January 31) firearm division net sales ($194.7 million), compared to Q3 2015.

• Many manufacturers continue to relocate or open new facilities in “gun-friendly” states. According to 2016 analysis from WalletHub, New Hampshire, Idaho, Connecticut, Minnesota and Montana were the top 5 states dependent on the firearms industry.

Top 5 US Firearms Manufacturers, 2014*

|Manufacturer |Pistols |Revolvers |Rifles |Shotguns |Total |

|Ruger |722,029 |281,430 |706,192 |4,446 |1,714,097 |

|Remington Arms Co. |65,771 |--- |929,823 |413,535 |1,409,129 |

|Smith & Wesson Corp. |914,700 |268,722 |159,087 |189 |1,342,698 |

|SIG SAUER Inc. |433,905 |--- |43,141 |--- |477,046 |

|O.F. Mossberg/Maverick Arms |--- |--- |72,952 |371,367 |444,319 |

Shooting Industry, July 2016 issue * Latest data available

Ownership and Participation

• According to 2016 data from Statista, gun ownership in the US, as measured by the number of households owning 1 or more guns, has remained relatively steady, with 2015 ownership at 41%; 2014, 42%; 2013, 37%; and 2012, 43%.

• The Outdoor Foundation’s 2016 Participation Topline Report revealed that no outdoor activities popular with youth, 6–24, involved firearms. Among those activities youth 13–17 aspire to enjoy, shooting was the only one on any list, at #9.

• Among all age groups of adults, outdoor activities involving firearms did not appear in any of the popular, favorite or aspirational top 10 lists, although the report revealed handgun hunting increased 10% from 2014 to 2015.

Firearms, Other Shooting Products and Accessories

Purchased by Hunters, January–February 2016

|Product |Percent |Product |Percent |

|Ammunition |68.4% |Clothing and apparel |25.3% |

|Firearms |39.8% |Optics |23.1% |

|Shooting accessories |35.1% |Hand-loading equipment |21.5% |

|Hunting accessories |28.7% |Archery |10.5% |

|Firearm accessories |27.7% |Black powder |8.2% |

|Firearm storage |26.5% | | |

Southwick Associates, January–February 2016 Hunter Survey

Sighting on Industry Sectors

• According to data from Southwick Associates’ 2015 HunterSurvey and ShooterSurvey, 67% of all long-gun purchases were for rifles, with 43% of those for modern sporting rifles (MSR) and the remaining for traditional rifles.

• Southwick Associates also reported from its 2015 surveys that handguns sales exceeded $3 billion, with 77.4% semi-automatic. The average price of a handgun was $500 and 43% of all transactions occurred at independent dealers’ stores.

• The top reasons for purchasing a handgun during 2015 were informal target shooting, 75%; to test ammunition or firearm accuracy, 25%; to sight a firearm, 29%; and competitive shooting, 14%.

Primary Motivation for Shotgun Purchases, 2015

|Motivation |Percent |

|Hunting |46.3% |

|Casual shooting |18.4% |

|Competitive shooting |9.9% |

|Self-defense |13.5% |

|Collecting |8.0% |

|Gift |2.2% |

|Other |1.8% |

Shooting Industry (Southwick Associates) August 2016 issue

Where Americans Stand

• The firearms industry views the election of Donald Trump as favorable; however, the paradox remains that 81% of all Americans, according to Pew Research Center August 2016 polling, still favor background checks for private and gun show sales.

• Even Republicans and people who lean Republican favor background checks, at 78%, as well as a federal database of gun sales, 50%, and laws to prevent the mentally ill from buying guns, 79%.

• Women favor a ban on assault-style weapons, at 60%, and high-capacity ammunition clips, at 55%, compared to men, 44% and 45%, respectively. Somewhat surprisingly, less than 50% of adults 18–29 favor these bans while more than 50% of older adults do.

Gun Ownership: Protection vs. Safety Risk, 2016

|Demographic Metric |Protection |Safety Risk |

|Total, adults 18+ |58% |37% |

|Men |64% |32% |

|Women |53% |43% |

|Caucasian Americans |64% |33% |

|African Americans |46% |49% |

|Hispanic Americans |50% |46% |

|Education: high school or less |61% |35% |

|Some college |66% |30% |

|College graduate |51% |44% |

|Postgraduate |37% |59% |

|Republican/lean Republican |82% |14% |

|Democrat/lean Democrat |39% |57% |

|Gun in household |74% |22% |

|No gun in household |43% |52% |

Pew Research Center, August 2016

Additional Analysis

For firearms retailers to target hunters accurately and successfully, it’s very important they understand the hunter “churn” factor, or the number (or percentage) of people who participate or don’t participate in hunting from year to year.

According to a Southwick Associates study on behalf of the National Shooting Sports Foundation of 10 years of hunting license purchasing habits, only 13% of hunters purchased a license during each year 2006 through 2015. In addition, during any single year, as many as 22% of all hunters don’t purchase a resident hunting license and the “typical” hunter only purchases a license 2.8 times during a 5-year period.

This churn has resulted in the number of Americans hunting yearly remaining somewhat the same since 2004, at approximately 14 million.

The conclusion of this study is that the “typical” American hunter is not a fanatically dedicated, rugged and passionate sportsman, as the popular myth would lead us to believe.

The article in the November 2016 issue of Shooting Industry that reported these statistics and trend cited the well-intentioned, but poorly focused state wildlife agencies’ programs to encourage new hunters. These programs are typically a daylong or weekend event or seminar that teach interested individuals the shooting and safety skills needed to enjoy hunting. Too many of these new hunters are part of the churn. More recently, however, more state wildlife agencies are working to retain people who are already hunting, which would likely reduce the churn factor.

Another consulting firm, Responsive Management, has conducted surveys among specific groups of potential hunters to determine where the churn is specifically occurring.

• Young hunters are much less likely to renew their license the following year than the overall average, 33% among adults 18–24, compared to 22% for all adults.

• The trend is similar among women, although there are a significant number of new female hunters during recent years. Whereas, 25% of men don’t renew a hunting license the next year, 37% of women don’t.

• Suburban and urban hunters are much more likely than rural hunters to fail to renew their hunting license.

Sources: Shooting Industry Website, 12/16; WalletHub Website, 12/16; Statista Website, 12/16; Outdoor Foundation Website, 12/16; Southwick Associates Website, 12/16; Pew Research Center Website, 12/16.

Updated: December 2016

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