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Politics 2020: The Big Push BeginsHistorical Events Have Dramatically Changed Election DynamicsTypically, the reelection bid of a sitting President is based on his or her performance; however, much of what occurred since March 2020 and the subsequent pandemic period will probably be the focus of almost all political advertising after June 2020.The events and issues of the March–June 2020 period (and beyond); Joe Biden’s surge in the polls; and the many competitive Senate, House and local races compelled more than one research group to increase their political ad spending forecasts. As of early March 2020, BIA Advisory Services had increased its total estimate to $7.1 billion, compared to $6.6 billion during fall 2019. During May 2020, Advertising Analytics and Cross Screen Media increased their joint projection by 12% to $6.7 billion.How the May/June 2020 Civil Rights Protests Influenced People’s Voting Decision, June 2020Influence/ChangePercentInfluence/ChangePercentThe protests influenced my voting27%I was registered to vote, but I won’t5%The protests didn’t influence my voting73%I was not registered to vote, but I will4%I am more supportive of my candidates72%Other6%The protests changed my voting plans17%Luth Research, June 2020The Pandemic’s Effect on Campaign and Ad StrategiesThe pandemic, the protests and Joe Biden’s lead in most polls as of mid-June 2020 increased fundraising and the need for even more aggressive advertising. As of mid-June 2020, the Republicans had $265 million and the Democrats $122.2 million in cash.Campaigns at all levels had more difficult paths to tread, as various events created a long list of possible (and very disruptive) scenarios for the last few months of the campaign cycle. As of mid-May 2020, a total of $2.19 billion had already been spent.Campaigns are also faced with the challenges of staff working remotely, the Democrats considering a virtual convention, the Republicans changing their convention location, more voters staying at home and limited rallies and other events.Changes in Voter Enthusiasm, by Party Identification, 2019–2020Survey DatesRepublicans/LeanersDemocrats/ LeanersOct. 14–31, 201966%65%Jan. 16–29, 200068%61%Feb. 17–28, 200064%58%April 14–28, 200062%54%Gallup, May 2020TV and Local News Attract Big AudiencesTV has always been the primary political ad medium, and is again for 2020. Of BIA’s updated total forecast of $7.1 billion, over-the-air TV is expected to receive $3.3 billion.The pandemic, however, created a tricky landscape for political TV ad buyers. Initially, TV viewing numbers increased significantly with so many people at home, but by the end of May, viewership was returning to normal.A media analyst suggests ad buyers consider placements in or near business, industry news and health and wellness content, because their TV inventory costs were likely to remain low.Best Sources for Coronavirus Information and Updates, April 2020SourcePercentSourcePercentBroadcast TV news54%Local newspapers7%Cable TV news27%Radio stations6%Government Websites15%All other Internet news Websites/apps5%Social media12%Cable TV news Websites/apps3%Broadcast TV news Websites/apps7%National/Local newspapers Websites/apps3%National newspapers7%Radio station Websites/apps1%TVB/Dynata (survey of more than 10,000 persons 18+ in 10 states), April 2020Digital Media Is a MustAccording to various updated forecasts, $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion will be allocated for political ad spending on digital media. While TV’s value for political campaigns is its massive reach, digital messages target smaller audiences very passionate about specific issues.Unsurprisingly, Facebook and Google’s combined share of all political ad revenues for the 2019/2020 election cycle was estimated, during February 2020, to be 77.6%, with Facebook receiving 59.4% ($796.8 million) and Google 18.2% ($243 million). A major issue from the 2016 election – fake news – will still plague social media for 2020, as a 2020 TVB study found 59% of respondents said fake news was most prevalent on social media, compared to just 4% for local broadcast TV stations’ Websites/apps.Type of Internet Content Consumers Prefer, February–March 2020Content TypePercentImages68%Videos50%Text-based posts30%Stories26%Polls26%Live video22%GIFs17%URLs/Links to related content16%Q&As or AMAs11%UGC10%Sprout Social, May 2020Reaching Latinx American VotersPew Research Center data indicates as many as 32 million Latinx Americans will be eligible to vote in the 2020 elections, which would be a record number. Of greater importance is the media age of the Latinx American population is 29, 10 years younger than all Americans.The April 2020 TVB/Dynata Coronavirus Media Usage Study found broadcast TV had the highest reach among Latinx Americans 18+, or 84%, with social media second at 56%, followed by radio stations 44%, cable TV 32% and newspapers 26%.Broadcast TV ranked first in all sub-categories, including 85% of Latinx Americans 18–34, but social media had the most reach for this youngest group at 65%.Reasons Latinx Americans Access Local Broadcast TV Websites/Apps for Pandemic Information, April 2020ReasonPercentI want to know the status of public/medical services, schools, businesses, etc.50%I trust the news from my local broadcast stations’ Websites/apps49%I like I can access information when I need it43%I like it stations constantly update with the latest information37%I share information from broadcast stations’ Websites/apps with family/friends35%I downloaded my local broadcast station’s app specifically because of the pandemic33%I like receiving the alerts27%I like I can access stations’ Websites/apps wherever I am23%I want to know how I can help7%TVB/Dynata (survey of approximately 1,000 persons 18+ in 10 states), April 2020Vote-By-Mail Is a Critical IssueWith many Americans still concerned about the pandemic, as of mid-June 2020, a majority (64%) favored voting by mail or absentee ballot, according to an April 14–28 Gallup poll, with those 18–29 most in favor (73%), and even 55% of those 65+.According to data, 37 states and the District of Columbia allow early voting at various dates. Five states (Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington) use a vote-by-mail system, but others are likely to allow it to reduce in-person voting.A majority of Americans, according to the Gallup poll, are concerned about fraud with more voting by mail, or “a great deal” 31% and “a fair amount” 30%. Unsurprisingly, 50% of those who identify as Republicans said “a great deal,” compared to 16% of Democrats.2020 Election Preferred Voting Methods, May 2020Method5/20/205/27/20Voting by mail44%48%Voting in person on election day32%32%I don’t plan to vote12%11%Early voting in-person12%9%Luth Research, May 2020Additional AnalysisAccording to National Public Radio (NPR) analysis as of mid-June 2020, 7 states were identified as toss-ups in the presidential election, or Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, a list likely to change between June and November.The Media Audit’s spring 2020 survey of the Pittsburgh, PA market (May–mid-June 2020) is of particular interest in terms of political party affiliation and past voting by party for three major age groups. As those affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties essentially cancel each other, those who identify as Independents are likely to swing the election in Pennsylvania (or least in Pittsburgh), as they are predicted across the country. Political Party Affiliation and Voting Past Year in Pittsburgh, PA, Spring 2020Affiliation/Past VotingAdults 18–34Adults 35–49Adults 50+PercentIndexPercentIndexPercentIndexDemocrat Party affiliation26.9%7735.2%10138.5%111Republican Party affiliation20.1%5933.4%9941.2%133Independent affiliation20.2%14412.5%8911.4%82Green Party affiliation1.4%203**0.6%91Libertarian Party affiliation3.5%2192.8%1760.1%4Voted past year, a Democrat4.3%2913.5%9220.8%141Voted past year, a Republican5.1%3210.5%6624.2%151Voted past year, an Independent2.2%554.4%1104.8%119Voted past year, a Green Party0.2%166**0.1%110Voted past year, a Libertarian0.3%611.9%369**Based on The Media Audit’s Spring 2020 Pittsburgh, PA Survey (May–June 15)*insufficient dataAlthough NPR designated Michigan as a “lean Democrat” state, President Trump won the state by very few votes during the 2016 election, so it is still very important to both parties for 2020 – and Detroit is the biggest market in the state.Political Party Affiliation and Voting Past Year by Party in Detroit, MI, Spring 2020Affiliation/Past VotingAdults 18–34Adults 35–49Adults 50+PercentIndexPercentIndexPercentIndexDemocrat Party affiliation42.4%11536.6%9934.0%92Republican Party affiliation16.6%7519.2%8627.4%123Independent affiliation14.2%6622.2%10225.7%119Green Party affiliation0.4%670.7%1140.7%112Libertarian Party affiliation3.4%1752.8%1450.6%29Voted past year, a Democrat14.4%7117.9%8825.0%124Voted past year, a Republican5.2%465.0%4418.5%164Voted past year, an Independent3.2%316.5%6317.0%163Voted past year, a Green Party0.1%460.4%2510.1%49Voted past year, a Libertarian0.5%711.5%2040.5%60Based on The Media Audit’s Spring 2020 Detroit, MI Survey (April–May 2020)*insufficient dataSources: Next TV Website, 6/20; Politico Website, 6/20; eMarketer Website, 6/20; Gallup Website, 6/20; Multichannel Website, 6/20; TVB Website, 6/20; Sprout Social Website, 6/20; Newsweek Website, 6/20; Joint Economic Council/US Senate Website, 6/20; Website, 6/20; Luth Research Website, 6/20; The Media Audit Website, 6/20.Updated: June 2020? 2020 Media Group Online, Inc. 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