ALBERT RACCIATTI, AICP
Michael G. Fusillo, Ph.D.
271 Union Street
Brooklyn, NY 11231
Cell: (646) 824-5354
Home (718) 852-7135
mfusillo@
EDUCATION
Ph.D. Economics, 2001, City University Graduate School & University Center
Fields: Applied Econometrics, Industrial Organization.
Dissertation: “Strategic Entry Deterrence: The Case of Ocean Liner Shipping.”
A.C., Applied Economic Analysis 1992, New York University.
M.A., Economics, 1990 Boston, University
B.S., Forestry, 1984, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS
International Association of Maritime Economists
American Economics Association
International Maritime Statistics Forum
Trade Data Users Group
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Freelance Economics Consultant May 2010 - Present
• Currently serving as freelance economist and international trade and infrastructure analyst. Clients include PIERS, the Journal of Commerce, The Louis Berger Group, Nathan Associates, and RK Johns.
The Louis Berger Group, Inc. 2005-2007 and 2009-2010
• Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) Economic Impact Study (Ongoing) – Task Leader. In the context or regional economic performance, oversee application of economic models and survey data collection efforts to determine economic impact of MWAA facilities and operations, including Reagan National and Dulles International Airports, the Dulles Toll road and expansion of the Metro Link system to Tyson’s Corner, Virginia. Client: Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.
• Inland and Coastal Navigation Economic Impacts – Principal Economist Currently leading efforts to determine a methodology and application for assessing the secondary or “forward linkages” of American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA) expenditures on inland and coastal navigation projects. Client: US Army Corp of Engineeers.
• Section 4(f) Implementation Study Review. Reviewed statistical methodology and results of Volpe Center study on the effectiveness of the streamlining provisions for “di mimimis” findings on Section 4(f) properties. Client: US DOT (Volpe Center)
• Chili Bar – Iowa Hill Facilities Relicensing. Project Manager. Third-party review of all fiscal impact studies, socioeconomic conditions, demand forecasts and models of property values in the Environmental Impact Statement accompanying the relicensing of the Chili Bar facility, a hydroelectric dam in the Sacramento, California area. Made recommendations regarding the methodological soundness and the robustness of the results, with particular emphasis on the construction of the Iowa Hill pumped storage facility. Client. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
• Oroville Facilities Relicensing. Project Manager. Reviewed fiscal impact studies, socioeconomic conditions, demand forecasts and models of property values in the relicensing efforts of the Oroville Facility, a hydroelectric dam located in Butte County, California. The object was to determine methodological soundness and the robustness of the results. Client. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
• Congestion Pricing Program Analysis. Project Manager. Using econometric methods devised and conducted study to evaluate the City of New York’s proposed congestion pricing program in terms of its potential impact on toll revenues at Port Authority of New York and New Jersey crossings. Client: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
• Assessment of Current Methods for Determining Rates of Motor Fuel Tax Evasion. Principal Economist. Extensive literature review and critique of methods used to assess the extent of and underlying reasons for motor fuel tax evasion and develop econometric tools to analyze evasion in the future. Client: Federal Highway Administration
• Oneida Nation Enterprise, Lands into Trust Application Fiscal Impacts- Principal Economist. Used econometric techniques to determine the fiscal impact on Madison and Oneida Counties of placing 17,000 acres of Oneida Nation land into trust. Elements included direct and indirect payments to local governments, member services, and property taxes. Client: Malcolm Pirnie, Inc., Zuckerman Spaeder, and Bureau of Indian Affairs.
• Project Management Office (PMO) Assessment – Consultant in the assessment of the organizational structure of project management at the Port of Authority of New York and New Jersey, particularly with respect to the development of the PMO and in comparison to centralized and decentralized project management. Developed qualitative interview instruments and consulted on sample choice at various levels of the PA organization. Analyzed and interpreted results and assisted in developing recommendations for the organizational structure of project management at the PA. Client: PANYNJ
• Risk Assessment Team WTC Program – On-Site Consultant to the PANYNJ providing expert risk analysis and document review support for the risk assessment team at the WTC Program in a scheduling dispute with a major stakeholder in the project. Client: PANYNJ
• Rail Freight Car Leasing Study. Principal Economist. Comprehensive study of the North American rail equipment leasing market including detailed research into the demand and supply side of the railcar leasing market, an complete assessment and forecast of domestic and international commodity movements, railcar demand, the determinants of rail car lease rates, risk and volatility. Client: Mitsubishi Corporation, Tokyo.
• U.S. Energy Services Corporation Proposal Evaluation. Principal Economist. Provided preliminary quantitative analysis of the benefits and costs associated with USESC’s energy price protection program being considered by the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority Bus Company. The evaluation focused on the relationship between energy prices and energy price volatility. Client. Fuel Solutions, Inc.
• Toll Revenue Forecast MARAV. Project Manager. Developed stated preference survey and analyzed results to determine the value of time for motorists using the toll roads connecting several states along an industrial corridor in Mexico. Client: FCC, Spain.
• Toll Revenue Forecast Model Development Program. Project Manager. Forecast of traffic and revenue at all Port Authority of New York and New Jersey crossings. Provide econometric advice and support for toll revenue forecasting and risk analysis function. Evaluated the model and recommended changes to improve its forecast accuracy. Client: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
• Harbor District Ferry Service. Project Manager. Estimates of demand, cost and supply side configuration for the proposed New York City Harbor District Ferry Service, a hop-on/hop-off system to enable increased tourist visitation to eight New York Harbor sites. Used secondary data and model results to estimate potential demand for such a service under varying assumptions about cost, consumer preferences and likely visitation. Configured an optimal routing for the ferry service using cost elements collected from regional ferry service providers. Made recommendations as to the type of service, the fare and the likely subsidy required for operations. Client. Hamilton, Rabinowitz and Alschuler, for NY Economic Development Corporation, New York, NY
• PANYNJ, Newark International Airport Hotel Study, New Jersey. Project Manager. Developed a multi-equation econometric model to project demand, room rates and occupancy for an airport terminal hotel at Newark International Airport. Determined the relationship between air passengers and hotel demand and provided statistical evidence of a premium associated with the terminal location.
• Governor’s Island Ferry Service. Project Manager. Provided estimates of the capacity of a ferry service required to clear Governor’s Island in New York Harbor of potential events-related visitors. Estimated likely time to clearance including queues at the ferry terminals and at a proposed jitney service to bus event-goers to each ferry landing on the island. Client. Hamilton, Rabinowitz and Alschuler, for NY Economic Development Corporation, New York, NY
• LaGuardia Airport – Manhattan Ferry Service Feasibility Study. Project Manager. Using logistic regression methods, undertook to provide the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey with estimates of potential ridership, optimal fare structure and service frequency and vessel capacity for a proposed LaGuardia – Manhattan ferry service. Client: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
• Toll Revenue Forecast Model. Principal Economist. Provide long-term revenue forecasts and sensitivity analyses by vehicle type to assist a large European construction company in formulating their bid for the Indiana Toll Road Concession. The project relied heavily on econometric estimates of the elasticity of road travel with respect to tolling, gas prices, national income and population growth and included an analysis of the revenue potentials from congestion pricing in the urban section of the road. Client: FCC Construcción SA, Madrid
• Regional Socioeconomic Forecast Review for Texas State Highway 161. Principal Economist. Reviewed methodology and results of regional socioeconomic forecasts for the Ten-County Area surrounding Dallas Texas in order to validate traffic forecasts of proposed toll road SH161. Provided client with separate forecasts to compare with original projections to help confirm their validity. Client: Acciona, Spain.
• Knoxville, TN Hotel Market Study. Project Manager. Built structural, multi-equation econometric model to project demand for lodging services in Knoxville TN, including estimated of demand induced by increased convention center activity and the introduction of a new upscale hotel in the downtown market. Client: The Frank Haney Companies
• Modeling Options for Assessing the Economic Impact of the Appalachian Development Highway System. Principal Economist. Reviewed literature and recent advances in econometric methodology used to assess the impact of transportation projects on the development of local economies. Provided client with various alternatives with accompanying analysis of the effectiveness of each. Client: Appalachian Regional Commission.
• Birmingham, AL Hotel Market Study. Project Manager. Used econometric methods to project demand for lodging services in Birmingham, AL to assist client efforts to enter this growing market. Client: The Frank Haney Companies
• Industrial Site and Economic Development Master Plan. Principal Economist. Conduct regional economic analysis and review of Adams County, Mississippi in support of the City of Natchez industrial site master plan. Assess economic development needs of the City and County and provide advice on the viability of matching particular industries to County aspirations. Emphasis on current labor market requirements, transportation networks and potential for international trade. Client: Natchez –Adams County Economic Development Authority.
• Tlaxcala, Mexico Passenger Rail Feasibility Study. Principal Economist. Co-wrote and oversaw the implementation of an origin-destination and stated preference survey of commuters in the Apizaco, Mexico – Puebla, Mexico corridor to determine the potential ridership for a proposed light rail system. Built the mode choice model from stated preference, origin-destination, and state-level economic and demographic data to project the share of commuters likely to be captured by a new train service from each of four alternate travel modes and worked with consulting rail engineers to determine passenger distribution by time of day across several proposed train stations. Client: Nathan Associates, Washington, DC.
Halcrow Inc. 2007-2009
• NY Port Authority Strategic Business Plan Update – Task Leader for all international trade forecasting, ocean cost modeling, port efficiency comparisons and inland goods movement elements of a major strategic business plan undertaken to ensure the Port’s forward competitiveness in the container, auto and bulk markets. Client: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
• The Port of Montreal Container Market Study – Project Manager. Managed all elements of a multidimensional study to assess and forecast the container handling infrastructure requirements at the Port of Montreal. The elements included the Port’s competitive position relative to US East Coast ports and the Port of Halifax, the likely evolution of containership technology and design and the forecast of vessel capacity by size class, a comprehensive view of current and forecast container trade, macroeconomic forecasts for Canada, the US, and the world, and an in-depth view of the hinterlands associated with the Port of Montreal and its designated competitors. Client: Montreal Port Authority.
• Muchke Bay/ Vanino Port Pre-Feasibility Study –Principal Economist. Provided initial assessment of the feasibility of constructing a coal, iron ore and timber terminal at the Port of Vanino on Russia’s Far East Coast. Accounting for commodity trade forecasts, landside and dockside infrastructure requirements, vessel movements and deployments and competition from other ports along the coast of the Russian Far East, advised client on the value of moving forward with a full feasibility study of the project. Client Confidential.
• Thames Water Stated Preference Peer Review – Reviewed methodology, econometric estimation and results of a stated preference survey designed to illicit customer willingness to pay for various improvements to the water system around London. Client: Halcrow, London.
• Project Pear – Econometric models, forecasts, level of service constraints and risk analysis of traffic and revenue to support client bid for the Spanish assets of a major European toll road operator. Client CitiInfrastructure.
• Project Dojo – Chicago On-Street Metered Parking – Peer review of comprehensive study of Chicago’s on-street metered parking market in support of a bid for those assets. Client: Macquarie.
• McGill University Parking Demand Study – Estimates of parking demand and required space need to accommodate staff and visitors to a large planned, consolidated hospital complex run by McGill University. Client: SNC Montreal
• Port of Barranquilla, Colombia Market Analysis and Cargo Forecast – Principal Economist. Cargo forecast and analysis for the Port of Barranquilla with special regard to port attributes such as river depth to assess its competitive position in the Colombian trading regime through 2020. Client: Sociedad Portuaria del Norte.
• Detroit-Windsor Tunnel. Traffic and revenue model and projections for the largest crossing between the US and Canada. Client: Goldman Sachs, New York.
• South Jersey Port Relocation Feasibility Study - Principal Economist. Provided Halcrow transport and port planners with forecasted trade by commodity through the Port of Camden New Jersey and up the Delaware River.
• Indiana Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Study - Principal Economist. Econometric model to predict long-term traffic and revenue growth for the Indiana Toll Road and the Chicago Skyway. Client: Macquarie - Cintra.
• Pennsylvania Turnpike Traffic and Revenue Study - Principal Economist. Built econometric model to predict long-term traffic and revenue growth for the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Client: Macquarie - Cintra.
PIERS 1996-2005
• Trade Horizons – Director. Quarterly, short-term forecast of US container trade by trade partner. Snapshot of Us and global macroeconomic conditions and projections. Country and commodity specific analyses.
• Ten Year Horizons – Director Annual long-term forecast of US containerized trade by trade partner. Snapshot of US and global macroeconomic projections.
• On Board Review – Director. Quarterly report on liner shipping capacity and capacity utilization. Overview of industry developments as they impact capacity deployments on US containerized trade lanes.
• Distribution of U.S. Inland Liner Cargo. Used public and private data sources to provide estimates of of the volume and trends in inland cargo distribution by rail for cargoes unloaded at U.S. West Coast ports. US ports. Client: Gem Gan Consulting, Singapore
• Ocean Liner Freight Rate Forecast. Built and used a dataset of liner shipping capacity, capacity utilization, non-contract freight rates and a host of economic and demographic variables to provide a forecast of ocean liner freight rates in U.S. trade lanes for a large financial assets management firm. Client: Farallon Capital Management, San Francisco, CA.
• Expert Witness Report and Testimony. Testified on behalf of a niche market shipping line in a dispute with a stevedoring company over a dispute regarding shipping industry standards. Client: Hamburg and Golden, Philadelphia
• European Union Review of Liner Shipping Competition. As part of the Erasmus University team, built econometric model to determine the effect of liner shipping conferences on stability of freight rates in major global trade lanes. Reviewed and summarized responses in terms of their economic content, of various European shipping/carrier associations and government transport and trade ministries to questions regarding the efficacy of liner shipping conferences in promoting stable shipping supply and freight rates. Client: The European Commission
• The Economic Viability of Widening the Panama Canal. Worked with National Institute for Ports and Waterways to assess the need for and viability of widening the Panama Canal. The analysis included long-term container trade forecasts relevant to the Canal, a deep assessment of the market structure of the liner industry, and how that structure might impact routing decisions, likely service patterns and the potential to increase routing of ships through the Panama Canal. Client: The Panama Canal Authority
• Potential for International Trade in Heavy-Lift Air Cargo. Developed market and forecast report for heavy lift cargoes to establish the potential market size for the introduction of new heavy lift aircraft (Boeing BC-17) in United States international trade. Client: Boeing Corporation.
• U.S.-Belize Container Trade Flows. Developed and wrote five-year forecast of container trade between U.S. and Belize. Identified key commodities for which Belize has comparative advantage and summarized transport and infrastructure needs required to facilitate exports of those commodities. Client: Port Authority of Belize
• U.S.-Australia Container Trade Flows. Developed and wrote five-year forecast of container trade between U.S. and Australia/New Zealand. Client: Ministry of Transport, Australia
• Expert Witness Report. Took the lead in producing an expert witness report for antitrust case involving predatory pricing in the U.S. East Coast coastal barge transport industry. Client: Paul F. Richardson Associates
Paul F. Richardson Associates 2002-2005
• The Regional Impact of East Coast Ports on the Economies of the Mid-Atlantic States. Lead Economist. Provided forecasts of U.S. liner trade through several major U.S. East Coast ports in terms of volume and value, and used these forecasts to estimate economic impact of trade on the economies of the Mid-Atlantic States of the U.S.
• Damages Assessment. Lead Economist. Provided the firm with a methodology to calculate economic damages stemming from a work slowdown at a major U.S. seaport. Client, Confidential.
• Port Fees Study: Principal Investigator: Researched various fees charged by ports for bulk, neo-bulk and wet-bulk cargoes to assist a foreign port authority in their efforts to develop a more efficient pricing system. Client: Confidential.
Reebie Associates 1995-1996
• Class I Railroad Merger Analysis. Principal Investigator. Conceptualized, developed and executed a binomial logit model to estimate the elasticity of mode shift between truck and rail in the I-5 corridor as an integral part of a larger railroad merger analysis using data from TRANSEARCH and Reebie cost models. Results were presented to the U.S. Interstate Commerce Commission and used to assess the potential for traffic diverted from U.S. West Coast highways to rail due to cost efficiencies achieved through merger of two Class I rail carriers. Client: Interstate Commerce Commission.
Skadden Arps, Slate, Meagher and Flom 1992-1994
• Price Regulation in Rural Telephone Markets. Cross-sectional analysis of ‘proxy-factor’ models under consideration by the Federal Communications Commission as a potential alternative to ‘price cap’ or ‘rate of return’ methods to determine cost subsidies for rural telephone service providers. Client: The Federal Communications Commission.
• The Shaving Cream Market: Using industry data, conducted time series analysis of demand in the market for shaving cream to determine product market separability between foam and gel-based creams to facilitate an acquisition in this sector. Client: Gillette Corporation.
• The Impact of Competitive Shopping in Big Box Retail Stores. Pooled time series (fixed and random effects) model of profit/cost margins in wholesale warehouse club industry comparing pre- and post merger margins. Client BJ Wholesale Club.
• Transport Constraints in the Roofing Materials Market. Time series analysis of regional pricing in the asphalt roofing materials industry for the purpose of geographic market definition. Client: Manville Corporation.
• How Much do First-Round Draft Picks Matter? Cross sectional analysis of the effect of draft pick rank on winning percentage in the National Hockey League for the purpose of establishing compensation rules for free agency. Client: The National Hockey League.
• NASCAR and Tobacco Sales. Cross-sectional analysis of the effects of event advertising on sales of chewing tobacco. Client: Phillip Morris
• Financial Services Trade Discounting. Undertook an extensive cross-sectional analysis of price discounts to determine whether a major investment broker was practicing differential pricing in response to a challenge by the U.S. Department of Justice. Client: Smith Barney.
• The Luxury Pen Market. An extensive study the market for luxury pens in the U.S. for the purpose of defining it as a market separate from ordinary writing instruments as part of a larger antitrust challenge to the acquisition of Watermen Pens by the Gillette Company. Client: Gillette.
• Price Fixing in the Market for High School Football Helmets: Statistical analysis of regional pricing of football helmets sold to high schools to defend against accusations of price fixing. Client: Riddell Helmets.
Atlantic Marketing Research Company, Boston, MA 1988-1990
Developed market research and public policy survey research instruments, contributed to sample methodology, provided data/statistical analysis of results and wrote and edited final reports.
The Social Policy Research Group, Boston, MA 1986-1988
Conducted public policy research with respect to services for inner city youth, emphasizing the availability and evaluation of employment and training programs in and around Boston, MA.
TEACHING EXPERIENCE
• Adjunct Asst. Prof., New York University, Courses: Intermediate Macroeconomics. Spring, 2001
• Adjunct Asst. Prof., Baruch College, Courses: Introductory Macroeconomics, Fall 2001. International Trade, Fall 2002.
• Visiting Faculty 2003-2005, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands: Occasional lectures on liner shipping economics and policy to students in Erasmus’ Maritime Economics and Logistics program
REFEREED PAPERS
• “Excess Capacity and Entry Deterrence: The Case of Ocean Liner Shipping Markets.” Maritime Economics and Logistics, Summer, 2003. Winner of Best paper at IAME 2002 Annual Conference in Panama City, Panama.
• “Is Liner Shipping Capacity Fixed?” Maritime Economics and Logistics, Fall, 2004.
• “Notes on Stability and Concentration in Liner Shipping,” Maritime Policy and Management, December, 2006.
• “Structural Conditions Underlying Mergers and Acquisitions in Liner Shipping”, Maritime Economics and Logistics, June, 2009.
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